SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

BusbyMalone

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You’ll be fine, just try not to go out. If you do have to, wash your hands for at least 20 seconds at every single opportunity. Don’t touch your face. No kissing. No shagging. No wanking as your cock could be infected with corona.
As long as you bleach your cock before and after you'll be fine
 

Prophet_of_Doom

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I think it's impossible for the statistics to be anywhere near accurate. According to local news we've had three coronavirus linked deaths in our nearby hospital. According to national statistics, there have been zero coronavirus related deaths locally. So who is right? Is it a case of Chinese whispers (absolutely no pun intended!) and a random death from pneumonia (for instance) being recorded as a death from coronavirus locally, or are the government statistics not picking up all the figures from smaller, out of the way locations. We'll never know, but in any case it's easy to see why it's impossible to report this with any accuracy.
 

dumbo

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So are the UK figures for the next while less than useless, in terms of trying to gauge where we might be in all this? do we have to start from scratch, plotting with the new methodology? And was the somewhat potentially promising drop in deaths yesterday a false reading?

I'm trying to contain the cynicism as much as possible but it's getting harder to do.
 

TMDaines

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Lockdown combined with social distancing, when you have to go out, will hugely help to prevent our health services becoming overwhelmed. We need lockdown and at least 80% compliance with social distancing.
People forgetting that South Korea never locked down. A solution for one country is not simply the solution for the next.
 
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https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-for-global-government-to-tackle-coronavirus

Gordon Brown giving the world financial advice.

I like how they describe him as "The former Labour prime minister, who was at the centre of the international efforts to tackle the impact of the near-meltdown of the banks in 2008" ....

and not "the man who abdicated control to the (useless) FSA and who has since admitted (and apologised for) that as Chancellor, he didn't understand the intricacies of how global financing was interlinked".

I don't think I trust any politician but GB (the man whose job was to control UK banks and understand the economy) would be down my list
 

vodrake

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So are the UK figures for the next while less than useless? do we have to start from scratch, plotting with the new methodology? And was the somewhat potentially promising drop in deaths yesterday a false reading?

I'm trying to contain the cynicism as much as possible but it's getting harder to do.
Even without the change in methodology, yesterdays figures would have been slightly inaccurate as they weren't for a full 24 hours. The previous day they recorded deaths up until 1pm, yesterday only up until 9am
 

Prometheus

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TLDR: the death rate is probably around 0.2% - 0.3%. If you're young and healthy it's significantly lower. The biggest worry is the number of ventilators and available medical staff.
0.2%-0.3%? I don't think that's even remotely true. The last time I checked it was 1.42% in South Korea who have been testing religiously - and that's actually one of the lowest death rates (if not the lowest) of any country with significant number of cases.
 

11101

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Also, further to my previous post about the UK refusing to take up the offer of EU ventilator purchasing

About those dyson ventilators

Why is that newsworthy? It reads like they've uncovered some well hidden secret. It says on the bloody spec document they will need to be approved first.
 

senorgregster

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Why do people on here seem to be trying to outdo each other in terms of doom and gloom or scaremongering? This negativity isn't helping anyone. How about some positivity?
I'll go semi positive but that's all I have. There are many ongoing clinical trials some of which will surely alleviate conditions.
I've looked at 30 of the 150+ so far and most look like the typical throwing shit at the wall and see what sticks but a few give me hope.
 

2cents

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Why do people on here seem to be trying to outdo each other in terms of doom and gloom or scaremongering? This negativity isn't helping anyone. How about some positivity?
You clearly missed the celebrities’ heart-warning rendition of Imagine.
 

Nogbadthebad

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Why is that newsworthy? It reads like they've uncovered some well hidden secret. It says on the bloody spec document they will need to be approved first.
because it comes the same day that the government refuse an invite to buy ventilators that ARE already approved, via the EU.
 

