SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Dumbstar

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Sorry Dumbstar, it's not in the news. I happened to see the report on the HCQ, and also got the info on the trials from the inside.
It's just a trial as obviously nothing is open yet but in Asia and in India the front line staff or at least some are taking it in low dosage to protect them.

This is what happens.

In February, a research group led by virologist Manli Wang of the Chinese Academy of Sciences found that chloroquine successfully stopped the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in cultured human cells. Preliminary reports from China, South Korea and France suggest that the treatment is at least somewhat effective in treating human patients, and some hospitals in the U.S. have begun administering the drug. In addition, the FDA is organizing a large clinical trial to formally assess the drug's effects.
Why are we not exploring plasma treatment with the same gusto? E.g.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/pakistan-awaits-clinical-trials-for-covid-19-treatment/1802977
 

Prometheus

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I've watched the last two briefings -the first I've seen in yonks. The questions were decent tbf...the answers less so. Raab took a visible intake of breath when asked about Patel's non-apology (then ignored the question in his answer) and someone asked Vallance about his 'all going to plan' comment, querying if potentially the highest death toll in Europe was 'part of that plan'.
Thanks. I may rewatch the highlights then.
 

sullydnl

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My generation is absolutely fecked. People who graduated in 2006-2009 in the middle of the great recession somehow built a career out of scraps, jumping jobs, learning new skills just to stay on the treadmill. Now just as these people are beginning to get out of student loan debt, looking to buy a house or start a family, a second and possibly deeper recession hits. What's the fecking point in picking up the pieces anymore? Life is terribly deflating.
Yep. Two "once in a generation" economic crises in the space of twelve years. Lucky us.
 

sullydnl

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You were lied to. These things happen every decade or so.
Actually meant once in a generation rather than a lifetime.

Though when was the last time two entirely separate global economic crises of this sort of scale occured within a 10-15 year period of each other?
 

Dr. Dwayne

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Actually meant once in a generation rather than a lifetime.

Though when was the last time two entirely separate global economic crises of this sort of scale occured within a 10-15 year period of each other?
Black Monday (1987) and the Dot Com Bubble Burst (1999) were 12 years apart.
 

sullydnl

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Is this a new story about the PPE? Could've sworn we already knew that earlier in the week.
 

Mr Pigeon

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Video called my dad and his wife in Australia and had to politely end the call quickly before I exploded. They're apparently going to pop down to the beach even though it's closed because she "can't walk near our house as the hills are too steep" and they've had family over for coffee but it's ok because they were six feet apart on the veranda, none of them have colds, all the usual bullshit. I told them that just because the curve is going down doesn't mean it can't come back to hit them in the arse so stay indoors and stop having people over, but it fell on deaf ears because apparently their health service is a million times better than ours.

My dad has fecking Parkinson's and he's in his seventies ffs. Told them "don't have anyone over, make the smart choices and stay safe" and ended the call.
 

Foxbatt

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They are but the problem with it is the numbers. With what is going on in Korea( it could be bad testing) but with some who had shown negative now showing positive is the confusion on it. So many clinical trials going on now. The Chinese are in phase 2 of a vaccine now. The first phase was done in March. This was to check if it's safe for humans. It's completed already and now the second phase is for the effectiveness.
Let's hope it works.
 

Brwned

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You were lied to. These things happen every decade or so.
Isn't that a bit flippant? The 2008 recession hit harder and longer than any of the crises post-WWII in most of the world, and the initial signs suggest this crisis will have hit harder and quicker than anything in your lifetime. It might bounce back equally quickly, all we have are projections now, but what we know already sets this apart as something distinctive.

 

JMack1234

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My generation is absolutely fecked. People who graduated in 2006-2009 in the middle of the great recession somehow built a career out of scraps, jumping jobs, learning new skills just to stay on the treadmill. Now just as these people are beginning to get out of student loan debt, looking to buy a house or start a family, a second and possibly deeper recession hits. What's the fecking point in picking up the pieces anymore? Life is terribly deflating.
Preach!

The young have been well and truly shafted this crisis.
 

Skills

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What we will likely see is some measures continuing indefinitely while others are eventually eased. You'd expect different countries to have different approaches in terms of when they ease different measures, though you'd imagine all countries will prioritise removing the restrictions that cause the most societal & economic pain.

The key point seems to be what's raised in that German tweet, which is the organisation and supplies that will need to be in place for lifting lockdown to be successful. Countries like the UK & Ireland will really need to have heavily ramped up their testing & contact tracing programs before exiting lockdown becomes a possibility.

It's also hard to imagine that sporting events will be anywhere near the top of the list when it comes to what's allowed.
Yup, from everything I've read - the entire point of lockdown is to get us back to the start of this fight. The lockdown is just giving you an opportunity to catch up on your testing capacity, improve your contact tracing & also workout what are the biggest bang for your buck social distancing measures.

I genuinely, you need to be able to test somewhere between 1-2% of your population per week to pull this off - possibly more if you've let it spread more severely. You're going to need systematic testing in work environments/schools & put measures in place to test people who use public transport.
 

