It is because the health workers are way more likely to get tested.
I am starting to wonder how far away we are from herd immunity, the actual numbers of infections would make our jaws drop.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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I am starting to wonder how far away we are from herd immunity, the actual numbers of infections would make our jaws drop.
Aye that seems to be their main concern atm, they're bringing in specific measures and financial support for that sector apparently.
Shows the value of testing, I guess. Let's you see where cases are building and react.
Not necessarily. SARS came from wet markets, where there is the perfect opportunity for it to happen. MERS came from camels, but people there (Beduins) spend a lot of time with camels, so they might eventually get infected from a camel if it is infected. People don't spend too much time with pangolins, or snakes, so I think that it is quite unlikely that in the wild, a bat somehow infects a pangolin, then some human finds the same pangolin. I mean, it is possible, but it is unlikely. On the other hand, if the bat is in the wet market near the pangolin, then the chances of infection happen are higher, and of course, the pangolin is going to have contacts with people (that is why it is there in the first place).
Bear in mind, that the virus jumping from one species to another is not straightforward, and jumping in two species is even harder. There probably need to be many infections, for one of them to succeed making 2 successful jumps.
Boris looks like yer da using Skype for the first time
US had more deaths than any other country yesterday. This is gonna be very ugly, especially for states like Florida who have many infections but no lockdowns.
California and Washington are doing quite better on the other hand.
California and Washington are doing quite better on the other hand.
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California's huge size and lack of public transport (well LA specifically) probably helps. The New York subway must've been one of the reasons its so bad in the NYC.
There is a religion thread for daftness. I don't want a back and forth about it in here please.
There is no scientific concensus that Bats or Pangolins were involved.
Suspicions. No facts.
SF, Bay Area and LA do have subway systems that move a lot of people. There are also trams and buses in SF. I think buses also move lots of folk in LA.
Strange thing is that in Bay Area, the northern Bay (San Francisco etc) is doing better than South Bay (Santa Clara county), despite that San Francisco has a more advanced public transport system.
The lack of public transport is a blessing when it comes to this disease. It is very likely that NYC's subway is the main reason why NY is having so many infected people.
Texas is the one I think stands out in this regard. The number of cases is not really in proportion to population.
I thought Houston with an intercontinental airport and one of the busiest ports would be much worse.
The UN has always been a pointless entity.
Does Bay Area have a subway? There is the Caltrain, but that's it. That makes me wonder why Santa Clara county is doing worse than San Francisco county (who has a subway).
Indeed.
Of course it's unlikely, that's why it doesn't happen often even though bats carying these type of viruses are common. And your theory doesn't actually work for a simple reason, the virus needs to evolve within the intermediary species in order to be able to infect humans, so the wet market theory is a none starter. Bats can infect people directly with other viruses, like certain filoviruses and rabies though. In the case of SARS Cov1 as I said earlier the intermediary species is the Asian palm Civet, in the case of MERS it's the the dromedary, it's not one isolated animal that is infected but probably a large group within a region, people catch a member of that group, sell them on a market and it's starts an epidemy.
INSERM sources are in french so it would be pointless to share them but here you have an example:
I can't get enough of this anti-China propaganda.
fecking ridiculous. I wonder what people that buy so easily into that think of this, and how it compares to those incredibly lousy (in terms of details and actual evidence) reports from "silencing" chinese doctors...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ff-fired-ppe-resources-pandemic-a9439331.html
I also wonder what these people think of Trump, Brexit and the likes of Bolsonaro. What do they think of Blair, Aznar and Bush?
I mean, China's human rights record is absolutely terrible and should never be ignored. I'm not claiming they are the good guys. But when you look into social dynamics (poverty, safety networks for the little guy, corruption - legal in the US, called "lobbying") and even foreign policy trajectories, how the feck do the Western super-powers look that much better?
At some point it seems the only thing we will be able to say we got over them morally is that we're a democracy. Gerrymandered, but still.
I'm annoyed and sleepless (benzo abstinence) so excuse the passive agressiveness of the rant, but I'm sure I will still stand by most of this tomorrow.
fecking ridiculous. I wonder what people that buy so easily into that think of this, and how it compares to those incredibly lousy (in terms of details and actual evidence) reports from "silencing" chinese doctors...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ff-fired-ppe-resources-pandemic-a9439331.html
When you accuse them of lying or "hiding numbers" (have yet to see a well-sourced and credible report about this) I wonder what the feck you think about the insane level of lying and cuntishness of some Western leaders... Even in my country (and autonomous region), with governments I roughly "support" they lie every fecking day, to the people, to us doctors...
