SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[SiRed]

How far away do you think we are from Boris just saying ''Right everyone, i am not going to force restrictions on you now. You are all adults, and here are the risks. Over to you.''

Also as i understand the track and trace system it is pointless in its current form. I have not used it, as i dont see any benefit at all in knowing if i have been near someone who has tested positive..... If i know this, i am forced to isolate. If i am unaware i don't have to isolate. Ignorance is bliss and all. Or am i wrong here?

AND if it tells me i have been near somebody who has tested positive - should that person not be prosecuted for being out and about after a positive test?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I didn't say ONS was flawed. It was separate paragraph to illustrate I was talking about surveillance report. I could have indeed made it more obvious.

I am still unsure which table or figure that 30k is coming from.

If practicalities dictate that it is impossible to close school just for over 13 years old (or 14/15/16 where ever one wants to put the line) then so be it. I don't have capabilities to comment on it. But the distinction between age groups should be made when others are having that conversation.

I wonder if the young kids are not turning up in the positive test numbers because they’re much less likely to be symptomatic? Which in turn raises the possibility that they’re silent spreaders. So many unknowns still, even as we close in on 12 months living with this virus

 

[massi83]

I wonder if the young kids are not turning up in the positive test numbers because they’re much less likely to be symptomatic? Which in turn raises the possibility that they’re silent spreaders. So many unknowns still, even as we close in on 12 months living with this virus

The ONS random sampling takes that into account. They just are less infected.

 

[11101]

Just on our way from the airport now - the airline said nothing about it, but we were told by the border police to go get a test, which we did. Results came in half an hour (both negative).

I wouldn’t recommend the nasal swab unless you like having something shoved up as far as your eye socket (twice).

Edit - the police checked your result before you were allowed to leave, they were making sure no-one slipped in and out without the test.

Yeah, i know lots of people who have had the swab and it doesn't sound pleasant.


Anyway, good to see the process is so efficient. Not so good to see the UK government website knows more about Italy's procedures than Italy.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

The ONS random sampling takes that into account. They just are less infected.

Ah. Cool. Didn’t realise they did random sampling. That’s very reassuring. Absolutely no reason to close primary schools then.

 

[Brwned]

A week's worth of data. Don't know university cases specifically.



How so? Not disputing an opinion, but curious as to why you think it's flawed.

I think Massi's pointing out that the sample of cases that they can trace back to a specific location is likely very low, and it won't be randomly distributed, it will have selection bias. So even if school cases account for 40% of all traced cases, it doesn't mean that it accounts for 40% of all cases.

Schools presumably have more stringent requirements on reporting, and they have better information on the people behind the cases. They know not only who had the first case but who they were alongside, so tracing is simpler. Pubs on the other hand have much more limited information on people and have to rely on the contact tracing network to identify folks they were in contact with, which as per the NYT reporting is very unsuccessful. At the same time, those who do contract the virus don't have to list all of the pubs they've been to, that's information they can choose not to disclose, and also in the case of some super spreader socialites, it may not even be information that they recall.

So the questions are what proportion of all cases were successfully traced, and how over represented are schools / under represented are hospitality. Massi's hypothesis that they represent a small proportion and schools are over represented seems logical. Especially with the overall case numbers for those age groups. Have to admit I didn't look into the report much beyond a quick glance at the numbers either so that to be misleading.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Tweet

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Any chance you Nordies could sort your shit out? We’re sharing a small island with you. Thanks.

 

[acnumber9]

Tweet

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Any chance you Nordies could sort your shit out? We’re sharing a small island with you. Thanks.

Border towns. You’re clearly causing problems for us up here.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Border towns. You’re clearly causing problems for us up here.

Touché

 

[Rado_N]

Really worried about the rapid increase in cases in Germany. Last week was the first time we crossed 3000 daily cases since April, and yesterday we crossed 4000. The rate of increase is going up in recent weeks.

Looking into the stats a bit deeper, it seems Berlin has become a hotspot in the last week and has played a large role in contributing to the increased cases. For Munich (where I am), the daily cases seem to have steadied after an initial increase.

Just spent a week in Germany and was really impressed with the general public and their use of masks absolutely everywhere indoors. Didn’t see a single person who wasn’t wearing one, and even outside in open areas many still wore them.

