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The worldwide outlook (with a few exceptions) is looking a bit better these days isn't it. Beginning to feel better and less anxious already.
Except on March 13th he was more than happy to say herd immunity was his strategy of choice. I appreciate that the clip has most likely been edited to his detriment, but even still, it's not a good look for him.I can see his difficulty. When random people start using well defined technical terms that they clearly don't understand, it can be difficult to respond fluently.
Also, from the way she's referring to herd immunity, the framing of the question is similar to "so did you stop beating your wife?". Impossible to answer with a straightforward yes or no without falling into a trap.
Two meter stick though, please.
He said herd immunity is how this gets under control, which is one of 2 possible outcomes, the other being eradication of the virus, which is unlikely. So either you achieve herd immunity through a vaccine (hopeful but not even close to guaranteed) or through the virus spreading to everyone (grim).Except on March 13th he was more than happy to say herd immunity was his strategy of choice. I appreciate that the clip has most likely been edited to his detriment, but even still, it's not a good look for him.
That's got to be better than seeing the 10 album covers that inspired them for the millionth timeAll I’ve seen today on Facebook is people talking about having “social distancing” picnics with their parents and families.
That's got to be better than seeing the 10 album covers that inspired them for the millionth time
https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/d...England-vs.-Europe-and-the-COVID-pandemic.pdfOf the 24 countries or regions covered, England had the highest peak weekly excess mortality in total, and also for the most vulnerable age group (the over-65s), and, strikingly, for the 15-64 age group. For the last group, which should be less at risk, the relative record for England is nearly 3 times worse than the next worst- ranked country, Spain (German data suggest mortality well within the normal range). While different reasons for England’s divergent pattern are explored, more research is urgently needed.
Just to be pedantic, herd immunity is the same thing as eradicating the virus. Just takes a long time to achieve. If/when we get herd immunity that’s the end of the virus. That’s what we did with smallpox.He said herd immunity is how this gets under control, which is one of 2 possible outcomes, the other being eradication of the virus, which is unlikely. So either you achieve herd immunity through a vaccine (hopeful but not even close to guaranteed) or through the virus spreading to everyone (grim).
I think the more revealing thing is the fact they didn't really think a lockdown would be accepted by society, so mitigation was preferred over suppression almost by default. Sounds a lot like the behavioural scientists persuaded them that a lockdown was hardly a viable option.I can see his difficulty. When random people start using well defined technical terms that they clearly don't understand, it can be difficult to respond fluently.
Also, from the way she's referring to herd immunity, the framing of the question is similar to "so did you stop beating your wife?". Impossible to answer with a straightforward yes or no without falling into a trap.
The interview with this guy can be found here: https://www.channel4.com/news/it-wa...ople-would-go-along-with-it-prof-john-edmundsTweet
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This might be unfair on the erstwhile academic, but feck me, we're well and truly fecked.
Are you sure? We can have herd immunity, but also the virus to still circulate (essentially being endemic). Herd immunity which will eradicate the virus can happen only if having the virus means that you cannot get infected from it in the future (which is extremely unlikely).Just to be pedantic, herd immunity is the same thing as eradicating the virus. Just takes a long time to achieve. If/when we get herd immunity that’s the end of the virus. That’s what we did with smallpox.
There’s a 3rd outcome. The virus becomes endemic and we have to live with it, indefinitely. In this scenario it will likely become less and less dangerous as the virus and our immune system evolve together to make it less lethal. If I was a betting man, this would be the one I’d put money on.
I don’t think you need permanent immunity for herd immunity to eradicate the virus. Just a year or two would probably do it. Which is possible, based on SARS/MERS, right? Could be wrong though. The fact measles is still hanging round works against this theory!Are you sure? We can have herd immunity, but also the virus to still circulate (essentially being endemic). Herd immunity which will eradicate the virus can happen only if having the virus means that you cannot get infected from it in the future (which is extremely unlikely).
Totally agree with your last paragraph. It is almost sure that the virus is gonna become endemic. Hopefully a good vaccine will make most people immune from it, and good anti-virals will give some protection to the remaining, but I think that likely this is gonna become another seasonal 'flu' (despite not being caused from influenza viruses).
You might be right. If let's say 85% of the world gets infected, then the virus will just die cause there won't be enough people for it to jump. And when those people will lose the immunity, the virus would be long gone.I don’t think you need permanent immunity for herd immunity to eradicate the virus. Just a year or two would probably do it. Which is possible, based on SARS/MERS, right? Could be wrong though. The fact measles is still hanging round works against this theory!
Good for you.Ventured out for the first time today after being in shielding, I'm still meant to be shielding but my mental health was starting to take its toll from not seeing the outdoors for 2 months.
Found a piece of countryside with no one around and had a 20 minute stroll, felt strange being outside again.
