SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[vodrake]

Peston is awfully shit, sadly.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Pretty much a government mouth piece.

He actually did his job last night, following up with the Chemical Industries Association on Goves statement that we couldn't get hold of enough of the reagents for tests who informed him that Gove is full of shit and that none of their members are reporting a shortage.

Did he bring this up in the Government press conference today though? Did he feck

 

[redshaw]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Everything iIs going according to the plan.

Another sensationalist graph and headlines to have UK doing bad. UK is behind in the outbreak, Spain who is somehow getting kudos points for topping out at ~900 deaths went through the same jump with more deaths per day from 200-300 to 500 to 700 to 800-900. You can plot the same alarming graph of no plateau with the same headlines for Spain during this time 1-2 weeks ago.

If UK goes on to have 1000 then 1200 deaths then fine no problem but the FT graph doesn't point to that happening or not, with how poor the NHS is we just well might but this idea of Spain plateauing so we should be now right now and ignoring UK and Spain are at different timelines and ignoring Spain went through this exponential rise is disingenuous. We're 1-2 weeks down the road and hitting Degner while Spain is at the Spoon curve on Suzuka, we can't take the corner Spain is on, we're going through Degner that Spain went through 1-2 weeks ago. We'll see if we top out like Spain and Italy have at 800-900 per day.

Oddly similar 3 deaths as a starting point?

​

United Kingdom Dates​	UK Deaths​	Italy Dates​	Italy Deaths​	Spain Dates​	Spain Deaths​	France Dates​	France Deaths​	Germany Dates​	Germany Deaths​	USA Dates​	USA Deaths​
Mar 8th​	3​	Feb-23rd​	3​	Mar 5th​	3​	Mar 2nd​	3​	Mar 11th​	3​	Mar 1st​	2​
Mar 9th​	5​	Feb 24th​	7​	Mar 6th​	8​	Mar 3rd​	4​	Mar 12th​	5​	Mar 2nd​	6​
Mar 10th​	6​	Feb 25th​	11​	Mar 7th​	10​	Mar 4th​	4​	Mar 13th​	8​	Mar 3rd​	9​
Mar 11th​	8​	Feb 26th​	12​	Mar 8th​	17​	Mar 5th​	7​	Mar 14th​	8​	Mar 4th​	11​
Mar 12th​	10​	Feb 27th​	17​	Mar 9th​	30​	Mar 6th​	9​	Mar 15th​	12​	Mar 5th​	11​
Mar 13th​	11​	Feb 28th​	21​	Mar 10th​	36​	Mar 7th​	16​	Mar 16th​	12​	Mar 6th​	14​
Mar 14th​	21​	Feb 29th​	29​	Mar 11th​	55​	Mar 8th​	19​	Mar 17th​	12​	Mar 7th​	19​
Mar 15th​	35​	Mar 1st​	41​	Mar 12th​	86​	Mar 9th​	30​	Mar 18th​	12​	Mar 8th​	21​
Mar 16th​	55​	Mar 2nd​	52​	Mar 13th​	133​	Mar 10th​	33​	Mar 19th​	20​	Mar 9th​	26​
Mar 17th​	71​	Mar 3rd​	79​	Mar 14th​	196​	Mar 11th​	48​	Mar 20th​	31​	Mar 10th​	31​
Mar 18th​	104​	Mar 4th​	107​	Mar 15th​	294​	Mar 12th​	61​	Mar 21st​	47​	Mar 11th​	37​
Mar 19th​	144​	Mar 5th​	148​	Mar 16th​	342​	Mar 13th​	79​	Mar-22nd​	55​	Mar 12th​	41​
Mar 20th​	177​	Mar 6th​	197​	Mar 17th​	533​	Mar 14th​	91​	Mar 23rd​	86​	Mar 13th​	49​
Mar 21st​	233​	Mar 7th​	233​	Mar 18th​	638​	Mar 15th​	127​	Mar 24th​	114​	Mar 14th​	55​
Mar 22nd​	281​	Mar 8th​	366​	Mar 19th​	833​	Mar 16th​	148​	Mar 25th​	149​	Mar 15th​	62​
Mar 23rd​	335​	Mar 9th​	463​	Mar 20th​	1,093​	Mar 17th​	175​	Mar 26th​	198​	Mar 16th​	76​
Mar 24th​	422​	Mar 10th​	631​	Mar 21st​	1,381​	Mar 18th​	244​	Mar 27th​	253​	Mar 17th​	97​
Mar 25th​	468​	Mar 11th​	827​	Mar 22nd​	1,813​	Mar 19th​	372​	Mar 28th​	325​	Mar 18th​	123​
Mar 26th​	578​	Mar 12th​	1,016​	Mar 23rd​	2,207​	Mar 20th​	450​	Mar 29th​	389​	Mar19th​	175​
Mar 27th​	759​	Mar 13th​	1,266​	Mar 24th​	2,696​	Mar 21st​	562​	Mar 30th​	455​	Mar 20th​	230​
Mar 28th​	1,019​	Mar 14th​	1,441​	Mar 25th​	3,434​	Mar 22nd​	674​	Mar 31st​	600​	Mar 21st​	298​
Mar 29th​	1,228​	Mar 15th​	1,809​	Mar 26th​	4,145​	Mar 23rd​	860​	Apr 1st​	732​	Mar 22nd​	408​
Mar 30th​	1,408​	Mar 16th​	2,158​	Mar 27th​	4,858​	Mar 24th​	1100​	​	​	Mar 23rd​	519​
Mar 31st​	1,789​	Mar 17th​	2,503​	Mar 28th​	5,690​	Mar 25th​	1331​	​	​	Mar 24th​	681​
Apr 1st​	2,352​	Mar 18th​	2,978​	Mar 29th​	6,528​	Mar 26th​	1,696​	​	​	Mar 25th​	906​
Apr 2nd​	​	Mar 19th​	3,405​	Mar 30th​	7,340​	Mar 27th​	1,995​	​	​	Mar 26th​	1,159​
​	​	Mar 20th​	4,032​	Mar 31st​	8,189​	Mar 28th​	2,314​	​	​	Mar 27th​	1,592​
​	​	Mar 21st​	4,825​	Apr 1st​	9,053​	Mar 29th​	2,606​	​	​	Mar 28th​	2,039​
​	​	Mar 22nd​	5,475​	Apr 2nd​	​	Mar 30th​	3,024​	​	​	Mar 29th​	2,452​
​	​	Mar 23rd​	6,077​	​	​	Mar 31st​	3,523​	​	​	Mar 30th​	2,969​
​	​	Mar 24th​	6,820​	​	​	Apr 1st​	4,032​	​	​	Mar 31st​	3,737​
		Mar 25th	7,503			Apr 2nd				Apr 1st
		Mar 26th	8,215							Apr 2nd