One Night Only

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I posted before I saw your second post on this.

No idea how you tackle this in a major city where the majority use public transport - up to 5 million passenger journeys on the tube a day.

Agree we can't stay home forever, but without a vaccine feck knows how we avoid second, third and so on waves of this.
I'm not from London, only been once, but I'd expect a fair portion of tube traffic is tourists / shoppers / day trippers. Still I'd reckon a mammoth amount would be workers still.

It's the major cities which will be the problem coming out of lockdown for sure. It's going to be interesting to see how they eventually cross that bridge when they come to it.
 

Smores

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Yup, from everything I've read - the entire point of lockdown is to get us back to the start of this fight. The lockdown is just giving you an opportunity to catch up on your testing capacity, improve your contact tracing & also workout what are the biggest bang for your buck social distancing measures.

I genuinely, you need to be able to test somewhere between 1-2% of your population per week to pull this off - possibly more if you've let it spread more severely. You're going to need systematic testing in work environments/schools & put measures in place to test people who use public transport.
Does a single person here think we (the UK) will be able to effectively do these measures?

Hope I'm proven wrong but it's not seeming likely.
 

Wibble

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Isn't 50% the goal, then the decline starts ?
The estimates I saw were 70-80%. I did see one lower estimate but it looked like it had been calculated on R rather than R0 which I assume would mean some herd immunity effect as long as we reached this lower HIT and maintained current restrictions and practices.

Another approach will be to target vulnerable groups e.g. medical staff in the early human trials even if a full vaccine rollout takes 12-24 months.
 
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JMack1234

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The tens of thousands of dead older folk might disagree.
They aren't mutually exclusive are they?

The elderly are vulnerable to succumbing to the virus.

The young are more vulnerable to the catastrophic economic consequences.
 

Josep Dowling

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I didn't even get into blame my objections were to the gaslighting and dishonest rhetoric of the government. They're so focused on avoiding blaming that they're spinning that there's no issue at all.

The lack of PPE under these circumstances isn't unprecedented though. We spent money and effort in assessing preparedness for these events in 2016 and identified it as a risk, what mitigations were formed?

We knew about this in January and have we sufficiently ramped up plans for the manufacturing industry to produce PPE? Considering the health secretary only started making public calls for it towards the end of March and manufactures were being turned down with equipment sold offshore instead then I'm going to say not.
All I can say to that is if the government had spent a fortune on PPE back on 2016 I can imagine the headlines if it had all gone out of date and thrown away whilst millions had been spent. Let’s not act like this should have been well planned for years ago. Who genuinely thought this would happen within the next 25 years other than the likes of Bill Gates and a few conspiracy theorists?

And as for preparing in January I suppose more could have been done at that time but I didn’t see much done by the rest of Europe. I guess they were naive to believe this wouldn’t have impacted Europe as much as it has.
 

Dr. Dwayne

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Isn't that a bit flippant? The 2008 recession hit harder and longer than any of the crises post-WWII in most of the world, and the initial signs suggest this crisis will have hit harder and quicker than anything in your lifetime. It might bounce back equally quickly, all we have are projections now, but what we know already sets this apart as something distinctive.

A recession is a recession. The graph shows they happen with a fair bit of regularity, although we've done well to reduce both frequency and severity through the latter years of the 20th century.

Is this one severe? Yes, obviously, but there were warnings of a recession even before the COVID-19 response decimated western economies and sped up and exacerbated the fallout.
 

Dr. Dwayne

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What was their impact in comparison to the 2008 financial crisis? Tbf I could just go and look it up, but I assume they weren’t as deep and long
Generally speaking the consensus is that the recovery for Black Monday and the Dot Com Bubble were fairly close in duration and only about six months shorter than the 2008 crash. That being said the bad times weren't as long but took almost as long to recover from.
 

11101

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Actually meant once in a generation rather than a lifetime.

Though when was the last time two entirely separate global economic crises of this sort of scale occured within a 10-15 year period of each other?
This is not an economic crisis though. It's a world crisis that will affect the economy, it's far bigger. That's why anybody who knows anything about the world markets is saying this is a once in a lifetime event.
 

limerickcitykid

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My brother got out of quarantine last week in Shanghai. Haven’t spoke with him by my mom has said he’s been out to the pub with his football team and their league has started back up. His school is reopening at the start of May. He has been told by the school not to book flights home for the summer though yet. Wasn’t sure if that is because the school year will be extended or something to do with trouble trying to get back into China come September.

Meanwhile in Canada, I’m a little worried they don’t seem to be taking it seriously although I understand the financial need. My brother and his girlfriend have just started working at some warehouse. Apparently they aren’t eligible for the government scheme because my brother didn’t work in February and his gf only worked part time hours. My mom had my brother over for Easter though which is what worries me. My other brothers still working at his plant too. Someone has tested positive there and they shut down just for one day. Is the production of automotive dies really essential right now? He also won’t wear a mask because apparently it isn’t effective with a beard. At least his gf is being serious about it but won’t help her if he brings it home. Just seems far away from the panic it seems to be in the uk.