SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

kouroux

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For something like this where you actually do have a good chance of surviving without medical intervention - you need a pretty high sample size to prove statistical significance.
Of course, just saying that a lot of countries have decided to run away with the treatment. Most African states are led by cowards and dictators at the same time. They sense that the covid and if nothing is done, could be the end of their reigns. I swear the things I'm seeing in this country is akin to leading a herd of sheep to the slaughterhouse and the propaganda broadcasted, I wanna puke when i think about it.
 

Foxbatt

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Where are you getting your info? I'm googling daily for updates and know about the countries trialling and what they're trialling but you seem to have more specific details.
Sorry Dumbstar, it's not in the news. I happened to see the report on the HCQ, and also got the info on the trials from the inside.
It's just a trial as obviously nothing is open yet but in Asia and in India the front line staff or at least some are taking it in low dosage to protect them.

This is what happens.

In February, a research group led by virologist Manli Wang of the Chinese Academy of Sciences found that chloroquine successfully stopped the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in cultured human cells. Preliminary reports from China, South Korea and France suggest that the treatment is at least somewhat effective in treating human patients, and some hospitals in the U.S. have begun administering the drug. In addition, the FDA is organizing a large clinical trial to formally assess the drug's effects.
 

JPRouve

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Actually it's the Chinese who had positive things to say on it. Yes many are doing it but the trials are currently going in the UK on this and others too of course.
The chinese data has been seen by no one, which is an other issue. It has been quoted by some but no one has any data to present. Now when it has actually been tested and data were available all results have been inconclusive or negative. Here I'm just sharing what has been witnessed, nothing else.

This article explains where the entire thing comes from, I posted a video in french about why people should tone down their hope, basically Raoult is a bit of a fraud and he is the only one actually supporting it.
 

Ekkie Thump

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Updated outcomes of critical care patients in Northern Ireland, England and Wales: https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports

Cliffs:
  • 4690 known admissions
  • 3883 known patients
  • 2,194 known to still be receiving care
  • 1689 had outcomes - 818 (48.5%) lived, 871 (51.5%) died.
Question: Given that over 10,000 have died in hospital why does ICNARC only know of 4690 total admissions to intensive care?

Other findings:
  • 72.5% of admissions are male.
  • 14.5% are Asian (7.5% of general population, though higher in cities)
  • 12% are black (3.3% of general population - though more in cities)
  • Mean age is 60, median is 61.
  • Only 26% of known patients have a BMI in the healthy range, 73% are at least overweight, 38% are obese.

Outcomes:
  • 70% of known outcomes received advanced respiratory support.
  • Of those, only 1/3 survived.
  • 80% of those who received only basic support lived.
  • 75% of those aged less than 50 survive, less than 1/3 of people over 70 did so.
  • Women (54%) are more likely to survive than men (46%)
  • Overweight people are also less likely to survive (BMI < 25 = 54%, BMI > 30 = 46%)
 

Foxbatt

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The chinese data has been seen by no one, which is an other issue. It has been quoted by some but no one has any data to present. Now when it has actually been tested and data were available all results have been inconclusive or negative. Here I'm just sharing what has been witnessed, nothing else.

This article explains where the entire thing comes from, I posted a video in french about why people should tone down their hope, basically Raoult is a bit of a fraud and he is the only one actually supporting it.
Actually the NHS has the Chinese data in detail. That's why they have decided to conduct the trials themselves. It probably would come out in the next few weeks I am sure. Someone I know is involved in it and one is part of the trials.
 

JPRouve

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I know it's used as treatment here (i have no idea about the dosage) and for a total 297 infected, there have been 41 patients cured (then it's impossible to say if they would have been cured anyway without that specific treatment). 2 casualties, 2 very old men who were contamined in their intensive care beds.
Obviously proper testing and results will need a lot more time but I believe most countries in Africa are treating their patients like that at the moment.
The problem is based on the data available 85% of infected people are cured spontaneously.
 

JPRouve

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Actually the NHS has the Chinese data in detail. That's why they have decided to conduct the trials themselves. It probably would come out in the next few weeks I am sure. Someone I know is involved in it and one is part of the trials.
So the NHS are the only one in the world to have them or you are talking about the one done in Shanghai and was also inconclusive? In that one the none hydroxychloroquine group did better.
 

kouroux

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The problem is based on the data available 85% of infected people are cured spontaneously.
I'd even say more than 85% tbh. The thing is, most states, specially fragile ones, are looking for a quick and miraculous solution. I have no idea if a treatment works or the person just gets better by itself. At this stage it's impossible to know, I find it outrageous that those experimental treatments are used as a way to basically control and calm down the masses.
People are losing their mind with confinement and death.
 

