SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Here's testing eligibility for England: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-getting-tested

Here's stay at home guidance; https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...-with-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection

Essentially you are just expected to isolate, self care and not get tested, unless you have a particular need for a test or your symptoms get worse:



For the love of God though, don't just rock up to a hospital or GP surgery unannounced. You shouldn't do that with any viral fever, let alone COVID-19. You could literally kill people.
Its different in America, daines
 
GOP Ohio state lawmaker refuses to wear face mask because faces are the 'likeness of God'

A Republican Ohio state representative cited his religious beliefs to explain why he would not wear a mask as recommended by Gov. Mike DeWine (R) to help limit the spread of the novel coronavirus.

“This is not the entire world,” state Rep. Nino Vitale wrote in a lengthy Facebook post on Monday morning. “This is the greatest nation on earth founded on Judeo-Christian Principles.”

“One of those principles is that we are all created in the image and likeness of God. That image is seen the most by our face. I will not wear a mask,” he continued.


 
This video is good to help people understand graphs




4F96R6S.png


Linear scale
 
You can go even more detailed than that. It's now thought the Atalanta v Valencia game on 19th February is the spark that created the storm in Italy and Spain. Bergamo (Atalanta's hometown) is a big Milan commuter town and quickly became the worst affected place in Europe after that, and the virus travelled back to Spain with the Valencia team and it's fans.

Same thing is speculated to have happened in Liverpool with the Madrid game.

I wonder if we can eventually trace back to specific events in those other cities.

How many Valencia fans were there for the San Siro leg? And was/is Valencia (the town) disproportionately affected versus other towns / regions in Spain?

Same questions could be asked about Liverpool I suppose.

And why Bergamo hit so hard in the first place, is it a town that has a lot of traffic with Wuhan?
 
Holy shit, they cannot be this stupid. This is just so fundamentally dishonest it's terrifying:

 
Holy shit, they cannot be this stupid. This is just so fundamentally dishonest it's terrifying:


Wouldn’t a cubic fit go below zero in a few weeks? Negative deaths?

is there ANY legitimate reason for using this model (so not “it makes us look good” or “the last trend was down so it’s going down”)?

why did the colour change and the line change from dashes to dots?
 
I don’t know if it’s news, but it is peer-reviewed proof on things we suspected. Because of data studied in samples worldwide, they confirmed it not have jumped to humans earlier than late last year. So the hope that some strain was floating around for longer and many more people have been exposed than suspected is gone. No true anecdotes about a weird flu that some guy had in October or something then.

But it was in Europe, America, and other places earlier than expected, and the first actual cases were earlier than what has been confirmed. Though finding ‘patient zero’ in these areas would be a fruitless endeavor.

CNN
 
Wouldn’t a cubic fit go below zero in a few weeks? Negative deaths?

is there ANY legitimate reason for using this model (so not “it makes us look good” or “the last trend was down so it’s going down”)?

why did the colour change and the line change from dashes to dots?

Yeah, it would, or went to negative deaths at some point in the past eg:



It's transparent curve fitting in order to get the outcome you want. Has no predictive power whatsoever. We know it's wrong from the single datapoint we received yesterday lifting deaths back up to 2.4k. We know the historical IHME model is wrong because their predictions for deaths by August change every update only to once again be overtaken by reality within a week or two. Yet these are the predictions the US government chooses to go with to make policy decisions? They can't be that stupid.

The US government is making policy decisions first, then picking a graph to fit that policy second.

Edit: No idea why it goes to dots, but the idea that the US could be approaching zero deaths a day by the 16th of this month is spectacularly dumb.
 
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https://apnews.com/bf685dcf52125be54e030834ab7062a8

Apparently it seems to get confirmed what many people already suspected in late January/early February
If only they had any sort of credibility left. (I am not saying the allegations aren't true, but that those raising the allegations have other reasons for doing so than thinking the alleged is really culpibable of anything substantial)
 
I flew through Paris for Christmas vacation and got terribly sick with breathing trouble and dry cough. Now I don't know what to think considering France apparently found a case predating that. Breathing issues aren't uncommon to me though, I have trouble when I go from low pollution areas to high pollution and I chalked it to that. I was also hugging and kissing my family and friends over the holidays and none of them got anything.
 
If only they had any sort of credibility left. (I am not saying the allegations aren't true, but that those raising the allegations have other reasons for doing so than thinking the alleged is really culpibable of anything substantial)

While I generally agree with that sentiment (which is why I used the word seems rather than a more absolute rhetoric), there have been enough observations and reports that it does seem rather credible.
We will see, if we get a proper investigation of if China tries to buy themselves out of it somehow. So far the EU doesn't seem too critical towards the Chinese government so I wouldn't put such shenanigans past them
 
I flew through Paris for Christmas vacation and got terribly sick with breathing trouble and dry cough. Now I don't know what to think considering France apparently found a case predating that. Breathing issues aren't uncommon to me though, I have trouble when I go from low pollution areas to high pollution and I chalked it to that. I was also hugging and kissing my family and friends over the holidays and none of them got anything.
I think there's probably quite a few of us thinking back to just before all of this kicked off and remembering having what we thought was a chest or throat infection which may have a been a mild case of the virus (which would now be a blessing).
 
