And also a fraction of the disruption if those visitors have to visit less.
Yeah I can see that point of view, but the ratio of incidents by institutions remain fairly consistent for the workplace. The big spike in wk39, with the spike of education incidents in wk38, would suggest that transmission has passed from kids to adults into the workplace. The difficulty with the data is that it's never going to be as granular as possible to find out the absolutes, but some broad conclusions can be made. I personally found fig 22 and 23 of the contact data for test and trace interesting.
Indeed.
Absolute numbers of attendance, 8.9 million in primary and secondary education, 2.4m at university.
A genocide of ghouls.
Thanks. I meant more absolute numbers of infections. Just that the numbers of clusters tells pretty much nothing useful.
The problem with university cases, as opposed to school, is that even if they are proportionate they were entirely avoidable.
It’s a fraction of disruption for people visiting these places but not for the industry itself.
Some of the ONS data might help identifying age ranges, anything under 17 should be attributable to primary & secondary education.
You can make different conclusions from different datasets, but the one that stands out for me is the geographical spread of cases. There are very high concentrations of cases in University areas and in densely populated towns and cities.
Agreed that would be a better stat. I'd imagine that's a data collection issue: schools have to report a cluster, but don't have to report numbers because it's too much of an administrative burden without helping out the parents much. Maybe they'll start extrapolating based on number of classes and class sizes if they track this for longer, which seems likely given the trajectory.
Teenagers (secondary school) and young adults the big drivers. Younger kids (primary school) infection rates seem to be flat/declining.
Primary schools have been closed down on the back of a "cluster" of 3 people. There are reports of clusters involving hundreds of kids in University halls. The standard deviation is enormous, and you definitely can't make that relative judgement right now.
A useful site to bookmark - https://www.boycottunsafeschools.co.uk/reported-covid-19-cases/school-cases-after-12-8-20/
Have a look at the ONS data @F-Red linked to. Looks like primary school age children not transmitting much, as predicted. Teenage and uni age infections on the increase. And it was always to be expected that teenagers would behave more like adults when it comes to viral spread.
Well that seems like a well-balanced and thoughtful site. I particularly like their non-leading name.
30,000 school pupils according to ONS figures on October 2nd, according to PHE's COVID-19 epidemiology surveillance summary show that educational settings are attributable for 45% of the positive cases. No surprise really.
Yeah I kinda ignored the domain, but the data of outbreaks seems a little bit more factual.
But it doesn't tell you anything about the risk of having schools open. Yes, schools have closed because children or staff have tested positive. However, there's no data showing that those people contracted the virus at school, or that having those positive cases have led to further community transmission. All it says is that schools are taking a very cautious approach, with huge disruption to kids education.
I assume that a spreader is likely to be someone symptomatic which is why kids are less likely to spread it as they are predominantly asymptomatic? So the chance of being a spreader increases with the chances of being symptomatic which seems to broadly correlate with age?
Is it just a massive coincidence that cases have exploded since schools have been open?
Also. See my post above re secondary school age children and whether they are passing the virus on during school, or after school. We’ve no idea but seems likely the risk is much higher when away from prying eyes of teachers.
No, but your point around whether outbreaks on schools and being linked to more built up areas is supported by the data there is what I'm saying.
I’ve no idea. Lots of theories but nobody knows for certain. I can confirm that primary age kids are absolutely rubbish at social distancing so that’s definitely not protecting them.
I'm really struggling to find the logic behind this reasoning. Schools aren't creating cases they're multiplying what's in the community so density of the area is always a huge factor.
Thanks.
I suspect you know that isn't the standard deviation. It might be the range, if the anecdotal evidence is accurate, but that's it. I figure you have some kind of stake in schools because you're making a very strong argument based on data we don't seem to have. If you think I'm doing the same then you've probably read into my words a bit too much.
A week's worth of data. Don't know university cases specifically.
How so? Not disputing an opinion, but curious as to why you think it's flawed.
This? It is easier if you provide a link
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ot/englandwalesandnorthernireland2october2020The surveillance report is this one - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reportsThis? It is easier if you provide a link
And figure 5? It shows the infections from age 2 to school year 6 in going down! And 6-7 times less than school year 12 to 24 years old. So absolutely no evidence to even consider closing schools for under 12 year olds.
Because if most cases are from un-known sources it is very easy to make wrong assumptions by just using known cases. That is of course bigger problem for people using that data, than for the ones that present it. But nonetheless I think the way they presented it was misleading. (Chance I read it wrong, since I didn't use that much time on it)
All the links you’ve shown give no indicator that primary schools are an issue, based on the age of people getting infected. Secondary schools could be a problem but rise in secondary school age is exactly matched by young adults just past school age, so makes you wonder how much is school and how much is socialising driven indoors now weather has deteriorated (what’s the weather been like in the uk? been miserable in Ireland for the last few weeks)
I know. And where in there is the 30k figure. You are making this harder than it needs to be, which page, which table/figure. You just looked at total in the age groups of 5-19? That doesn't tell the infections happened in school. And grouping of 5-12 year olds with 13-19 year olds is rather pointless.
Possibly, but the timing of schools going back attributes the rise in cases. The issue I see coming is you can't close one and not the other, if you're a parent with kids at primary and secondary, it brings a whole practical challenge around work. As I said two weeks ago, the reality of this is easier said than done sadly.
You're getting mixed up here, and making it harder for yourself. To clarify, the 30k figure comes from the ONS data.
To which I asked:
I.e - why is the surveillance report flawed?
To which you respond referencing the ONS report is flawed, not the Surveillance report from PHE.This? It is easier if you provide a link
If you're looking at the absolute numbers of the data then yes, but the practicality of society having one section of education open, and the other closed, probably causes more challenges to parents than providing a solution. Back to the very original point in this discussion two weeks ago now, it was about educational settings being the elephant in the room at the minute. The government and general public consensus is that pubs/restaurant settings are the challenge for the spread of this virus, and the argument back then was that the elephant in the room that everyone is ignoring and not mentioning is that the education settings are a large contributor to what we're seeing in the UK right now. In reality, which we've seen so far, the 10pm curfew on pubs has done little to reduce case numbers, and has acted as a bit of a window dressing.
Yeah, the timing is hard to ignore. Plus, as you say, closing secondary schools while leaving primary schools open causes its own problems.
Just on our way from the airport now - the airline said nothing about it, but we were told by the border police to go get a test, which we did. Results came in half an hour (both negative).
I didn't say ONS was flawed. It was separate paragraph to illustrate I was talking about surveillance report. I could have indeed made it more obvious.