Everywhere was signed to show them as compulsory and there was hand sanitiser everywhere, menus all moved to QR codes to be accessed via your phone rather than handed out, and limits on how people were seated etc.

A lot of this is being done here (UK) too, but it all just felt like it was being taken more seriously there.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Just spent a week in Germany and was really impressed with the general public and their use of masks absolutely everywhere indoors. Didn’t see a single person who wasn’t wearing one, and even outside in open areas many still wore them.

Everywhere was signed to show them as compulsory and there was hand sanitiser everywhere, menus all moved to QR codes to be accessed via your phone rather than handed out, and limits on how people were seated etc.

A lot of this is being done here (UK) too, but it all just felt like it was being taken more seriously there.

All of that is happening in Ireland too. Yet both Germany and Ireland are having a surge in cases too. It’s so frustrating. Feels like so much hard work from everyone to be compliant, all to no avail. My heart bleeds for pubs/restaurants who have go to so much effort to bring in a maximum of 25 - 30% of their usual income over the last few months and they’re still going to end up shuttered in the next few weeks.

 

[RedRover]

I think the UK seems to have done a really bad job even by comparison with most other nations, most of who haven't been very good at all. A good leader like they have in NZ takes hearts and minds with them. BoJo just bumbles through, doesn't even rebuke his main adviser for flouting the law and then expects everyone else to guess what he means and comply if they guess right. It doesn't breed cooperation.

Whilst that may be true, in terms of their current positions which countries are significantly better off? Everywhere in Europe we're seeing a resurgence of cases. Nobody has unlocked this, perhaps because, without a vaccine the stark reality is you can't supress or control a virus like this without completely shutting down and causing chaos.

People still keep mentioning Cummings even now. Where I live at least 50% of the people (if not more) will still have no idea who he is because they take no interest in politics. If they're flouting rules it's not because they've seen him doing it, it's because they are either no longer (or for whatever reason were never) scared of the virus and want to get on with their lives and do what they always do. Rightly or wrongly, that's how I believe it is.

New Zealand's course of action seems heavily dependent on suppressing until (and if) there is a vaccine because without, they've just kicked the can down the road. Their PM may be popular now but the tide can soon turn if there's an economic effect, or if there's an outbreak months after the rest of the world has seen the worst of it.

However charismatic you are, I personally don't believe you can convince a majority of people to put their lives on hold indefinitely. All over the world people are tiring of this. It's human nature. Forcing a change like that on people needs a threat behind it. History tells us that. The threat of the virus is now a normal part of life which many, many people are clearly prepared to accept.

 

[711]

Just been in Sainsburys. No sanitiser anywhere near the petrol station, either at the pumps or the shop entrance or in the shop. As for the main store there is some at the entrance, but none inside anywhere at all. Morrisons has hand gel everywhere, at the entrance, and the exit, the ends of the aisles, and outside the toilets. Sainsburys is rubbish nowadays.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

One thing’s for certain. It looks as though all European countries opened back up too soon. Original lockdown should have been extended for several weeks longer to crush case numbers completely, so we’d have a chance of properly dealing with any clusters that arise in the future. Particularly frustrating living in Ireland where we did actually manage to get daily cases down to single digits but that was pissing in the wind with the virus still circulating in large numbers in countries with which we have open borders.

 

[Rado_N]

All of that is happening in Ireland too. Yet both Germany and Ireland are having a surge in cases too. It’s so frustrating. Feels like so much hard work from everyone to be compliant, all to no avail. My heart bleeds for pubs/restaurants who have go to so much effort to bring in a maximum of 25 - 30% of their usual income over the last few months and they’re still going to end up shuttered in the next few weeks.

It seems to reinforce the suggestion that the spread is from elsewhere, with the PHE data seeming to support it being way more down to schools and workplaces.

Pubs/bars/restaurants are an easy scapegoat though and it’s easy for the DM etc to print pics of people sitting outside pubs and blame them for causing the spread when it doesn’t seem to be borne out by the data.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Whilst that may be true, in terms of their current positions which countries are significantly better off? Everywhere in Europe we're seeing a resurgence of cases. Nobody has unlocked this, perhaps because, without a vaccine the stark reality is you can't supress or control a virus like this without completely shutting down and causing chaos.

