SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Sparky Rhiwabon

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I'm pretty sure there is massive coverage about PPE in hospitals as well.

What I don't understand is why we can't take these old people into hospitals for the healthcare that they need? Yes, tough decisions need to be made if the NHS is overwhelmed. But it isn't.

What's the point in turning old people away from the hospital when it is them who actually need help the most and we have the capacity to help them? If we try our best and they pass anyway in hospital, so be it. But fecking try, at least.

"The NHS is for everyone" (except the old and those with underlying health conditions lol)
It would increase the headline number of deaths numbers
 

One Night Only

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Hmmm, not really seeing the value of using Z score (rather than something more directly correlated to the actual numbers of excess deaths) there - the FT's briefing seems more intelligible really - https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c. Maybe someone can explain why using the Z score is statistically helpful.

I do agree with the central premise though - we need to look at excess deaths to get a serious idea of how we're doing. "Covid on the death certificate" isn't enough of a guide given the lack of testing in the community and the numbers dying without hospital treatment.
The graphs don't look as scary otherwise. People just use whatever stats they want that fit their agenda. The entire thing reeks.

"I was hesitant to post this" no he wasnt, the minute he had created it he was already in the middle of posting it.
 

Alabaster Codify7

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The second round of easing restrictions in Slovenia will begin next week. Bars and restaurants will be able to open on May 4th, but will only be able to serve on terraces and patios. Libraries, museums, galleries will also open on the same day. As will churches, which will even be able to hold a mass, which seem like a terrible idea, but I guess you have to pander to your voter base if you're a terrible government. Most of non-essential business and stores can all begin work next Monday as well.

So we're slowly getting some semblance of normality back. Course as far as I can tell we still won't be able to leave our municipalities for non-essential reasons (which always was and still is dumb, considering how small and useless some of them are) and schools and universities will remain closed until 11th of May at least. There's still a nation wide study going on which will test at least 1500 randomly selected people. 3000 invitations were sent out and about 1300 people responded, so they'll need to do a second part of the study after the holidays.

We've also had our very own dumb protests going on in some of larger "cities". Some of it was fueled, by the fact that our brilliant politicians likely managed to do some light embezzling when procuring the PPE. The usual "exploit an emergency state for some easy corruption" deal that we get every so often here, normally by the same exact politicians that did it the last time. It's usually discovered a few years after the fact, but this time we had a whistle blower that managed to put the whole sham to light quite early. But most of the protest was just general, non specific bullshit, ranging from anything between corona is less dangerous than the flu and 5g/chipping/state control nonsense. Either way hopefully there won't be any new clusters thanks to this ridiculousness.
Very positive news man, sounds good.



The graphs don't look as scary otherwise. People just use whatever stats they want that fit their agenda. The entire thing reeks.

"I was hesitant to post this" no he wasnt, the minute he had created it he was already in the middle of posting it.

Hahaha, you're spot on.
"Oooooh, I don't know if I should share this but...…." The entire point of creating it was to fecking share it.
 

Suedesi

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I am all for gov't bashing where needed, but lots of people need to take personal responsibility as well. There were lost of videos of English holiday-makers in Spain drinking in crowded pubs and just being loud annoying gits even though that country was in early phases of quarantine.

Same thing in the States with partygoers in Florida and New Orleans, and throughout the country around St Patrick's day. YOLO cnuts.
 
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Pogue Mahone

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I am all for gov't bashing where needed, but lots of people need to take personal responsibility as well. There were lost of videos of English holiday-makers in Spain drinking in crowded pubs and just being loud annoying gits even though that country was in early phases of quarantine.

Same thing in the States with partygoers in Florida and New Orleans, and throughout the country around St Patrick's day. YOLO cnuts.
I am all for gov't bashing where needed, but lots of people need to take personal responsibility as well. There were lost of videos of English holiday-makers in Spain drinking in crowded pubs and just being loud annoying gits even though that country was in early phases of quarantine.

Same thing in the States with partygoers in Florida and New Orleans, and throughout the country around St Patrick's day. YOLO cnuts.
I generally agree but don’t forget that the UK and US governments were both going against the grain at around that time, with talk of herd immunity and reassuring people that it was a fairly mild disease. So it’s no surprise that both countries had more than their share of “just a flu” covidiots in the opening week or two of their epidemics.
 

Shakesy

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I generally agree but don’t forget that the UK and US governments were both going against the grain at around that time, with talk of herd immunity and reassuring people that it was a fairly mild disease. So it’s no surprise that both countries had more than their share of “just a flu” covidiots in the opening week or two of their epidemics.
In SA the "just a flu" brigade is gaining momentum and we're on Day 33 of lockdown. The covidiot growth is exponential.
 

