SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

stepic

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Lockdowns will not stop in the next two months. They likely won’t stop at all until vaccine is there. I know people are still in denial about this but this is how it will likely play out.
of course they will. the only point of the lockdowns is to ensure health services are not overwhelmed, that's it. once the first 'peak' is dealt with, the lockdown will slowly be eased.

of course there's every chance we may need anotehr lockdown or two again before a vacinne is released, but again, that will be only when the data indicates issues with ICU capacity.
 

Skills

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there seems to be a lot of praise for countries testing 50k, 75, 100k people per day. but what this has essentially meant is that these countries have 'stockpiled' the testing kits available on the world market, leaving other countries (admittedly ones who weren't as quick to realise the need, but nonetheless) scrambling around for whatever they can. surely there should be some international pressure for these countries to share these kits around a bit more to countries who aren't able to test effectively, in particular key health workers? stockpiling testing kits is the international equivalent of buying 10 packs of loo roll.
Pretty sure the likes of Germany/USA are manufacturing them in house. And isn't the test itself, just a swab analysed in a lab?
 

stepic

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Pretty sure the likes of Germany/USA are manufacturing them in house.
it would be interesting to see how many they manufacture themselves, but even still, the point remains i think. particularly within the EU if Germany is essentially testing everyone they can while other EU countries are struggling to even test their health workers.
 

Sarni

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You think like in the UK now we will stay like this until next year? Absolutely no chance. People will just ignore the advice within a few months.
I can't see full scale lockdowns lastings for that long. Social distancing will still be enforced though - preventing large gatherings/restricting travel and a sophisticated program to test & trace infections.
of course they will. the only point of the lockdowns is to ensure health services are not overwhelmed, that's it. once the first 'peak' is dealt with, the lockdown will slowly be eased.

of course there's every chance we may need anotehr lockdown or two again before a vacinne is released, but again, that will be only when the data indicates issues with ICU capacity.
I'm speaking more from the perspective of my country to be honest. Our health system is overwhelmed with 300 cases per day, we will have no sophisticated programs to test & trace anytime soon and we went into lockdowns while having 10 cases per day. Half of the country think the goal of lockdowns is to bring the count of cases to 0 and remove the virus completely from society. There's no light at the end of this tunnel, we've gone too far into the panic mode. That's why our government is rushing to have election on 10 May, they want to win while they can because country is going to be in so much chaos soon that they won't win ever again.

Western countries may have a hope to at least allow people back on the streets by the end of this year. I would not expect crowds at sports events or concerts or pubs to be opened anytime in the next 12 months though.
 

Balu

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there seems to be a lot of praise for countries testing 50k, 75, 100k people per day. but what this has essentially meant is that these countries have 'stockpiled' the testing kits available on the world market, leaving other countries (admittedly ones who weren't as quick to realise the need, but nonetheless) scrambling around for whatever they can. surely there should be some international pressure for these countries to share these kits around a bit more to countries who aren't able to test effectively, in particular key health workers? stockpiling testing kits is the international equivalent of buying 10 packs of loo roll.
Isn't the number of tests also limited to the capacity of the laboratories in the country/region? I guess with new and easier test kits developed soon, that might change. In most media reports in Germany the number of possible tests was always linked to what the laboratories can do. The test kits alone are worthless if they end up in an endloss queue before actually being analysed. Maybe there is a possibility to share ressources in labarotires between countries, but I guess that isn't easy to realise and possibly won't give you quick enough results to act swiftly when necessary.
 

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there seems to be a lot of praise for countries testing 50k, 75, 100k people per day. but what this has essentially meant is that these countries have 'stockpiled' the testing kits available on the world market, leaving other countries (admittedly ones who weren't as quick to realise the need, but nonetheless) scrambling around for whatever they can. surely there should be some international pressure for these countries to share these kits around a bit more to countries who aren't able to test effectively, in particular key health workers? stockpiling testing kits is the international equivalent of buying 10 packs of bog roll. yet these countries hoarding are praised for it.
We make the tests in the UK if anybody had the ability to stockpile them it was us but we faffed around saying we need to make sure they work, no test is better than a bad test and everybody else brought them up before testing them to make sure they work. So now we're left with limited tests.
 