I also wonder what these people think of Trump, Brexit and the likes of Bolsonaro. What do they think of Blair, Aznar and Bush?
I mean, China's human rights record is absolutely terrible and should never be ignored. I'm not claiming they are the good guys. But when you look into social dynamics (poverty, safety networks for the little guy, corruption - legal in the US, called "lobbying") and even foreign policy trajectories, how the feck do the Western super-powers look that much better?
At some point it seems the only thing we will be able to say we got over them morally is that we're a democracy. Gerrymandered, but still.
I'm annoyed and sleepless (benzo abstinence) so excuse the passive agressiveness of the rant, but I'm sure I will still stand by most of this tomorrow.
You realize that people might be disgusted at China's behavior, and at the same time hate Trump, Bolsonaro and Boris? These things are hardly mutually-exclusive.
I don’t buy into the whole conspiracy stuff but I think there’s a genuine concern that China have misled / lied about it as part of a cover up.
If that’s ever proven, surely that’s equitable to war crimes?! You’d imagine there would be international condemnation! Could get very messy
If that’s ever proven, surely that’s equitable to war crimes?! You’d imagine there would be international condemnation! Could get very messy
It's not exactly the disgust and hate. That may very well be justified against every elite, including the CPC. It's about the rethoric of demanding sanctions and isolating China.
As an European I find exactly the same thing about the fecking US. Sanction them until they impeach the Orange idiot. The only argument against it, in my opinion, is realpolitik. Which applies as well to our relationship with China.
We're turning railway coaches into makeshift treatment and isolation centres in India.
Really hoping they get properly sanitized once this is over and the coaches get back into service
Really hoping they get properly sanitized once this is over and the coaches get back into service
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I was surprised to see an article in the New York times I think it was yesterday or day before about the time line on what happened in Wuhan. It gave a lot of details and time lines and how and why it happened.
According to it after SARS China had installed a computerised system to alert anything of this sort. The hospitals were supposed to enter all information and details into the system and then the CDC would have been alerted in Beijing.
What Beijing didn't take into account was the very nature of their system of government would be the main reason it failed.
Doctors instead of entering the information consulted the heads of the hospitals and the political heads in Wuhan. They procrastinated and the data was not entered.
By end of December CDC has been alerted by whistleblowers and private messages that something unusual was going on in Wuhan and that it was not flu nor SARS.
They sent a team and investigating it found that it was something they don't know.
That's when they realized that this was out of control and they have no idea what it is. WHO was informed about it in January and they also wrote in the Lancet journal.
What they designed should have worked if not for human failures of local politicians in Wuhan. Yes they got sacked of course but it's small comfort. In the old days of Mao they would have disappeared.
Regarding the masks now it has been revealed that the masks ordered by the Spanish and Dutch were through a local company who ordered it from a private manufacturer in China. The specs were American specs and not EU specs. Chinese government has already banned export of equipment that's not approved by the government.
Yes they are a dictatorship and yes they call themselves Communist but in all reality they are no more Communist than Saudi Arabia.
Give them credit when they help. Criticise them when they deserve it. East is East and West is West. Things are different in different countries.
Furthermore a Russian AN124 will be landing in New York in about an hour with medical supplies, gift of the Russian government to the US government. Why can't countries work together?
Harvard should be liquidated tbh
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Yes it is called BART and moves a lot of people around. It's also minging without being extra skanky from CV. Santa Clara County is packed with people whereas SF they are a bit more spread out. SC County is the centre of the tech industry so lots of intensive office buildings and intermingling of young staff who think they know everything.
Don't let Biden forget his instrumental role in imposing militarization, privatizations and gutting of healthcare in central america if things turn badly there. Something he even likes to brag about.
The only reason why China is not ostracized and sanctioned like Russia is, for example, is because China had a better working plan than the Soviet Union (which after the collapse suffered an incredibly corrupt process of privatization, as a lot of countries in the Eastern Block suffered) and it seems the West had tagged Russia as the major threat to their dominance, neglecting the slow but continuously consistent development of Chinese foreign policy.
It's naive to believe that geopolitics would ever be based on human rights or morality, at least that's how I see it right now.
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Haha, love this.
Cases worldwide should break a million soon. It's at 924k and was 200k 13 days ago.
I bet it’s actually over 100 times that figure in reality.
