Santos J
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- Dec 8, 2013
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What the feck, apparently it's only a Sheffield thingWhat's a nannan?
Grandma/Nan whatever, knew it wasn't overly common but didn't realise it was only a local thing
What the feck, apparently it's only a Sheffield thingWhat's a nannan?
Sure, there are several ways to analyse and interpret data.Isn’t that the point of looking at it in terms of % change and using a 5-year national average as the baseline? It normalises the data so you can make comparisons on both relative measures: how many more deaths are we seeing vs. in our own country vs. a 5 year average, and how much higher or lower is that relative difference / excess across other countries.
Excess deaths have historical analysis built into it. They tell you how many more deaths there have been vs the historical 5-year average in that country, or what they term "expected deaths". So if the difference between expected deaths and actual deaths is 0 then it tells you the same number of people died as would be expected based on historical trends. The % change shown in the first chart adds an additional layer on top that normalises the data within each country, so you can compare how significantly things have changed across all countries in a single view. Those two data transformations are the only way you can meaningfully compare across countries and over time in a single view. That's not showing less data or presenting a narrow view on things, it's providing more information.Sure, there are several ways to analyse and interpret data.
I was hoping to see how differently each of these countries is impacted by covid from a historical standpoint.
For example, any good investor or analyst whatever the field (purchase a property or equity capital of a company, etc.) will analyse the current price/performance of an asset over the last years.
Maybe I am missing something so will take a deeper look at it later
Walking the walk.Double vaccinated Sajid Javid’s got covid
The Bolton bastard variant ?No lockdown in Bolton, Blackburn or Preston etc, where Delta first took hold, and we're at the peak or past the peak here.
I wouldn't have opened up yet personally, I'd have kept things as they are a bit longer, but I don't think the decision is going to be reversed now. Unless something even worse comes along.
Walking the walk.
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The vaccine doesn’t stop you getting it, just makes it less likely you’ll get it really badDouble vaccinated Sajid Javid’s got covid
I know. Just thinking about the optics though of the Health Secretary getting it pre-freedom day.The vaccine doesn’t stop you getting it, just makes it less likely you’ll get it really bad
Yep can't argue with thatI know. Just thinking about the optics though of the Health Secretary getting it pre-freedom day.
Opening up everything just seems really irresponsible when we've got Royal London reopening their covid overflow ITU, QE in birmingham cancelling surgeries and the north east having a huge surge. And 47% of the population who are not yet double jabbed are being thrust into danger.
Thoughts and prayers.Double vaccinated Sajid Javid’s got covid
Not my favourite politician, but...Double vaccinated Sajid Javid’s got covid
He uninstalled it when he realised he wouldn't need it to go to the pub.Surely there’s no possible way that he doesn’t get pinged by the app, unless the meeting was for less than 15 minutes.
That's assuming he has the app!Surely there’s no possible way that he doesn’t get pinged by the app, unless the meeting was for less than 15 minutes.
That's shit timing. As of monday, double-jabbed people won't have to isolate even if they come into contact with someone who's tested positive.
Just to correct myself, the current isolation rules remain in place next week; they change on August 16th.Just my luck. But given everything else going on it seems a little petty to moan about it. That isn't going to stop me from doing just that, mind.
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Those are median lengths of stay too. There’s a long tail with covid patients, some of them blocking ITU beds for months at a time.With hospitalisations rising, ICU usage is rising as well. Whereas hospitalisations numbers were dominated by the over 70s in previous waves, there are proportionately more under 50s this time round. While most of this group recover quickly, the ones who get worse are candidates for ICU places (whereas the older ones were often too frail for that kind of treatment)
A cautionary note on what ICU usage for covid patients means, and how it eats into capacity needed for other kinds of urgent treatment.
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Surely he couldn’t use that as an excuse as to why he wouldn’t be isolating though.That's assuming he has the app!
I'm guessing without the app you'd only self isolate if contacted by Test and Trace (who I imagine are only contacting a small % of contacts given the case load)?Surely he couldn’t use that as an excuse as to why he wouldn’t be isolating though.
I feel like if Johnson isn’t going to isolate, after being in direct, indoor (assumption) contact with someone confirmed positive…we might as well pack in any form of isolation. The public are barely listening now.I'm guessing without the app you'd only self isolate if contacted by Test and Trace (who I imagine are only contacting a small % of contacts given the case load)?
As deaths lag behind cases, its a little scary to think what the numbers will reach in 3 weeks
CTRL + F on this page for "Coronavirus waves compared"How many cases did Uk have every day 3 weeks ago ?
edit: apparently 15-20k.. so its about 3x now.. Checked the deaths are around 30/day.
Its mostly younger people and most of them seem to be recovering .. which is great..
Obviously the cases getting out of control is bad because it increases the chances of a high risk person getting infected.. but I dont think the deaths will reach anywhere near what it did around Dec-Jan
I think the bigger problem would be if people are looking to politicians to set an example.I feel like if Johnson isn’t going to isolate, after being in direct, indoor (assumption) contact with someone confirmed positive…we might as well pack in any form of isolation. The public are barely listening now.