Skills

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it would be interesting to see how many they manufacture themselves, but even still, the point remains i think. particularly within the EU if Germany is essentially testing everyone they can while other EU countries are struggling to even test their health workers.
From what I know, the real bottleneck in the test is the lab capacity to analyse the samples. Unless countries start shipping off the samples to Germany to get them analysed, they won't be able to help. Germany have just been much better than most others to increase lab capacity.
 

JPRouve

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Isn't the number of tests also limited to the capacity of the laboratories in the country/region? I guess with new and easier test kits developed soon, that might change. In most media reports in Germany the number of possible tests was always linked to what the laboratories can do. The test kits alone are worthless if they end up in an endloss queue before actually being analysed. Maybe there is a possibility to share ressources in labarotires between countries, but I guess that isn't easy to realise and possibly won't give you quick enough results to act swiftly when necessary.
That's exactly the issue. In the case of France the initial problem was the amount of labs with the authorisation to make that type of tests but also the reception of potentially infected people in a safe environment, in town labs. The first point is an administrative failure that has been quickly fixed since but from my point of view the quickness with which the ARS managed to accredit new labs makes me think that it was an unnecessary hurddle in the first place.
 

11101

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It's the preparation or lack thereof that really anger me. We knew the NHS wasn't prepared and seemed to play a waiting game before we decided to actually bother to do anything.

We could have been a month ahead on so many elements of the planning not just the NHS but as a wider society. It just leads me to believe we were planning on herd immunity with limited lockdown and realised our mistake late with us now playing catchup.
Until/unless the country runs out of ventilators you can't say that with any conviction. So far we are keeping ahead of the pace of the infection in terms of available beds.
 

JPRouve

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We make the tests in the UK if anybody had the ability to stockpile them it was us but we faffed around saying we need to make sure they work, no test is better than a bad test and everybody else brought them up before testing them to make sure they work. So now we're left with limited tests.
Yup, one of the 19 producers is a Franco-british company that produces the kits in the UK.
 

Skills

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We make the tests in the UK if anybody had the ability to stockpile them it was us but we faffed around saying we need to make sure they work, no test is better than a bad test and everybody else brought them up before testing them to make sure they work. So now we're left with limited tests.
Sounds awfully familiar
 

fergieisold

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I think people are in for a bit of a shock in the next few weeks then. Some of that selfish rebelliousness will get knocked out when people close to them start to get taken ill seriously or worse start dying.
While the peak is happening of course but give it a few months the number of cases will be dramatically lower and normal life can start to resume. Will there be a second wave and further restrictions? Very possible I'd say.
 

spiriticon

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Sweden has 180 deaths which is the highest in Scandinavia and twice the next highest in Denmark (90 deaths)

I'm not sure herd immunity is working out for them right now, and maybe it will in a years time.

But just the thought of a country being willing to throw it's citizens to the wolves strikes the wrong chord with me.
 

redshaw

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Thought I read somewhere it's the chemicals used in the labs we're short of.

They say they're aiming for mid April to test 20-25k a day
 

Skills

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While the peak is happening of course but give it a few months the number of cases will be dramatically lower and normal life can start to resume. Will there be a second wave and further restrictions? Very possible I'd say.
Yes but the memories of the next month or so will be fresh enough to act as reinforcement. If we have to go into another full scale lockdown, I think it will have been a failure of the system.

But a degree of restrictions/social distancing will need to stay in place for the best part of the year. That includes restriction on travel and mass gatherings. They've got time now to put a lot measures in place and to plan ahead for the exit.

If they can increase their testing capacity to say something like the 1m tests per week Germany are planning they can successfully start testing & tracing cases when the outbreaks begin. You can start testing kids in schools and employees on site every X number of weeks. Program a 'pass certificate' into oyster cards etc so people can only get on public transport if they've been tested in the last X number of weeks. There's loads of things they can do, and thankfully living in the west means we have the technology and capability to put in place things like this. The preventative course of action will be much cheaper than another full lockdown.
 

Adisa

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You can take what he said in isolation and as preposterously hypocritical as it is, that quote is objectively correct.
It is. He's not wrong but it's got nowt to do with his and America's failings.
 

fergieisold

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Yes but the memories of the next month or so will be fresh enough to act as reinforcement. If we have to go into another full scale lockdown, I think it will have been a failure of the system.

But a degree of restrictions/social distancing will need to stay in place for the best part of the year. That includes restriction on travel and mass gatherings. They've got time now to put a lot measures in place and to plan ahead for the exit.

