The situation in Belarus

[Hanks]

The convoy photos already turned out to be fake news confirmed by former Radio Svadba employee Franak Viacorka.

I think the worst thing that can be done for those protestors is to turn this into a West vs Russia thing. This isn’t anything like Maidan and there are no anti-Russian sentiments in the protests. Not to mention Russian state TV like Rossiya24 and Kanal1 regularly have been roasting Lukashenko and his police brutality over the last week. There are daily gatherings in front of Belarusembassy in Moscow by normal folks too.

Russia sit back quite as Armenian protestors made their president resign and then engaged with the replacement. Considering the existing distrust of Putin about Lukashenko and the fact that Opposition is not exactly anti-Russian, I don’t see why he would bet on an irrational actor (Luka) and possibly lose so much both internally and internationally.

If somehow this turns into a geopolitical game of West v Russia and ready made offers for Belarus to join NATO tomorrow, then of course Russia will intervene. So for protestors sake and future of Belarus, I hope external actors don’t hijack this natural movement. Luka is already very shaky and he was embarrassed yesterday. More strikes and he will have to give in. Him being booed yesterday reminded me of Ceasescu 1989 speech....Luka lookEd very worried about his security and that of his family. Give him a dacha in Irkutsk or somewhere in Qatar (his sons go there a lot), and we will have a peaceful transition imo.

 

[harms]

The convoy photos already turned out to be fake news confirmed by former Radio Svadba employee Franak Viacorka.

I thought that it was a complete wind up for a second, but I have a feeling that someone mixed up the names. Radio Svadba translates as “the wedding radio”.

 

[harms]

Not to mention Russian state TV like Rossiya24 and Kanal1 regularly have been roasting Lukashenko and his police brutality over the last week. There are daily gatherings in front of Belarusembassy in Moscow by normal folks too.

They were not. Most of the reporters defended Belarus police actions from the start aside from a few reactioners like Soloviev. But the criticism that actually happened on Russian TV pretty much stopped after they gave back 33 mysterious soldiers that were detained earlier. Russian police also destroyed flowers etc. that were left at the Belarus embassy. A few football fans were detained from the stadium for shouting “Zhive Belarus” after a Belarusian player scored a goal.

 

[harms]

Luka is already very shaky and he was embarrassed yesterday. More strikes and he will have to give in. Him being booed yesterday reminded me of Ceasescu 1989 speech....Luka lookEd very worried about his security and that of his family. Give him a dacha in Irkutsk or somewhere in Qatar (his sons go there a lot), and we will have a peaceful transition imo.

Sorry for multiple replies, but he had literally said that they will have to kill him to get another election yesterday. And I doubt that Belarusian people will be okay with him simply leaving after what he did to them during the last few weeks.

 

[Hanks]

I thought that it was a complete wind up for a second, but I have a feeling that someone mixed up the names. Radio Svadba translates as “the wedding radio”.

Svabodna .... sorry typing from phone

 

[Hanks]

Sorry for multiple replies, but he had literally said that they will have to kill him to get another election yesterday. And I doubt that Belarusian people will be okay with him simply leaving after what he did to them during the last few weeks.

ah, I watched on Monday, Tuesday AndWed...not sure if the coverage changed since the Wagner exchange and phone calls.

point remains, I just don’t see Luka as indispensable to Putin as Assad or Yanukovic (importance of naval fleet + maidan protests had very anti RUSSIAN sentiments that so far has been non existent in Belarus) before. I think intervening in Belarus Against visibly peaceful protestors will hit his already falling approval rating at home, unlike Maidan which gave him a super boost.

 

[Walrus]

There is nothing the EU can do here. It is neither a member state, nor a NATO ally . It is a country firmly within Russia's sphere of influence.

So just because the Belarussian government is closer to Russia than the west, the entire population should suffer?

I dont know what will and wont happen, but the idea that all of Europe should just sit by and watch millions of people protesting, and do nothing whilst Russia comes in to put them down.... that just doesnt sit right.