​

 

[Arruda]

If it's sunny, I command you to go outside naked and stand in the sun for 10 minutes.

I've alredy done that. Fell asleep in strong sunlight, it was warm despite being early spring. I was a bit obsessed with that vitamin D thing, having spent so little time in the outside in the past few weeks.


On another note, that German study seemed quite intuitive to me. It was already obvious that the religious meeting was the bomb in South Korea. I had my meltdown here in the 2nd of March which was the day a Santa Clara - Porto was played here in Azores. What could go wrong by having a football match were a few hundred people from Porto came to mingle with thousands of Azoreans. When I realized the game wasn't going to be cancelled I simply broke down. Just a few weeks later Italians were adamant that football games were a "biologic bomb".

I think that 14 days quarantine is not enough if testing isn't done. It seems safe enough to rule out disease with a negative test, but I think symptomatic disease takes a bit more time to develop, so we are lifting quarantines of potentially undiagnosed positive cases. When we actually test someone and it brings out a positive result we reset the quarantine unt they're clear. Now things are getting really hairy here and I think that's the reason. Our biggest identified transmission chain is a group of 20 local politicians and entrepreneurs who returned from Toronto in the 10th of March. Many were already off quarantine when we realized they were positive.

It's going to be hell in here in a few days. Our hospital is already compromised. Our health authority is ruled by a nurse with zero credentials in public health and he's quite full of himself. It's like putting a skilled handyman in charge of building a bridge instead of an engineer. Nothing tondo with him being a nurse, he's just dumb. My vigilance team is lead by an nurse who spent her entire life in public health, and she's brilliant. But we're stuck with whoever has political power at the time.

Mistakes all over the place in one of the poorest regions in Western Europe. Of nine islands only three small ones have yet to have cases. Thankfully zero deaths so far, but this will change dramatically in days.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

I've alredy done that. Fell asleep in strong sunlight, it was warm despite being early spring. I was a bit obsessed with that vitamin D thing, having spent so little time in the outside in the past few weeks.


On another note, that German study seemed quite intuitive to me. It was already obvious that the religious meeting was the bomb in South Korea. I had my meltdown here in the 2nd of March which was the day a Santa Clara - Porto was played here in Azores. What could go wrong by having a football match were a few hundred people from Porto came to mingle with thousands of Azoreans. When I realized the game wasn't going to be cancelled I simply broke down. Just a few weeks later Italians were adamant that football games were a "biologic bomb".

I think that 14 days quarantine is not enough if testing isn't done. It seems safe enough to rule out disease with a negative test, but I think symptomatic disease takes a bit more time to develop, so we are lifting quarantines of potentially undiagnosed positive cases. When we actually test someone and it brings out a positive result we reset the quarantine unt they're clear. Now things are getting really hairy here and I think that's the reason. Our biggest identified transmission chain is a group of 20 local politicians and entrepreneurs who returned from Toronto in the 10th of March. Many were already off quarantine when we realized they were positive.

It's going to be hell in here in a few days. Our hospital is already compromised. Our health authority is ruled by a nurse with zero credentials in public health and he's quite full of himself. It's like putting a skilled handyman in charge of building a bridge instead of an engineer. Nothing tondo with him being a nurse, he's just dumb. My vigilance team is lead by an nurse who spent her entire life in public health, and she's brilliant. But we're stuck with whoever has political power at the time.

Mistakes all over the place in one of the poorest regions in Western Europe. Of nine islands only three small ones have yet to have cases. Thankfully zero deaths so far, but this will change dramatically in days.

Stay safe and well my friend.

I just had to fill my car up with gas. While I was waiting to pay (two meters behind a guy buying fecking lottery tickets) a woman came up and stood right behind me. It's unbelievable.

