SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Hound Dog]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...y-hopes/ar-BB12rSb0?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ACERDHP17

"Mr Kim also said patients had likely “relapsed” rather than been re-infected"

Read your own article ffs

 

[DomesticTadpole]

However the KCDC's director, Jeong Eun-kyeong, raised the possibility that the virus may have been “reactivated” in people, rather than the patients being re-infected.

False test results could also be at fault, other experts said, or remnants of the virus could still be in patients’ systems without being infectious or posing a risk of danger to the host or others.

“There are different interpretations and many variables,” said Jung Ki-suck, professor of pulmonary medicine at Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital.

Thing is nobody knows. We have not had a situation like this before. It is literally going to be wait and see what happens. Countries need to be sharing their information and some might not be. This isn't some secret development of a nuclear bomb, it is a disease that could be as deadly.

 

[TMDaines]

This sums the media response up really well:

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Which is partly why I was aghast at the Guardian's initial shite on Robert Jenrick. Is that the most cutting scrutiny they can muster right now?

 

[massi83]

FAO people comparing countries. Two things that most people are getting wrong (which is driving me nuts)

1. Number of cases is MASSIVELY influenced by number of tests. Obviously. You cannot compare cases between two countries that have different testing rates/criteria for testing.

2. Number of deaths or number of ITU admissions is a much better metric for comparison but using “per 100k pop” will be biased in favour of more populous countries. If you throw a burning ember into a large field of straw and a small field of straw, your success at putting that fire out will be the field with the lowest number of blades of straw that get burned. Not the lowest number per 100k of total blades.

Thank you for listening. This has been driving me fecking nuts.

EDIT: Can you call straw blades? Sticks maybe?

Very true mainly. Small additional point about 2: in bigger countries there are more embers to begin with, as many of the cases early on came from travelling to most infected regions.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Right, that's what I thought. The data as yet is unreliable.

Surely if this becomes a reality then it's game over and we should just open everything up and let it run it's course?

The reasons for shutting down remain regardless but it would be a kick in the bollox alright.

 

[Dante]

FAO people comparing countries. Two things that most people are getting wrong (which is driving me nuts)

1. Number of cases is MASSIVELY influenced by number of tests. Obviously. You cannot compare cases between two countries that have different testing rates/criteria for testing.

2. Number of deaths or number of ITU admissions is a much better metric for comparison but using “per 100k pop” will be biased in favour of more populous countries. If you throw a burning ember into a large field of straw and a small field of straw, your success at putting that fire out will be the field with the lowest number of blades of straw that get burned. Not the lowest number per 100k of total blades.

Thank you for listening. This has been driving me fecking nuts.

EDIT: Can you call straw blades? Sticks maybe?

Not to mention the fact that many of the bigger-country epidemics will have been seeded by multiple embers spread out all over the field.

This is obviously going to be more evident in countries that have large tourist industries centred around primate cities (I'm thinking of London and Paris in particular). After a certain point, it turns into a game of whack-a-mole.

 

[Wolverine]

I’m not a massive fan of the BBC but what exactly do you want them to do? Have a massive countdown of deaths at the top of their page? If they constantly throw the number of deaths on the front page that will cause mass hysteria and likely start panic buying again.

Maybe they could report more on what is happening in hospital but we already know there isn’t enough staff, enough PPE, enough ventilators, enough testing kits. It’s all been reported for weeks.

Be more challenging to the narrative put out by the government.

Nurses are wearing bin bags, I've had to drive 90 miles every other week to screwfix to get disposable FFP3 masks . This isn't because we are wasting PPE, we don't have any. Visors are being sought by ourselves, gowns are being bought on ebay/elsewhere. Yet we are being told today that NHS staff are dying from community transmission and misusing/overusing PPE. That's scandalous.

Currently the Resus council who give medics and NHS staff certification are saying that we need higher forms of PPE due to CPR being aersol generating but public health england guidance disagrees and trusts are siding with PHE despite the evidence and science provided from the internal liaison committee on resuscitation
https://www.resus.org.uk/media/stat...-resuscitation/statement-on-phe-ppe-guidance/

COVID patients on ward have a high risk of needing CPR but doctors are being told to resuscitate them ignoring the guidance from the very organisation who certify us for that procedure and potentially risk getting infection themselves. That's one of many many points of contention. Doctors are currently muzzled from talking about this openly due to threats from managers.

