Take care buddy, we are all thinking of you, I'm not too far away from you so when this all blows over and life starts to come back to normality I'm taking you for several beers!!
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
May very well hold you to that!
Get well soon,man.
Get well soon!
What could be an apt word to describe being fed-up with Covid news?
I'm that.
Maybe coverload? I dunno.
I'm that.
Maybe coverload? I dunno.
Best wishes take care of yourself.
Wishing for Covexit?
Papers across the spectrum absolutely hammering the government today and not before time.
Sick of hearing what a "great job they're doing".
Sick of hearing what a "great job they're doing".
Why do people insist on comparing apples and oranges?
All the very best @Hernandez - BFA
I can only imagine they didn't want a mutiny on their hands when all the other nurses were unprotected, but still yes, this is unacceptable.
Godspeed man, wish you a swift recovery. I am sure you'll be fine in good time, but stay safe. My sister's family are currently recovering from it - they were not tested so of course, we don't know for sure, but there is a definite infection chain that can realistically be traced for them and she's a GP so is well-placed to know when something is not just the flu. Luckily, they all suffered mild symptoms for the most part, they had 2-3 days of being very rough but now are well on the road to being back to normal. She's finally braving the food shop today, they've been quarantined for around 10-14days I think altogether as a family.
Because people don't think logically most of the time. Even less so when stressed.
Yeah you can see that for the opening period of the outbreak the papers were acting as the mouthpiece for the government (which I firmly believe to be the case all the time to be honest, no different to most other countries) but now things have gotten very serious indeed, they can no longer lie to the people and defend their masters. I don't think the government have done entirely badly, they have tried to do some good things but overall yeah they've botched it.
Why is this an apples and oranges scenario? Surely it’s really directed to By the governments responses to the pandemic?
1 appears to have been hugely successful whilst one far less so.
Within one of the guardian articles about testing of the NHS workers self-isolating they said from the small sample that only 15% were infected.
It's a small sample so you can't conclude too much but these are people at higher risk of contact so at 15% the idea that's its widely spread amongst the general population but they just don't know seems very unlikely.
My point was the implication that now Spain has hit a plateau suddenly UK should be out of nowhere. I've shown in the figures 1-2 weeks ago Spain had a large increase day after day, that's where UK is at right now. It would be like me plotting the graph 1-2 weeks ago for Spain with the same headlines saying Spain should be plateauing at 300-500 deaths because this other country is now plateauing, that would be silly and it's what FT have done.I liked your raw data and I had been following it since the beginning, thank you. It helps to get a picture of the situation. But I believe that the graphs that I had been positing everyday and that today @Sweet Square posted STEALING MY feckING JOB!!!are in agreement with your data but the author, as I mentioned one of the days because @Sweet Square is not doing MY JOB WELL!!!... is counting from the 10th day of infection. Probably because the beginning is too randomly to take in account? but I must confess that I don't know much about statistic methods. I just love numbers and try to understand the situation that we are living in. If we take your numbers (and percentage of growth) and we use his method will see that UK is following Italy's path. And most important, his % is ramping up for the last 3 days compared with Italy and is matching Spain's growth when they were around 2000 deaths. Again, please someone correct me as maybe I must be talking bollocks. But would you agree with me? Of course we would need to agree if it is more realistic take it from the 1st death or the 10th. And of course % goes smaller as bigger the numbers. That is why is call reaching the peak. But by percentage at 2000 deaths, Uk is slightly worse than Italy to reach the peak (so improvement needs to be made)
steal that @Sweet Square
Ill join!
Get well soon BFA! do you think it’s worth others buying a pulse oximetry incase?
It's testament to how talentless this government are that they put so much effort into avoiding criticism...and even fails at that.
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I haven't looked at the FT graph, but the later hit countries do seem to be plateauing earlier as they learn from the experiences of countries like Italy.
Thanks for the response, the fast response is slightly better than some stories I have heard and at least at this stage in the crisis we have enough testing kits where they need to be that front line staff can get a next day test if they exhibit multiple symptoms.Appreciate the kind words guys. I’m calm about it, just need to be sensible and realise the stage when I may need to escalate things. Majority of people won’t need hospital admission so hopeful I fall in that category
Yeah first time I’ve been tested. To be fair, they were pretty quick about the whole thing. I rang my “line manager” saying I had fever, a dry cough and a sore throat and within a few hours I had a call from Occupational Health saying that I had a test the next day.
My mother works for the local CCG and their reaction has been along those lines- the existing hospital departments are responding well to schedule tests and manage shifts and rotas to keep the service as well manned as possible, but they are limited by the larger scale planning and national logistics, which have left an awful lot to he desired (too few tests and too late).
In an ideal world you would have periodic testing for all HCP and cleaners so that they can isolate when they are infectious before exhibiting symptoms and then return to work when they have recovered.
