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If only we could control our borders somehow...Is anyone watching this Hancock press conference? They’ve found a 3rd strain that they believe is even more transmissible than the one announced last week
I’m pretty sure he explicitly said they believe it’s more transmissible than the one last week. Unless my mind has played games on me, someone else can confirm.I think he meant that its very much transmissible, just like the UK one
@BrwnedI believe that the higher viral load is primarily observed in the upper respiratory tract, thereby potentially increasing transmission but also not substantially increasing the damaging immune response which is mostly elicited by high viral loads within the lung.
Not sure why this mutation to the spike would only affect replication/viral loads in the upper respiratory tract but I guess it could be related to differing ACE expression in airway/lung epithelial cells.
Spike mutation D614G alters SARS-CoV-2 fitness said:The higher viral loads of G614 in the upper airway of patients with COVID-1926 and infected hamsters suggest a role of the D614G substitution in viral transmissibility. The robust replication of SARS-CoV-2 in the human upper airway may be partially conferred by higher expression of the ACE2 receptor in the nasal cavity compared with the lower respiratory tract8,27. Compared with the D614 virus, the G614 virus showed increased replication in the upper airway—but not in the lungs—of hamsters, suggesting that the D614G substitution may select against replication in the lung. Patients infected with G614 virus developed higher levels of viral RNA in nasopharyngeal swabs than those with D614 virus, but did not develop more severe disease1,2,9. Our hamster model of infection recapitulated these clinical findings: the G614 virus developed higher infectious titres than the D614 virus in nasal washes and tracheas, but not in lungs, and there were no differences in weight loss or disease symptoms.
This is the one I read about that is worse in younger people.Tweet
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Yeah, it would be simple if we were an island! Just imagine having a border of sea all around you! Would be amazingly easy to stop this! Just imagine.If only we could control our borders somehow...
It's concerning a little, my other half has a pack of the Innova lateral flow tests and is doing it about 2/3 times a week. All negative so far, but we take it with a pinch of salt until we see some strong data on the accuracy.Asymptomatic testing being the lateral flow tests yes?
What are your thoughts on the supposed terrible sensitivity being found? (Pogue posted the other day)
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The fact that (to my knowledge) we never stopped flights coming in is bonkers.A lot of countries also banned South Africa, but guess they are less of a transfer hub and shouted about it less than we did
The differences between variants isn’t significant enough so as to allow reinfection by a different variant, the immune system will still recognise it. Some cases of re-infection have been reported but it’s not been seen broadly so no need to worry about it too much yet. Still remains to be seen how long immunity lasts however.Has anyone caught it twice yet? Or caught one strain then caught the other?
Cheers, makes sense.The differences between variants isn’t significant enough so as to allow reinfection by a different variant, the immune system will still recognise it. Some cases of re-infection have been reported but it’s not been seen broadly so no need to worry about it too much yet. Still remains to be seen how long immunity lasts however.
Are they offering a reason for mentioning this South African thing? Or are they just telling us that it's different. I am struggling to keep up.Is this the new thing, press are gonna report on every mutation of a virus which isn't a surprise to anyone that understands a virus.
the circus continues.
It’s more about the consequences of announcing such news; whether you think it’s worth it or not, governments around the world are responding in a way that’s significant and that’s affecting people’s lives hugely. It’s not really about the press.Is this the new thing, press are gonna report on every mutation of a virus which isn't a surprise to anyone that understands a virus.
the circus continues.
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Interesting. Completely shuts down my optimism! This is for the other variant though, right? The D614G was the dominant European strain but this new one hasn’t been properly named yet. Could be the exact same explanation though
Yeah they think 4 out of 1000 infections were reinfections from NERVTAG’s meeting last Friday. Not many but then most people haven’t been infected yet anyway. Not sure yet if it makes easier to get reinfected but no alarm bells yet .Has anyone caught it twice yet? Or caught one strain then caught the other?
The mutations from Kent and Durban were different to the thousands of others. We don’t report on them but we report on these because they are substantially different with observable effectsIs this the new thing, press are gonna report on every mutation of a virus which isn't a surprise to anyone that understands a virus.
the circus continues.
Maybe it's because I am biased as I have a need for borders to be open (not for having a jolly somewhere) - but I find it hard to understand why we are not having a more coordinated global approach to travelling (and the whole thing in general).The fact that (to my knowledge) we never stopped flights coming in is bonkers.
