This is something I've felt for a while. People talk about this "freedom day" nonsense... what exactly are we unable to do right now? We've had mass events, all pubs, bars and restaurants are running as normal, and we're able to stay over at various households. It's hardly the black-and-white worlds many are painting.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
It is a disgrace, not least the fact that a partially vaccinated population is like a petri dish or dare to evolution to create new vaccine resistant variants.
But, feck it. Freedom day. The Euros. Whooo!
“Anticipatory behaviour”. When people know an easing in restrictions is coming they’re likely to adjust their behaviour in advance. If you’re going to be allowed to throw house parties from next weekend, sure what’s the harm in throwing one today?
To expand on that: set a fixed date in the future when everything we go back to normal and then realise you're utterly unable to backtrack because people have already changed their behaviours or are dead set on doing so.
In honesty I don't think there is much hope of stopping this wave in the UK (or in several other countries) - it's happening and a lot of the case growth is already locked in. We'd be talking about a big reimposition of restrictions to get the R rate below 1 at this stage. Which Boris won't do and would probably be ignored if attempted.
I'd like to see some of the mitigations remain - like masks on public transport and in supermarkets and other similar essential indoor settings. Continue WFH for those who can would be no bad thing.
I'd also like to see an open admission that a lot of people will be hospitalised and die in this wave and that if you're in a risk group, you are definitely not included in the opening plans and that whatever new activities you've enjoyed since May (gyms, restaurants, family meetups etc) - you need to stop (at minimum stick to the outdoors). Plus, of course we need to keep encouraging people to get vaccinated and make sure the vaccine centres are where the people are.
It's not too late for some other countries though. Ventilation matters - and places that can't open enough doors and windows (relative to people numbers and activities inside) need either very high quality aircon or continued restrictions - compulsory CO2 monitoring in businesses can give a ballpark indicator there. Anything to buy time so that all who want to be vaxxed can be (and those who can't take the vaccine have help to protect themselves), and everyone else understands the risks and how to avoid them.
I'd like to see some of the mitigations remain - like masks on public transport and in supermarkets and other similar essential indoor settings. Continue WFH for those who can would be no bad thing.
I'd also like to see an open admission that a lot of people will be hospitalised and die in this wave and that if you're in a risk group, you are definitely not included in the opening plans and that whatever new activities you've enjoyed since May (gyms, restaurants, family meetups etc) - you need to stop (at minimum stick to the outdoors). Plus, of course we need to keep encouraging people to get vaccinated and make sure the vaccine centres are where the people are.
It's not too late for some other countries though. Ventilation matters - and places that can't open enough doors and windows (relative to people numbers and activities inside) need either very high quality aircon or continued restrictions - compulsory CO2 monitoring in businesses can give a ballpark indicator there. Anything to buy time so that all who want to be vaxxed can be (and those who can't take the vaccine have help to protect themselves), and everyone else understands the risks and how to avoid them.
The UK is fecked. Soon we’ll be hitting 100k cases a day and at that point, we’ll still have a large amount of hospitalisations purely due to scale, even though the vaccines will reduce what it otherwise would have been. Will 1000 hospitalisations a day be enough for the government to back track and reintroduce measures? I just don’t see how we can continue on this road.
The next wave is fully anticipated and expected in the UK. They wouldn't be opening up everything if that weren't the case.
My concern with a half vaccinated population going freely about their business is that the UK doesn't create or spread yet another variant around. Every variant in Europe has made it's way here though the UK.
What would reintroducing restrictions do though? They were brought in to buy us time to develop and then distribute the vaccine. That has been done. Life has to go on. If people require hospitalisation and haven't had the vaccine then that's on them. If you've had 2 jabs and still require hospitalisation then that's tough luck but what is the alternative?
They'll be delighted if it only goes to 1000/day. It looks like they're ready for it to go 2000/day (maybe 10 -15,000 hospitalised). They're highly dependant on the hospitalisation remaining at the optimistic level of 2% of cases and mostly short stays (assumes that the cases are mostly in the under 30s) - if it breaks into the unvaxxed over 40s in particular, and into the 70+ groups (vaxxed or not - even a breakthrough rate of 5-10% for the vaxxed developing covid is a big deal in these age groups) then hospitalisations could rise fast. There's a lot of concern over ICU care in particular. Some regions are likely to be particularly hard hit. Some of the models are already suggesting that the hospitalisation rate is over 4% not the 2% seen early in the wave.
Will they track back? I'm not seeing it. I think we'll hear a lot of talk about shielding, personal responsibility, local measures and businesses having the right to decide how to operate (table service, masks etc). Basically they'll push it out of their responsibility and try and blame kids, Andy Burnham, and reckless foreign travel.