It's difficult to know how prepared any country can truly be for an unprecedented global pandemic, but if the people paid enormous salaries to plan for events like this have been asleep at the wheel or ignored by policymakers and that has endangered front line staff, then there should still be accountability and lessons should be learned.
I hope you make a speedy recovery and can enjoy a spell of much needed rest without feeling one iota of regret for being temporarily sidelined and taken from the front line continuing the fight. Get well soon.
The YouGov data is quite illustrative on the other side of that discussion: what the average person thinks.
Obviously Asia are more accustomed to it than Europe in general, but in the likes of Italy, France and Spain there's been a huge uptake in just two weeks. 26% of Italians said they wore a mask on March 11th, by March 25th that had jumped up to 70%. In Spain it went from 5% to 42% over a similar period, and in France it went from 5% to 22%. In the Northern European countries there's been essentially been no movement, hovering at around 1-5% in the UK, Germany, and the Scandinavian countries.
Interesting that Singapore are completely unlike their neighbours in that sense.
I think it's a scandal that we had plenty of warning but due to a complete shambles of an approach the UK is in line to be one of the most disastrously impacted countries in the world from this with a death rate much higher than many other developed countries. Now perhaps is not the time to be looking for heads to roll but when all this is over this will have to be looked at.
Damn. Look after yourself fella, hope you get well soon.
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Is the point not that the UK didn't have to follow the same trajectory as these worst hit countries, with better planning, they could have avoided the period of exponential increase places like Italy and Spain experienced?
I think it's an indictment on many governments across the world that clearly were not sufficiently prepared. It's easy to say this in hindsight, but there have been several virus outbreaks before as warning signs that other countries, the UK included should have been more adequately prepared. Reacting slowly is one thing, but my understanding (limited) is the lack preparation is what has caught many countries out.
Even if we do get hit the worst, I think there will be enough countries that have been hit hard by the virus that the UK will get some slack as a result, particularly with some of those worst hit countries being European and also the US.
- they were asked by the city of Heinsberg to take over diagnostics; saw this as a chance to better understand the disease
- went from household to household and asked people about their symptoms, how they might have been infected, what medication they are on and underlying conditions they had
- took blood samples and throat swabs, as well as samples from the environment (phones, remote controls etc)
- one finding they released very early was that almost everyone had suffered a temporary loss of small and taste
- they DID find traces of the virus on the tested surfaces but upon further analysis they found the virus was inactive/dead and attempts to culture it were unsuccessful
- door handles (or other objects) can only be infectious when someone coughed into their hand and then touched it
- cannot say precisely how long the virus survives (they are trying to find out now) but they've been to highly contaminated households and could not find any active virus
- criticises that current discussion is largely based on speculation and models based on assumption and what we should do is collect data and produce facts which can be used to make informed decisions
- surprised the Robert Koch Institute hasn't conducted a similar study but such studies are imperative to provide answers for the population
- (on the question whether current measures have been introduced too quickly and decision are being made based on unverified facts) the virus doesn't listen to politicians or any person and we have to "give it time" to see the effects of individual measures which can only be seen after a delay
- praises South Korea's handling of the situation and advocates testing as much as possible and isolating local clusters; highlights there was no lockdown in SK but instead any infection was traced back and then isolated; this is a very good strategy that should be practicable for a country such as Germany as they have the capability to mass-test
- the danger is when the virus gets into hospitals and retirement homes; we should focus our discussion on how to protect the vulnerable part of the population; suggests testing all medical personell every four to seven days
- regrets there is no "round table of virologists and epidemologists" at federal level to pool resources and expertise
- they have dealt with many viruses in the past and seen what impact shutdowns and curfews have on people; calls current measures "drastic" in proportion to previous epidemics
- would have liked it if such measures hadn't been taken so quickly and drastically and would have preferred an open discussion on what our goals are
- our limit is the capacity of the hospitals, not the number of people infected; we've never heard what our goal is, is 1000 infections per day too much? are 100 too many?