 

[Sweet Square]

Another sensationalist graph and headlines to have UK doing bad. UK is behind in the outbreak, Spain who is somehow getting kudos points for topping out at ~900 deaths went through the same jump with more deaths per day from 200-300 to 500 to 700 to 800-900. You can plot the same alarming graph of no plateau with the same headlines for Spain during this time 1-2 weeks ago.

If UK goes on to have 1000 then 1200 deaths then fine no problem but the FT graph doesn't point to that happening or not, with how poor the NHS is we just well might but this idea of Spain plateauing so we should be now right now and ignoring UK and Spain are at different timelines and ignoring Spain went through this exponential rise is disingenuous. We're 1-2 weeks down the road and hitting Degner while Spain is at the Spoon curve on Suzuka, we can't take the corner Spain is on, we're going through Degner that Spain went through 1-2 weeks ago. We'll see if we top out like Spain and Italy have at 800-900 per day.

Oddly similar 3 deaths as a starting point?

Er......did you not see this tweet ?

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Would be quite hard to spin that it should be I suppose.

 

[Lj82]

there seems to be a lot of praise for countries testing 50k, 75, 100k people per day. but what this has essentially meant is that these countries have 'stockpiled' the testing kits available on the world market, leaving other countries (admittedly ones who weren't as quick to realise the need, but nonetheless) scrambling around for whatever they can. surely there should be some international pressure for these countries to share these kits around a bit more to countries who aren't able to test effectively, in particular key health workers? stockpiling testing kits is the international equivalent of buying 10 packs of bog roll. yet these countries hoarding are praised for it.

Erm.... maybe some of these countries produced the kits themselves?

 

[nimic]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Hope they vote this cockroach out of office.

Holy feck, that's shameful even for him.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Apologies for the question but i want to understand if and how measures are showing results.

Out of ROI, NI, Wales, Scotland and England, which has most disciplined general public ?

And does the numbers (infections and deceased) match that discipline? Or is it having little effect?

I can't say for certain but I think if I was pushed to pick I would say, we English generally like to be disciplined most.

 

[Grinner]

I saw 917 deaths in the US today.

 

[bonothom]

Yep, I agree. Even it being 10 times higher would be great news.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ancing-measures-ex-who-official-says-11967018

"He pointed out that studies of restricted samples of people infected with coronavirus, including those on cruise ships, indicated that around half of those who contract the illness have no symptoms. "

If half of the people that have it don't even know they've got it your probably talking at least 10 times probably more I would have thought.

 

[Relevated]

Here's a curious question.

Is every person who works at hospital at a huge huge risk? For example, how likely is it for a receptionist to catch this compared to a cleaner?

 

[0le]

I really wish the Financial Times would stop calling that graph just a "log" graph. It is actually "semi-log" graph, which means only one of the axes is logarithmic. This is significant because if both axes were logarithmic, i.e. "log-log" scales, a straight line would actually represent a power-law relationship i.e. f(x) = ax^b + c where a,b,c are constants as opposed to an exponential function which is described as f(x) = a^x + b where a and b are constants.

 

[Arruda]

Here's a curious question.

Is every person who works at hospital at a huge huge risk? For example, how likely is it for a receptionist to catch this compared to a cleaner?

It would depend on the specifics of the situation. A friend of mine posted a picture today on something that looks almost like an astronaut space suit.

Meanwhile I work in close proximity with about 30 other healthcare workers and I take alcohol to sterilize my computer and phone because in some days there is none to be found there.

 

[Prometheus]

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ancing-measures-ex-who-official-says-11967018

"He pointed out that studies of restricted samples of people infected with coronavirus, including those on cruise ships, indicated that around half of those who contract the illness have no symptoms. "

If half of the people that have it don't even know they've got it your probably talking at least 10 times probably more I would have thought.

The data from cruise ships showed that it was 17%, not half. It was half at first but more people started developing symptoms later. Either the person who wrote the article is misinformed or the professor they interviewed isn't really up-to-date with the matter. Also I don't really get the logic for the bold bit.

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

The data from cruise ships showed that it was 17%, not half. It was half at first but more people started developing symptoms later. Either the person who wrote the article is misinformed or the professor they interviewed isn't really up-to-date with the matter. Also I don't really get the logic for the bold bit.

There is a possibility of mutated forms of the disease varying in severity. It is likely that all of those on the Diamond Princess has the same strain. It is believed to has since evolved into a number of different strains, which could mean a number of people have a form of coronavirus which is milder than others.

Only conjecture on my part, really.

 

[ryansgirl]

I don’t know why you keep dancing round the point here. Sweden’s approach will only be proved wrong or right in another two or three weeks time. All the opinions coming out of all the countries whose epidemic is much more advanced than Sweden’s is that they profoundly regret not shutting down sooner. Time will tell if Sweden has some unique traits that will allow it to take a different approach, without enduring the same tragedy as Italy or Spain.

Ah yes, the 'unique traits' assertion that was being put about in March in Japan. Not by me. Everything from green tea to Japanese old people are thin and not fat like westerners and in between such as all the sushi/ fish consumption somehow lowered Japan's rates of infections. Personally I don't eat much sushi or fish here at all because I don't like to be poisoned slowly by heavy metals, dioxins etc. That's also a problem in our countries but at least a significant number of people know that tuna especially is toxic. You won't get far telling that to most Japanese, educated or not.