You have the biggest airport hub in Europe. Perhaps they need to think about that
Politely disagree. All the stuff you talk about is good for existing groups/support bubbles but the restrictions are still quite limiting for individuals. I'm pretty biased though as I'm a single person who lives alone and lots of things I liked to do before the pandemic still haven't come back properly.
Edit - To clarify, this isn't me saying we should scrap restrictions or anything. We should keep them but they should be better judged. It still boggles my mind how we ended up in a situation where government prioritised reopening of bars and shopping venues over less densely packed activities.
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how do people think the knock on effect from the euros will play out? People were fairly packed into the squares and places I saw last night
Should peak in 3 weeks. Lockdown for September.
I would be so mad if this happened.
I think the government will be very resistant to lockdown so it would only happen if the numbers are out of control. It should be used as a preventative measure rather than a reactive one but the Government will do the latter.
As a pub owner I'm dreading tonight's announcement, although I've already told my customers that we will not be changing much.
We will have to scrap the sign in, and we unfortunately cannot enforce masks, although it kind of makes little sense once you have been inside a pub for a few hours anyway. However my staff and I will still be wearing them.
We are keeping table service and I won't be allowing standing in the pub, or anyone sitting or ordering at the bar. Thankfully 99% of our customers think we are being sensible, especially as we are in one of the highest spreading areas at the moment and where 12 neighbouring bars and clubs have had to shut over the last week or two.
I've also had to piss off all the musicians and bands we booked as I won't be having music back until we think it feels safe to do so. Ours is (was) the number one music pub in the town with live music 4 nights a week, but I just don't feel comfortable having it back and encouraging everyone to be crammed in tight and with 7 deep at the bar. I think lots of our older customers won't like that either so we will essentially just be full of the Anti-vaxers and the kids who think they are invincible.
Btw, I'm writing all this from a bed in hospital where I was admitted this morning because I literally cannot breath and feel like my throat and chest are on fire. I've had a severe cold for a week, but this morning I couldn't move when I woke and the Dr called an ambulance for me. Although they think it's possibly pneumonia rather than Covid, but still. Not nice and I'm waiting for my results. And yes, I have had both my jabs. (AZ)
I'm 100% sure the stress of working since we reopened and all the worry about restrictions etc, the 110 hour weeks, and all the issues with staff and lack of, all due to Covid, has put me here. The effects of Covid reach far deeper than most people think. It enrages me when I see all these people who just want everything to go back to normal. Don't we all? But I think it's been proved it's not that simple and it can't happen on a specific date just because someone wants it to, or they have backed themselves in to a corner by saying it will and they don't have the balls to go back on it.
We will have to scrap the sign in, and we unfortunately cannot enforce masks, although it kind of makes little sense once you have been inside a pub for a few hours anyway. However my staff and I will still be wearing them.
We are keeping table service and I won't be allowing standing in the pub, or anyone sitting or ordering at the bar. Thankfully 99% of our customers think we are being sensible, especially as we are in one of the highest spreading areas at the moment and where 12 neighbouring bars and clubs have had to shut over the last week or two.
I've also had to piss off all the musicians and bands we booked as I won't be having music back until we think it feels safe to do so. Ours is (was) the number one music pub in the town with live music 4 nights a week, but I just don't feel comfortable having it back and encouraging everyone to be crammed in tight and with 7 deep at the bar. I think lots of our older customers won't like that either so we will essentially just be full of the Anti-vaxers and the kids who think they are invincible.
Btw, I'm writing all this from a bed in hospital where I was admitted this morning because I literally cannot breath and feel like my throat and chest are on fire. I've had a severe cold for a week, but this morning I couldn't move when I woke and the Dr called an ambulance for me. Although they think it's possibly pneumonia rather than Covid, but still. Not nice and I'm waiting for my results. And yes, I have had both my jabs. (AZ)
I'm 100% sure the stress of working since we reopened and all the worry about restrictions etc, the 110 hour weeks, and all the issues with staff and lack of, all due to Covid, has put me here. The effects of Covid reach far deeper than most people think. It enrages me when I see all these people who just want everything to go back to normal. Don't we all? But I think it's been proved it's not that simple and it can't happen on a specific date just because someone wants it to, or they have backed themselves in to a corner by saying it will and they don't have the balls to go back on it.
All restrictions to end as planned on 19th.
I was hoping they’d see sense with masks & continue the legal requirement for them, but nope. Also the “If not now, then when?” sound bite is as shite as the “freedom day” declaration.