If they can increase their testing capacity to say something like the 1m tests per week Germany are planning they can successfully start testing & tracing cases when the outbreaks begin. You can start testing kids in schools and employees on site every X number of weeks. Program a 'pass certificate' into oyster cards etc so people can only get on public transport if they've been tested in the last X number of weeks. There's loads of things they can do, and thankfully living in the west means we have the technology and capability to put in place things like this. The preventative course of action will be much cheaper than another full lockdown.
I really hope the light at the end of the tunnel is being able to go on holiday to France in August! Time will tell.
 
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Lockdowns will not stop in the next two months. They likely won’t stop at all until vaccine is there. I know people are still in denial about this but this is how it will likely play out.
I think you’re in denial about how impossible that would be.
It’d be anarchy and likely will be in Southern Italy within the next month.
Lockdown for a year is simply not going to happen.
 

Dancfc

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Never thought i'd watch a Nigel Farage speech and nod in agreement all the way through but he's spot on here.

Dye in the Blue Lagoon for feck sake!
 
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Sweden has 180 deaths which is the highest in Scandinavia and twice the next highest in Denmark (90 deaths)
@spiriticon I mean, do we just ignore that we have twice the population of Denmark? And that our worst hit areas (Stockholm & Copenhagen) pretty much follow that pattern?

Should we also ignore that Ireland has locked down yet has 14 deaths per 1,000,000 and Sweden 18 so hardly much difference?

Swiss: 50
France: 54
Belgium: 71

As I said yesterday, all deaths happening now everywhere are from infections before lockdowns and before countries put measures in place. You realise that right?

No-one is throwing people to the wolves ffs. Sweden’s scientists believe the measures we have put in place here are measures that can be maintained for month after month after month to give out health service time to save as many as possible. They do not believe that lockdowns have in anyway proven a longterm solution to save lives, unless you’re prepared to lockdown until a vaccine comes, and well, no-one is locking down for a year, it’s quite simply impossible.
 
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Pexbo

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Never thought i'd watch a Nigel Farage speech and nod in agreement all the way through but he's spot on here.

Dye in the Blue Lagoon for feck sake!
I refuse to watch that. Is it as the title suggests? Farage suggesting that we should not be accepting the government telling us to socially isolate at home?
 

cyberman

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@spiriticon I mean, do we just ignore that we have twice the population of Denmark? And that our worst hit areas (Stockholm & Copenhagen) pretty much follow that pattern?

Should we also ignore that Ireland has locked down yet has 14 deaths per 1,000,000 and Sweden 18 so hardly much difference?

Swiss: 50
France: 54
Belgium: 71

As I said yesterday, all deaths happening now everywhere are from infections before lockdowns and before countries put measures in place. You realise that right?

No-one is throwing people to the wolves ffs. Sweden’s scientists believe the measures we have put in place here are measures that can be maintained for month after month after month to give out health service time to save as many as possible. They do not believe that lockdowns have in anyway proven a longterm solution to save lives, unless you’re prepared to lockdown until a vaccine comes, and well, no-one is locking down for a year, it’s quite simply impossible.
2000 Swedish doctors and scientists signed a petition saying Sweden path was leading them to catastrophe? Youre being very loose with the way you frame your points imo.
 

Dans

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I love the country of America in itself, but the hoardes of right-wing Americans who voted this guy in, are now seeing the full hell of what they voted for begin to show itself.

This is what happens when you vote for a narcissistic businessman, a PR machine and a CONMAN and expect him to be a leader. He is reverting to what he knows best - self-preservation and 'protecting his brand' by deflecting attention away from the matter at hand and talking about other countries.

There will be many a right-wing, older American gasping for breath on their deathbed thinking what might have been had they not voted for someone just because he was an open racist.
Edited that for you.
 
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Following on from what we were discussing yesterday @noodlehair, I get the distinct impression that a huge number of posters on here actively want the Swedish model to fail.
That’s absolutely nuts, surely we should all want to see that common sense social distancing, protecting your elderly and excellent sick leave changes (14 paid with no sick note) can work.
If Sweden’s model doesn’t work, we’re fecked.
 

Cardboard elk

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@spiriticon I mean, do we just ignore that we have twice the population of Denmark? And that our worst hit areas (Stockholm & Copenhagen) pretty much follow that pattern?

Should we also ignore that Ireland has locked down yet has 14 deaths per 1,000,000 and Sweden 18 so hardly much difference?