Then the Olympics were cancelled and suddenly we have a 'severe' situation that could turn into a health 'crisis' with not enough beds! Who would have thought?
Every country has its own characteristics but it's nonsense to suggest that somehow any country can be a genuine outlier here. I knew Japan was certainly not an outlier because the authorities were running fast from any real testing and the society operates like a cartel so there were no medical experts apart from one willing to put themselves out there and call russian roulette on it all.

The near-fascists masquerading as the Japanese Government blew all the money on the Olympics and assorted kickbacks to construction companies etc. In my street alone three companies proclaiming they were building new nasty little cheap apartments 'because of the Olympics' were simply taking advantage of lenient regulations for Olympic-related housing. They were hammering away in our narrow street from 7.30am to 7pm at night. And that's only one small example of the rorts going on.

As for Italy and Spain - don't forget nearly half a million Chinese citizens were living and working in the north of Italy. I'm not blaming them. I'm just pointing out that a highly mobile Chinese population travelling back and forth between China and Italy was bound to have a big effect on virus numbers and its spread. Same in Australia. Dual citizens and interntional students from China in addition to tourists spread it around but Australia's geographically much bigger than Italy. I'm not saying they were the only ones but they were responsible for the first wave, the second wave now in Oz is coming from everybody returning from international travel. Sweden didn't and doesn't have the same situation.

 

[4bars]

Another sensationalist graph and headlines to have UK doing bad. UK is behind in the outbreak, Spain who is somehow getting kudos points for topping out at ~900 deaths went through the same jump with more deaths per day from 200-300 to 500 to 700 to 800-900. You can plot the same alarming graph of no plateau with the same headlines for Spain during this time 1-2 weeks ago.

If UK goes on to have 1000 then 1200 deaths then fine no problem but the FT graph doesn't point to that happening or not, with how poor the NHS is we just well might but this idea of Spain plateauing so we should be now right now and ignoring UK and Spain are at different timelines and ignoring Spain went through this exponential rise is disingenuous. We're 1-2 weeks down the road and hitting Degner while Spain is at the Spoon curve on Suzuka, we can't take the corner Spain is on, we're going through Degner that Spain went through 1-2 weeks ago. We'll see if we top out like Spain and Italy have at 800-900 per day.

Oddly similar 3 deaths as a starting point?

​

United Kingdom Dates​	UK Deaths​	Italy Dates​	Italy Deaths​	Spain Dates​	Spain Deaths​	France Dates​	France Deaths​	Germany Dates​	Germany Deaths​	USA Dates​	USA Deaths​
Mar 8th​	3​	Feb-23rd​	3​	Mar 5th​	3​	Mar 2nd​	3​	Mar 11th​	3​	Mar 1st​	2​
Mar 9th​	5​	Feb 24th​	7​	Mar 6th​	8​	Mar 3rd​	4​	Mar 12th​	5​	Mar 2nd​	6​
Mar 10th​	6​	Feb 25th​	11​	Mar 7th​	10​	Mar 4th​	4​	Mar 13th​	8​	Mar 3rd​	9​
Mar 11th​	8​	Feb 26th​	12​	Mar 8th​	17​	Mar 5th​	7​	Mar 14th​	8​	Mar 4th​	11​
Mar 12th​	10​	Feb 27th​	17​	Mar 9th​	30​	Mar 6th​	9​	Mar 15th​	12​	Mar 5th​	11​
Mar 13th​	11​	Feb 28th​	21​	Mar 10th​	36​	Mar 7th​	16​	Mar 16th​	12​	Mar 6th​	14​
Mar 14th​	21​	Feb 29th​	29​	Mar 11th​	55​	Mar 8th​	19​	Mar 17th​	12​	Mar 7th​	19​
Mar 15th​	35​	Mar 1st​	41​	Mar 12th​	86​	Mar 9th​	30​	Mar 18th​	12​	Mar 8th​	21​
Mar 16th​	55​	Mar 2nd​	52​	Mar 13th​	133​	Mar 10th​	33​	Mar 19th​	20​	Mar 9th​	26​
Mar 17th​	71​	Mar 3rd​	79​	Mar 14th​	196​	Mar 11th​	48​	Mar 20th​	31​	Mar 10th​	31​
Mar 18th​	104​	Mar 4th​	107​	Mar 15th​	294​	Mar 12th​	61​	Mar 21st​	47​	Mar 11th​	37​
Mar 19th​	144​	Mar 5th​	148​	Mar 16th​	342​	Mar 13th​	79​	Mar-22nd​	55​	Mar 12th​	41​
Mar 20th​	177​	Mar 6th​	197​	Mar 17th​	533​	Mar 14th​	91​	Mar 23rd​	86​	Mar 13th​	49​
Mar 21st​	233​	Mar 7th​	233​	Mar 18th​	638​	Mar 15th​	127​	Mar 24th​	114​	Mar 14th​	55​
Mar 22nd​	281​	Mar 8th​	366​	Mar 19th​	833​	Mar 16th​	148​	Mar 25th​	149​	Mar 15th​	62​
Mar 23rd​	335​	Mar 9th​	463​	Mar 20th​	1,093​	Mar 17th​	175​	Mar 26th​	198​	Mar 16th​	76​
Mar 24th​	422​	Mar 10th​	631​	Mar 21st​	1,381​	Mar 18th​	244​	Mar 27th​	253​	Mar 17th​	97​
Mar 25th​	468​	Mar 11th​	827​	Mar 22nd​	1,813​	Mar 19th​	372​	Mar 28th​	325​	Mar 18th​	123​
Mar 26th​	578​	Mar 12th​	1,016​	Mar 23rd​	2,207​	Mar 20th​	450​	Mar 29th​	389​	Mar19th​	175​
Mar 27th​	759​	Mar 13th​	1,266​	Mar 24th​	2,696​	Mar 21st​	562​	Mar 30th​	455​	Mar 20th​	230​
Mar 28th​	1,019​	Mar 14th​	1,441​	Mar 25th​	3,434​	Mar 22nd​	674​	Mar 31st​	600​	Mar 21st​	298​
Mar 29th​	1,228​	Mar 15th​	1,809​	Mar 26th​	4,145​	Mar 23rd​	860​	Apr 1st​	732​	Mar 22nd​	408​
Mar 30th​	1,408​	Mar 16th​	2,158​	Mar 27th​	4,858​	Mar 24th​	1100​	​	​	Mar 23rd​	519​
Mar 31st​	1,789​	Mar 17th​	2,503​	Mar 28th​	5,690​	Mar 25th​	1331​	​	​	Mar 24th​	681​
Apr 1st​	2,352​	Mar 18th​	2,978​	Mar 29th​	6,528​	Mar 26th​	1,696​	​	​	Mar 25th​	906​
Apr 2nd​	​	Mar 19th​	3,405​	Mar 30th​	7,340​	Mar 27th​	1,995​	​	​	Mar 26th​	1,159​
​	​	Mar 20th​	4,032​	Mar 31st​	8,189​	Mar 28th​	2,314​	​	​	Mar 27th​	1,592​
​	​	Mar 21st​	4,825​	Apr 1st​	9,053​	Mar 29th​	2,606​	​	​	Mar 28th​	2,039​
​	​	Mar 22nd​	5,475​	Apr 2nd​	​	Mar 30th​	3,024​	​	​	Mar 29th​	2,452​
​	​	Mar 23rd​	6,077​	​	​	Mar 31st​	3,523​	​	​	Mar 30th​	2,969​
​	​	Mar 24th​	6,820​	​	​	Apr 1st​	4,032​	​	​	Mar 31st​	3,737​
		Mar 25th	7,503			Apr 2nd				Apr 1st
		Mar 26th	8,215							Apr 2nd