I was hoping they’d see sense with masks & continue the legal requirement for them, but nope. Also the “If not now, then when?” sound bite is as shite as the “freedom day” declaration.
Crap news. Get well soon.
You are absolutely right and I think you’re taking sensible precautions at your bar. If only everyone had common sense.
Sorry to hear you’re down with something, hope you get better soon
The alternative is just to wait until everyone has been given the chance to have two vaccines. That’s an achievable target within a relatively short time frame, so it’s a legitimate alternative. It’s not like people are saying they should lockdown indefinitely, they’re just saying hold onto some pretty limited restrictions until that key health target is met.
Get well very soon man. You are doing all you can best wishes.
Thanks lads.
Just had a chest x-ray and my Covid test came back negative. It seems I've just got a really nasty ear and throat virus caused from being run down and overworked I got a bit of a bollocking and told to rest which was amusing.
Guess that is good though - take it easy.Thanks lads.
Just had a chest x-ray and my Covid test came back negative. It seems I've just got a really nasty ear and throat virus caused from being run down and overworked I got a bit of a bollocking and told to rest which was amusing.
Thanks mate. It's very good considering the restaurant right next door to us closed today due to multiple confirmed cases.
The cost to owners is insane with all this closing, sanitizing and fumigating, deep cleaning etc. But hey, it's back to normal next Monday isn't it?
What does “if we go cautiously mean”?
Very odd.
Very odd.
It's like the government are making it up as they go along, off the cuff
He's fecked himself again - he made a big deal about it being unreversible etc. so now has to say it's happening but hoping the public decide to voluntarily keep restrictions
We’re run by morons.
This is by no means new information, but today’s news is a good reminder.
This is by no means new information, but today’s news is a good reminder.
@langster, oates and I send big hugs, hope you're soon back home with your feet up watching TV. xx
Won't that be when kids start to go back to school?
Oh hell just seen your post @langster, get some bloody rest you idiot and feel better soon mate.
Good and speedy recovery @langster
These days, I think it is a bit unfair to criticise BoJo given the success of the vaccine campaign.
What are your recommendations? Another lockdown now?
What are your recommendations? Another lockdown now?
The government advisory group's SPI-M model - the thing that's supposed to estimate hospitalisations etc as the case rates rise had been updated:
https://assets.publishing.service.g...I-M-O_Summary_Roadmap_second_Step_4.2__1_.pdf
They show a wide range of outcomes with somewhere between 1000/day and 10,000/day hospital admissions depending on the way the case rates across age groups move. To go with the wide margins there's a set of information about vaccine effectiveness, vaccine takeup by age and the big unknown social mixing behaviour. The optimistic projections come from the idea that the 40+ will basically behave like they're doing now and, of the unvaxxed groups, only the under 30s will actually start to really mix more.
Personally I'd interpret that as meaning if age group (indoor) mixing rates change, all bets are off really. They say, that given the uncertainties, case and hospitalisation rates need continuous monitoring. On that basis, the under 1000 admissions/day line is currently looking a little optimistic - but they're hoping that schools breaking up will make it better rather than worse and that the case rate flattening seen in the north west is typical.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...I-M-O_Summary_Roadmap_second_Step_4.2__1_.pdf
They show a wide range of outcomes with somewhere between 1000/day and 10,000/day hospital admissions depending on the way the case rates across age groups move. To go with the wide margins there's a set of information about vaccine effectiveness, vaccine takeup by age and the big unknown social mixing behaviour. The optimistic projections come from the idea that the 40+ will basically behave like they're doing now and, of the unvaxxed groups, only the under 30s will actually start to really mix more.
Personally I'd interpret that as meaning if age group (indoor) mixing rates change, all bets are off really. They say, that given the uncertainties, case and hospitalisation rates need continuous monitoring. On that basis, the under 1000 admissions/day line is currently looking a little optimistic - but they're hoping that schools breaking up will make it better rather than worse and that the case rate flattening seen in the north west is typical.
It is rediculous and clearly demonstrates his lack of leadership.
Is it important to wear a face covering inside a public place or not.
The answer can only be yes or no. That is unless you are the PM.
This is a public safety issue. Just the same as smoking and drink driving.
Governments tried to recommend not to. But it only became the the norm when legislation was imposed.
But with Covid, something that has killed at least 130,000 people in just over a year, they are removing legislation and 'urging' the public to wear a face covering inside crowded places.
Crazy.
A sensible approach like keeping masks for transport, in shops etc, and social distancing.
that doesn’t equal lockdown but it’s sensible
I thought he changed his mind in the last days and that masks remain mandatory in transports and shops.
Oh maybe he has, haven’t seen the news last few days. I thought he had said his decisions were irreversible the other day