Mathematical model based on that 2.5% bearing the virus in late March test (700-ish people). And a load of other variables I guess.
As I say, this new antibody test should tell us pretty soon how far off their model is.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Mathematical model based on that 2.5% bearing the virus in late March test (700-ish people). And a load of other variables I guess.
As I say, this new antibody test should tell us pretty soon how far off their model is.
They assume death rate of 0.3% and other stupid stuff. So highly unlikely they are correct.
Only people with serious symptons get tested these days, right?
In a Brussels hospital which tests every patient admitted, approximately 10% of non-corona related patients has been testing positive without any symptoms. If you apply that percentage to a population, and add all the people who've been infected without even going to the doctor (let alone the hospital) but just wait it out at home, you'd get a number a lot higher than the reported 20k cases.
It will indeed. Meanwhile I’m taking these claims re herd immunity with a massive pinch of salt. Completely contradicts all available data on mortality from every other country.
Let’s just hope they don’t issue a press release announcing herd immunity after they’ve tested their first 100 patients!
Anyway, herd immunity long term issue. So not important now. Main thing is you’ve loads of ICU beds still available. Which is good to see.
I don't think it is a weak conclusion that people infected with this virus will have immunity. We aren't certain of the mechanics yet but we'll almost certainly develop immunity to this after infection.
There's a lot of scare mongering in the media and mis interpretation of caution from WHO for example. The whole 'no evidence people have immunity' headlines was just borne out of caution on the experts side.
It will indeed. Meanwhile I’m taking these claims re herd immunity with a massive pinch of salt. Completely contradicts all available data on mortality from every other country.
Let’s just hope they don’t issue a press release announcing herd immunity after they’ve tested their first 100 patients!
Haha, you’d hope both FHM & Karolinska have learned their lesson after those calamitous couple of days.
What I will say for FHM is that they seem pretty confident the number of new cases in Stockholm is matching their model closely, mentioning that even 20% immunity is substantial in reducing spread and that they see the evidence of that.
We’ll all know soon enough, but everything about these past 5 weeks in Sweden gives me so much confidence that Europe can live with this virus and keep the curve flat.
You're basing this on what research exactly?
It's not like we haven't had these non-peer reviewed models issued in the UK as well. We had one weeks ago that went through the tabloids claiming 50% of the UK were infected but thankfully our government rightly ignored it as nonsense.
PHE think it's below 10% with the exception possibly being London.
You see the bolded part, that's what makes it weak. You don't draw conclusions when you don't understand the basic mechanics, it doesn't mean that you are scaremongering but simply acknowledging the limitations of your current knowledge. Some people are scared that they can't even accept a simple, "we don't know yet".
70% was the death rate in closed cases, meaning of those 20,000 confirmed cases (or 19,621 as both your link and worldometer say), 1,005 have recovered and 2,355 (or 70%) have died. It doesn't mean 70% of people who caught it in Sweden died.
The two websites seem to be the same figures, although I don't speak Swedish so I could be misunderstanding some of your link!
Sweden only test hospital patients mate and staff, so the number of “recovered” is simply not updated. That much is obvious though I thought?
This is very true and the UK Government and the whole Medical and Caring profession in the UK will need to think things through after Covid-19. Simply a return of the old 'geriatric' wards/hospitals where old people were in effect 'racked and stacked' will not be enough, the various 'ageing conditions' will need to be catered for as specialist areas, as too the length of time the average person will spend in such a place.
The costs however of caring properly for the elderly have always been somewhat prohibitive for the public purse in the past and will become more so, especially if the economy does 'nose-dive' after Corvid-19. With people living longer, the hope of a reinvented 'joined up' Care Service for the Elderly will not be high on any Government list when 'it's the economy stupid' that is the main concern.
Possibly, but 20k to 300k+ is a big jump. If herd immunity is your strategy you need to be spot on in your estimates.
That's a 12% death rate in my book, very misleading to have it at 70% imo.
People are a little bit early to praise Sweden considering they still have several times more deaths per million inhabitants than neighbouring countries and are among the highest deaths per million in the world, of course behind obvious ones like Spain, Italy, UK, France, but more deaths per million than the US for example. So based on that it's pretty weird to call their approach a success. Right now it looks like a big failure, but we have to see in the coming year or so if the figures even out and then conclude.
cheers Robin, thought that much was obvious. If only 2000ish people are still in hospital and 2000ish have died, what happened to the other 16000? Just vanished?
Have visualisations gone too far?
Yeh, it's important these non-peer reviewed studies are used with caution. But it is the best we have so far. The study below looked for antibodies in blood donors, I think they come up with a number around 14% when accounting for the sensitivity of the test. This was mid April, so will be rapidly increasing.
Yeh - 10% + in London might be about right?
Great example of being cautious of early studies...checkout the retraction!
Well not peer reviewed conclusions, but speculation on an internet forum I think is OK. Do you just not want to speculate? It's a pretty obvious prediction based on everything we know about coronavirus that we'll develop immunity.
We don't know yet for 100% signed and scientifically sealed but I bet ask anybody in the medical community privately and they'd be 99% certain we will have immunity. My boss was in hospital and the doctors were telling him he'll be developing anti bodies over the next week or so (as they discharged him).
Fair enough, which takes me back to my original point where I said there's obviously reasons behind the figure being so much higher than the average. If you're only testing hospital patients and staff, that comes with its own issues, which is where I'd caution other countries looking at your case as one to follow.
