It’s total who have received ICU for Sweden mate, since it began.
Around 450 nursing home deaths here Pogue, almost all in Stockholm.
I work in pharmaceuticals. So, unfortunately, I’m well aware of the huge rate of attrition of “promising” compounds in early stage development as they get closer to approval. Many a slip twixt cup and lip.
Maybe staggered easing of restrictions for those statistically proven to be less vulnerable?
If the 18 + month estimation is correct than it does not make that much of a difference as we will develop herd immunity by then.
Your last sentence doesn’t really make sense to me. I’m not talking about a “win” for anything based on Sweden’s experience. I’m just saying you can’t put nursing home infections/fatalities to one side, when assessing the overall effectiveness of a government’s strategy. Which you seem to be keen to do here. If anything, nursing home residents are the canary in the coal mine.
So how does something like SARS stop / die down to a level that it doesn’t really impact people day to day anymore?
One key point I have taken out of that though is the chief epidemiologist highlighted the fact that they believe this is a medium-long term strategy
We’ll most likely swap back and forth between lockdown and less extreme social isolation measures until we have a vaccine or herd immunity. I’d say there’s about as much chance of having a vaccine in 18 months as there is of getting herd immunity over the same period of time without a vaccine.
Well how did they manage to contain SARS so much better and why haven't they done so this time?
How many survivors of WWII in the Nordics? It finished 75 years ago.
SARS is less infectious/harder to transmit, in answer to that specific question
Containment strategy. Identify and isolate cases as soon as they arise. Which is easier to do as SARS is only contagious when people are symptomatic and symptomatic people tend to be extremely sick.
I think we will still go for herd immunity but in a relatively managed (and therefore very lengthy) way - nothing else for it other than a vaccine happening really.
Yeah, that's not really the point though, is it? It still most definitely had a lasting impact on the national psyche. Never again, and all that.
Isn't there some promising talk on the ebola drug. There certainly needs to be a sticky plaster for the summer months just to give us all a bit of respite so hopefully it remains effective when the treatment groups gets scaled up.
If nothing else, the rest of the world should be pleased that Sweden adopted this strategy. We need a control group. We learn very little when everyone takes the same approach.
Yeah, I wouldn't put much trust in those specific numbers. It's still a number significantly bigger than our total ICU though. So you're saying your ICU units are stable, i.e., admissions are balanced with recoveries/deaths and there's no concern of overload yet?
We've never come remotely close to the effort going into this one, though.
Arruda was though, not you.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. 744 new deaths as of 5pm yesterday. Orange is a 5 day trailing average (last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes):Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. 823 new deaths as of 5pm yesterday -43 from the day before but it's a weekend. Orange is a 5 day trailing average (last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes):
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/y3rdeA/coronaviruset-har-ar-de-senaste-siffrorna
Well not being a Swede I’d hope you don’t include me.
Yep. Some countries might even try easing different regions at different paces if they think it's viable.
I read that too where we were very close, especially to a SARs vaccine until it became not necessary any more. SARs had a very high mortality rate (I believe > 10%) so would have been considered ultra dangerous at the time.
Gothenburg is in no way of a similar size to Lisbon. Lisbon's metropolitan area has 3 million people. Lisbon's airport moves 6 times more people per year than Gothenburg's.
But you surely can’t believe that we can artificially social distance in our homes until the virus is gone? As I say this is about being optimistic that we can keep a flat curve whilst social distancing ourselves naturally. Or are you a pessimist and genuinely believe that we need to be locked in our homes for a year?
Yes. There was article in the economist on 4.4. about bergamo, quite similar findings.
I believe, like @11101 has expressed earlier, we need to be locked until we know exactly what to do.
US newspaper/ TV station is reporting that China is in the 2nd phase of testing a vaccine. They completed the first phase last month. It's the safety phase. So now it's to see how effective it is. I think we should have some news of others testing for vaccines by the end of this month.
Yeah Canada is getting shellacked as far as nursing homes go.