11101

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People forgetting that South Korea never locked down. A solution for one country is not simply the solution for the next.
They were able to keep ahead of testing and forcibly quarantine anybody who had it or was in contact with anybody who had it. They also knew exactly where it started and were able to follow the path from there. Both things that Europe never had the opportunity to do.
 

Ekkie Thump

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When one region of Italy, Lombardy, has a higher population and more 65´s than all of Sweden... of course it's on a different level.
No, again your speaking in absolute terms. The area of Stockholm has many times the population density of Lombardy and has a similar proportion of olds. The only advantages Stockholm has is a smaller family unit and a less touchy feely culture - nothing to do with overall size of population at all. The disaster that befell Lombardy could well happen to Stockholm if it's not properly managed (I'm not saying it isn't). I have no problem with Sweden following its own protocols and it will most probably avoid such a terrible scenario but not for any of the population based reasons you've put forward.
 

MDFC Manager

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People forgetting that South Korea never locked down. A solution for one country is not simply the solution for the next.
True but their social distancing was/is excellent.

You just need whatever you do, to be done brilliantly.
 

vodrake

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Presumably any deaths 'missed' one day would eventually get captured at a later date so overall, curve should remain broadly reflective?
Only if the family eventually gives consent. If they don't give consent, those deaths disappear into the ether and don't get captured in these statistics at all
 

OleBoiii

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0.2%-0.3%? I don't think that's even remotely true. The last time I checked it was 1.42% in South Korea who have been testing religiously - and that's actually one of the lowest death rates (if not the lowest) of any country with significant number of cases.
14 deaths in over 3000 cases. 29 days since the first case, I believe.

We've tested almost 50k people or something. That's about 1% of our entire population.

That means we have a less than 0.5% death rate so far. And that's confirmed cases. They estimate that the actual number of infected is between 2 and 7 times higher than the number of confirmed cases.
 

RedDevil@84

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Only if the family eventually gives consent. If they don't give consent, those deaths disappear into the ether and don't get captured in these statistics at all
Isn't that a stupid way to go about things? There is no need to give out the details of the person who passed away, but the stats need to be captured. Else how would the govt decide what scale of help is needed for the public.
 

Sweet Square

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Presumably any deaths 'missed' one day would eventually get captured at a later date so overall, curve should remain broadly reflective?
It would depend how late we are talking. This type of reporting could caused a slow trickle of deaths to incomes over a long period and not be broadly reflective. And as already mentioned if the families don't give consent the deaths won't be captured.

I can easily see a situation where the NHS is so overwhelmed that there simply isn't the time or resources to ask for consent.
 

Prometheus

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14 deaths in over 3000 cases. 29 days since the first case, I believe.

We've tested almost 50k people or something. That's about 1% of our entire population.

That means we have a less than 0.5% death rate so far. And that's confirmed cases. They estimate that the actual number of infected is between 2 and 7 times higher than the number of confirmed cases.
Small data/recent surge. There simply hasn't been enough time for people to progress from contracting to dying. In South Korea the CFR was a fraction of what it's now until recently.
 

Fiskey

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It would depend how late we are talking. This type of reporting could caused a slow trickle of death to incomes over a long period and not being broadly reflective. And as already mentioned if the families don't give consent the deaths won't be capture.
Its madness, its something the government needs to explain as a matter of urgency.
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

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You clearly missed the celebrities’ heart-warning rendition of Imagine.
Look, we all know that these are difficult times for everyone, we don't need it constantly pushed in our faces by the self appointed experts on here, or those selectively posting the most "bad news" tweets they can find

There are loads of positives coming out of this, if people on here are too wrapped up in their conspiracy theories to see them then that's their problem

People are looking out for each other more, especially the old and vunerable
People volunteering more
People connecting more with their families through being together or home schooling
People realising that money is not the be all and end all
People realising what is really important
People realising that the people whose jobs are really important are actually those in food production, logistics, delivery, the care system and, of course, the NHS - often those who are paid the least
People seeing the benefits of socialism rather than capitalism and greed
Benefits for the environment
More awareness of mental health
People out exercising or walking as families that would never normally do so
The acceleration of a move towards remote working and the flexibility that this brings
The time to reflect or read or whatever
 