 

[The Firestarter]

So just because the Belarussian government is closer to Russia than the west, the entire population should suffer?

I dont know what will and wont happen, but the idea that all of Europe should just sit by and watch millions of people protesting, and do nothing whilst Russia comes in to put them down.... that just doesnt sit right.

Yes, the world is not a fair place. Out of curiosity, what do you think the EU should do, except run their mouths which they are already doing?

 

[Hanks]

Harms I think you are right, but at first I didn’t take it too literally. A few belarussians I know here in Wroclaw call him a joker/comedian... but with this attached tweet, Luka definitely seems to be escalating and begging the protestors to throw a first punch.
This more than ever is when Svetlana got to show her leadership.

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[Cheimoon]

ah, I watched on Monday, Tuesday AndWed...not sure if the coverage changed since the Wagner exchange and phone calls.

point remains, I just don’t see Luka as indispensable to Putin as Assad or Yanukovic (importance of naval fleet + maidan protests had very anti RUSSIAN sentiments that so far has been non existent in Belarus) before. I think intervening in Belarus Against visibly peaceful protestors will hit his already falling approval rating at home, unlike Maidan which gave him a super boost.

This is also what I was reading in my newspaper today. Putin doesn't particularly like Lukashenko all that much and there might not be popular support in Russia for another invasion abroad while the Russian economy is doing poorly. So the Armenian scenario would be Belarus's best best right now: the opposition tells Putin that he has nothing to fear from them as they won't turn towards the west, and then they keeping eroding Lukashenko's power. But @harms is right that any kind of relatively peaceful transition does not look likely right now...

 

[harms]

This more than ever is when Svetlana got to show her leadership.

No offense to her, but I doubt that she has any leadership skills whatsoever. People weren't voting for her – they were voting against Lukashenko, for her husband, for Babariko etc. This is not to say that I blame her for this, I'm not sure how I would've reacted in a situation like this, but she had asked on video to stop protesting and left the country the next day after the election. It's clear that her family was threatened, but still, this is not a behaviour of a revolutionary leader (again, nothing against her personally, threatening kids has to be the lowest form of any threat). She also never planned on serving the term – her program was to 1) get elected 2) free political prisoners 3) proceed with another, fair election, with all of the main candidates released and given a proper chance.

The current protests are very much decentralised and leaderless – the only kinda leaders are the admins of Telegram channels like Nexta.

 

[maniak]

Yes, the world is not a fair place. Out of curiosity, what do you think the EU should do, except run their mouths which they are already doing?

Offer political asylum to all belarusians who wish to leave their dictatorship would be a nice start.

 

[The Firestarter]

Offer political asylum to all belarusians who wish to leave their dictatorship would be a nice start.

That may still happen, it's too early in the crisis.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[Cheimoon]

Not good. Looks like Lukashenko is currently only looking in the direction of more violence. But it's been going up and down, so let's see what's next.

@harms, I see Lukashenko continues to push the narrative that NATO is at Belarus's borders and wants to get involved. Is that gaining any traction in Russia? I worry it might be a pretext for Putin to get physically involved, in one way or another. (I read that Russian state media personnel is already replacing Belarusians on strike, but that's not very consequential, I suppose.)

 

[The Firestarter]

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I believe the other dictator club members that used to do these stunts didn't end in a particularly pleasant way.

 

[JPRouve]

Offer political asylum to all belarusians who wish to leave their dictatorship would be a nice start.

That's not a EU decision, the EU isn't a country. If a belarusian seeks political asylum the country he wants to join is the one that will decide whether he fits the criteria established by that country.

 

[VidaRed]

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I can see trump doing the same after he loses the election and claims it is all a big fraud.

 

[Cheimoon]

That's not a EU decision, the EU isn't a country. If a belarusian seeks political asylum the country he wants to join is the one that will decide whether he fits the criteria established by that country.