People still keep mentioning Cummings even now. Where I live at least 50% of the people (if not more) will still have no idea who he is because they take no interest in politics. If they're flouting rules it's not because they've seen him doing it, it's because they are either no longer (or for whatever reason were never) scared of the virus and want to get on with their lives and do what they always do. Rightly or wrongly, that's how I believe it is.

New Zealand's course of action seems heavily dependent on suppressing until (and if) there is a vaccine because without, they've just kicked the can down the road. Their PM may be popular now but the tide can soon turn if there's an economic effect, or if there's an outbreak months after the rest of the world has seen the worst of it.

However charismatic you are, I personally don't believe you can convince a majority of people to put their lives on hold indefinitely. All over the world people are tiring of this. It's human nature. Forcing a change like that on people needs a threat behind it. History tells us that. The threat of the virus is now a normal part of life which many, many people are clearly prepared to accept.

It’s not though. If/when the virus really is “a normal part of life” we’ll see a surge many many times more dramatic than what we’re going through now. That’s when hospitals get completely full, shut down all non-covid services and start to ration who does/doesn’t get an ITU bed.

There’s every chance we’ll end up with ambulances unable to turn up to car wrecks and severely injured/dying people have to rely on friends and family to bring them to (completely overwhelmed) hospitals.

I understand why people are saying “let it rip” but they’re saying that from a position of ignorance about how that scenario plays out

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It seems to reinforce the suggestion that the spread is from elsewhere, with the PHE data seeming to support it being way more down to schools and workplaces.

Pubs/bars/restaurants are an easy scapegoat though and it’s easy for the DM etc to print pics of people sitting outside pubs and blame them for causing the spread when it doesn’t seem to be borne out by the data.

I think it’s more likely the virus is airborne. So there’s no way to prevent indoor transmission completely. I’m sure the handwashing/handgel/social distancing in restaurants reduced the risk of passing the virus on but doesn’t remove that risk entirely.

In Ireland last week they gave a breakdown of a single cluster in which someone infected waiting staff and people on an adjoining table, despite the restaurant fully complying with the regulations.

 

[Rado_N]

I think it’s more likely the virus is airborne. So there’s no way to prevent indoor transmission completely. I’m sure the handwashing/handgel/social distancing in restaurants reduced the risk of passing the virus on but doesn’t remove that risk entirely.

In Ireland last week they gave a breakdown of a single cluster in which someone infected waiting staff and people on an adjoining table, despite the restaurant fully complying with the regulations.

For feck sake. We’re all doomed.

 

[F-Red]

UK figures - 77 deaths, 17,540 cases.

 

[Pexbo]

UK figures - 77 deaths, 17,540 cases.

feck me those cases are frightening, beginning to wonder if that excel file thing was a dead cat. People have focused on the ineptitude of the track and trace devs and the sudden massive jump in daily cases has passed without much scrutiny. People seemed to have shrugged and put the alarming jump down to how it’s been aggregated rather than it being genuinely shocking that we have this many cases again.

 

[F-Red]

feck me those cases are frightening

At it's peak in March/April the expected number was nearer 100,000 cases a day. The trend upwards is concerning.

Test turnaround time is averaging 3 days in England currently.

 

[Berbasbullet]

feck me those cases are frightening, beginning to wonder if that excel file thing was a dead cat. People have focused on the ineptitude of the track and trace devs and the sudden massive jump in daily cases has passed without much scrutiny. People seemed to have shrugged and put the alarming jump down to how it’s been aggregated rather than it being genuinely shocking that we have this many cases again.

Is that the highest we have had so far?

 

[Jericholyte2]

The more worrying figure is the hospital admissions in UK, now at 3,412 compared to about 3k yesterday. Ventilator beds are now at 442 compared to 410 yesterday.

Steady consistent 10-15% increases.

 

[RedRover]

It’s not though. If/when the virus really is “a normal part of life” we’ll see a surge many many times more dramatic than what we’re going through now. That’s when hospitals get completely full, shut down all non-covid services and start to ration who does/doesn’t get an ITU bed.

