Japanese people may respect their elders, but I wouldn't put beyond any government to have their own Dominic Cummings.
There's something about power that attracts true douchebags.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
There's something about power that attracts true douchebags.
Did you read the article you posted or just posted it because the title fits in with the narrative you’ve been peddling? Or maybe you hoped others wouldn’t read it?
So it’d very much not “the high end”.
I was in Istanbul airport in early Jan and mid-Feb and they were measuring passengers' temperatures at that point. It says here they were doing it for East Asian countries but I was scanned both ways and it didn't seem like they were discriminating. That's worlds apart from full-on coronavirus testing but they were much more alert to the problem than the London airports, who were doing absolutely nothing all the way up to mid-March at least. They were very aware of the fact that not only do they have a lot of passengers, but they're a connecting airport between Asia and Europe so it wouldn't just be people staying in Istanbul but it'd be faciliating the spread at all of the final destinations too.
Yep, now nothing makes sense for me. There is simply no way that it didn't affect Turkey in December already, or January the latest considering how easy it spreads in Europe even during lockdowns, and considering the number of tourists in Istanbul, and especially having the direct flight to Wuhan.
Also, there is really no way that the Turkey wouldn't notice these cases earlier. Nothing makes sense anymore.
From Estonia here. Was submitted to my local ER as I couldn't breathe anymore. Spent 8 hours at the "black section" of it with Covid patients. They took a test for it from my nostrils, also my blood tests and whatnor. The test came back negative, did get diagnosed with heavy bronchitis and asthma (latter which I didn't know I had). It was the most surreal hospitl experience I've had. The scariest as well. People in full camo guarding the doors, military level order within the hospital, the elderly patients given special care, full grown men crying. feck me, stay safe everyone.
Iran also have shrines which attract millions of people and kept them open when the disease was spreading. It really isn't that difficult to comprehend, not every single Iranian is sat at home and do leave the country too. All it takes is a small number of people to bring it back to the country and it spreads like wildfire.
When the president of America was saying this, you can certainly forgive some redcafe chump doing the same.
I read on fb today someone still quoting the flu deaths per year and saying this is hyped up! Some people never get it.
India? they wont have the medical facilities to test and count their dead will they? Or many of those poorer countries
There's a conspiracy thread for this stuff.
Hancock saying this morning that they've yet to find an antibody test that works. I hope those millions ordered were dependent on quality assurance, the announcement was a bit premature in hindsight.
It's not unconnected to China who took over most of their international trade after the sanctions from the western world cut them off from the usual channels. Not that long ago that majority of new cases in Wuhan were actually being imported from Iran. They are obviously under reporting both deaths and incidents.
I'd lay off the booze if I were you
No doubt
I don't subscribe to any conspiracies about this.
Well you supported 4 bars with his batshit 'the Japanese want to kill off the over 65s' so you clearly do. Take it somewhere else.
And you said I was the shittest poster in here.
Iran and Italy have a lot of business ties with China
https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/1...ty-price-for-close-ties-with-communist-china/
Narrative I've been peddling? What are you talking about?
And to answer the question, I saw the live interview with Fauci in which he iterates that these are models, they are as good as the assumption you put in, and whenever the models come in there's a worse case and a best case - and reality tends to lie in between. 1million to 2 million is not impossible, but very unlikely. He puts his estimate at 100-200k deaths in the US. So taking that as his prediction (with caveats), 200k is on the high end.
Capisce?
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The BBC just reported that the Lombardy crematorium has closed because it has a 20 day backlog. That's pretty grim. I wonder if they might just freeze bodies so that they can have time to figure out a way of letting families have a funeral in time.
All models are based on assumptions, and taking the most extreme assumptions will lead to unrealistic results. I've seen some amazing models and gorgeous graphs with bad data/assumptions, so I'm skeptical of the worse case scenarios out there.
We started with the assumption that 40-70% of the global population will be infected. That seems unlikely now. I've seen models use an exaggerated CFR in the 3.5% range (even though the most complete data from Diamond Princess passengers, with CFR=1% was observed in an elderly cohort; thus, CFR may be much lower than 1% in the general population) and I've seen R naughts run anywhere from 2 to 6.5 range. Then you have to model human behavior/response to the crisis and that's notoriously hard to do.
We'll see - from my people interactions (or lack thereof) in New York I'm amazed how well people are maintaining social distancing and staying cool, calm and collected. We'll get through this.
They have in certain areas, but not the whole region. They are moving the bodies in the night to facilities with spare room.
Google are providing location data to track changes in movement between different countries. They have split it up into categories like how many people are going to retail places, transit stations, workplaces etc.
