It's looking extremely promising man, I for one am very happy for Sweden. I would think most are, but I also think some countries' media were definitely looking forward to the 'told you so' mocking that was to come when Sweden became the next Italy. Fingers crossed it keeps on this way for you!
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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It's looking extremely promising man, I for one am very happy for Sweden. I would think most are, but I also think some countries' media were definitely looking forward to the 'told you so' mocking that was to come when Sweden became the next Italy. Fingers crossed it keeps on this way for you!
How have they managed it?
I don't know whether their approach is working or not but that article is clearly nonsense. The ambassador thinks 30% of Stockholm has immunity. There are almost 1 million people in the city centre. Sweden as a country has only reported 20,000 cases. Even if they were all in the capital, where have the other 280,000 got their immunity from?
What's your issue with the 70%? The information is gathered from official sources. It can be explained away because the Swedes are only testing those who are already showing serious symptoms, or only testing the elderly, or some other reason, but you can't take the positive official figures and disregard the negative ones.
I completely agree the Swedish approach is much more suitable for Sweden compared to most other countries though.
Absolutely no idea, mate. But they've done very well, however they have done it.
They have done nothing because they didn't need to.
Why do you say they didn't need to? Honest question, you will know a lot more than me.
• 20000 confirmed cases.
• 2350 dead. (Including over 30% nursing home deaths, many not tested but suspected).
• 2238 currently in hospital, of which 531 in ICU.
so where is the 70% from @Sied?
Ignore worldometers mate and check:
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se...a-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/
The same way all European countries will now the initial hammering since half term is over, social distancing, good hygiene and great (no doctors note required) sick pay.
Everyone got hit by surprise, we’ll all be better after the lockdown at keeping the curve flat.
That's great, thanks.
Maybe just data extrapolation from the amount tested to tested positive across the country and in Stockholm.
They've been banging that drum for a while now with different random figures each week. I'm sure it's as accurate as the last study posted.
Either Sweden is some magic outlier or these assumptions are bogus.
New Zealand;
- Has about 4m people
- Only one City over 500,000 people
- No high density housing
- No mass public transport system
- Its nearest neighbour is a 4 hour flight away
- Has little daily travel that sees people leave their towns and neighbourhoods
- No pub culture
- An almost impossible to appreciate culture for the outdoors
- Very low levels of social interaction in those over 25
- Doesn’t have a single nightclub of the size most would define as a ‘Club’
With regards to just Auckland, a City of 1.5m;
- Walk into any bar in The City at any time of year and you’ll almost certainly find a table and as many chairs as you like.
- Almost everyone drives a personal car
- Many walk to work
Now I’m not suggesting it’s some backwards place that doesn’t have a social side, but it’s so different. It’s a tiny place at the bottom of the world and was uniquely placed to handle it well.
That they have, is still to their credit. I worried for them. They have illnesses like Strep & Rheumatic Fever that still run rampant there. Their healthcare is good, but they had nothing like the capacity needed to control an outbreak. I thought they had a bullseye painted on them, but thankfully Jacinder got shit together early.
I won’t let anyone hold them up as an example of how to do it though. There were elements of luck involved at the outset. Had they had 20 people get off a cruise ship and go back to an elderly community or two, they would have seen many dead there. Some of the things that make it such a frustrating country to live in, have worked to its benefit.
It hasn’t all been down to a well led and coordinated Government response. Though Jacinder and Labour have been close to perfect since their first measures were rolled out. Don’t kid yourself that she could have done that here though.
It’s based on their mathematical model from the 2.5% bearing positive virus test in March.
Now they have the most accurate antibody test in World (Karolinska say) I suspect they’ll know very soon if that model is close or way off pie in the sky bullshit.
It's risky to rely on that number if that's how they've calculated it, by extrapolating samples. Other countries have already shown the prevalence of the virus varies wildly between communities even in neighbouring areas.
So what are the variables in Sweden that make such an approach impossible in other countries?
You only need to do something if you have a big cluster within your borders and make sure that it doesn't go from one region to the other. Sweden didn't had a big cluster when most European countries who had at least one decided to shut their borders which means that the virus was mainly stuck where he already was. And since Sweden isn't a densely populated country, the cluster in Stockholm was manageable.
So 4 weeks of covid19 sick leave followed up by 2 weeks of paternity leave!
Am sure Boris won’t take the paternity leave but both these distractions are physically and emotionally exhausting, especially for a PM.
Am not blaming Boris for these coincidences of events but we really need his head in the game right now. UK is so fcuked!
Am sure Boris won’t take the paternity leave but both these distractions are physically and emotionally exhausting, especially for a PM.
Am not blaming Boris for these coincidences of events but we really need his head in the game right now. UK is so fcuked!
How did they work this out? Seems to be completely out of whack with all available evidence.
Thanks, man.