As I said yesterday, all deaths happening now everywhere are from infections before lockdowns and before countries put measures in place. You realise that right?
I want to add that Norway has only 40 deaths so far. We have been at 1/5 of sweden approximately, and 1/2 nr. of people. Main difference might be that Norway has been among the best in the world at testing. We have tested 2% of the population so far, approx 100,000 people.

We will see this and next week how sweden does. Myself, I have been critical to the ski resorts in Åre being open so long. The ski resorts in Italy and Austria was how we imported nearly 1000 infected to Norway and had to shut down. So all the people that went to Åre skiresorts might have been infected and taken this around sweden. Hopefully they self isolated. Other than that, Sweden will propably get this under control at some time I think. But Stockholm seems to be in for a bit of trouble. Good that you are starting to test more. It is really helpful to use for choosing how to deal with this and plan ahead.

No Scandinavian countries will be the ones hit hard by this though. We will see in a month that nations from other parts of the world, like India, Brazil, Philipines, US, Africa nations etc wil be the places that gets really really bad.
In Europe I am a lot more worried about UK, Spain and Italy than Scandinavia. We will pull through due to our cultures and internal local cooperation among people. There are idiots here as well, but we do not have as large citys.
 

Pagh Wraith

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Never thought i'd watch a Nigel Farage speech and nod in agreement all the way through but he's spot on here.

Dye in the Blue Lagoon for feck sake!
Agreed. This public shaming seems to be a UK thing though. I haven't seen this here in Germany unless people literally go it in groups or have parties. Although the rules might be stricter in the UK (we don't have that excercise once a day thing). I usually go out twice a day and from what I can see people are following the social distancing guidelines. There is a reason governments avoid using the word lockdown and call it restrictions or something.
 
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I want to add that Norway has only 40 deaths so far. We have been at 1/5 of sweden approximately, and 1/2 nr. of people. Main difference might be that Norway has been among the best in the world at testing. We have tested 2% of the population so far, approx 100,000 people.
Oh Norway has been miles better at testing no doubt. But the deaths show us nothing so far due to the lag.
We have zero idea how many infected were in Norway or Sweden 2 weeks ago so it’s very difficult to compare the data.
 

Grinner

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Dyeing that pond was a fecking joke of a decision but the rozzers probably don't have that much to do at the moment so shaming selfish twats is on their list. Farage can feck off just for being Farage.
 

Guy Incognito

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I think you’re in denial about how impossible that would be.
It’d be anarchy and likely will be in Southern Italy within the next month.
Lockdown for a year is simply not going to happen.
I can't see lockdown lasting longer than June here (UK). Social distancing rules are most likely to continue up until autumn.
 

Cardboard elk

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Oh Norway has been miles better at testing no doubt. But the deaths show us nothing so far due to the lag.
We have zero idea how many infected were in Norway or Sweden 2 weeks ago so it’s very difficult to compare the data.
Hard to compare, yes. agree with you there! Although as I said, skiresorts were our main problem. The ones in Austria and Italy. So large gatherings is a key factor in many places. Like Bergamo and the football match. So in my opinion, we will not know in Sweden yet due to the ones that travelled to/from Åre, and also those who went out partying at pubs in various cities that might have started new chains of infections at exponential rates for a while until the more strict measures were taken.
Hopefully, it was not too bad, but as you say, due to the lag it will just be guessing. My guess though, is the late approach and less strict measures will lead to more deaths in the short term at least.

Then we can debate all day what is the correct approach. The truth is, nobody knows yet. All comes down to how fast medicines and vaccines will come, when antibody test will start, what they will tell us, how immunity develops and how the people of a nation can behave, how the capacity of the Health Care system is etcetera etcetera....
 

0le

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Unless the virus is instantly destroyed when a droplet evaporates to the surroundings then aerosol transmission is certainly possible. I'd have to calculate to be certain but many of the small droplets coughed/sneezed into dry air are going to evaporate in seconds - leaving the virus in open air?
This is an excellent point. I located an old paper here and quickly looking at it in Fig. 3, yes, droplets can evapourate very quickly. I also found another paper here with similar conclusions. It is important to stress that these results appear to be for pure liquid water (I'd need to check more closely).