Very true I’m sure they’re not, but lots will use any excuse they can to reinforce their view that they don’t need to isolate, wear masks etc etc.I think the bigger problem would be if people are looking to politicians to set an example.
Thank you very for your great post Sir. Greatly appreciated.Excess deaths have historical analysis built into it. They tell you how many more deaths there have been vs the historical 5-year average in that country, or what they term "expected deaths". So if the difference between expected deaths and actual deaths is 0 then it tells you the same number of people died as would be expected based on historical trends. The % change shown in the first chart adds an additional layer on top that normalises the data within each country, so you can compare how significantly things have changed across all countries in a single view. Those two data transformations are the only way you can meaningfully compare across countries and over time in a single view. That's not showing less data or presenting a narrow view on things, it's providing more information.
For example this tells you that in a single week in mid-April 2020 in the UK there were 24,691 deaths from all causes, whereas in the previous 5 years on the same week, there was an average of 11,825 deaths. In other words there were more than twice as many deaths as you'd expect, all things being equal. The graphic shows you that this was the biggest deviation from excess deaths in Britain, with all of the seasonal effects stripped away, and the degree of excess deaths was more significant than anything experienced in Portugal (+ 75%, or an extra 2000 deaths in Jan this year) but not as bad as Spain at its worst (+ 158%, or an extra 13k deaths in April last year). Comparing the absolute numbers would be difficult to do within a single country across those kinds of timeframes, and completely impossible across countries with varying populations and mortality rates. It's a really effective way for cross-country, temporal analysis at that level of precision.
What possible reason could people have for assuming he will fail to do the right thing? If there’s anyone due the benefit of the doubt, their name isn’t Boris Johnson.Has Johnson said he isn't going to isolate, or is this just being assumed for some reason? I know he's a tosser but it's not right to make stuff up either.
That's answered my question thanks, it is an assumption.What possible reason could people have for assuming he will fail to do the right thing? If there’s anyone due the benefit of the doubt, their name isn’t Boris Johnson.
I think people are perfectly within their rights to consider the damage of the scenario where he does the wrong thing.
Nice. We are at about 43% and it won’t climb any higher as the remaining 57% mostly do not believe the virus exist/think vaccine is far more dangerous. Our government has also said they will not try to make any restrictions aimed at unvaccinated like France (mostly because their voters are largely in that group) so that incentive is also gone. I’m preparing for a tough Autumn, fortunately all my close relatives and friends are fully vaccinated already. Part of me really wants the virus to hit the idiots, who are not getting vaccines because they reckon they are amazingly smart and have discovered the conspiracy, very hard. Unfortunately this is not how it works.Those figures are 60 % and 75%, respectively, as of Friday. You’re spot on, though.
So this is primarily a technical issue right now, and there is a working group setup to fix it. The UK needs to be able to access the data behind the EU QR code but GDPR makes it difficult. It could be done in a few weeks, however that doesn't account for the politicians getting involved as they are now beginning to do, slapping random restrictions on countries.Pretty stressed out here at the moment. We've got our wedding booked in for 22nd August. We started planning this in April 2019, thinking that we'd have loads of time to sort things out and the more time the better. Then, Covid hit.
Looking at these rising numbers is making us both nervous whether or not restrictions will come into place in a month's time. To make things even more confusing, my wife-to-be is Belgian with her entire family living over there. The original plan (pre-Covid) was to have them come over and celebrate the day with us...because generally you'd expect the bride's family to be there on the day. Well, just over a month to go and we're at that stage where we need to start submitting numbers. Honestly, how likely do we think it will be for Belgian residents to come to the UK and not have to quarantine on arrival and then leave and not have to quarantine back home? Everyone coming over (bar a few kids under 5) will be double vaccinated. I keep hearing talk about the EU and UK having reciprocal arrangements in place soon with regards to recognising each other's vaccine status, but there hasn't been word on this for weeks.
We can't postpone either. We enquired about it in January (to stop this exact situation from happening) and our venue told us no. I know that we should be grateful that we've had our vaccines and everyone around us is safe, but it doesn't stop us stressing over a very real problem for us. We've put years of savings into this...
And I’d say man up. Seriously people dodging a bit of the side effects, imagine how you’d feel if you got the actual virus? Or you gave it to a friend or relative?How confident are people that the uptake of booster jabs will be high enough? I know a few people who got both jabs and are saying they just don't want to go through it again, especially those that were a bit ill afterwards initially. I'm not saying they're right, i'm just wondering if this might be an issue.
My first jab was a pretty bad experience and although i'm definitely having the second, I can't say I'm keen on going through all that again.
You’re telling that like a good storyWent to a kebab shop for my tea last night, in Wales where unlocking is behind England and masks still very much mandatory. I was worried as I left my car that I’d forgotten my mask, was ready to explain apologetically and suggest that they could take my order outside the door. Fortunately inside there were about six customers and a similar number of staff and not a mask in site - “Yes Boss?” Relief.
Yup, that's true! It's for the best to get it done. Feels like this is what it's going to be like for the foreseeable future- learning to live with the virus and getting boosters for different variants.And I’d say man up. Seriously people dodging a bit of the side effects, imagine how you’d feel if you got the actual virus? Or you gave it to a friend or relative?