How is it looking in France at the moment, from your point of view? Is there now light at the end of the tunnel?
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30% is maybe a little high, but high 20% likely to have been infected and therefore have immunity I think is the rough number.
It gets worse! 30% right now. Herd immunity in May. I’m calling bullshit. Sweden really needs to stop issuing press released based on shoddy data.
Why?
Thnigs seems to be going well, the regions that were hit are seemingly recovering and the ones that weren't hit in March haven't seen any new cluster.
The problem being that we don't know if anyone has immunity or the long term consequences of an infection. This is probably the part that irks me the most, politicians and pseudo-scientists who want to draw weak conclusions instead of simply observing something that clearly no one understand yet.
Mathematical model based on that 2.5% bearing the virus in late March test (700-ish people). And a load of other variables I guess.
As I say, this new antibody test should tell us pretty soon how far off their model is.
They assume death rate of 0.3% and other stupid stuff. So highly unlikely they are correct.
Only people with serious symptons get tested these days, right?
In a Brussels hospital which tests every patient admitted, approximately 10% of non-corona related patients has been testing positive without any symptoms. If you apply that percentage to a population, and add all the people who've been infected without even going to the doctor (let alone the hospital) but just wait it out at home, you'd get a number a lot higher than the reported 20k cases.
Great to hear, sounds encouraging.
It will indeed. Meanwhile I’m taking these claims re herd immunity with a massive pinch of salt. Completely contradicts all available data on mortality from every other country.
Let’s just hope they don’t issue a press release announcing herd immunity after they’ve tested their first 100 patients!
Anyway, herd immunity long term issue. So not important now. Main thing is you’ve loads of ICU beds still available. Which is good to see.
I don't think it is a weak conclusion that people infected with this virus will have immunity. We aren't certain of the mechanics yet but we'll almost certainly develop immunity to this after infection.
There's a lot of scare mongering in the media and mis interpretation of caution from WHO for example. The whole 'no evidence people have immunity' headlines was just borne out of caution on the experts side.
Haha, you’d hope both FHM & Karolinska have learned their lesson after those calamitous couple of days.It will indeed. Meanwhile I’m taking these claims re herd immunity with a massive pinch of salt. Completely contradicts all available data on mortality from every other country.
Let’s just hope they don’t issue a press release announcing herd immunity after they’ve tested their first 100 patients!
What I will say for FHM is that they seem pretty confident the number of new cases in Stockholm is matching their model closely, mentioning that even 20% immunity is substantial in reducing spread and that they see the evidence of that.
We’ll all know soon enough, but everything about these past 5 weeks in Sweden gives me so much confidence that Europe can live with this virus and keep the curve flat.
You're basing this on what research exactly?
It's not like we haven't had these non-peer reviewed models issued in the UK as well. We had one weeks ago that went through the tabloids claiming 50% of the UK were infected but thankfully our government rightly ignored it as nonsense.
PHE think it's below 10% with the exception possibly being London.
You see the bolded part, that's what makes it weak. You don't draw conclusions when you don't understand the basic mechanics, it doesn't mean that you are scaremongering but simply acknowledging the limitations of your current knowledge. Some people are scared that they can't even accept a simple, "we don't know yet".
70% was the death rate in closed cases, meaning of those 20,000 confirmed cases (or 19,621 as both your link and worldometer say), 1,005 have recovered and 2,355 (or 70%) have died. It doesn't mean 70% of people who caught it in Sweden died.
The two websites seem to be the same figures, although I don't speak Swedish so I could be misunderstanding some of your link!
Sweden only test hospital patients mate and staff, so the number of “recovered” is simply not updated. That much is obvious though I thought?
This is very true and the UK Government and the whole Medical and Caring profession in the UK will need to think things through after Covid-19. Simply a return of the old 'geriatric' wards/hospitals where old people were in effect 'racked and stacked' will not be enough, the various 'ageing conditions' will need to be catered for as specialist areas, as too the length of time the average person will spend in such a place.
The costs however of caring properly for the elderly have always been somewhat prohibitive for the public purse in the past and will become more so, especially if the economy does 'nose-dive' after Corvid-19. With people living longer, the hope of a reinvented 'joined up' Care Service for the Elderly will not be high on any Government list when 'it's the economy stupid' that is the main concern.
Possibly, but 20k to 300k+ is a big jump. If herd immunity is your strategy you need to be spot on in your estimates.
That's a 12% death rate in my book, very misleading to have it at 70% imo.
People are a little bit early to praise Sweden considering they still have several times more deaths per million inhabitants than neighbouring countries and are among the highest deaths per million in the world, of course behind obvious ones like Spain, Italy, UK, France, but more deaths per million than the US for example. So based on that it's pretty weird to call their approach a success. Right now it looks like a big failure, but we have to see in the coming year or so if the figures even out and then conclude.
You literally just made that up @massi83. Mortality rate isn’t even in the model.