https://lab.gedidigital.it/gedi-visual/2020/coronavirus-i-contagi-in-italia/
Go down to "VARIAZIONE E INCIDENZA DELL'ULTIMO GIORNO IN ITALIA" to find the data for different provinces. You can use google translate on the page.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Go down to "VARIAZIONE E INCIDENZA DELL'ULTIMO GIORNO IN ITALIA" to find the data for different provinces. You can use google translate on the page.
Very interesting indeed. Thanks for sharing.
Well that seems to suggest it'll all be over and done with by June in the UK .... Not likely is it.
Which is why you and I will always differ in this. I absolutely respect your point and I understand why you feel that way especially with the incredible job that you do.
For me though I will class countries that flatten the curve whilst managing to keep on with society as well as possible as “successful”, as I believe you cannot stay locked down long term. Within very little time it would begin to cause complete anarchy.
The problem is that it is difficult to claim that many will not die of measures if they go on for two years. One month of lockdown in in most places, the economy is already crashing... What will happen in a year? Suicide, homelessness, increased heart problems due to stress and staying indoors, etc.
What you are writing about (2 year + ) is a solution ideal from a point of view taking only the virus into account, but there are other factors to consider. Many other factors.
However, I maintain that, if the vaccine does not arrive by the end of the year, it will not matter all that much, as most people will get sick anyway, with lockdowns being untenable for more than a couple of months.
35-50% of deaths in Finland are from nursing homes, so quite similar. It isn't the explanation you think it is.
‘You’re overlooking one factor here’....
No. I’m applying broad strokes.
- Potential New forms of lending, or greater appetite for different instruments
- Huge sectors (insurance, financial services, etc) giving up bloated office spaces as they’ve just realised people will work from home quite responsibly
- The repurposing of those spaces
- A huge reduction in house prices
- A large amount of housing stock becoming available
So much will happen. Most of it unknown. Holding Pity parties because we have it tough is ridiculous.
You’ve also told me that the boomer generation had forgotten the war in 15 years, at the same time people here are rolling the last GFC into Covid as a double whammy, a 12 year gap.
Change is driven by doers. Not complainers. There are successful paths through challenging time’s and energy spent moving in that direction is more helpful than ‘The Boomers got to buy a house in exchange for doubling the amount of household hours worked, they were so lucky’
* Example : My friends family are already discussing ways to combine existing mortgages into a single entity and aggregate the risk across them all.
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Tomorrow will probably be telling one way or the other. We've just had a bank holiday weekend and weekends tend to have a drop in deaths reported which are then filled in as the next week progresses. We might have 3 days worth of under reporting to fill in.
Im pretty surprised this wasnt a thing on beaches anyway, always a total mess going on the beach and never finding where you put your towel and belongings , now there's the premium "glamping" version all for free.
Yeah I can see tomorrow and Thursday being very, very bad sadly. Followed by a decline for a few days, and then the same next week - but I do think that within 1-2 weeks from now, the 'Peaks' will be getting noticeably smaller.
Who would in their right mind want to go in there? Looks almost like a Greenhouse.
The first wave probably will be. More waves to come though.
It's fecking terrible. 2 days worth of data caused it to drop its mean prediction for UK from 66k down to 37k. Its prior prediction now lies above its current upper confidence interval. It took Belgium 4 days to breach its prediction for where they'd be on August 4th, Italy will breach its upper confidence interval within 2 days.
One problem with it seems to be that it demands the data follow a bell curve. This is something that's just not being observed in reality.
Thanks, but I think that still only shows how many cases, not the deaths. I can see Bergamo has 10.391 cases, but not death number.
After 2 months in lockdown, I imagine people will be desperate to go anywhere. Just not sure how the temperature won't be unbearable in those.
Interesting site, though weirdly very wrong about Norway's ICU capacity, which makes it seem like there's already a shortage and going to be even more of one. In reality we've currently got 73 people in ICU, and it's been very slowly falling for a couple of weeks. It's the same story with corona-hospitalizations in general. Things could still change drastically, of course, but at the very least it's not a clear pattern of (exponential) growth.
@massi83
What’s your explanation for the extremely low death numbers in Gothenburg and Malmo then, why are they not so different to Helsinki?