Doctors have been bombarding media channels regarding this scandal and trying to get the media to provide the counter narrative that will let people get a better picture of what's happening on the ground rather than the current situation where the government gets to spew their propaganda unchallenged.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Very true mainly. Small additional point about 2: in bigger countries there are more embers to begin with, as many of the cases early on came from travelling to most infected regions.

Yeah was thinking you could do “deaths per international” airport. But you’d also need to factor road/ferry links etc. Basically gets very fecking complicated!

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Not to mention the fact that many of bigger-country pandemics will have been seeded by multiple embers spread out all over the field.

This is obviously going to be more evident in countries that have large tourist industries centred around primate cities (I'm thinking of London and Paris in particular). After a certain point, it turns into a game of whack-a-mole.

It’s definitely a tougher battle in cities like London, Paris or NYC. Although you could argue these are known factors which should influence government response. Shut down harder and earlier in known tinderkegs for infection. It certainly looks bad that the people in charge of countries that have mega-cities like London and New York were relatively laid back in their approach early on. Definitely a factor in their horrendous death tolls.

 

[redshaw]

France has had zero combined 1300-1400 death in 24 hours. The care homes figures aren't a 24 hour data, it's from March 1st and it's also an overestimation because they basically consider that anyone none tested that died in a care home where someone was tested positive potentially died of covid-19 too. That's why they are not combined.

France has been adding care home deaths each day bar one since 2nd of April, obviously early on it's back dated, it's up to 4500+ now, probably more alarming if it's still in March. I never said France combine them, the point was taken in combination regarding another point with some overestimated data in the UK from March.

You brought up 24hr talking about UK and comparing. None of the data is 24hr and varies from 1-4 weeks either hospital or care homes. UK the other day at 900+ deaths actually went back to March, this will go for hospital and care figures homes for every country. If it's the case less people in care homes are taken to hospital then in late March we might've seen a peak of 900 in France.

 

[Grinner]

What's wrong with nurses wearing binbags if they work? Why not adapt what we have?

 

[Smores]

Be more challenging to the narrative put out by the government.

Nurses are wearing bin bags, I've had to drive 90 miles every other week to screwfix to get disposable FFP3 masks . This isn't because we are wasting PPE, we don't have any. Visors are being sought by ourselves, gowns are being bought on ebay/elsewhere. Yet we are being told today that NHS staff are dying from community transmission and misusing/overusing PPE. That's scandalous.

Currently the Resus council who give medics and NHS staff certification are saying that we need higher forms of PPE due to CPR being aersol generating but public health england guidance disagrees and trusts are siding with PHE despite the evidence and science provided from the internal liaison committee on resuscitation
https://www.resus.org.uk/media/stat...-resuscitation/statement-on-phe-ppe-guidance/

COVID patients on ward have a high risk of needing CPR but doctors are being told to resuscitate them ignoring the guidance from the very organisation who certify us for that procedure and potentially risk getting infection themselves. That's one of many many points of contention. Doctors are currently muzzled from talking about this openly due to threats from managers.

Doctors have been bombarding media channels regarding this scandal and trying to get the media to provide the counter narrative that will let people get a better picture of what's happening on the ground rather than the current situation where the government gets to spew their propaganda unchallenged.

Totally agree.

I expect this of the BBC because they're basically stenographers and just repeat the party line as told. Sky news and C4 news who did such a stellar job with Brexit are now falling in line.

You only have to look at the reporting of Wuhan and Italy compared to the domestic issue to understand they're wilfully under reporting. They're probably scared of what the government will do if they actually did their job.

 

[Feed Me]

He was directly asked his own opinion about footballers. Maybe it would be better to be slating the journo for asking such an inflammatory question? As ive pointed out before, some of those questions are inane. The press haveva responsibility through this crisis to offer accurate information in a way that does not panic people ( for example, i believe a lot of panic buying was in part fuelled by poor reporting at the start.)

Fair point. That said, he could have easily given a diplomatic response which would have been the correct course of action in this case. Politicians will always be happy to lay the blame elsewhere. In any case, Hancock will have known the question was coming.

 

[C'est Moi Cantona]

What's wrong with nurses wearing binbags if they work? Why not adapt what we have?

Other than the obvious of them not been apron shaped then I have to admit I asked the same question, likewise could the visors not be sanitised and reused (if they're not already). It's not ideal but the best of bad job atm.