Seems that Lithuania is anyway already accepting fugitive activists. That's an EU country; not sure what a statement would add at this point.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

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It's no good holding it like that!

 

[Rajma]

Proud to have been part of it yesterday, the chain of 60k people from Vilnius right to the border with belarus, amazing atmosphere with a immense column of around 2000 bikers turning up. Hopefully, people on the other side of the border could feel the love and solidarity in these turbulent times for them.

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[calodo2003]

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No magazine. He looks like the Karen & Ken couple that are speaking tonight.

 

[Hammerfell]

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Isn't this kind of stunt usually the beginning of the end of weird dictators?

 

[Cheimoon]

Proud to have been part of it yesterday, the chain of 60k people from Vilnius right to the border with belarus, amazing atmosphere with a immense column of around 2000 bikers turning up. Hopefully, people on the other side of the border could feel the love and solidarity in these turbulent times for them.

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That's great.

It's no good holding it like that!

Former armer: holding it like a spade. (Not that I know any better.) To be fair though, he wasn't going to have to use it around his helicopter.

 

[Paxi]

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[harms]

Putin has stated that he has formed a special reserve of police forces to “help out” Belarus for if/when “the extremist forces” are going to “cross the line”. I’m a bit surprised that it has taken him so long to be fair.

 

[The Firestarter]

Putin has stated that he has formed a special reserve of police forces to “help out” Belarus for if/when “the extremist forces” are going to “cross the line”. I’m a bit surprised that it has taken him so long to be fair.

They needed to dust up the green uniforms.

 

[FireballXL5]

Dominic Raab is very concerned about the situation in Belarus...

Belarus: Journalists covering protests stripped of accreditation

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53924922


Which kind of begs the question, why are the British training their fecking military?

UK 'providing training for repressive regimes', claims campaign group

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53947698


Business as usual.

 

[harms]

A lot of people came today to Lukashenko's residence in Minsk to congratulate him on his birthday.

 

[The Firestarter]

A lot of people came today to Lukashenko's residence in Minsk to congratulate him on his birthday.

What's the estimated crowd size? Looks huge.

 

[harms]

What's the estimated crowd size? Looks huge.

I haven't seen an estimate yet, but from the videos it looks very impressive, I wouldn't be surprised if it's around 100k (or, at least, close). It's not a very dense crowd though, which makes it even harder to assess a real number. There's also a huge crowd in a different meeting spot at Minsk (as well as all over the country), so an overall number is certainly huge.

 

[Cheimoon]

Great that this keeps going while things otherwise seem to be at a bit of standstill (from what I can tell). Is Lukashenko's latest plan to see if this disappears if he simply waits long enough?

 

[harms]

Great that this keeps going while things otherwise seem to be at a bit of standstill (from what I can tell). Is Lukashenko's latest plan to see if this disappears if he simply waits long enough?

He has patched things up with Putin (during the election he alienated himself from Russia and even spoke about the threat to Belarus sovereignty that comes from the East), who has given him $1bn (or, rather, “refinanced” an earlier loan) and promised help if the “destructive elements” will become aggressive, start fighting police, try to take control of administrative buildings, banks etc.

So, most likely, he’ll try to trade Belarus’ sovereignty (in full or partially) in exchange for protection from Russia, but even in this highly unrealistic scenario it’s hard to see him winning. It’ll require pretty much a full-on invasion at this point.

Maybe he’s waiting for something else, who knows. He never was the cleverest man around and I doubt that he has a realistic plan of getting out of this mess. He’s not going to win the country back after people saw that literally pretty much everyone wants him gone and are willing to say it out loud. I think he’ll either run to Russia or the Middle East (apparently he keeps most of his money there and not in Europe) or wait long enough to see his generals turning their back on him and, eventually, get a huge prison sentence for everything that he had managed to do this month (it’s only been 22 days! Feels like eternity).