I think there's probably quite a few of us thinking back to just before all of this kicked off and remembering having what we thought was a chest or throat infection which may have a been a mild case of the virus (which would now be a blessing).

Yeah my employer was offering antibody tests a couple of weeks ago so I was curious to find out but in the end decided to stay home thinking its not worth taking the public transit and risking the virus to get a test for the virus.
 
Honestly I know ALOT of people treating this as a big holiday whilst being paid. Defer your mortgage at the same time and some people are up financially in the short term (I’m ignoring interest added to the mortgage). I have to say I wish I was furloughed as working 5 days a week at home on my own absolutely sucks. Even more so when so many colleagues received 100% pay for the last two months as work guaranteed this before the furlough scheme was announced. And they can work else where if they really wanted to.

The scheme was ill thought out in my view but they had to do something before the nation panicked about their financial position. The next step is that self employed should only make a claim ‘if’ they have been unable to work during the last 3 months. Who exactly is going to turn down 3 months taxable profit? And who from HMRC is going to check if they also earnt money in these 3 months whilst making a claim? There will be so many people taking advantage of this scheme that is going to cause a colossal amount of national debt.
I really can't see how HMRC can just change the rules for the self-employed. There will be a huge uproar given that they have stated that self-employed people can make a claim and continue to trade.
 
How many Valencia fans were there for the San Siro leg? And was/is Valencia (the town) disproportionately affected versus other towns / regions in Spain?

Same questions could be asked about Liverpool I suppose.

And why Bergamo hit so hard in the first place, is it a town that has a lot of traffic with Wuhan?

I don't know too much about Spain's spread. A third of the Valencia team did catch it on that trip despite being totally isolated from the general public the whole time.

Bergamo was hit hard in large part due to that game. 40,000 fans all mixing together in Milan when many of them unknowingly had it, and then they all took it back home with them.
 
I flew through Paris for Christmas vacation and got terribly sick with breathing trouble and dry cough. Now I don't know what to think considering France apparently found a case predating that. Breathing issues aren't uncommon to me though, I have trouble when I go from low pollution areas to high pollution and I chalked it to that. I was also hugging and kissing my family and friends over the holidays and none of them got anything.
I think there's probably quite a few of us thinking back to just before all of this kicked off and remembering having what we thought was a chest or throat infection which may have a been a mild case of the virus (which would now be a blessing).

It’s natural to think that but that would ignore the fact that people catch a load of different viruses in December/January ever year and they haven’t gone away. With barely a handful of confirmed cases of covid in Europe at that time the odds are tens of thousands to one against any individual picking it up.
 
40 people aged 14 to 17 met up for mass brawl in Nuremberg yesterday. Among other things, they were hitting each other with iron bars.

Does this count as a Corona party? And good thing they used iron bars to ensure social distancing.
 
It’s natural to think that but that would ignore the fact that people catch a load of different viruses in December/January ever year and they haven’t gone away. With barely a handful of confirmed cases of covid in Europe at that time the odds are tens of thousands to one against any individual picking it up.

And the vast majority of people tested during what is considered a peak have been negative even though those people were for a large part filtered and needed more than one matching symptom to be tested.
 
5 confirmed new cases today, 1 up from yesterday from combined of 13k tests. All outbreaks are isolated (care homes and hospital), anyone who had a contact with the patients are on self isolation. Lockdown ends on 11th of May but some of the measures will be kept in place for much longer, including no mass gatherings, concerts, indoor restaurants/cafes, etc. for another few months I would guess.

Also:
Vilnius to become a huge outdoor café to beat social distancing restrictions

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-bar-social-distancing-lockdown-a9488576.html
 
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That's hardly news is it? As Germany are opening up society, their disease control and prevention unit were much more explicit about it yesterday:
“We know with great certainty that there will be a second wave — the majority of scientists are sure of that. And many also assume that there will be a third wave,” said Lothar Wieler, the head of Germany’s national disease control center.

"This is a pandemic," he told reporters in Berlin. "And in a pandemic, this virus will cause disease until 60 to 70% of the population is infected."
 
And the vast majority of people tested during what is considered a peak have been negative even though those people were for a large part filtered and needed more than one matching symptom to be tested.

Exactly. Thinking about it, millions to one would probably be more accurate odds. Won’t stop people thinking/hoping they’ve got the winning covid lottery ticket though. That’s human nature.
 


This is a bit misleading. The aim of lockdowns and reopenings is not to stop transmission totally, it is to keep it under the limits of healthcare capacity. That applies anywhere in the world and everybody accepts there will be a second wave.
 
That's hardly news is it? As Germany are opening up society, their disease control and prevention unit were much more explicit about it yesterday:

The same thing is said in France, the country is partially reopening May 11th and the PM warned that the risk of a second wave was serious.
 
