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https://lbo-news.com/2020/05/09/measuring-the-carnage/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
About US unemployment numbers
About US unemployment numbers
1. That would make sense. It would further reinforce just how dismal our PPE strategy has been, given the likelihood that transmission has been a cycle of hospital to home and home to community.1. Most governments have said it. It's part of the reason why lockdown measures take 2-4 weeks to be reflected in case numbers - it takes that long to spread throughout a household. Countries that are on their way out of the peak i.e not the UK are saying the majority of transmission in the latter stages is healthcare workers taking it home with them.
2. Seemed you were buying into the argument that the lockdown will cost more lives than the virus. That's nowhere near true whilst the virus is killing people at the UK's current rate.
You’re bloviating over something you saw on Andrew Marr this morning.The quality of my writing is more than adequate. I can break down my message into smaller steps to make it more accessible for you, though. My mistake.
I believe that my premise that people are focused on the death toll is an accurate reflection. You disagree; that’s fine.
Personally, I think the suggestion that “most stopped paying attention weeks ago” is unequivocal nonsense.
Our media, understandably, refer to death tolls every day.
The government use the lowering of the number of daily deaths as part of their five-point plan to relax measures.
I believe it is time for the government to educate the public about the risk to the wider public, specific to age group, to ease the widespread anxiety. Tell us about the science we hear so much about. Adapt the messaging if and when the science changes.
I think there is a larger discussion than daily deaths. The public isn’t being prepared for that, particularly the disadvantaged that will be plunged further into poverty. I care greatly about this.
Chapeau!
Careless. Talks. Costs Lives.
Seven tonight.What time is boris discussing the lockdown
The scientist on Marr made many good points that I agreed with. I suggested people listen to the interview.You’re bloviating over something you saw on Andrew Marr this morning.
You decided someone was clever, and extrapolated your new piece of information as a framework to say people don’t already know these things.
I’m saying : The public just wants the best and safest version of normal, as soon as possible.
Every single person I know, sees this as something we will learn to live with, before we ever eradicate or vaccinate against.
You’ve picked an odd point of position that doesn’t seem to exist.
Vulnerable members of society need to be insulated. Less vulnerable members need to be protected. If they feel protected, they’ll get themselves back to work.
Perhaps my views aren’t well thought out either. I’m not a politician, or a scientist, and I won’t pretend for a second that I truly understand the complexity of this situation. Good luck to you in writing your plan, however.I could write that plan right now.
Not because I’m brighter than everyone in Boris’ cabinet, though that’s probably the case....
But because I’d just cherry pick from the rest of the world.
It’s half a days work for one person to lash something together that would leave the UK in better shape.
Hard to tell if it's some colleagues briefing against Johnson or his side formulating policy by testing public/media reaction to leaks again.
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Looks like he's being set up as the fall guy here. Hancock might have fecked up but at least he came out to face the press whilst the rest of them ran for cover.Tweet
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I listened to what David Spiegelhalter, I agreed with a lot of it. Especially the part of number theatrics. Interestingly I note that statisticians get a lot of coverage but not a lot of them are working with patients, wonder what the opinions of emergency medics, anaesthetists, ITU consultants would be on what's going to happen from tomorrow onwards after this evening's announcementA lot of people in this country are going to be absolutely fecked, for want of a better phrase. It’s why I cringe, somewhat, when I read messages, tweets and other comments that appear to embrace the ongoing lockdown. Really, it’s a middle class luxury for many. For the disadvantaged, it’s potentially a death sentence.
I guess in addition to that, Raab has done a fantastic job at coming out and not answering every question he's been asked.Looks like he's being set up as the fall guy here. Hancock might have fecked up but at least he came out to face the press whilst the rest of them ran for cover.
They certainly hope so.Would a government slogan really affect someone in any way whatsoever?
I don’t have time for an economic lesson and it’s quite complicated.What money is running out exactly?
In my view yes.If newspaper sales plummet then the spread of news is suppressed. Is that a good thing?
I understand that newspapers are under the umbrella of media corporations, that are owned by a handful of self-interested billionaires. I think the alternative is a lot worse, sadly.
You could see Hancock would be made a scapegoat a mile off.Tweet
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They hate us.
Yes, but with the caveat that this explanation underplayed the ideological agenda of many titles. An arrogance that as the 'voice of the people's they should be a driving force of policy etc...In my view yes.