20-30% of colds are due to a few different coronaviruses. The main reason we haven't developed vaccines for them is cost benefit considerations. Drug companies would need to develop 4 vaccines to address on a small proportion of colds which would only really have a small benefit (and thus market).Isnt coronavirus the same as the common cold, its never going to be vaccinated. However hopefully the payload of Covid-19 maybe.
I'm not sure if it is a case of it being the wrong sort on monkey or mammal in general neccesarily rather than the inherant limitations of animal testing.The choice of animal model to use and frequency of dosing won’t be compulsory. That’s all part of the ‘art’ of drug development. The regulatory framework allows for a fair bit of autonomy. Getting those things wrong can set a project back years, or even kill it altogether.
Having said that, I’m not going to pretend to know more than the boffins developing this drug. I’m just not accepting the idea that results would be better if only they’d gone with a different type of monkey.
Yeah I'm back in now for the foreseeableGood for you.
Now get back in your foxhole soldier!
I think true herd immunity requires you to exceed HIT so as to reduce R to below 1. If you actually do this then eventually the virus will be functionally eradicated. Of course getting everywhere in the world above the HIT and below an R of 1 for the entire period of time required to eradicate is not at all easy.Are you sure? We can have herd immunity, but also the virus to still circulate (essentially being endemic). Herd immunity which will eradicate the virus can happen only if having the virus means that you cannot get infected from it in the future (which is extremely unlikely).
Totally agree with your last paragraph. It is almost sure that the virus is gonna become endemic. Hopefully a good vaccine will make most people immune from it, and good anti-virals will give some protection to the remaining, but I think that likely this is gonna become another seasonal 'flu' (despite not being caused from influenza viruses).
Yeah, that is the thing. When you consider the entire world (and that there is a likely chance that people might get reinfected within 1-3 years), then it is hard seeing herd immunity eradicating the virus. It is also the reason why no disease ever has been eradicated from herd immunity (smallpox was eradicated and measles eradicated in the Western world until its revival recently, but that was because of vaccines).I think true herd immunity requires you to exceed HIT so as to reduce R to below 1. If you actually do this then eventually the virus will be functionally eradicated. Of course getting everywhere in the world above the HIT and below an R of 1 for the entire period of time required to eradicate is not at all easy.
I agree. I was assuming the only way to get true herd immunity was with a vaccine. Even the it will be hard.Yeah, that is the thing. When you consider the entire world (and that there is a likely chance that people might get reinfected within 1-3 years), then it is hard seeing herd immunity eradicating the virus. It is also the reason why no disease ever has been eradicated from herd immunity (smallpox was eradicated and measles eradicated in the Western world until its revival recently, but that was because of vaccines).
What I think herd immunity is gonna achieve is to make the virus much less contagious (by the virtue of most people having caught it before), but it will still be endemic. In fact, even with a vaccine there is a high chance that it will still be endemic (considering that we likely need over 80% of people to both get vaccinated and for the vaccine to work on them).
Ruled by incompetentsI criticized the UK before when it comes to testing, but now they are doing an excellent job at it and putting most other countries to shame. They surpassed the US and Germany at tests per capital (despite being in a much worse position just a few weeks ago), and if they continue like this, they will surpass Italy and Spain soon.
The question is, why they did feck all for 2 months, if now they can do so many? Nevertheless, better later than never, and clearly, intensive testing will play an important part in opening the country safely. So credit where it's due.
Doomed once Trump thought they would work. He is the truth equivalent of antimatter.https://jamanetwork.com/journals/ja...uFMCDTinQ5oWpM1paHJlkYQ7dbEsJymuHCeS3-iWH_U3Q
TLDR: Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin do feck all.
TrueDoomed once Trump thought they would work. He is the truth equivalent of antimatter.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...king-hydroxychloroquine-covid-19-fda-warningsTrue
To be fair, there weren't many reasons to think it will work. It was created for malaria (so it isn't even an anti-viral), and both WHO and FDA did not have it on the fifty-something drugs they were putting in a clinical trial. Obviously, FDA had to backtrack after Trump's insane shilling and eventually put it on trials, but the hope was always low. Dr. Fauci (who might know a thing or two about viruses) was always extremely skeptical towards it, to the point that Fox presenters couldn't understand why he just cannot see that hydroxychloroquine is the solution.
Hope you haven't or if you have it's mild.I may have caught it. Will most likely find out between today or tomorrow.
Ouch, hope it all goes good.I may have caught it. Will most likely find out between today or tomorrow.
The crazy thing is that it wasn’t his own idea. It was Tucker Carlson (who has been desperate for the country to open since before it actually got closed) who mentioned it, and then Trump started tweeting about it. Obviously, considering that he must be never wrong, he then doubled (and tripled) down on it, to the point of becoming a meme.
You assume BoJo has the concentration levels to read and understand a whole tweet much less 5 of them. Details are for the hoi pulloi.Tweet
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