 

[Cheimoon]

He has patched things up with Putin (during the election he alienated himself from Russia and even spoke about the threat to Belarus sovereignty that comes from the East), who has given him $1bn (or, rather, “refinanced” an earlier loan) and promised help if the “destructive elements” will become aggressive, start fighting police, try to take control of administrative buildings, banks etc.

So, most likely, he’ll try to trade Belarus’ sovereignty (in full or partially) in exchange for protection from Russia, but even in this highly unrealistic scenario it’s hard to see him winning. It’ll require pretty much a full-on invasion at this point.

Maybe he’s waiting for something else, who knows. He never was the cleverest man around and I doubt that he has a realistic plan of getting out of this mess. He’s not going to win the country back after people saw that literally pretty much everyone wants him gone and are willing to say it out loud. I think he’ll either run to Russia or the Middle East (apparently he keeps most of his money there and not in Europe) or wait long enough to see his generals turning their back on him and, eventually, get a huge prison sentence for everything that he had managed to do this month (it’s only been 22 days! Feels like eternity).

Thanks for the update!

Yeah, my impression (from very far away) has been that Lukashenko doesn't really know what to do and keeps trying different things. I guess this would-be deal with Putin is most concrete, but it had all the disadvantages that you list. The ideal way forward now is probably the Armenia scenario: the opposition makes it clear to Putin that Lukashenko's removal won't turn Belarus towards the West, and Putin then tells Lukashenko not to count on Russian help. I think the game would be up for Lukashenko fairly quickly in that case, but I suppose it's not actually quite that easy!

 

[Cheimoon]

My Dutch newspaper is reporting today that things are now seriously advancing towards a de facto annexation of Belarus by Russia. Russian PM Mishustin was in Minsk yesterday for a meeting with Lukashenko and commented afterwards that they 'booked a lot of progress, also concerning the creation of a future union state'. Lukashenko apparently has also been moving closer to Russia, emphasizing the common roots of the people of Belarus and Russia, speaking of a motherland stretching from Brest (in western Belarus) to Vladivostok, and bragging about Belarus providing intelligence to Russia.

The context here would be an agreement from 1999, signed by Lukashenko and Yeltsin, that promised the creation of a union with a common currency, court system, parliament, and security council. The agreement was never followed up on, but Putin started demanding its implementation last year. Lukashenko refused, leading Putin to stop delivering cheap energy to Belarus. If my news is reliable, it seems that all this is back on the table now, in an ultimate attempt for Lukashenko to save his position, even in downgraded form. Obviously, that would spell bad news for the protests.

Anyone have more news on that?

 

[harms]

It’s something that Lukashenko is probably counting on, but it’s hardly realistic. The annexation of Crimea happened because the majority of its population wanted to join Russia, it was always the case (although the procedure of that referendum was questionable to put it mildly). There’s not even a formidable movement inside Belarus that wants to join Russia, while the majority of the population is strongly against it.

So far the most realistic scenario that Lukashenko is pushing towards is a constitutional reform that would change the balance of power, giving more power to the government and overseeing new elections with Lukashenko keeping the president’s seat, but even that scenario, which was something that most would take before the post-election mess, is highly unlikely. I doubt that they’d even give him immunity.

 

[Cheimoon]

So far the most realistic scenario that Lukashenko is pushing towards is a constitutional reform that would change the balance of power, giving more power to the government and overseeing new elections with Lukashenko keeping the president’s seat, but even that scenario, which was something that most would take before the post-election mess, is highly unlikely. I doubt that they’d even give him immunity.

I wasn't aware this was still happening. Any recent developments on this front? It does seem like an unlikely scenario if Lukashenko is unwilling to give up the presidency and the protesters don't want to give him immunity.

 

[Foxbatt]

Lukashenko is a raving lunatic.

 

[Cheimoon]

Read that a few opposition leaders have been kidnapped: pulled into unmarked vans and no news afterwards. The police deny involvement.

 

[harms]

Yep, the highest-profile opposition leader that was still in Belarus and not yet imprisoned got kidnapped by unknown forces today right from the street.

the police had “initiated the search”.