SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

decorativeed said:
Thanks for the replies. Interesting stuff, but slower progress than I'd hoped for.
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The reason the progress may seem slow is a good one though. It's because the existing vaccines are working well. As soon as you change a formulation you've got an issue, do you make only the new stuff, or do you make the old stuff as well.

For Pfizer who've shipped massive numbers of vaccines, the changeover will cost production time as well as need a lot of testing. Getting it wrong, and producing a less efficacious vaccine against new variants than we've already got, would kill more people than it saves. Getting it right (for Delta and beta) might be irrelevant within months, and the production blip (or worse) could easily slow down rollout and kill more people than any temporarily improved efficacy saves.

The bigger research story is focused on things like booster cocktails, combined flu/covid jabs etc. Those won't appear overnight.

If we'd "really" already seen that we needed a new formulation for the autumn (and knew which mutation to target) I'm pretty confident we'd have got one. As things stand Pfizer in particular are more interested in the danger of poor immunity in some immune suppressed people and possible waning immunity against infection in more people (based on some very early data from Israel).
 
decorativeed said:
Here's a question - we kept hearing about how the vaccines could be tweaked to keep up with any variants. But I've not heard anything about how they are getting on with that and updating them to deal with Delta. Anyone heard any updates?
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Right now there is data to suggest some of the main vaccines may be more effective against serious disease for the Delta variant than they were against the original virus, so as already said, which variant do they tweak it for? It's probably going to end up like the flu vacccine where they tweak it for the most likely candidates but half the time it ends up being the wrong ones.
 
Ecstatic said:
Thanks for sharing but disappointing study. It seems we don't see interesting and relevant data such the number of annual deaths over the last 5 years for each country.
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Isn’t that the point of looking at it in terms of % change and using a 5-year national average as the baseline? It normalises the data so you can make comparisons on both relative measures: how many more deaths are we seeing vs. in our own country vs. a 5 year average, and how much higher or lower is that relative difference / excess across other countries.
 
11101 said:
This is back in the news again today in Italy. Over 1,000 scientists including some from our own government have now backed it, and been saying how dangerous it all is in light of how fast cases and hospitalisations are rising.
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First thing is to stop all UK tourism to Italy. After all, the UK won't let us go back there without quarantining, even with a Covid certificate. It's ridiculous.
 
Penna said:
First thing is to stop all UK tourism to Italy. After all, the UK won't let us go back there without quarantining, even with a Covid certificate. It's ridiculous.
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We already do restrict it. It's 5 days isolation plus a test at either end, or 10 days followed by a test. We have long since stopped policing arrivals though.

I would definitely back totally blocking UK arrivals into the EU again though i think the horse has already bolted on the Delta variant. It's the variants created by freedom day we need to avoid.
 
This is reassuring from a scientific adviser to the government:

"It’s widely accepted the number of cases would increase, we’ve known this would happen when we unlocked for many months now, we’d expect it.... so ‘dangerous, unethical experiment’ seems to be a very inaccurate description of what’s going on"

It's not an experiment because we expected it. Well that's a relief.
 
I got pinged on Friday just as I was getting ready to leave for silverstone. First world problems and all. I didn't mind really as F1 is s big bag of boring shite but the camping and drinking would have been fun.
 
jojojo said:
The reason the progress may seem slow is a good one though. It's because the existing vaccines are working well. As soon as you change a formulation you've got an issue, do you make only the new stuff, or do you make the old stuff as well.

For Pfizer who've shipped massive numbers of vaccines, the changeover will cost production time as well as need a lot of testing. Getting it wrong, and producing a less efficacious vaccine against new variants than we've already got, would kill more people than it saves. Getting it right (for Delta and beta) might be irrelevant within months, and the production blip (or worse) could easily slow down rollout and kill more people than any temporarily improved efficacy saves.

The bigger research story is focused on things like booster cocktails, combined flu/covid jabs etc. Those won't appear overnight.