​

I liked your raw data and I had been following it since the beginning, thank you. It helps to get a picture of the situation. But I believe that the graphs that I had been positing everyday and that today @Sweet Square posted STEALING MY feckING JOB!!! are in agreement with your data but the author, as I mentioned one of the days because @Sweet Square is not doing MY JOB WELL!!!... is counting from the 10th day of infection. Probably because the beginning is too randomly to take in account? but I must confess that I don't know much about statistic methods. I just love numbers and try to understand the situation that we are living in. If we take your numbers (and percentage of growth) and we use his method will see that UK is following Italy's path. And most important, his % is ramping up for the last 3 days compared with Italy and is matching Spain's growth when they were around 2000 deaths. Again, please someone correct me as maybe I must be talking bollocks. But would you agree with me? Of course we would need to agree if it is more realistic take it from the 1st death or the 10th. And of course % goes smaller as bigger the numbers. That is why is call reaching the peak. But by percentage at 2000 deaths, Uk is slightly worse than Italy to reach the peak (so improvement needs to be made)

Uk dates​	UK deaths​	UK %​	Italy Dates​	Italy Deaths​	Italy %​	Spain Dates​	Spain Deaths​	Spain %​
Mar 12th​	10​	25,00%​	Feb 25th​	11​	57,14%​	Mar 7th​	10​	25,00%​
Mar 13th​	11​	10,00%​	Feb 26th​	12​	9,09%​	Mar 8th​	17​	70,00%​
Mar 14th​	21​	90,91%​	Feb 27th​	17​	41,67%​	Mar 9th​	30​	76,47%​
Mar 15th​	35​	66,67%​	Feb 28th​	21​	23,53%​	Mar 10th​	36​	20,00%​
Mar 16th​	55​	57,14%​	Feb 29th​	29​	38,10%​	Mar 11th​	55​	52,78%​
Mar 17th​	71​	29,09%​	Mar 1st​	41​	41,38%​	Mar 12th​	86​	56,36%​
Mar 18th​	104​	46,48%​	Mar 2nd​	52​	26,83%​	Mar 13th​	133​	54,65%​
Mar 19th​	144​	38,46%​	Mar 3rd​	79​	51,92%​	Mar 14th​	196​	47,37%​
Mar 20th​	177​	22,92%​	Mar 4th​	107​	35,44%​	Mar 15th​	294​	50,00%​
Mar 21st​	233​	31,64%​	Mar 5th​	148​	38,32%​	Mar 16th​	342​	16,33%​
Mar 22nd​	281​	20,60%​	Mar 6th​	197​	33,11%​	Mar 17th​	533​	55,85%​
Mar 23rd​	335​	19,22%​	Mar 7th​	233​	18,27%​	Mar 18th​	639​	19,89%​
Mar 24th​	422​	25,97%​	Mar 8th​	366​	57,08%​	Mar 19th​	833​	30,36%​
Mar 25th​	468​	10,90%​	Mar 9th​	463​	26,50%​	Mar 20th​	1093​	31,21%​
Mar 26th​	578​	23,50%​	Mar 10th​	631​	36,29%​	Mar 21st​	1381​	26,35%​
Mar 27th​	759​	31,31%​	Mar 11th​	827​	31,06%​	Mar 22nd​	1813​	31,28%​
Mar 28th​	1019​	34,26%​	Mar 12th​	1016​	22,85%​	Mar 23rd​	2207​	21,73%​
Mar 29th​	1228​	20,51%​	Mar 13th​	1266​	24,61%​	Mar 24th​	2696​	22,16%​
Mar 30th​	1408​	14,66%​	Mar 14th​	1441​	13,82%​	Mar 25th​	3434​	27,37%​
Mar 31st​	1789​	27,06%​	Mar 15th​	1809​	25,54%​	Mar 26th​	4145​	20,70%​
Apr 1st​	2352​	31,47%​	Mar 16th​	2158​	19,29%​	Mar 27th​	4858​	17,20%​
Apr 2nd​	​		Mar 17th​	2503​	15,99%​	Mar 28th​	5690​	17,13%​
​	​		Mar 18th​	2978​	18,98%​	Mar 29th​	6528​	14,73%​
​	​		Mar 19th​	3405​	14,34%​	Mar 30th​	7240​	10,91%​
​	​		Mar 20th​	4032​	18,41%​	Mar 31st​	8189​	13,11%​
​	​		Mar 21st​	4825​	19,67%​	Apr 1st​	9053​	10,55%​
​	​		Mar 22nd​	5475​	13,47%​	Apr 2nd​	​
			Mar 23rd​	6077​	11,00%​	​	​
			Mar 24th​	6820​	12,23%​	​	​
​	​	​	Mar 25th​	7503​	10,01%​
​	​	​	Mar 26th​	8215​	9,49%​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​

steal that @Sweet Square

 

[ryansgirl]

It would depend on the specifics of the situation. A friend of mine posted a picture today on something that looks almost like an astronaut space suit.

Meanwhile I work in close proximity with about 30 other healthcare workers and I take alcohol to sterilize my computer and phone because in some days there is none to be found there.