The majority of the more 'popular' paper's are full of made up news and sensational headlines.
They are only about circulation and anything they can do to sell a few more copies is all they care about.
Not sure how that would suppress news when by definition, their so called news is always way out of date.
Save your money and spend it on something useful.
Pardon my ignorance but Germany are fully equipped to handle a large increase in hospitalised patients with a reasonable survival rate, right? Plus, warnings are in place for at risk people to stay at home and stay safe from family members going out?Tweet
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They are but how large an increase is the question. When Merkel talked about it a month ago she said a reproduction rate of 1.1 - which they're at now - would overwhelm their system by October. At 1.3 it would be overwhelmed by June. She explained it pretty plainly here.Pardon my ignorance but Germany are fully equipped to handle a large increase in hospitalised patients with a reasonable survival rate, right? Plus, warnings are in place for at risk people to stay at home and stay safe from family members going out?
Does this not mean that herd immunity is in play in a controlled manner?
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If you think they're bad wait until we live in a world of unaccountable clickbait 'news' websites.If media outlets are concerned that newspaper sales will plummet as a result of Covid-19, then they have clearly had their heads under a rock for the last 10-15 years.
With or without the pandemic, their industry would be dead in the next 5-10 years anyway. Clutching at straws against the inevitable tide. A world without tabloid papers? Good fecking riddance.
Fair enough, thanks for the detailed explanation.They are but how large an increase is the question. When Merkel talked about it a month ago she said a reproduction rate of 1.1 - which they're at now - would overwhelm their system by October. At 1.3 it would be overwhelmed by June. She explained it pretty plainly here.
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Their understanding of the situation has evolved since then and I suspect their model predicts less drastic outcomes at this stage, but it isn't the case that they can just let the consistently R0 increase because they've got such a healthy healthcare system.
They've got thresholds to control things, so if more 50 cases per 100,000 people appear then restrictions are reimposed at a local level. The places where they've passed the thresholds still seem to be triggered by large numbers indoors for sustained periods - meat packing plants and care homes - but the general increase in the R0 is a broader issue.
Ultimately every country has said that a) the lockdown relaxation is conditional, so if thresholds are broken then there is always the possibility of restrictions being reimposed and b) we don't have very good information on what individual effect each restriction has. So it is entirely expected that the R0 will increase as the lockdown is relaxed and they should get a better idea of what impact each restriction has, and likely reconfigure the set of restrictions as the evidence comes in. Part of what factors into that is adherence to certain relaxations e.g. so far people have been more likely to abuse the public protest crowd limits than some of the other restrictions.
Nah, it means "do whatever you want" in the hopes that people will take it upon themselves to go out more and shop, party etc. But when it ultimately results in a resurgence of cases and people turn to the government and blame them they can say "oh but we were still telling people to stay at home".So stay alert equals stay at home.What a waste.
Gerronwivit!We can't stay in hiding forever ever. The economy will cost more life's than this virus. Look at the unemployment figures in the USA. People's livelihoods are being savaged. It isn't going to go away anytime soon is it? We need to just get on with it now.
Are these new slogans from the government?We can't stay in hiding forever ever. The economy will cost more life's than this virus. Look at the unemployment figures in the USA. People's livelihoods are being savaged. It isn't going to go away anytime soon is it? We need to just get on with it now.
So we should just stay in scared to death?Are these new slogans from the government?
This view assumes the world will be the same. It's not going to be. It's time the "lets get back to work" crew recognised the fact that that world is gone.We can't stay in hiding forever ever. The economy will cost more life's than this virus. Look at the unemployment figures in the USA. People's livelihoods are being savaged. It isn't going to go away anytime soon is it? We need to just get on with it now.
This is where a good testing system should be in place so someone like yourself and the general close proximity neighbours can find out if they have itJust saw my neighbour loaded up in a body bag into a van full of other sealed bodies by police and ambulance in full on biohazard PPE... What time tonight does Boris tell us everything is fine?
Obviously there has to be certain measures in place. Lets not get all hysterical and say the world is gone though. Its survived before this and it will after this.This view assumes the world will be the same. It's not going to be. It's time the "lets get back to work" crew recognised the fact that that world is gone.
Fecking hell. Where’s this?Just saw my neighbour loaded up in a body bag into a van full of other sealed bodies by police and ambulance in full on biohazard PPE... What time tonight does Boris tell us everything is fine?