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
The UK for comparison is still moving between 10% and 40% more than Italy, especially in parks.
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
The UK for comparison is still moving between 10% and 40% more than Italy, especially in parks.
To complete that info. The amount of known Covid-19 death in care homes is 884 out of 14638 people infected.
Some posters really should look inside themselves
Do they truthfully not realise how hateful and full of bile their comments appear. At a time when parts of the world are fighting for its very existence. Shame on them not of course that they will feel any I’m sure.
Do they truthfully not realise how hateful and full of bile their comments appear. At a time when parts of the world are fighting for its very existence. Shame on them not of course that they will feel any I’m sure.
Always amazed me that Northern Italy is used as a reference scenario to what would happen in the US. I've lived in Brescia a few years ago, and I know for a fact that roughly 1 in 3 adults still live with their parents, which makes them extremely vulnerable. Spain/Portugal may be similar, some of the Eastern European countries also. I doubt Germany, most of the UK, the Nordic/Baltic countries fall in the same category. And that's categorically, not the case in the US.
Secondly, the air pollution in Northern Italy is terrible and according to WHO estimates (if you believe their science - because they're nimrods) it causes 8,000 deaths annually.
In addition, air pollution greatly increases the risk of viral lung diseases in elderly people (you can also check European Environment Agency data for Italy here). So don't think you can apply that uniformly to the US (maybe LA could be vulnerable?).
Finally the US significantly better equipped than Italy in terms of intensive care units – by a factor of about 3.
So I think that Italy/Spain or New York City for that matter (which is the most densely populated city in the US) are not realistic scenarios for the US.
Secondly, the air pollution in Northern Italy is terrible and according to WHO estimates (if you believe their science - because they're nimrods) it causes 8,000 deaths annually.
In addition, air pollution greatly increases the risk of viral lung diseases in elderly people (you can also check European Environment Agency data for Italy here). So don't think you can apply that uniformly to the US (maybe LA could be vulnerable?).
Finally the US significantly better equipped than Italy in terms of intensive care units – by a factor of about 3.
So I think that Italy/Spain or New York City for that matter (which is the most densely populated city in the US) are not realistic scenarios for the US.
Arguing with another member
Shut up.
I don’t think the U.K. is yet including deaths outside of hospital yet unless I’ve missed it. Keeping everything crossed that when we do the number is not as bad as France. Probably will be but hoping anyway.
Typical child’s response. When you grow up to be an adult perhaps you will talk some sense. For now I think I’ll put you on ignore
Italy I automatically thought made sense, just for fashion industry alone. But I never realised Iran had such ties with them to be honest.
I read that in Spain they were using ice rinks to “preserve” them for later cremation. Sad times.
That Wales GP practice worded it completed wrong
There is a misconception about what a DNAR means, now its been replaced by a purple form (Respect form) which has more nuance with regards to hospital admission, resus status, ceiling of care
DNACPR does not mean that care is denied or hospital admission is avoided. There are some cases such as palliative patients for whom it is decided that that is the case or elderly, frail patients but that is done with patient wishes. In certain instances where patient's have end-stage COPD who continue to smoke but want recurrent hospital admission an approach is agreed with ED with regards to how to manage (e.g. palliative meds, rescue care packs)
A ventilator is essentially that feeling of some food going down your gullet and the choking, retching sensation multiplied up to an enormous magnitude (which is why heavy sedation is required), for frail patients to be on that is cruel.
My first resus attempt was for a 96 year old who didn't have a DNACPR. She was very skinny. Fortunately she passed away and the crash call was mercifully short. Even if she had survived (survival rates are optimistically in the lower single digits for patients who have a cardiac arrest although this varies for younger patients with technique, comorbidities, age, patient setting). So a DNAR is an appropriate discussion to have. I spent a significant amount of time with my family to convince them to sign it for my grandfather after his stroke because severely frail patients on a ventilator or post-resus are in a terrible state if they survive (what with broken ribs, ventilator assisted infections, delirium)
It doesn't mean however patients with DNARs aren't seen - quite the contrary they can still get antibiotics, oxygens, non-invasive ventilation, fluids, home visits if its decided that community visits are best. It was important that the above is communicated effectively and that Wales surgery screwed it up in the wording big time which is a shame.
There is a misconception about what a DNAR means, now its been replaced by a purple form (Respect form) which has more nuance with regards to hospital admission, resus status, ceiling of care
DNACPR does not mean that care is denied or hospital admission is avoided. There are some cases such as palliative patients for whom it is decided that that is the case or elderly, frail patients but that is done with patient wishes. In certain instances where patient's have end-stage COPD who continue to smoke but want recurrent hospital admission an approach is agreed with ED with regards to how to manage (e.g. palliative meds, rescue care packs)
A ventilator is essentially that feeling of some food going down your gullet and the choking, retching sensation multiplied up to an enormous magnitude (which is why heavy sedation is required), for frail patients to be on that is cruel.