With regards to droplets with viruses I found one study here. According to this paper:
A number of droplet generation measurements have found that the majority of exhaled droplets during breathing are in the sub-micron range, while coughing and sneezing can produce large droplets. Wells [14] first defined large droplets as those over 100um in aerodynamic diameter. The mechanism of droplet formation and origin is also associated with virus and bacteria load in droplets, as pathogens are usually limited to certain areas of the body. Lindsley et al. used the quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) to measure the influenza virus in aerosol particles from human coughs. Some 35% of the detected influenza RNA was contained in particles>4um in diameter, 23% in particles of 1-4um, and 42% in particles<1um, showing not only that coughing by patients emits aerosols containing the influenza virus, but also that much of the viral RNA is contained within particles in the respirable size range.

...droplet size seems the most important factor affecting dispersion and deposition
[deposition refers to a droplet impacting on a surface]

...The number of droplets during a single cough can be as high as 3000

...Xie et al. extended the study by analysing the cough jet as a steady round jet, and found that the expired droplets can travel up to 1.5-2 m
. The effect of turbulence was not considered. Most computer modelling studies also have not properly considered the impact of turbulence. Klettner et al. theoretically demonstrated that the effect of turbulence significantly increases the transmission distance and spread of droplets in a hospital room.
[Note that a round jet is simply a flow of air which is ejected from a pipe which has a circular diameter. "Steady" means that they looked at an air flow whose average velocity (in time) at some location, normally the centre of the pipe, was constant. Turbulence refers to a state of fluid motion which is, generally, chaotic-like. Think of "fast" moving flows..]

...The evaporation process of a single droplet was first studied, as shown in Fig. 8. It takes 0.066 s and 6.63 s for droplets with initial sizes of 10um and 100um, respectively, to become droplet nuclei in still and dry conditions (RH=0, and the relativevelocityDu=0 m/s). The evaporation time here seems proportional to the square of the initial droplet diameter d^2....Similar results have been presented in other studies [RH is the relative humidity].

... The ambient humidity has a significant effect on the evaporation rate of droplets, as the evaporation time increases to 1.52 s (23-fold) and 199.0 s (30-fold), respectively, in humid conditions (RH=90%).Due to the Kelvin effect, small droplets have a smaller final normalised diameter (0.401) compared with large droplets (0.428), as shown in Fig. 8.
The fig.8 is shown here:


I'm not really sure what they mean by "droplet nuclei". The paper above seems to be based on a model, with a handful of data compared to experimental data, but it does give a good idea of some of the mechanisms involved. Generally with regards to size, you need to be careful. Droplets less than a particular scale of the air flow (called the Kolmogorov scale) can be considered to be "small". Droplets larger than this size are called "finite sized" and have more complicated and poorly understand dispersion mechanisms. So it isn't really the absolute droplet size you consider but a size ratio.

Hope that helps.

EDIT:
So according to this website, droplet nuceli:
small particles of pathogen-containing respiratory secretions expelled into the air by coughing, which are reduced by evaporation to small, dry particles that can remain airborne for long periods; one possible mechanism for transmission of infection from one individual to another.
So it seems what happens is that there is a droplet with some solid content, the liquid content is evapourated, leaving a solid particle core. I'm guessing the solid particle is very small and if it is, then yes, the particles could well be suspended for considerable time.
 
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ThierryHenry

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I realise this is the most first world of problems right now but are anyone else’s hands absolutely ruined at the moment?
Yeah, mine were like that from aggressive hand washing. Hand cream helped hugely - as well as lockdown, meaning that I haven't been going outside as much.
 

sullydnl

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@spiriticon I mean, do we just ignore that we have twice the population of Denmark? And that our worst hit areas (Stockholm & Copenhagen) pretty much follow that pattern?

Should we also ignore that Ireland has locked down yet has 14 deaths per 1,000,000 and Sweden 18 so hardly much difference?

Swiss: 50
France: 54
Belgium: 71

As I said yesterday, all deaths happening now everywhere are from infections before lockdowns and before countries put measures in place. You realise that right?

No-one is throwing people to the wolves ffs. Sweden’s scientists believe the measures we have put in place here are measures that can be maintained for month after month after month to give out health service time to save as many as possible. They do not believe that lockdowns have in anyway proven a longterm solution to save lives, unless you’re prepared to lockdown until a vaccine comes, and well, no-one is locking down for a year, it’s quite simply impossible.
Sweden also has over twice the population that Ireland does though, which skews per capita stats:


The reality is that it's too early to draw any conclusions about these countries yet.