Nonsense. It may lead to some levels of oppression, not anarchy. Certainly not in countries with modern police forces and armed forces.
Most people will be afraid to join any forming riot. The few that don't care will be dealt with.
I hope they thought this through, otherwise putting people in glass boxes exposed to the sun does not sound like fun. Its like a greenhouse albeit without a top.
According to google, Västra Götalands län alone has practically the same amount of deaths as Finland. It's clearly not a disaster like Stockholm, but the Swedish numbers are still higher than neighbouring countries even accounting for that.@massi83
What’s your explanation for the extremely low death numbers in Gothenburg and Malmo then, why are they not so different to Helsinki?
I described nothing of that sort. That's your own imagination. I'm talking about the military doing police work, because police are already stretched and will need far more rotation than usual due to quarantines.
And, if western societies ever reach an extreme boiling point, it will most likely be responded to with oppression, not anarchy.
And I wish nothing of the sort. It just may have to be done. In my island Police is stretched thin imposing sanitary barriers between areas (fragmenting the island, which seems to be an effective strategy). One particular area was having problems due to low literacy and social problems. At the time we considered activating armed forces to help police in that area. It wasn't necessary in the end, aa people slowly got around to the need of staying home.
This has been done countless times, asking the army to help with fires and other natural disasters. Nothing strange about it.
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Put it this way man. There's definitely some posters on here, nobody I'm specifically thinking of, but still, who WANT Sweden to fail.
Because if Sweden succeeds they've been talking shit for weeks and it'll make them wonder what exactly we've all been doing indoors for weeks on end. Now, don't get me wrong, I am not saying Sweden are going to succeed here - I hope to feck you do. But there are definitely people who want Sweden to fail and suffer 'like the rest of us'.
Sounds lovely, boss.
Travelling would come to mind first. GDP per capita in Uusimaa around $60.000, Västra Götaland $50.000, Skåne $40.000.@massi83
What’s your explanation for the extremely low death numbers in Gothenburg and Malmo then, why are they not so different to Helsinki?
Don't insult me due to your own lack of comprehension.
What's your alternative? Italy all over the place, again?
So $10.000 is the answer?
So Stockholm having higher GDP means than all means what then?
This is talking about the month of March, it was published on 1 April:
https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories...s-in-one-month-in-the-province-of_1347414_11/
Yea Remdesivir. They found it improved people two thirds of the time.
There was no control group though so we dont know if that was pure luck.
The narrative for some (not all) has certainly changed from “Sweden is the next Italy/Spain, they are fecked” to something a little more intangible so early into a pandemic.
And still no one can give me an answer as to why such big cities in Sweden like Gothenburg are doing so well if this strategy is so doomed to fail.
The optimist in me says that Gothenburg is a shining example that we can keep schools open, that we can maintain natural social distance and good hygiene, and that we can keep this curve extremely flat.
Thank you
This much was in the Economist also. Maybe we just have to wait couple of weeks, until they publish April numbers.https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200413144055.htm
An article on Remdesivir. They still have to do randomized trials though.
An article on Remdesivir. They still have to do randomized trials though.
In Canada we call the army in to help whenever we get crazy winter storms.
That it had more cases from travelling to the alps. Stockholm's GDP btw $75.000, so 87.5% more than Skåne.
With the common cold there are too many strains, 200 or more. They're always circulating and when you get one it doesn't really give you any immunity against it or any other strain. With Covid19 there are only a handful if that.
The flu has less strains to begin with, only 10 or 20 of them cause the majority of infections, and they don't all circulate at once.
Dwazza where in Canada are you? How is the situation there?
I can't give you a definitive answer but Toulouse which is about the same size is doing as well. My guess is simply that both cities are far enough from the source of the epidemy(within each country) and luckily avoided regional clusters. A particularly weird thing is Montpellier, there is a cluster 20km away(Maugio-Lunel) but nothing in the city, somehow it didn't spread efficiently.
Edit: And I forgot to mention that Nice avoided a cluster too despite its proximity and links with northern Italy.
Gothenburg's numbers are rising. Depends at what rate they continue to increase. But I do think it is possible to keep it at managable leves with schools and restaurants open. With things you mention and masks and better testing and tracing and mobile apps. But still unsure myself.