There’s every chance we’ll end up with ambulances unable to turn up to car wrecks and severely injured/dying people have to rely on friends and family to bring them to (completely overwhelmed) hospitals.

I understand why people are saying “let it rip” but they’re saying that from a position of ignorance about how that scenario plays out

My point is that millions (if not the majority) of people (certainly 99% of those I know) are going about their business, impeded by the restrictions, but otherwise largely unconcerned. I'm talking about ordinary, often professional people who are now back to worrying about the things they worried about before this all started. I am involved in the management of a business which has (and continues to) take this very seriously in terms of measures and planning etc. but what I see from my colleagues is indifference to this, even if we know we must push on. They're tired of it (as I'm sure we all are) and the logistical problems it brings more than anything.

We were frightened (probably rightly) into compliance pre-lockdown but that's clearly worn off as we've all learned to live under this cloud. You can question whether that's right, but what's answer? How do you enforce measures across millions of people? The only solution seems to be another lockdown and frankly, I suspect the country simply can't afford that.

 

[F-Red]

Is that the highest we have had so far?

Recorded, yes. However given the death rate we had in March/April, the case rate they believe was in 6 figures daily, so probably not the actual highest we've had.

 

[Berbasbullet]

Recorded, yes. However given the death rate we had in March/April, the case rate they believe was in 6 figures daily, so probably not the actual highest we've had.

Aaah I see, still concerning though, and all my mates are banging on about how things should go back to normal and the vulnerable should isolate without mentioning that they would then kill their vulnerable family when they visit them.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

My grandma (85 years old) is in hospital the middle of chemo and yesterday tested positive for covid after running a temperature. Today she tested negative. No idea what's going on.

How accurate are these tests? Is a false positive or false negative more likely?

 

[lynchie]

Is it just a massive coincidence that cases have exploded since schools have been open?

Is it a massive coincidence that cases have exploded since everyone got back from their summer holidays, the weather got cooler, schools reopened, kids started University and people were encouraged to go back to work that there's been a massive increase in cases? No. Does any of that mean there's a convincing case that it's schools that are the problem here? Also no.

I suspect you know that isn't the standard deviation. It might be the range, if the anecdotal evidence is accurate, but that's it. I figure you have some kind of stake in schools because you're making a very strong argument based on data we don't seem to have. If you think I'm doing the same then you've probably read into my words a bit too much.

It was only anecdotal evidence, but I'd be surprised if the distribution of cluster size didn't have an absolutely massive tail. You're right though, I do get over-invested in this. Mainly because I've got a kid in primary school, and they seem to be on a hair trigger to shut down or keep kids off school at the first sign of trouble, while the rest of the country is cracking on.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

My grandma (85 years old) is in hospital the middle of chemo and yesterday tested positive for covid after running a temperature. Today she tested negative. No idea what's going on.

How accurate are these tests? Is a false positive or false negative more likely?

Some bed-time reading for you.

tl;dr Positive result more reliable than negative.

Crap news about your gran. Hope she gets through the rest of her chemo ok.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Some bed-time reading for you.

tl;dr Positive result more reliable than negative.

Crap news about your gran. Hope she gets through the rest of her chemo ok.

That was sadly what I expected.

 

[acnumber9]

Is it a massive coincidence that cases have exploded since everyone got back from their summer holidays, the weather got cooler, schools reopened, kids started University and people were encouraged to go back to work that there's been a massive increase in cases? No. Does any of that mean there's a convincing case that it's schools that are the problem here? Also no.



It was only anecdotal evidence, but I'd be surprised if the distribution of cluster size didn't have an absolutely massive tail. You're right though, I do get over-invested in this. Mainly because I've got a kid in primary school, and they seem to be on a hair trigger to shut down or keep kids off school at the first sign of trouble, while the rest of the country is cracking on.

People were encouraged to go back to work in July. And plenty of people take holidays at that time. I know you’re heavily invested in being right about this but there’s mounting evidence that schools being open is a bigger issue than the Government want to admit. The weather cooling could be having an impact too of course. There’s no convincing argument that schools aren’t a big problem.

 

[11101]

People were encouraged to go back to work in July. And plenty of people take holidays at that time. I know you’re heavily invested in being right about this but there’s mounting evidence that schools being open is a bigger issue than the Government want to admit. The weather cooling could be having an impact too of course. There’s no convincing argument that schools aren’t a big problem.