 

[Wibble]

Sweden again now? Why?

Lack of lock down. Saw reports of rising infections. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

What's wrong with nurses wearing binbags if they work? Why not adapt what we have?

Shows great initiative by the nurses but bin bags are a poor substitute for the real thing. Because they’re non absorbent/non breathable they’ll carry the virus on them much longer and they must be horribly grim and sweaty to wear.

 

[worldgonemad]

Fair point. That said, he could have easily given a diplomatic response which would have been the correct course of action in this case. Politicians will always be happy to lay the blame elsewhere. In any case, Hancock will have known the question was coming.

I, m not certain that they are briefed what the questions will be. Still, its up to the journos to ask relevant questions. Asking an opinion of someone is always a loaded trap when a journo asks in my opinion.

 

[Wolverine]

Other than the obvious of them not been apron shaped then I have to admit I asked the same question, likewise could the visors not be sanitised and reused (if they're not already). It's not ideal but the best of bad job atm.

The evidence base that public health england have cited for recommending aprons is based on incomparable influenza pandemics
We know from covid-19 related research from medics that have used higher forms of PPE (e.g. coveralls) that infection rates and morality is much much less for healthcare workers.

But coveralls, FFP3 masks and the type of PPE recommended for aerosol generating procedures by PHE are more expensive + difficult to source compared to existing supply of aprons, surgical masks. Its a matter of us not just catching infection but with our exposed arms etc during close contacts with patients on covid wards we are acting as super spreaders in addition to risk to our own lives.

 

[Feed Me]

I, m not certain that they are briefed what the questions will be. Still, its up to the journos to ask relevant questions. Asking an opinion of someone is always a loaded trap when a journo asks in my opinion.

You make a fair point. As discussed earlier in the thread, the media has been fecking useless in holding the authorities to account. More interested in grandstanding when the mic is put under their nose instead of asking a pertinent question.

 

[Dante]

France has been adding care home deaths each day bar one since 2nd of April, obviously early on it's back dated, it's up to 4500+ now, probably more alarming if it's still in March. I never said France combine them, the point was taken in combination regarding another point.

You brought up 24hr talking about UK and comparing. None of the data is 24hr and varies from 1-4 weeks either hospital or care homes. UK the other day at 900+ deaths actually went back to March, this will go for hospital and care figures homes for every country. If it's the case less people in care homes are taken to hospital then in late March we might've seen a peak of 900 in France.

Do you know of any website that provides the uncombined figures for the UK?

 

[Dve]

Vaccine could be ready by September!

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...x?shareToken=5c44cb95d1a1017e3edf50902b993be0

 

[Adisa]

Choke on this.

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[Smores]

Apologises if already posted, trying to spend too much time in here.

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This type of media strategy from the government is absolutely fecking disgusting. Trying to plant the seeds to divert blame. Just shameful

 

[JPRouve]

France has been adding care home deaths each day bar one since 2nd of April, obviously early on it's back dated, it's up to 4500+ now, probably more alarming if it's still in March. I never said France combine them, the point was taken in combination regarding another point.

You brought up 24hr talking about UK and comparing. None of the data is 24hr and varies from 1-4 weeks either hospital or care homes. UK the other day at 900+ deaths actually went back to March, this will go for hospital and care figures homes for every country. If it's the case less people in care homes are taken to hospital then in late March we might've seen a peak of 900 in France.

I argued the 1300-1400, 900 is totally reasonable but you went with a figure that has no reality when you somehow went to +1300. As for the bolded point where does that come from?

 

[sullydnl]

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Better than another front-page about Boris.

 

[Dve]

Many people may already have immunity to coronavirus, German study finds!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ready-have-immunity-coronavirus-german-study/

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

Right, that's what I thought. The data as yet is unreliable.

Surely if this becomes a reality then it's game over and we should just open everything up and let it run it's course?

Exactly that, unfortunately. Option B is for the entire planet to collapse and many more people to lose their lives through various fallouts of that, than would have died from the pandemic itself.

Totally agree.

I expect this of the BBC because they're basically stenographers and just repeat the party line as told. Sky news and C4 news who did such a stellar job with Brexit are now falling in line.

You only have to look at the reporting of Wuhan and Italy compared to the domestic issue to understand they're wilfully under reporting. They're probably scared of what the government will do if they actually did their job.