If we'd "really" already seen that we needed a new formulation for the autumn (and knew which mutation to target) I'm pretty confident we'd have got one. As things stand Pfizer in particular are more interested in the danger of poor immunity in some immune suppressed people and possible waning immunity against infection in more people (based on some very early data from Israel).
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That's reassuring. I've just had my second dose of pfizer this morning, so hopefully I'll have a good level of protection. Still going to be wearing masks and avoiding crowds though, but I've always been pretty crowd averse anyway.
 
Pickle85 said:
I got pinged on Friday just as I was getting ready to leave for silverstone. First world problems and all. I didn't mind really as F1 is s big bag of boring shite but the camping and drinking would have been fun.
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That's shit timing. As of monday, double-jabbed people won't have to isolate even if they come into contact with someone who's tested positive.
 
Salt Bailly said:
That's shit timing. As of monday, double-jabbed people won't have to isolate even if they come into contact with someone who's tested positive.
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Just my luck. But given everything else going on it seems a little petty to moan about it. That isn't going to stop me from doing just that, mind.
 
decorativeed said:
I had the opposite experience yesterday. Only saw one person without a mask, which is the fewest I've ever seen in there.
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Same, one or two without a mask in my regular superstore yesterday, where there were usually none. Expect that to change soon though.

Looking at the increasing case numbers, delta variant got hold first in some of the north west towns, Bolton, Blackburn, Preston, it's interesting to note that numbers here have plateaued or are falling slightly, as vaccination and previous immunity is swinging the tide. It's still increaing in the north west as a whole, but not the areas that got it first. Expect the same to happen elsewhere, in time.
 
Hugh Jass said:
In Ireland one in twenty people infected are vaccinated which is a worry. 1000 cases today so i imagine the opening up will be delayed.
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That isn’t worrying at all though, is it? You are at about 50% of vaccined population, more than 60% with first dose already. That means vaccines are really efficient if the 50% of unvaccinated are generating 95% of cases.
 
Got pinged yesterday morning, contact dating back to Monday when I was off work and literally didn't leave the house, only person I saw was my Nannan who came over and doesn't even have a phone that can download the contact tracing app ffs. Typical on a scorching weekend!
 
Leroy The Red said:
So presumably the plan is open up for the summer, get everyone spunking the cash then lockdown in October?
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No lockdown in Bolton, Blackburn or Preston etc, where Delta first took hold, and we're at the peak or past the peak here.

I wouldn't have opened up yet personally, I'd have kept things as they are a bit longer, but I don't think the decision is going to be reversed now. Unless something even worse comes along. :(
 
Sarni said:
That isn’t worrying at all though, is it? You are at about 50% of vaccined population, more than 60% with first dose already. That means vaccines are really efficient if the 50% of unvaccinated are generating 95% of cases.
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Those figures are 60 % and 75%, respectively, as of Friday. You’re spot on, though.
 
Santos J said:
Got pinged yesterday morning, contact dating back to Monday when I was off work and literally didn't leave the house, only person I saw was my Nannan who came over and doesn't even have a phone that can download the contact tracing app ffs. Typical on a scorching weekend!
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What's a nannan?
 
Brwned said:
Isn’t that the point of looking at it in terms of % change and using a 5-year national average as the baseline? It normalises the data so you can make comparisons on both relative measures: how many more deaths are we seeing vs. in our own country vs. a 5 year average, and how much higher or lower is that relative difference / excess across other countries.
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Sure, there are several ways to analyse and interpret data.

I was hoping to see how differently each of these countries is impacted by covid from a historical standpoint.

For example, any good investor or analyst whatever the field (purchase a property or equity capital of a company, etc.) will analyse the current price/performance of an asset over the last years.

Maybe I am missing something so will take a deeper look at it later
 
Ecstatic said:
Sure, there are several ways to analyse and interpret data.

I was hoping to see how differently each of these countries is impacted by covid from a historical standpoint.

For example, any good investor or analyst whatever the field (purchase a property or equity capital of a company, etc.) will analyse the current price/performance of an asset over the last years.