- instead of counting new infections every day, we need to listen to the ICU doctors as they are the ones who can best assess which measures are actually the right ones
- it is extremely important to think about an exit strategy
- another reason to do this study to get a better idea of the true number of infections and the actual mortality rate
- we can look at what are the actual routes of infection that are worth breaking up and where it makes sense to loosen the restrictions
- never heard of infections at hairdressing salons but now they're all shut
- as a virologist and scientist it is important to remember what we know and what we don't know
- we know it's not a smear infection but we do know that dancing close together and celebrating in large crowds causes many infections
- now it's about finding the nuances in between
- (when asked about Sweden) it's daring what they are doing but doesn't think they're doing it wrong
- we know how the virus is transmitted, proximity to an infected person
- Swedes are asked to keep their distance, avoid large crowds but normal everyday life goes on
- went from household to household and asked people about their symptoms, how they might have been infected, what medication they are on and underlying conditions they had
- took blood samples and throat swabs, as well as samples from the environment (phones, remote controls etc)
- one finding they released very early was that almost everyone had suffered a temporary loss of small and taste
- they DID find traces of the virus on the tested surfaces but upon further analysis they found the virus was inactive/dead and attempts to culture it were unsuccessful
- door handles (or other objects) can only be infectious when someone coughed into their hand and then touched it
- cannot say precisely how long the virus survives (they are trying to find out now) but they've been to highly contaminated households and could not find any active virus
- criticises that current discussion is largely based on speculation and models based on assumption and what we should do is collect data and produce facts which can be used to make informed decisions
- surprised the Robert Koch Institute hasn't conducted a similar study but such studies are imperative to provide answers for the population
- (on the question whether current measures have been introduced too quickly and decision are being made based on unverified facts) the virus doesn't listen to politicians or any person and we have to "give it time" to see the effects of individual measures which can only be seen after a delay
- praises South Korea's handling of the situation and advocates testing as much as possible and isolating local clusters; highlights there was no lockdown in SK but instead any infection was traced back and then isolated; this is a very good strategy that should be practicable for a country such as Germany as they have the capability to mass-test
- the danger is when the virus gets into hospitals and retirement homes; we should focus our discussion on how to protect the vulnerable part of the population; suggests testing all medical personell every four to seven days
- regrets there is no "round table of virologists and epidemologists" at federal level to pool resources and expertise
- they have dealt with many viruses in the past and seen what impact shutdowns and curfews have on people; calls current measures "drastic" in proportion to previous epidemics
- would have liked it if such measures hadn't been taken so quickly and drastically and would have preferred an open discussion on what our goals are
- our limit is the capacity of the hospitals, not the number of people infected; we've never heard what our goal is, is 1000 infections per day too much? are 100 too many?
- instead of counting new infections every day, we need to listen to the ICU doctors as they are the ones who can best assess which measures are actually the right ones
- it is extremely important to think about an exit strategy
- another reason to do this study to get a better idea of the true number of infections and the actual mortality rate
- we can look at what are the actual routes of infection that are worth breaking up and where it makes sense to loosen the restrictions
- never heard of infections at hairdressing salons but now they're all shut
- as a virologist and scientist it is important to remember what we know and what we don't know
- we know it's not a smear infection but we do know that dancing close together and celebrating in large crowds causes many infections
- now it's about finding the nuances in between
- (when asked about Sweden) it's daring what they are doing but doesn't think they're doing it wrong
- we know how the virus is transmitted, proximity to an infected person
- Swedes are asked to keep their distance, avoid large crowds but normal everyday life goes on
For some reason when I lived in the UK, I had the impression he was a reputable journalist. That's awful.
Good man. If a few more headline searching journalists can be smacked, that'd be good.
Then maybe they can focus on reporting stuff not making their own (wrong) conclusions. Especially about something miles outside their expertise.
Cant we just stick with the experts and feck off people like Peston? Allow him to report on stories of kittens being stuck up trees and the like?I would certainly wear a mask if I could actually get hold of a supply.The YouGov data is quite illustrative on the other side of that discussion: what the average person thinks.
Obviously Asia are more accustomed to it than Europe in general, but in the likes of Italy, France and Spain there's been a huge uptake in just two weeks. 26% of Italians said they wore a mask on March 11th, by March 25th that had jumped up to 70%. In Spain it went from 5% to 42% over a similar period, and in France it went from 5% to 22%. In the Northern European countries there's been essentially been no movement, hovering at around 1-5% in the UK, Germany, and the Scandinavian countries.
Interesting that Singapore are completely unlike their neighbours in that sense.
But try as I might, it is close to impossible in England.
What an absolute flannel. He wasn't inquiring about anything, he was adopting a tone of authority on the matter because Hancock or Gove have been in his ear trying to explain things that are above their level of understanding.
Indeed. Ferocity
Why do all journalists have this holier than thou, infallible attitude and think they are somehow immune to criticism because they are the ones asking the questions?
I got the kids to make some at home. Pretty smart they are too. Obviously not military standard but do the job for going to the shops etc...
Good job she got that sewing machine for xmas.
Not just peston.
Yesterday kuenssberg was 'astonished that nearly a million people had applied for universal credit.
What did she think was going to happen when people lose their incomes overnight. We don't all earn £250K a year and have a dad who made a mint via fraudulent business practices.
Yesterday kuenssberg was 'astonished that nearly a million people had applied for universal credit.
What did she think was going to happen when people lose their incomes overnight. We don't all earn £250K a year and have a dad who made a mint via fraudulent business practices.
Everyone knows shes fecking awful though.
@Hernandez - BFA get well soon bud. All of the best with the recovery.
I've plotted @redshaw's data and it looks like we are in the middle of 6 countries.
It's hard to say right now because there is less data for the UK.