Penna

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Yes those were the estimates for the first wave landings, sorry didn't mean to mislead.
Off-topic, but my father was with the 8th Army during the amphibious landings in Italy. They got off the boat into the water, he fell over. When he got back up, the two men either side of him had already been shot.
 

Fiskey

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Don't all their starting salaries fall below the minimum required?
The salary is an aspect of the system, which would be covered in the nurses case because it is a high demand occupation but I also think the salary requirement is different for healthcare workers.

Basically nurses easily get enough points in the system, and it makes it easier to recruit nurses from outside the EU
 

JPRouve

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I'd even say more than 85% tbh. The thing is, most states, specially fragile ones, are looking for a quick and miraculous solution. I have no idea if a treatment works or the person just gets better by itself. At this stage it's impossible to know, I find it outrageous that those experimental treatments are used as a way to basically control and calm down the masses.
People are losing their mind with confinement and death.
The issue is more that it's a drug used for diseases like Lupus and there has been reports that some patients struggle to get it, all of that because a french doctor tried to make a name for himself. Clinical trials make total sense but the way he goes on twitter and sell his "research" is having bad consequences, he forced many countries to allocate a lot of money and energy on something that is showing little effect but because the press made it a miracle drug, everyone tries to debunk/confirm it in the most conclusive way.
 

Foxbatt

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So the NHS are the only one in the world to have them or you are talking about the one done in Shanghai and was also inconclusive? In that one the none hydroxychloroquine group did better.
I am sure others have it too. I know the trials are going as someone I know is part of it. The other is leading one trial. Of course many are being tested. Not only in the UK I know in Canada and the USA too they are doing this. Of course it would take at least a month for them to have any idea of what is good or bad.
 

Pexbo

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Tomorrow or/and Wednesday's figures are going to be frightening.
 

Prometheus

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What's Spain's plan? Obviously it's necessary that they try and reopen things, but then this disease is so infectious it will most likely stop decreasing and climb up even higher very quickly.
 

Rado_N

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I’m possibly being stupid but that tweet says both 367,667 tests have concluded, and then says 290,720 people have been tested, how’s that work?

Also the press really need to be making more of the fact that Hancock talked about 100,000 daily tests and we’re still at less than 15,000.
 

Utdstar01

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I’m possibly being stupid but that tweet says both 367,667 tests have concluded, and then says 290,720 people have been tested, how’s that work?

Also the press really need to be making more of the fact that Hancock talked about 100,000 daily tests and we’re still at less than 15,000.
I was just thinking that :confused:
 

NinjaFletch

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I’m possibly being stupid but that tweet says both 367,667 tests have concluded, and then says 290,720 people have been tested, how’s that work?

Also the press really need to be making more of the fact that Hancock talked about 100,000 daily tests and we’re still at less than 15,000.
Presumably some people have been tested more than once: 367k tests on 290k people.
 

Foxbatt

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The issue is more that it's a drug used for diseases like Lupus and there has been reports that some patients struggle to get it, all of that because a french doctor tried to make a name for himself. Clinical trials make total sense but the way he goes on twitter and sell his "research" is having bad consequences, he forced many countries to allocate a lot of money and energy on something that is showing little effect but because the press made it a miracle drug, everyone tries to debunk/confirm it in the most conclusive way.
It's not only the French doctor. Indian ICMR has recommended it for health workers as a preventive measure too. It does inhibit the covid from infesting according to India. Their dosage is much less than USA was doing. They also have sent free to many countries. Yes everyone is trying everything and even mixing things hoping to find something.
 

JPRouve

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I’m possibly being stupid but that tweet says both 367,667 tests have concluded, and then says 290,720 people have been tested, how’s that work?

Also the press really need to be making more of the fact that Hancock talked about 100,000 daily tests and we’re still at less than 15,000.
For clinical reasons some people are tested more than once, basically you need to test someone the first time and then at least one more time to determine if they are still infected. As for medical staffs, you should test them several times but as far as I know it's a miracle if they are tested once.
 

Rado_N

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Presumably some people have been tested more than once: 367k tests on 290k people.
For clinical reasons some people are tested more than once, basically you need test someone the first time and then at least one more time to determine if they are still infected. As for medical staffs, you should test them several times but as far as I know it's a miracle if they are tested once.