Power and safety to you Sir or Madame! I can't begin to imagine what it would be like to be involved in any part of the medical system at the moment.
You and your counterparts around the world are heroes. If anything positive comes from this pandemic, hopefully the public will not forget your service and demand that the people they elect pay you what you deserve and give you the better conditions you deserve.
Endless Respect To You All Wherever You Are.

 

[bonothom]

There is a possibility of mutated forms of the disease varying in severity. It is likely that all of those on the Diamond Princess has the same strain. It is believed to has since evolved into a number of different strains, which could mean a number of people have a form of coronavirus which is milder than others.

Only conjecture on my part, really.

Viral load could also be a reason why some people get a mild illness or a severe illness.

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...-load-or-infectious-dose-make-covid-19-worse/

 

[Prometheus]

There is a possibility of mutated forms of the disease varying in severity. It is likely that all of those on the Diamond Princess has the same strain. It is believed to has since evolved into a number of different strains, which could mean a number of people have a form of coronavirus which is milder than others.

Only conjecture on my part, really.

Don't take my word for it, but I've heard because it's so slow to mutate, the strains are essentially identical.

 

[Revan]

I had a debate here if masks are helpful or not. Here from Fauci who says that 'in a perfect world with unlimited supplied, everyone wearing a mask would help stop the spread'.

 

[kouroux]

Viral load could also be a reason why some people get a mild illness or a severe illness.

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...-load-or-infectious-dose-make-covid-19-worse/

This would explain in part why some people of the medical system get sick and die from it, they get exposed to the worst cases and therefore contaminated.

 

[berbatrick]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Not sure if these are going to be tested post-mortem and added retroactively or if this is an insane and unbelivable coincidence.

 

[berbatrick]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Am I missing something? I think this goes beyond incompetence, this is malice.

 

[berbatrick]

Back to scumbag status then

it passed

 

[Dargonk]

Not really a surprise that deaths are not capturing everyone. Unless everyone is tested post death, a lot will be missed. And then there will be a decent amount of additional deaths as a result of Covid-19 taking up resources that would have otherwise been able to save people normally. I highly doubt those deaths will ever be classified as a result of the virus.

Realistically the only true indication of the actual death toll will be from comparing number of deaths between the year before with this years. That should at least show a trend and spike.

 

[Hernandez - BFA]

I’m positive for Covid19 as of yesterday. I’ve been dealing with so many patients recently that any one of them may have given it to me. I’ve worn a (surgical) mask every single time I saw a patient, wore gloves, asked them to look the opposite direction while I take bloods from their arm.

I’m feeling pretty damn rough. The headache is nauseating and constant. The dry cough has become more frequent. I’ve bought a pulse oximetry device that should arrive today as that’s the best indicator of when you’re starting to go downhill.