The press don’t really have a choice but to report it if Government ministers are the ones saying it. They’re obviously trying to get people to be more compliant.Is this the new thing, press are gonna report on every mutation of a virus which isn't a surprise to anyone that understands a virus.
the circus continues.
Were they asymptomatic back in March?First person I know personally who has had two positive tests - one today and one back in March.
Said it’s much worse this time around.
Not completely asymptomatic. But relatively mildWere they asymptomatic back in March?
Without doubt seasonal conditions played a role in the dramatic decline in infection rates from May onwards. The events you refer to in May, particularly VE Day appear to be mainly street parties with good level of social distancing thus depriving the virus the opportunity to infect. Again the mass gatherings on beaches didn't lead to any spike in infections. Again due to this happening in a vast open air areas. However it is important to note that due to the lockdown prior to these events there was probably far less of the virus in circulation anyway. When you factor in the far less risky activity there was never going to be a rapid spike. Pubs open for three weeks in July but with some degree of social distancing with many people choosing to sit outside. It's interesting that the dates in August you refer to, is when we start to see infections on the rise, slowly at first but consistent, setting in place a chain reaction that leaves us where we are now.Was there a massive spike after VE day in early May? I went for an hour walk that day and there were massive street parties on all the roads around me with lack of traffic at the time. Add in the mass gatherings on beaches on the South coast for the May bank holiday and beyond. Not even sure masks were advised at that time, just 2m distance as masks in shops only became mandatory on 23rd July which massively surprised me, public transport a month before.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ntres-and-enclosed-transport-hubs-from-friday
Lockdowns do work and it's inevitable we'll have one early next month but so far the only thing I've seen that can really push covid back is long spells of humid, hot weather.
In late July pubs have been open for 3 weeks, masks were only mandatory in shops for a few days and generally many more people were out and above, 0 deaths on July 30th which I think was a Thursday. 63 weekly deaths from covid between 3rd-7th August to pluck a random week out of the air.
So whatever was working then should be applied now....ah right it was 30 odd degrees around then. Perhaps I'm too simplistic but that's the big problem I think, sadly more people just die in winter and covid is just another trend whatever you do. Dosen't mean we shouldn't take every step to prevent things but ultimately they'll always be stuff beyond your control and the Weather is certainly one part of that, hasn't even been that harsh a winter yet at least.
Don't like the sound of that.First person I know personally who has had two positive tests - one today and one back in March.
Said it’s much worse this time around.
That would still be catching it twice.Has anyone caught it twice yet? Or caught one strain then caught the other?
This is what NERVTAG said about it last week:Don't like the sound of that.
Antigenic escape. The location of the mutations in the receptor binding domain of the spike glycoprotein raises the possibility that this variant is antigenically distinct from prior variants. Four probable reinfections have been identified amongst 915 subjects with this variant but further work is needed to compare this reinfection rate with comparable data sets.
Better comparative data on reinfection, readmission and case fatality rates will be available next week.
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I've seen at least one other account where the second time infection has resulted in a far worse illness.First person I know personally who has had two positive tests - one today and one back in March.
Said it’s much worse this time around.
I'm just paranoid about Antibody-Dependent Enhancement and have been since this whole thing started.This is what NERVTAG said about it last week:
I know two people who have had it twice. Once at the start in March and again recently. This is in South Africa, so no idea if it has anything to do with the variant.The differences between variants isn’t significant enough so as to allow reinfection by a different variant, the immune system will still recognise it. Some cases of re-infection have been reported but it’s not been seen broadly so no need to worry about it too much yet. Still remains to be seen how long immunity lasts however.
A legitimate worry no doubt, but I couldn't handle worrying about another thing completely outside our control!I'm just paranoid about Antibody-Dependent Enhancement and have been since this whole thing started.
Do people worry about the new variant in South Africa? I know they've been talking about it since November but it sounded a bit academic at that point, and it handed filtered down to the population. And I do think people in rich countries do think about the problems differently. People in the UK say "why do I have to go to work when I can't see my friends?" while people in Turkey said "I don't care about the virus and all of the restrictions, I'll wear the mask and whatever else they're asking, I gotta work 'cause I gotta eat".I know two people who have had it twice. Once at the start in March and again recently. This is in South Africa, so no idea if it has anything to do with the variant.