The Purley King

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Isn't that a stupid way to go about things? There is no need to give out the details of the person who passed away, but the stats need to be captured. Else how would the govt decide what scale of help is needed for the public.
Its dodgy as feck.
Consent from family should absolutely not be required to report cause of death. Its just a number, not here is John Bloggs who died of coronavirus.
The only possible reason to do that is to hide the real numbers.
 

vodrake

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Isn't that a stupid way to go about things? There is no need to give out the details of the person who passed away, but the stats need to be captured. Else how would the govt decide what scale of help is needed for the public.
Yeah, it doesn't seem to make sense, so I'm still skeptical of it. Even if so, you'd have to imagine that somebody is still compiling all the raw data somewhere and that's whats being used to make decisions at the top level, because it's ludicrous otherwise
 

Pogue Mahone

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The absolute number isn't what governments are focusing on. Testing criteria may change but you can control that and understand it. Deaths you cannot, it's random because nobody yet understands how exactly the virus kills people.

If you know your testing criteria and have 10 cases today, 20 tomorrow and 30 the day after, you can see a trend. If the day after that you have 35 cases or 45 cases, you can see a change in the trend and react accordingly. That's what everybody is looking to see. They don't care if the absolute number of cases is 40 or 400, they accept that number is inaccurate.

Look at the way the UK report, the focus is on cases. Deaths are listed second and are not always recorded over a consistent time period. In Italy too deaths are the third thing they focus on after active cases and total cases.
I’m not sure about what you mean about deaths being too random because nobody knows how the virus kills peopleAll that matters is the opinion of the doctor that signed the death cert. Do they believe that the patient died as a result of COVID-19 infection? This might not always be something they know with absolute certainty but they’ll always be be pretty damn confident of their opinion. They have to be. The death cert is a legally binding document.

Cases, on the other hand, are widely acknowledged as being a wildly inaccurate way to assess disease burden, for obvious reasons. Countries like the UK and US have been doing many multiples fewer tests per capita than countries like South Korea, so will - completely inaccurately - report their number of cases as being many multiples lower, despite this not being the reality.

Anyway, this is a bit of a pedantic discussion but deaths are definitely being used as a useful way to track the pandemic, in the knowledge that just looking at positive cases can be very misleading.

Here’s some data being followed closely in Ireland. Collated by one of our main universities and shared on behalf of the professional body which represents all Irish General Practitioners (ICGP). With cases such a poor metric, the #deaths/million is arguably the most important in knowing how severely a country has been affected.

 
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No, again your speaking in absolute terms. The area of Stockholm has many times the population density of Lombardy and has a similar proportion of olds. The only advantages Stockholm has is a smaller family unit and a less touchy feely culture - nothing to do with overall size of population at all. The disaster that befell Lombardy could well happen to Stockholm if it's not properly managed (I'm not saying it isn't). I have no problem with Sweden following its own protocols and it will most probably avoid such a terrible scenario but not for any of the population based reasons you've put forward.
Oh we’re on the same page there pal, I’m well aware that Stockholm and most major cities are likely to become disaster zones. They don’t make field hospitals for nothing.
 

Grinner

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Right, this Sweden argument is boring the tits off most of us. Go and create a separate thread if you want to bang on about it.
 

Sarni

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0.2%-0.3%? I don't think that's even remotely true. The last time I checked it was 1.42% in South Korea who have been testing religiously - and that's actually one of the lowest death rates (if not the lowest) of any country with significant number of cases.
They've tested a lot more than other countries per million population but still haven't tested THAT much. Basically until we know how likely it is to go completely symptomless and identify all who have antibodies despite having had not symptoms previously, we will not know the real mortality rate, it's all guess work.