Maybe I am missing something so will take a deeper look at it later
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Excess deaths have historical analysis built into it. They tell you how many more deaths there have been vs the historical 5-year average in that country, or what they term "expected deaths". So if the difference between expected deaths and actual deaths is 0 then it tells you the same number of people died as would be expected based on historical trends. The % change shown in the first chart adds an additional layer on top that normalises the data within each country, so you can compare how significantly things have changed across all countries in a single view. Those two data transformations are the only way you can meaningfully compare across countries and over time in a single view. That's not showing less data or presenting a narrow view on things, it's providing more information.

For example this tells you that in a single week in mid-April 2020 in the UK there were 24,691 deaths from all causes, whereas in the previous 5 years on the same week, there was an average of 11,825 deaths. In other words there were more than twice as many deaths as you'd expect, all things being equal. The graphic shows you that this was the biggest deviation from excess deaths in Britain, with all of the seasonal effects stripped away, and the degree of excess deaths was more significant than anything experienced in Portugal (+ 75%, or an extra 2000 deaths in Jan this year) but not as bad as Spain at its worst (+ 158%, or an extra 13k deaths in April last year). Comparing the absolute numbers would be difficult to do within a single country across those kinds of timeframes, and completely impossible across countries with varying populations and mortality rates. It's a really effective way for cross-country, temporal analysis at that level of precision.

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711 said:
No lockdown in Bolton, Blackburn or Preston etc, where Delta first took hold, and we're at the peak or past the peak here.

I wouldn't have opened up yet personally, I'd have kept things as they are a bit longer, but I don't think the decision is going to be reversed now. Unless something even worse comes along. :(
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The Bolton bastard variant ?
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
The vaccine doesn’t stop you getting it, just makes it less likely you’ll get it really bad
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I know. Just thinking about the optics though of the Health Secretary getting it pre-freedom day.
Opening up everything just seems really irresponsible when we've got Royal London reopening their covid overflow ITU, QE in birmingham cancelling surgeries and the north east having a huge surge. And 47% of the population who are not yet double jabbed are being thrust into danger.
 
Wolverine said:
I know. Just thinking about the optics though of the Health Secretary getting it pre-freedom day.
Opening up everything just seems really irresponsible when we've got Royal London reopening their covid overflow ITU, QE in birmingham cancelling surgeries and the north east having a huge surge. And 47% of the population who are not yet double jabbed are being thrust into danger.
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Yep can't argue with that
 


No chance that imbecile misses his photo-op for freedom day
 
Dan_F said:
Surely there’s no possible way that he doesn’t get pinged by the app, unless the meeting was for less than 15 minutes.
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He uninstalled it when he realised he wouldn't need it to go to the pub.
 
Salt Bailly said:
That's shit timing. As of monday, double-jabbed people won't have to isolate even if they come into contact with someone who's tested positive.
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Pickle85 said:
Just my luck. But given everything else going on it seems a little petty to moan about it. That isn't going to stop me from doing just that, mind.
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Just to correct myself, the current isolation rules remain in place next week; they change on August 16th.
 
With hospitalisations rising, ICU usage is rising as well. Whereas hospitalisations numbers were dominated by the over 70s in previous waves, there are proportionately more under 50s this time round. While most of this group recover quickly, the ones who get worse are candidates for ICU places (whereas the older ones were often too frail for that kind of treatment)

A cautionary note on what ICU usage for covid patients means, and how it eats into capacity needed for other kinds of urgent treatment.
 
jojojo said:
With hospitalisations rising, ICU usage is rising as well. Whereas hospitalisations numbers were dominated by the over 70s in previous waves, there are proportionately more under 50s this time round. While most of this group recover quickly, the ones who get worse are candidates for ICU places (whereas the older ones were often too frail for that kind of treatment)

A cautionary note on what ICU usage for covid patients means, and how it eats into capacity needed for other kinds of urgent treatment.
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Those are median lengths of stay too. There’s a long tail with covid patients, some of them blocking ITU beds for months at a time.
 
This delta variant is wreaking havoc in indonesia. Almost all or my relatives family have people infected.

My wife and my inlaw. My japanese neighbor and his staff.

50k cases per day for the past week alone and it's not gonna get better soon.

feck what your government say. Stay at home if you can folks. Shore up the mask. Delta variant is more contagious. Even if there's no restriction dont think it's safe
 
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