My first resus attempt was for a 96 year old who didn't have a DNACPR. She was very skinny. Fortunately she passed away and the crash call was mercifully short. Even if she had survived (survival rates are optimistically in the lower single digits for patients who have a cardiac arrest although this varies for younger patients with technique, comorbidities, age, patient setting). So a DNAR is an appropriate discussion to have. I spent a significant amount of time with my family to convince them to sign it for my grandfather after his stroke because severely frail patients on a ventilator or post-resus are in a terrible state if they survive (what with broken ribs, ventilator assisted infections, delirium)
It doesn't mean however patients with DNARs aren't seen - quite the contrary they can still get antibiotics, oxygens, non-invasive ventilation, fluids, home visits if its decided that community visits are best. It was important that the above is communicated effectively and that Wales surgery screwed it up in the wording big time which is a shame.
Thanks for helping put the numbers in context.
Care homes and similar environments must be very difficult places right now, for residents and staff.
An extra complication, in the UK at least, is that care work is typically low paid. A lot of carers work part time or fit it in alongside looking after elderly relatives or children.
A significant number of full-time carers are foreign workers, working under visa conditions and not on permanent contracts. Some may have returned home, others may not be entitled to sick pay - making that 7/14 days quarantine for symptoms very difficult.
Hopefully some employers are handling it well, but I'm sure others won't be. Especially given they may have less staff than normal, and a number of places were already close to bankruptcy before this started.
Not quite sure mine belongs with those others tbh, but you're right, I don't feel any shame for feeling incredibly fecked off that NHS staff are being asked to sort out this crisis after 10 years of the institution being systematically hacked to pieces by a shameless bunch of cnuts who care so little about the doctors and nurses fighting this that they can't even be bothered to test them or sort out adequate PPE for them, who couldn't be bothered to address systematic failures to recruit enough staff, who cheered when they blocked a pay rise for nurses, who have ignored the need for more funding, and who were voted back in by 43% of the population who decided that that track record was a-ok.
I get it, obviously, people want to show gratitude and feel powerless at the minute and a little thing like that cheers them up. I get it too that a lot of those people were duped by mendacious claims about new hospitals, Brexit dividends and a whole load of drivel designed to mislead them, but if people genuinely cared as much about the NHS and its staff as they say they wouldn't be voting in droves for parties that have proven themselves to be such unreliable custodians of it. Yet they did, that might not annoy you, but I sure as shit think that we could have given the doctors and nurses in this country a far better chance. Genuinely grateful as I'm sure the people who have been clapping are there's a significant number of them who voted less than six months ago to continue asking them to work with one hand behind their back.
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While the CFR may have been generally exaggerated, I think this thing is contagious as feck and the higher end of R0 estimates is probably right.
Yeah this got real quickly. I wouldn't hold it against anyone trying to remain positive at the beginning.
There's little doubt that the US can mobilize a rescue operation far greater than most other countries, and as long as people stay at home, the vast majority will be okay. I would assume there are a couple of other risk factors, though, if we view the US as a whole. Poverty and lack of universal healthcare, which combined with lifestyle diseases could put a substantial amount of people in the high-risk group to begin with, if they haven't self-isolated in time. And I hope that sick nurses/caregivers are given the orders to stay at home (with pay) at the slightest hint of symptoms, because nursing/retirement homes seem to be where the bodies silently start piling up even in Northern Europe, no matter how well things are going elsewhere.
Yet the death rate in the US is tracking/exceeding the rate of increase in the early weeks of the Italian epidemic. Go figure.
Yup. The prevalence of obesity, type 2 diabetes and renal failure in the US is incredibly high compared to most other countries. Lifestyle conditions that all increase Covid mortality.
That's the part that really surprised me, I followed it since the first rumors in December and while I was a bit worried about a new virus, I expected it to be closer to MERS or SARS-Cov-1 but it seems that it is way more contagious and way more resilient. It's not necessarily that lethal but because it can infect a very large amount of people quickly, it will easily find itself in contact with vulnerable population.
This virus will be a great source of information for virologists because it seems that it is very efficient.
That’s very cool data.
Stop acting so touchy. That's not what I was supporting. I said I wouldn't be surprised if they had their own Dominic Cummings too. But before I even replied, you had clearly already lost your shit (e.g. insulting another poster "it's the pile of shite in your head") that I doubt you processed what I said.