Italy has been though restaurants reopening, borders reopening, bars, gyms, offices, hair salons, etc. etc. all reopening, all without much of a hitch. A slow creep up to ~1,000 or so cases but nothing alarming. Schools reopen and we're now posting close to 5,000 a day and doubling every few days.

 

[Bebestation]

Does pubs and clubs seem like they will close soon? Instead of 10pm? Or will that just continue.

 

[acnumber9]

Italy has been though restaurants reopening, borders reopening, bars, gyms, offices, hair salons, etc. etc. all reopening, all without much of a hitch. A slow creep up to ~1,000 or so cases but nothing alarming. Schools reopen and we're now posting close to 5,000 a day and doubling every few days.

It’s blatantly obvious. Countries like Italy are still plenty warm enough too. Obviously all those other things have an impact too but not to this degree. It baffles me that apparently closing schools is completely off the table.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

People were encouraged to go back to work in July. And plenty of people take holidays at that time. I know you’re heavily invested in being right about this but there’s mounting evidence that schools being open is a bigger issue than the Government want to admit. The weather cooling could be having an impact too of course. There’s no convincing argument that schools aren’t a big problem.

Italy has been though restaurants reopening, borders reopening, bars, gyms, offices, hair salons, etc. etc. all reopening, all without much of a hitch. A slow creep up to ~1,000 or so cases but nothing alarming. Schools reopen and we're now posting close to 5,000 a day and doubling every few days.

There’s absolutely no question that secondary schools are a big driver here. Teenagers are basically adults, as far as the virus is concerned. So shoving millions of adults into rooms together, having kept them apart all summer, is having predictable consequences. With concrete evidence of same, looking at the age range of positive cases.

The jury is out on primary schools and creches though. The latter opened months ago with no obvious impact on daily cases and both age groups aren’t showing up in big numbers in the testing. there’s a biological plausibility to this because the immune system of young kids is substantively different to that of adults.

It does seem obvious that sending secondary school kids back to home schooling is the single most effective measure any government can do to slow down the surge. Very unpopular, politically, though. I think we might see a fudge, with half term extended by a week or two to coincide with additional lockdown measures across the board. That will keep the lid on things until we get another massive surge kicking in during the run up to Christmas. Which will be delightful.

 

[decorativeed]

Surely the clue is in the number. Bars and household mixing have been allowed since July. Schools have been open since the start of September. It was two weeks after this that cases exploded . Nothing was stopping teenagers mixing before schools opened so why have they increased all of a sudden?

Weren't cases on a steady increase up till then? And what impact did thousands of people returning from holidays in Spain and France have?

 

[acnumber9]

I think we might see a fudge, with half term extended by a week or two to coincide with additional lockdown measures across the board. That will keep the lid on things until we get another massive surge kicking in during the run up to Christmas.

I would bet good money right now that will be their exact plan.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Some bed-time reading for you.

tl;dr Positive result more reliable than negative.

Crap news about your gran. Hope she gets through the rest of her chemo ok.

Apparently as well as the new test coming back negative, they also re-tested the original swab which has now also come back negative. Does that make any sense at all?

 

[acnumber9]

Weren't cases on a steady increase up till then? And what impact did thousands of people returning from holidays in Spain and France have?

Steady, yes. Prompted by some of the things you’re saying and eat out to help out etc. They’ve exploded after schools opening though. And there’s no signs of the tighter restrictions on households making a difference. Are we pretending that everybody came back from holiday right at the start of September?

 

[decorativeed]

Steady, yes. Prompted by some of the things you’re saying and eat out to help out etc. They’ve exploded after schools opening though. And there’s no signs of the tighter restrictions on households making a difference. Are we pretending that everybody came back from holiday right at the start of September?

I don't think the extra restrictions are helping either, largely because they are not enforced, and are being ignored.

Schools probably are a problem, but we're not seeing the numbers reported that we are with universities. I think another problem is that fatigue and indifference has set in. People just don't seem to care anymore. Even in workplaces, the vague government change of stance to work at home where possible is being ignored as simply 'advice' rather than a rule.