The convoy photos already turned out to be fake news confirmed by former Radio Svadba employee Franak Viacorka.
I think the worst thing that can be done for those protestors is to turn this into a West vs Russia thing. This isn’t anything like Maidan and there are no anti-Russian sentiments in the protests. Not to mention Russian state TV like Rossiya24 and Kanal1 regularly have been roasting Lukashenko and his police brutality over the last week. There are daily gatherings in front of Belarusembassy in Moscow by normal folks too.
Russia sit back quite as Armenian protestors made their president resign and then engaged with the replacement. Considering the existing distrust of Putin about Lukashenko and the fact that Opposition is not exactly anti-Russian, I don’t see why he would bet on an irrational actor (Luka) and possibly lose so much both internally and internationally.
If somehow this turns into a geopolitical game of West v Russia and ready made offers for Belarus to join NATO tomorrow, then of course Russia will intervene. So for protestors sake and future of Belarus, I hope external actors don’t hijack this natural movement. Luka is already very shaky and he was embarrassed yesterday. More strikes and he will have to give in. Him being booed yesterday reminded me of Ceasescu 1989 speech....Luka lookEd very worried about his security and that of his family. Give him a dacha in Irkutsk or somewhere in Qatar (his sons go there a lot), and we will have a peaceful transition imo.
I think the worst thing that can be done for those protestors is to turn this into a West vs Russia thing. This isn’t anything like Maidan and there are no anti-Russian sentiments in the protests. Not to mention Russian state TV like Rossiya24 and Kanal1 regularly have been roasting Lukashenko and his police brutality over the last week. There are daily gatherings in front of Belarusembassy in Moscow by normal folks too.
Russia sit back quite as Armenian protestors made their president resign and then engaged with the replacement. Considering the existing distrust of Putin about Lukashenko and the fact that Opposition is not exactly anti-Russian, I don’t see why he would bet on an irrational actor (Luka) and possibly lose so much both internally and internationally.
If somehow this turns into a geopolitical game of West v Russia and ready made offers for Belarus to join NATO tomorrow, then of course Russia will intervene. So for protestors sake and future of Belarus, I hope external actors don’t hijack this natural movement. Luka is already very shaky and he was embarrassed yesterday. More strikes and he will have to give in. Him being booed yesterday reminded me of Ceasescu 1989 speech....Luka lookEd very worried about his security and that of his family. Give him a dacha in Irkutsk or somewhere in Qatar (his sons go there a lot), and we will have a peaceful transition imo.