Makes sense, thanks
 

JPRouve

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It's not only the French doctor. Indian ICMR has recommended it for health workers as a preventive measure too. It does inhibit the covid from infesting according to India. Their dosage is much less than USA was doing. They also have sent free to many countries. Yes everyone is trying everything and even mixing things hoping to find something.
I mentioned Raoult regarding the hype and he is the one used as a reference due to his early in vivo trial. There is nothing to base the claim that it does inhibit the Covid, there is nothing to support that it has an effect in vivo but there is a chinese study suggesting that it's one of many drugs that has an effect in vitro.
 

One Night Only

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Off-topic, but my father was with the 8th Army during the amphibious landings in Italy. They got off the boat into the water, he fell over. When he got back up, the two men either side of him had already been shot.
Ah, when being clumsy works in your favour.
 

711

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Off-topic, but my father was with the 8th Army during the amphibious landings in Italy. They got off the boat into the water, he fell over. When he got back up, the two men either side of him had already been shot.
A lottery but of the nastiest sort. It wasn't Salerno he was at was it? I think that was the worst. Denis Healey was beachmaster at Salerno I believe.
 

Foxbatt

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Who would think that Dubya would be proved right when he gave that speech about pandemics? He was spot on and now the US is suffering because Dubya was ignored on this very subject.
 

4bars

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Herd immunity will take approx 80% infected or vaccinated. So aiming for that without a vaccine is madness.

There is no reason to suspect we won't develop immunity although immunity to viruses tends to be shorter term than for bacteria. I don't think there have been proven reinfections although it is quite likely if people have compromised immune systems.
You don't think is achievable without a vaccine if it is controlled?
 

4bars

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And that is how you feck all the work done on the quarantine. Letting the none essential workers back to work. Barcelona metro this morning


 

One Night Only

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Herd immunity will take approx 80% infected or vaccinated. So aiming for that without a vaccine is madness.

There is no reason to suspect we won't develop immunity although immunity to viruses tends to be shorter term than for bacteria. I don't think there have been proven reinfections although it is quite likely if people have compromised immune systems.
Isn't 50% the goal, then the decline starts ?
 

do.ob

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Who would think that Dubya would be proved right when he gave that speech about pandemics? He was spot on and now the US is suffering because Dubya was ignored on this very subject.
Going by that recent NYT article which triggered Trump it actually seems like several people/institutions in the US system realized the danger of this virus quite early and suggested strong measures. It looks like the failure occured at the top of the pyramid.
 

Penna

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A lottery but of the nastiest sort. It wasn't Salerno he was at was it? I think that was the worst. Denis Healey was beachmaster at Salerno I believe.
I'm not sure, that was the only specific thing he ever mentioned about the war. I only found out more details after he died, as he kept every piece of paper he was ever given by the Army. He was in North Africa, he had the Italy Star among his medals and also had a Bulgarian ID card - I think the 8th Army were there in 1945. He was a motorcycle despatch rider, a dangerous job.He never even took his medals out of the box they'd been sent in.

It makes you wonder how things have changed when folk are moaning about not being able to go to a pub for a month or two. It's not a lot to ask of people.
 

Pagh Wraith

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Lots of people out and about over Easter around here but mostly groups of two from what I could tell and police seemed pretty lenient in general. Tracking data shows that the mobility of the population has been steadily increasing. This photo pretty much sums it up:


Current measures are in effect until 19 April with government expected to annouce some relaxations this week, such as a partial opening of schools.
 
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golden_blunder

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I'm not sure, that was the only specific thing he ever mentioned about the war. I only found out more details after he died, as he kept every piece of paper he was ever given by the Army. He was in North Africa, he had the Italy Star among his medals and also had a Bulgarian ID card - I think the 8th Army were there in 1945. He was a motorcycle despatch rider, a dangerous job.He never even took his medals out of the box they'd been sent in.

It makes you wonder how things have changed when folk are moaning about not being able to go to a pub for a month or two. It's not a lot to ask of people.
Sounds like he led an interesting life.

my father-in-law, who is 81, has led a very interesting life too. Left home when he was young after his mum died, no one would look after him so he came down to England from Scotland, joined the army. Ended up in the SAS, then the firebrigade for 30 years and after retirement then became a driver for a few years for the cabinet office. Doesn’t talk much about his army years at all. He was on duty the night there was the horrific fire in the London Underground in the 80s? Doesn’t talk about that much either.
Does talk a bit more about a few of the scallywag MPs he used to ferry about