On the last paragraph hmrc are going to come down hard on all this. Any business that has claimed furlough or claimed the self employed check will be investigated.

They'll check billable hours, invoices, phone bills, electric bills etc etc to claw as much back as possible.

I know businesses claiming furlough that are still working in an office and hmrc will nail them easily when they get investigated.

This just isn't going to happen. HMRC do not have the resources to investigate the volume of businesses who are making claims. There is nearly a quarter of the population on furlough.
 
I really can't see how HMRC can just change the rules for the self-employed. There will be a huge uproar given that they have stated that self-employed people can make a claim and continue to trade.

That is not what they have said. If your income has been affected by the coronavirus then you can make a claim for loss of earnings, it's not in addition to what you can earn. And this is the problem lots of people are seeing this as free money, in a lump sum potentially of £7,500. As I said the scheme was poorly designed.
 
I really can't see how HMRC can just change the rules for the self-employed. There will be a huge uproar given that they have stated that self-employed people can make a claim and continue to trade.

Self employed cannot furlough themselves and continue to trade . Ive furloughed and categorically i must not do anything other than the legal minimum from a paperwork point of view . I cannot prospect for work , undertake any work or invoice for any work .
 
5 confirmed new cases today, 1 up from yesterday from combined of 13k tests. All outbreaks are isolated (care homes and hospital), anyone who had a contact with the patients are on self isolation. Lockdown ends on 11th of May but some of the measures will be kept in place for much longer, including no mass gatherings, concerts, indoor restaurants/cafes, etc. for another few months I would guess.

Also:
Vilnius to become a huge outdoor café to beat social distancing restrictions

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-bar-social-distancing-lockdown-a9488576.html

That's great. I was actually planning to visit Vilnius last August. It was between Vilnius and Riga but decided for Riga in the end because of flight times/prices (don't remember) but it's still on the list. It's been recommended to me by few people.
 
If the UK has the highest rate in europe, with the economy gone to shit with 2 months of lockdown, whats the point, all it shows is either lockdown isnt the right solution, or else it was done too late.
Personallly I find all the world locking their countries up, shows the power the governemtn has over controlling people in the future, and this is a large and succesful test, that didnt even require much of a military prescence to implement

Along with the scaremongering that has people walking on the road to avoid walking past people on the footpath, shows how terrified and easy it is to cause mass anxiety and fear in a general populace

Im not saying this covid is a hoax, but its at the same time a great way for government to experiment how easy it is to control their populations. Also I dont agree with this mass lockdown.

Just seen an article Sweden and one other scndinavian country were compared, sweden are not doing a lockdown, and other cuntry was, and both have a similiar R rate.

Plus there is no scientific evidence that a lockdown is beficial, everyone is doing it just because other countries did it, no one has any idea what they are doing with corona, theyre just making it up as they go along, and sadly this will have severe economic and unemployment repercussions on the general populace

I somewhat agree. Scientifically speaking I know very little about the whole thing, but in my opinion a lockdown just for the sake of locking down is pointless. It's only effective when coupled with an aggressive testing, tracking and isolating regime, in other words the enemy needs to be made visible. As a matter of fact I don't necessarily feel you need a lockdown if you go gung-ho on those three aspects (as shown by Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea), but this is hard.

That said, Western Europe and Northeastern US were pretty much screwed and were always going to play catch-up, lockdown or no lockdown, by the time it spread around the end of February. There's little you can do when the virus has penetrated a large number of the populace.
 
That is not what they have said. If your income has been affected by the coronavirus then you can make a claim for loss of earnings, it's not in addition to what you can earn. And this is the problem lots of people are seeing this as free money, in a lump sum potentially of £7,500. As I said the scheme was poorly designed.
None of the sole traders and guys in the trades i work with have had a lump sum of 7500 @ Josep Dowling . Most of us are out of pocket big time , though all that i speak to are very accepting the system cannot protect everyone
 
This is a bit misleading. The aim of lockdowns and reopenings is not to stop transmission totally, it is to keep it under the limits of healthcare capacity. That applies anywhere in the world and everybody accepts there will be a second wave.
In this instance, they will be saying publicly that it’s not so bad and the rise in cases will mostly be due to improved testing. As some states are reopening before they’ve peaked, this is a dangerous mindset to encourage.
 
None of the sole traders and guys in the trades i work with have had a lump sum of 7500 @ Josep Dowling . Most of us are out of pocket big time , though all that i speak to are very accepting the system cannot protect everyone

Self employed people cannot make a claim yet - I can make claims for family members on 13th and 14th May.
 
There's some harrowing and not at all hyperbolic reads here from an ICU doctor at Charing Cross Hospital, read all 5 entries.
https://icudiary.com/covid-1/?fbclid=IwAR13h59TGHjKoHR_zaQFIT7HBWjiCnwfQh7dThtxFU-28AXJkv8T0fOCQjw

Incidentally in one of those entries the LUCAS machine which was just being trialled when I was working in CCU, this is what a resuscitation attempt looks like


Oh man. That diary. Reflects what I’m hearing from friends working in ITU in the uk but still manages to shock :(