Our hospital was about to abolish “specialities” from next week too. Everyone becomes a Covid doctor and assigned a random ward every week.
There was a meeting on Tuesday that I missed that said that the hospital are expecting 150 to a 1000 Covid patients to be admitted within the next month or so. Shits getting real in Wales (although the Newport area seems to be the worst hit in the UK going by “per capita” or something like that).

 

[Lj82]

I’m positive for Covid19 as of yesterday. I’ve been dealing with so many patients recently that any one of them may have given it to me. I’ve worn a (surgical) mask every single time I saw a patient, wore gloves, asked them to look the opposite direction while I take bloods from their arm.

I’m feeling pretty damn rough. The headache is nauseating and constant. The dry cough has become more frequent. I’ve bought a pulse oximetry device that should arrive today as that’s the best indicator of when you’re starting to go downhill.

Our hospital was about to abolish “specialities” from next week too. Everyone becomes a Covid doctor and assigned a random ward every week.
There was a meeting on Tuesday that I missed that said that the hospital are expecting 150 to a 1000 Covid patients to be admitted within the next month or so. Shits getting real in Wales (although the Newport area seems to be the worst hit in the UK going by “per capita” or something like that).

Take care. Hope you get well soon.

 

[Lebowski]

I’m positive for Covid19 as of yesterday. I’ve been dealing with so many patients recently that any one of them may have given it to me. I’ve worn a (surgical) mask every single time I saw a patient, wore gloves, asked them to look the opposite direction while I take bloods from their arm.

I’m feeling pretty damn rough. The headache is nauseating and constant. The dry cough has become more frequent. I’ve bought a pulse oximetry device that should arrive today as that’s the best indicator of when you’re starting to go downhill.

Our hospital was about to abolish “specialities” from next week too. Everyone becomes a Covid doctor and assigned a random ward every week.
There was a meeting on Tuesday that I missed that said that the hospital are expecting 150 to a 1000 Covid patients to be admitted within the next month or so. Shits getting real in Wales (although the Newport area seems to be the worst hit in the UK going by “per capita” or something like that).

Stay rested and healthy mate, you and your colleagues are fecking heroes and I hope that will never again be forgotten.

If you don't mind me asking, was this the first time you were tested or has there been a semi-regular testing programme for HCP exhibiting symptoms in your hospital?

 

[Wibble]

I really wish the Financial Times would stop calling that graph just a "log" graph. It is actually "semi-log" graph, which means only one of the axes is logarithmic. This is significant because if both axes were logarithmic, i.e. "log-log" scales, a straight line would actually represent a power-law relationship i.e. f(x) = ax^b + c where a,b,c are constants as opposed to an exponential function which is described as f(x) = a^x + b where a and b are constants.

I was just saying the same to the missus

You are totally correct - just joking to lighten my stressful day

 

[Wibble]

I’m positive for Covid19 as of yesterday. I’ve been dealing with so many patients recently that any one of them may have given it to me. I’ve worn a (surgical) mask every single time I saw a patient, wore gloves, asked them to look the opposite direction while I take bloods from their arm.

I’m feeling pretty damn rough. The headache is nauseating and constant. The dry cough has become more frequent. I’ve bought a pulse oximetry device that should arrive today as that’s the best indicator of when you’re starting to go downhill.

Our hospital was about to abolish “specialities” from next week too. Everyone becomes a Covid doctor and assigned a random ward every week.
There was a meeting on Tuesday that I missed that said that the hospital are expecting 150 to a 1000 Covid patients to be admitted within the next month or so. Shits getting real in Wales (although the Newport area seems to be the worst hit in the UK going by “per capita” or something like that).

Try to look after yourself mate

 

[kouroux]

I’m positive for Covid19 as of yesterday. I’ve been dealing with so many patients recently that any one of them may have given it to me. I’ve worn a (surgical) mask every single time I saw a patient, wore gloves, asked them to look the opposite direction while I take bloods from their arm.

I’m feeling pretty damn rough. The headache is nauseating and constant. The dry cough has become more frequent. I’ve bought a pulse oximetry device that should arrive today as that’s the best indicator of when you’re starting to go downhill.

Our hospital was about to abolish “specialities” from next week too. Everyone becomes a Covid doctor and assigned a random ward every week.
There was a meeting on Tuesday that I missed that said that the hospital are expecting 150 to a 1000 Covid patients to be admitted within the next month or so. Shits getting real in Wales (although the Newport area seems to be the worst hit in the UK going by “per capita” or something like that).

.

Best wishes of recovery. It's unfair that the people who work in the medical field are also the ones who are very exposed to contamination

 

[0le]

I’m positive for Covid19 as of yesterday. I’ve been dealing with so many patients recently that any one of them may have given it to me. I’ve worn a (surgical) mask every single time I saw a patient, wore gloves, asked them to look the opposite direction while I take bloods from their arm.

I’m feeling pretty damn rough. The headache is nauseating and constant. The dry cough has become more frequent. I’ve bought a pulse oximetry device that should arrive today as that’s the best indicator of when you’re starting to go downhill.

Our hospital was about to abolish “specialities” from next week too. Everyone becomes a Covid doctor and assigned a random ward every week.
There was a meeting on Tuesday that I missed that said that the hospital are expecting 150 to a 1000 Covid patients to be admitted within the next month or so. Shits getting real in Wales (although the Newport area seems to be the worst hit in the UK going by “per capita” or something like that).