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Don’t leave us hanging?!
There is an interesting study being conducted in Germany at the moment. Led by Hendrik Streeck (chief virologist at the University Hospital Bonn), supported by 70 colleagues and funded by the state of North-Rhine Westphalia, they are trying to find out more about how the virus spreads.
Streeck has been critical of the Robert Koch Institute (the country's federal agency responsible for disease control) which, according to him, missed the chance to collect reliable data. So with the help of the local registration office, 500 representative families from one town were selected to fill that gap. The same town in which the first infection in NRW occured. They are now being studied which includes blood sampling, taking throat swaps and a comprehensive questionnaire. The researchers know exactly when the virus hit the town, on 15 February during a carnival session. The assumption is that many of the local outbreaks around Europe are directly connected to big celebrations or gatherings - carnival in Germany, après-ski in Tyrol or football matches in Bergamo. Or in simple words, a lot of people in tight spaces. They have a list of attendees for said carnival meeting and are working their way from there.
Interestingly, the research team could not detect traces the virus on any of the tested surfaces, even in highly contaminated households. Not on phones, door handles, washbasins or cats. Streeck stressed that as of now there was no danger of infecting anyone while shopping and is highly doubtful if transmission could happen at restaurants or the hairdresser's. He didn't go as far as criticising the current measures but called them drastic and said many of the decisions have been made based on speculation and hopes this study can shed some light on the path of infection to make better decisions going forward.
Streeck has been critical of the Robert Koch Institute (the country's federal agency responsible for disease control) which, according to him, missed the chance to collect reliable data. So with the help of the local registration office, 500 representative families from one town were selected to fill that gap. The same town in which the first infection in NRW occured. They are now being studied which includes blood sampling, taking throat swaps and a comprehensive questionnaire. The researchers know exactly when the virus hit the town, on 15 February during a carnival session. The assumption is that many of the local outbreaks around Europe are directly connected to big celebrations or gatherings - carnival in Germany, après-ski in Tyrol or football matches in Bergamo. Or in simple words, a lot of people in tight spaces. They have a list of attendees for said carnival meeting and are working their way from there.
Interestingly, the research team could not detect traces the virus on any of the tested surfaces, even in highly contaminated households. Not on phones, door handles, washbasins or cats. Streeck stressed that as of now there was no danger of infecting anyone while shopping and is highly doubtful if transmission could happen at restaurants or the hairdresser's. He didn't go as far as criticising the current measures but called them drastic and said many of the decisions have been made based on speculation and hopes this study can shed some light on the path of infection to make better decisions going forward.
I lived in Houston for 5 years and I could go entire weekdays without being in close contact with people as everything is large and spread out. People drive everywhere, the city itself is a sprawl and the only community events outside friends are the sports franchises. Dallas on the other hand has a cluster of cases. I think most of it depends on one event where one or more people in attendance were infected.
Oh yeah, but that is mostly on San Francisco. For Bay area I meant more Santa Clara county (which technically speaking is South Bay, but where almost all Silicon Valley companies are located).
Almost all companies issued work from home orders before California lockdown (which in turn was before Trump's 15 days to stop the spread guidelines). This might be the reason why in absolute numbers, the rate of infections is still quite low (890 cases in a county of 2 million people), despite that it has the most diverse and active population in the country (and also thousands of people working on the same building).
100 million already? No way. If that would have been the case, then we would be talking for a mortality rate significantly lower than that of the flu, and we would have just continued with normal life. It might be that the number of infections is double that we think of, or even a few times higher, but not 100 times higher.
sorry mate. I started typing and then had to deal with my children. I must have posted by accident.
I found out earlier that my 63 year old Mum is back on the wards as of tomorrow. She still works for the NHS but hasn’t been a general ward nurse in over 20 years. But it’s all hands to the pump as staffing levels have been decimated due to illness and self isolation.
Three patients on the ward have Covid19. I’m worried sick about her
Ah I’m sorry mate, make sure she fights like hell for her PPE gear.sorry mate. I started typing and then had to deal with my children. I must have posted by accident.
I found out earlier that my 63 year old Mum is back on the wards as of tomorrow. She still works for the NHS but hasn’t been a general ward nurse in over 20 years. But it’s all hands to the pump as staffing levels have been decimated due to illness and self isolation.
Three patients on the ward have Covid19. I’m worried sick about her
I don't think it would be that surprising if we find out that this disease is massively more infectious and much less deadly than we thought tbh.