Suedesi

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I generally agree but don’t forget that the UK and US governments were both going against the grain at around that time, with talk of herd immunity and reassuring people that it was a fairly mild disease. So it’s no surprise that both countries had more than their share of “just a flu” covidiots in the opening week or two of their epidemics.
Can't speak about England, but herd immunity was never touted in the States. Locally speaking, there were idiots like De Blasio or Dr. Oxiris Barbot who were initially very laissez-faire (~ February talking about joining large crowds in Chinatown and celebrating the new lunar year), but once the alarm bells started ringing (in part due to the situation in Italy and Spain) the public health messaging* was very clear - this is serious, take precautions. Some idiots never ever gave a shit.

*I'm ignoring Fox News obviously because the YOLO crowd would never watch it in the first place.

Herd immunity was the wrong strategy from the get-go (we're not cattle ffs), but some people take it to the extremes with the partying. "The pubs are open, therefore I'll take full advantage, YOLO". The gov't could in fact be wrong and all evidence from the around the globe at that time seemed to point that way, so use your brain and some precaution people.
 

Sarni

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In SA the "just a flu" brigade is gaining momentum and we're on Day 33 of lockdown. The covidiot growth is exponential.
Same here. Our mortality is very low because we went into lockdown early so people think it’s just a flu or even weaker. People are just mostly cretins.
 

Fluctuation0161

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Yes they are all as bad as each other and even if it had been a government of national unity it would still have fecked it up. As for the media all I can say is thank god the same pillocks were not about during WW2. Then we fecked up Poland, France, Dunkirk, Norway....etc etc. If the same tosspots working with hindsight today were commentating then we would have begged Germany for peace within the first twelve months.

And as for private homes they also have a duty of care it cannot all be passed sideways onto any government. If they can simply pass that duty on what’s the fecking point of them. Might just as well say that employers like Branson are quite right to say it’s not his responsibility to support his workers if they are not making him a profit.
The biggest mistake is making out that battling the virus is like WW2. Do you think of the UK papers print criticism the virus will find out and use the information against us? No, it is a ridiculous comparison designed to stop people questioning the terrible reaction government has made.
 

JMack1234

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The biggest mistake is making out that battling the virus is like WW2. Do you think of the UK papers print criticism the virus will find out and use the information against us? No, it is a ridiculous comparison designed to stop people questioning the terrible reaction government has made.
Exactly!

The UK press and public love a good war analogy. Which in this situation is dangerous in two ways.

Lazy war analogies both overstated the risk of the virus to most people whilst silencing legitimate criticism of the government.
 

Wibble

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Can't speak about England, but herd immunity was never touted in the States. Locally speaking, there were idiots like De Blasio or Dr. Oxiris Barbot who were initially very laissez-faire (~ February talking about joining large crowds in Chinatown and celebrating the new lunar year), but once the alarm bells started ringing (in part due to the situation in Italy and Spain) the public health messaging* was very clear - this is serious, take precautions. Some idiots never ever gave a shit.

*I'm ignoring Fox News obviously because the YOLO crowd would never watch it in the first place.

Herd immunity was the wrong strategy from the get-go (we're not cattle ffs), but some people take it to the extremes with the partying. "The pubs are open, therefore I'll take full advantage, YOLO". The gov't could in fact be wrong and all evidence from the around the globe at that time seemed to point that way, so use your brain and some precaution people.
Erm?

Herd immunity is the aim but unless we want mass death the only way most places can realistically get that is a vaccine.
 

spiriticon

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There is no evidence that there is any sort of long term immunity gained from combating this virus. 'Herd immunity' is a hell of a big risk without that knowledge.

If there isn't any long term immunity, you've basically fecked all the old people and still have nothing to show for it...
 

JMack1234

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Stats from the Sutton Trust as reported on Newsnight.

30% of Pupils from Middle Class families are taking part in online lessons everyday.
57% of pupils from Independent Secondary Schools are taking part in daily online lessons.
16% of pupils from Working Class families are taking part in daily online lessons.

50% of Private schools are getting work handed in
27% in the most advantaged State Schools are getting work back
8% of the least advantaged State Schools are getting work back

33% of the Most deprived Schools say their Pupils have no access to the equipment to learn online

These school closures will be devastating for the social mobility of a whole generation.
 

Wibble

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There is no evidence that there is any sort of long term immunity gained from combating this virus. 'Herd immunity' is a hell of a big risk without that knowledge.

If there isn't any long term immunity, you've basically fecked all the old people and still have nothing to show for it...
Trying for herd immunity without a vaccine has many risks. It is most likely that symptomatic infections produce antibodies and that this will give some degree of immunity for 1-3 years. Likely but not confirmed.

We don't know if mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic infections will have produced sufficient antibodies to produce future immunity. We really just don't know at this stage.