Unfortunately surgical masks offer little to no protection against the inhalation of droplets produced from sneezing/coughing by infected patients.

 

[Winrar]

I’m positive for Covid19 as of yesterday. I’ve been dealing with so many patients recently that any one of them may have given it to me. I’ve worn a (surgical) mask every single time I saw a patient, wore gloves, asked them to look the opposite direction while I take bloods from their arm.

I’m feeling pretty damn rough. The headache is nauseating and constant. The dry cough has become more frequent. I’ve bought a pulse oximetry device that should arrive today as that’s the best indicator of when you’re starting to go downhill.

Our hospital was about to abolish “specialities” from next week too. Everyone becomes a Covid doctor and assigned a random ward every week.
There was a meeting on Tuesday that I missed that said that the hospital are expecting 150 to a 1000 Covid patients to be admitted within the next month or so. Shits getting real in Wales (although the Newport area seems to be the worst hit in the UK going by “per capita” or something like that).

Shoot, that sounds pretty serious. Really hoping for your full recovery.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

I’m positive for Covid19 as of yesterday. I’ve been dealing with so many patients recently that any one of them may have given it to me. I’ve worn a (surgical) mask every single time I saw a patient, wore gloves, asked them to look the opposite direction while I take bloods from their arm.

I’m feeling pretty damn rough. The headache is nauseating and constant. The dry cough has become more frequent. I’ve bought a pulse oximetry device that should arrive today as that’s the best indicator of when you’re starting to go downhill.

Our hospital was about to abolish “specialities” from next week too. Everyone becomes a Covid doctor and assigned a random ward every week.
There was a meeting on Tuesday that I missed that said that the hospital are expecting 150 to a 1000 Covid patients to be admitted within the next month or so. Shits getting real in Wales (although the Newport area seems to be the worst hit in the UK going by “per capita” or something like that).

Get well soon

 

[Penna]

Really sorry to hear this, @Hernandez - BFA, I hope your symptoms improve soon.

 

[Hernandez - BFA]

Appreciate the kind words guys. I’m calm about it, just need to be sensible and realise the stage when I may need to escalate things. Majority of people won’t need hospital admission so hopeful I fall in that category

Stay rested and healthy mate, you and your colleagues are fecking heroes and I hope that will never again be forgotten.

If you don't mind me asking, was this the first time you were tested or has there been a semi-regular testing programme for HCP exhibiting symptoms in your hospital?

Yeah first time I’ve been tested. To be fair, they were pretty quick about the whole thing. I rang my “line manager” saying I had fever, a dry cough and a sore throat and within a few hours I had a call from Occupational Health saying that I had a test the next day.

 

[Bestie07]

I’m positive for Covid19 as of yesterday. I’ve been dealing with so many patients recently that any one of them may have given it to me. I’ve worn a (surgical) mask every single time I saw a patient, wore gloves, asked them to look the opposite direction while I take bloods from their arm.

I’m feeling pretty damn rough. The headache is nauseating and constant. The dry cough has become more frequent. I’ve bought a pulse oximetry device that should arrive today as that’s the best indicator of when you’re starting to go downhill.

Our hospital was about to abolish “specialities” from next week too. Everyone becomes a Covid doctor and assigned a random ward every week.
There was a meeting on Tuesday that I missed that said that the hospital are expecting 150 to a 1000 Covid patients to be admitted within the next month or so. Shits getting real in Wales (although the Newport area seems to be the worst hit in the UK going by “per capita” or something like that).

You're a hero. Get well soon!

 

[Fiskey]

I’m positive for Covid19 as of yesterday. I’ve been dealing with so many patients recently that any one of them may have given it to me. I’ve worn a (surgical) mask every single time I saw a patient, wore gloves, asked them to look the opposite direction while I take bloods from their arm.

I’m feeling pretty damn rough. The headache is nauseating and constant. The dry cough has become more frequent. I’ve bought a pulse oximetry device that should arrive today as that’s the best indicator of when you’re starting to go downhill.

Our hospital was about to abolish “specialities” from next week too. Everyone becomes a Covid doctor and assigned a random ward every week.
There was a meeting on Tuesday that I missed that said that the hospital are expecting 150 to a 1000 Covid patients to be admitted within the next month or so. Shits getting real in Wales (although the Newport area seems to be the worst hit in the UK going by “per capita” or something like that).

Get well soon.

 

[onemanarmy]

I’m positive for Covid19 as of yesterday. I’ve been dealing with so many patients recently that any one of them may have given it to me. I’ve worn a (surgical) mask every single time I saw a patient, wore gloves, asked them to look the opposite direction while I take bloods from their arm.

I’m feeling pretty damn rough. The headache is nauseating and constant. The dry cough has become more frequent. I’ve bought a pulse oximetry device that should arrive today as that’s the best indicator of when you’re starting to go downhill.

Our hospital was about to abolish “specialities” from next week too. Everyone becomes a Covid doctor and assigned a random ward every week.
There was a meeting on Tuesday that I missed that said that the hospital are expecting 150 to a 1000 Covid patients to be admitted within the next month or so. Shits getting real in Wales (although the Newport area seems to be the worst hit in the UK going by “per capita” or something like that).

Take care man.