We know what they'd do. They'll take away their broadcasting rights. Boris said as much when they dared to make fun of him during the election, remember - it wasn't a conspiracy theory or a rumour, it was published in every major newspaper. Most people conveniently overlooked that because #getBrexitdone was more important.

Hopefully now a lot of people can see the truth. It doesn't have to be something as blatant as Kim Jong to be what it is. We live in a country just as corrupt as many we laugh at.

 

[McGrathsipan]

According to worldometers website

China with a population of nearly 1.5 billion have had 3339 deaths to date and 82000 cases.
USA with a population of about 331 milliion have 18761 deaths and over half a million cases

Its either China are liars of the highest order or USA just didnt take this seriously at all and are now paying the price and Trump doesn't care as long as it democrats that are dying.

I think its somewhere in between.

 

[JPRouve]

According to worldometers website

China with a population of nearly 1.5 billion have had 3339 deaths to date and 82000 cases.
USA with a population of about 331 milliion have 18761 deaths and over half a million cases

Its either China are liars of the highest order or USA just didnt take this seriously at all and are now paying the price and Trump doesn't care as long as it democrats that are dying.

I think its somewhere in between.

I don't follow, is Covid-19 a conservative virus?

 

[sullydnl]

According to worldometers website

China with a population of nearly 1.5 billion have had 3339 deaths to date and 82000 cases.
USA with a population of about 331 milliion have 18761 deaths and over half a million cases

Its either China are liars of the highest order or USA just didnt take this seriously at all and are now paying the price and Trump doesn't care as long as it democrats that are dying.

I think its somewhere in between.

Side note but worldometers really isn't reliable. I note that John Burns Murdoch has stopped using it as even a secondary source in his daily graphics due to concerns about their data quality.

 

[JPRouve]

Side note but worldometers really isn't reliable. I note that John Burns Murdoch has stopped using it as even a secondary source in his daily graphics due to concerns about their data quality.

It is unreliable, the good thing though is that they share the links to the sources.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Lack of lock down. Saw reports of rising infections. Hope I'm wrong.

Is it going to be a bad news story everywhere when they come out of lockdown?
Is permanent lockdown the only way out of this Wibs?

 

[do.ob]

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This crisis has done wonders for European leaders, the next general election in Germany is scheduled for October 21, so quite far away still, but if Merkel wanted to she could probably easily reverse her retirement:

Spoiler

approval:

 

[McGrathsipan]

I don't follow, is Covid-19 a conservative virus?

What do you not follow -

it supposedly started in China in a country of over a billion and they are **reporting** a relatively small number of deaths compared to other countries?
So are they lying?

Its killing thousands a day in the USA now so should they have took it seriously instead of listening to their orange leader who dismissed it as a democrat hoax?

 

[JPRouve]

What do you not follow -

it supposedly started in China in a country of over a billion and they are **reporting** a relatively small number of deaths compared to other countries?
So are they lying?

Its killing thousands a day in the USA now so should they have took it seriously instead of listening to their orange leader who dismissed it as a democrat hoax?

At which point does this virus particularly kills democrats? You wrote "...as long as it's democrats that are dying".

 

[rotherham_red]

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This crisis has done wonders for European leaders, the next general election in Germany is scheduled for October 21, so quite far away still, but if Merkel wanted to she could probably easily reverse her retirement:

Spoiler

approval:

61% approval rating for Boris? This country deserves to be mired in this shit for as long as possible. Their handling of this has been nothing less than shambolic and shameful.

 

[McGrathsipan]

At which point does this virus particularly kills democrats? You wrote "...as long as it's democrats that are dying".

You must be a Trump supporter. Read the sentence again and try to understand the context.

 

[Dve]

Vaccine could be ready by September. Say they are 80% sure it will work.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...x?shareToken=5c44cb95d1a1017e3edf50902b993be0

 

[McGrathsipan]

61% approval rating for Boris? This country deserves to be mired in this shit for as long as possible. Their handling of this has been nothing less than shambolic and shameful.

I cant understand it myself - he was advocating herd immunity 4 weeks ago. Totally cavalier approach.

 

[JPRouve]

You must be a Trump supporter. Read the sentence again and try to understand the context.

I'm asking you to explain the context, because the sentence is a bit daft. And no I'm not a Trump supporter, I'm not even sure about what this has to do with Trump, the US is a federation most of the issues that we are seeing are the fruit of state policies and management. Trump is a feckwit but let's not give other politicians and civil servants an easy ride.