We don't even know if the Ro is 3 or 5 yet. And if the higher figure this means we will need a HIT of over 80% and I wouldn't want to see the death toll if we got there without a vaccine.

That said a vaccine is again likely but not assured and the time frame could be anything from 12 months to 5+ years plus a year for worldwide manufacture and distribution (and factor in the anger and recrimination caused by the US or China or whoever competing for the first shipments).

Caution is the best option at the moment. especially in countries like the US and UK who made such a total arse of their initial response and have far from controlled circumstances.
 

Wibble

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Stats from the Sutton Trust as reported on Newsnight.

30% of Pupils from Middle Class families are taking part in online lessons everyday.
57% of pupils from Independent Secondary Schools are taking part in daily online lessons.
16% of pupils from Working Class families are taking part in daily online lessons.

50% of Private schools are getting work handed in
27% in the most advantaged State Schools are getting work back
8% of the least advantaged State Schools are getting work back

33% of the Most deprived Schools say their Pupils have no access to the equipment to learn online

These school closures will be devastating for the social mobility of a whole generation.
That is very low indeed in all categories. Massively lower than in Australia even in the more deprived areas. More government defunding no doubt.
 

Wibble

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Hmmm, not really seeing the value of using Z score (rather than something more directly correlated to the actual numbers of excess deaths) there - the FT's briefing seems more intelligible really - https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c. Maybe someone can explain why using the Z score is statistically helpful.

I do agree with the central premise though - we need to look at excess deaths to get a serious idea of how we're doing. "Covid on the death certificate" isn't enough of a guide given the lack of testing in the community and the numbers dying without hospital treatment.
Dredging up old memory so probably wrong but aren't z scores good for comparing data on 2 different normal distributions so (I'm assuming) good for comoaring nwo with other non-Covid years?
 

golden_blunder

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The government banned evictions for any reason, hasnt he at the very least broke the law here?
[/QUOTE]
Apparently there’s a loophole if you’re a lodger with a live-in landlord, not the same protection
 

Smores

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The graphs don't look as scary otherwise. People just use whatever stats they want that fit their agenda. The entire thing reeks.

"I was hesitant to post this" no he wasnt, the minute he had created it he was already in the middle of posting it.
I'm not sure why you'd choose to comment on this because you clearly don't understand what you're commenting on do you?
 

golden_blunder

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Stats from the Sutton Trust as reported on Newsnight.

30% of Pupils from Middle Class families are taking part in online lessons everyday.
57% of pupils from Independent Secondary Schools are taking part in daily online lessons.
16% of pupils from Working Class families are taking part in daily online lessons.

50% of Private schools are getting work handed in
27% in the most advantaged State Schools are getting work back
8% of the least advantaged State Schools are getting work back

33% of the Most deprived Schools say their Pupils have no access to the equipment to learn online

These school closures will be devastating for the social mobility of a whole generation.
No, the fact that the Tories have for decades under resourced public schools will contribute more to kids getting left behind than closing schools for a couple of months
 

JMack1234

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No, the fact that the Tories have for decades under resourced public schools will contribute more to kids getting left behind than closing schools for a couple of months
Two things can be true at the same time can't they?

You can argue that schools are under resourced and closing them for a few months really doesn't help matters.

The data also proves that it's the pupils who need a good education the most who are getting left behind by school closures.
 

Wibble

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Two things can be true at the same time can't they?

You can argue that schools are under resourced and closing them for a few months really doesn't help matters.

The data also proves that it's the pupils who need a good education the most who are getting left behind by school closures.
Tory 101 - feck the poor then blame them for their own situation.
 

Suedesi

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Erm?

Herd immunity is the aim but unless we want mass death the only way most places can realistically get that is a vaccine.
The aim is to not get sick. Pursuing a herd immunity strategy whereby you allow 80% of the population to contract the virus would result in countless death from the disease and from lack of beds in ICU - was stupid.
 

Wibble

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The aim is to not get sick. Pursuing a herd immunity strategy whereby you allow 80% of the population to contract the virus would result in countless death from the disease and from lack of beds in ICU - was stupid.
I agree you don't want to get herd immunity through letting the virus run rampant but herd immunity is still the aim. With a vaccine. Without one - I don't really want to think to hard about that one.
 

Wibble

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If true, IFR could be much higher than the 0.5 to 1% often talked about.
There will be uncounted Covid deaths, other deaths due to things like people not seeking medical help as often/in time, more drink/drug/suicide deaths maybe but on the other hand I'd say crime,/gun deaths, road accident deaths and flu deaths will be down. And other things I didn't think of.

On balance my guess is that the as yet uncounted Covid deaths will outweigh the other factors - I guess we will see in due course.