I've seen Americans in favour of getting back to work using Sweden as an example. My boss brought Sweden up last week too, as he's clearly keen to get us back to work. The problem is they're just looking at the part of the argument that suits their agenda and there's much more to it. Like you said, the Swedish approach suits Sweden. It could be catastrophic applied to other countries.
People here talking about as if lockdown can last for another year. My country's government is already talking about how to resume the summer tourism season and in general looking for a way out of the situation as quickly as possible.
No country can survive a lockdown until next year, as rich as you believe you are. The citizens will start having severe issues with dealing with such strict restrictions. I can also see the more powerful countries starting more conflicts for resources around the world and the struggle for influence in regions all over the globe will intensify.
My country's government is already talking about how to resume the summer tourism season and in general looking for a way out of the situation as quickly as possible.No country can survive a lockdown until next year, as rich as you believe you are. The citizens will start having severe issues with dealing with such strict restrictions. I can also see the more powerful countries starting more conflicts for resources around the world and the struggle for influence in regions all over the globe will intensify.
Have visualisations gone too far?
This was made by a psychopath.
Tom Britton from Stockholm Uni uses it and they collaborate. Still up for that bet
To be fair, they asked the FHM experts here after a press conference about a Trump comment regarding Sweden’s approach and the reply was along the lines of:
“Our approach is designed specifically for Sweden, why would anyone even consider how that could work in other vastly different countries and cultures. Each country must have their own strategy”.
Tom Britton from Stockholm Uni uses it and they collaborate. Still up for that bet
Tom might, but the model doesn’t, so you made it up. It’s rather amusing how you can try correcting the likes of Pogue for a few percent difference in a stat yet you’ve no problem replying with utter bullshit yourself.
The model is published, go look man. You’d probably enjoy it too being a maths bloke, it’s more than a little over my head I’m afraid.
“Let’s have a bet”, why is that your go to? aren’t you like 37 years old?
You seem to have some serious Sweden issues too man as you barely post in here if Sweden isn’t the subject, big brother Scandy issues? Gutted they are so close yet somehow ended up being so much better looking? I get it
man, I do, but being non-Scandy myself I’d prefer you leave me out of it and keep your demons to yourself, or focus them on an actual Swede.
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I specifically said politicians, public figures and pseudo-scientist, by pseudo-scientist I'm talking about scientists that are willing to run their mouths at every opportunity as long as there is a camera around. You can make all the speculations that you want but public figures shouldn't. And since we are in the context of herd immunity, the mechanics of the immunity is key, even if you have immunity the consequences and its length need to be known and understood. You should dismiss anyone that makes definitive claims on a virus that no one knows.
As for the 10%, from the limited studies done in France it's supposed to be in that ball park for regions that have been heavily affected.
Government really going all out to meet the 100k testing target by end of tomorrow
Now all asymptomatic NHS and social care staff and patients in hospitals and care home residents eligible
Well overdue I think but with obvious implications for workplace and need to update guidance for asymptomatic staff regarding return to work and if/when to re-swab. Should also be interesting to see prevalence now and compare vs community figures to see if frontline workers have increased incidence especially amongst asymptomatic staff and whether with large enough samples we could extrapolate from that data and make local/national inferences.
I'll book mine soon but worried about how the swab itself looks pretty uncomfortable and false reassurance though as a study in JAMA showed true positive rate of 63% with nasal swabs
Now all asymptomatic NHS and social care staff and patients in hospitals and care home residents eligible
Well overdue I think but with obvious implications for workplace and need to update guidance for asymptomatic staff regarding return to work and if/when to re-swab. Should also be interesting to see prevalence now and compare vs community figures to see if frontline workers have increased incidence especially amongst asymptomatic staff and whether with large enough samples we could extrapolate from that data and make local/national inferences.
I'll book mine soon but worried about how the swab itself looks pretty uncomfortable and false reassurance though as a study in JAMA showed true positive rate of 63% with nasal swabs
Apparently cancer deaths are at an all time low, as are heart attacks.
Someone in canteen was just telling me. Think they said it was on Facebook like so you know. Apparently a lass from a morgue? Is saying all deaths where she works are covid 19, not one other type of death recorded at all.
Someone in canteen was just telling me. Think they said it was on Facebook like so you know. Apparently a lass from a morgue? Is saying all deaths where she works are covid 19, not one other type of death recorded at all.
I don't have any problem with Sweden, I think they have misscalculated a little bit. It is hard to take any calculations that implicitly or explicitly put the death rate at 0.3% when 0.25% of NYC's total population has already died. I haven't criticised Sweden's approach once, apart from maybe calling it risky. I have criticised many of your posts.
I am a poker player, so I am used to take peoples money, can you blame me for trying.
Mildly uncomfortable for a second. Preferable to a blood test. Nowhere near as bad as it looks (had it done and seen the videos where it does look pretty excruciating)
Truly a beautiful advert by the BBC
Isn't that weird though? If the 'news' itself is an actual report, then it's complete bollocks, there's no way nobody is dying of other causes, so that would suggest that some areas are inflating covid19 death numbers by simply not looking into cause of death (which I strongly doubt). Maybe some areas aren't equipped to be performing all these tests so are just ticking the covid19 box due to volume of work/capacity.
If true.
The lady from the canteen heard on Facebook...
What an absolute waste of time.
She's also confirmed that United are in talks with Sancho
This isn't the thread for Boris baby chat.
