What the feck, apparently it's only a Sheffield thing
Grandma/Nan whatever, knew it wasn't overly common but didn't realise it was only a local thing
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Grandma/Nan whatever, knew it wasn't overly common but didn't realise it was only a local thing
Sure, there are several ways to analyse and interpret data.
I was hoping to see how differently each of these countries is impacted by covid from a historical standpoint.
For example, any good investor or analyst whatever the field (purchase a property or equity capital of a company, etc.) will analyse the current price/performance of an asset over the last years.
Maybe I am missing something so will take a deeper look at it later
Double vaccinated Sajid Javid’s got covid
Excess deaths have historical analysis built into it. They tell you how many more deaths there have been vs the historical 5-year average in that country, or what they term "expected deaths". So if the difference between expected deaths and actual deaths is 0 then it tells you the same number of people died as would be expected based on historical trends. The % change shown in the first chart adds an additional layer on top that normalises the data within each country, so you can compare how significantly things have changed across all countries in a single view. Those two data transformations are the only way you can meaningfully compare across countries and over time in a single view. That's not showing less data or presenting a narrow view on things, it's providing more information.
For example this tells you that in a single week in mid-April 2020 in the UK there were 24,691 deaths from all causes, whereas in the previous 5 years on the same week, there was an average of 11,825 deaths. In other words there were more than twice as many deaths as you'd expect, all things being equal. The graphic shows you that this was the biggest deviation from excess deaths in Britain, with all of the seasonal effects stripped away, and the degree of excess deaths was more significant than anything experienced in Portugal (+ 75%, or an extra 2000 deaths in Jan this year) but not as bad as Spain at its worst (+ 158%, or an extra 13k deaths in April last year). Comparing the absolute numbers would be difficult to do within a single country across those kinds of timeframes, and completely impossible across countries with varying populations and mortality rates. It's a really effective way for cross-country, temporal analysis at that level of precision.
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Walking the walk.
The Bolton bastard variant ?No lockdown in Bolton, Blackburn or Preston etc, where Delta first took hold, and we're at the peak or past the peak here.
I wouldn't have opened up yet personally, I'd have kept things as they are a bit longer, but I don't think the decision is going to be reversed now. Unless something even worse comes along.
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Doesn't know his own rules!
Mentions being "groggy" and "mild symptoms" and therefore took a lateral flow test
PCR man!
The vaccine doesn’t stop you getting it, just makes it less likely you’ll get it really bad
I know. Just thinking about the optics though of the Health Secretary getting it pre-freedom day.
Opening up everything just seems really irresponsible when we've got Royal London reopening their covid overflow ITU, QE in birmingham cancelling surgeries and the north east having a huge surge. And 47% of the population who are not yet double jabbed are being thrust into danger.
Yep can't argue with that
Thoughts and prayers.
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No chance that imbecile misses his photo-op for freedom day
Surely there’s no possible way that he doesn’t get pinged by the app, unless the meeting was for less than 15 minutes.
He uninstalled it when he realised he wouldn't need it to go to the pub.
That's assuming he has the app!
Just to correct myself, the current isolation rules remain in place next week; they change on August 16th.
With hospitalisations rising, ICU usage is rising as well. Whereas hospitalisations numbers were dominated by the over 70s in previous waves, there are proportionately more under 50s this time round. While most of this group recover quickly, the ones who get worse are candidates for ICU places (whereas the older ones were often too frail for that kind of treatment)
A cautionary note on what ICU usage for covid patients means, and how it eats into capacity needed for other kinds of urgent treatment.
A cautionary note on what ICU usage for covid patients means, and how it eats into capacity needed for other kinds of urgent treatment.
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Those are median lengths of stay too. There’s a long tail with covid patients, some of them blocking ITU beds for months at a time.
This delta variant is wreaking havoc in indonesia. Almost all or my relatives family have people infected.
My wife and my inlaw. My japanese neighbor and his staff.
50k cases per day for the past week alone and it's not gonna get better soon.
feck what your government say. Stay at home if you can folks. Shore up the mask. Delta variant is more contagious. Even if there's no restriction dont think it's safe
My wife and my inlaw. My japanese neighbor and his staff.
50k cases per day for the past week alone and it's not gonna get better soon.
feck what your government say. Stay at home if you can folks. Shore up the mask. Delta variant is more contagious. Even if there's no restriction dont think it's safe
Surely he couldn’t use that as an excuse as to why he wouldn’t be isolating though.
Think he will be hiding from Gary Neville going by twitter today
McDonalds staff wouldn't let me in yesterday unless I scanned the QC code, I told them I don't have the app, they kinda moaned a little and then just let me in anyhow.
Whole thing is a farce and the app shut down some of the tube today for pinging control staff to isolate
Whole thing is a farce and the app shut down some of the tube today for pinging control staff to isolate
I'm guessing without the app you'd only self isolate if contacted by Test and Trace (who I imagine are only contacting a small % of contacts given the case load)?
I feel like if Johnson isn’t going to isolate, after being in direct, indoor (assumption) contact with someone confirmed positive…we might as well pack in any form of isolation. The public are barely listening now.
Everything on the news today about Covid, it’s really looking grim.
CTRL + F on this page for "Coronavirus waves compared"
It's re-assuring to see how this wave compares to others - and suggests the vaccine is keeping deaths way below where they would be even with the current lack of restrictions we have in place.
In short, according to the Guardian at the same stage of the previous wave we were at about 200 deaths per day despite having higher cases.
Not quite sure how they've plotted the data, but using my own rudimentary comparison of a 14 day lag between cases and deaths, we should be averaging about 350+ deaths a day using wave #2 as a guide, and 550+ deaths a day if we were to use wave #3. We're currently averaging about 40.
If my method makes any sense whatsoever, then I'd expect us to be averaging about 100 deaths per day in two weeks time.
Of course the big variables here are winter vs. summer, and to what extent the geographic clusters are overwhelming ICU units.
I think the bigger problem would be if people are looking to politicians to set an example.
Very true
I’m sure they’re not, but lots will use any excuse they can to reinforce their view that they don’t need to isolate, wear masks etc etc.Has Johnson said he isn't going to isolate, or is this just being assumed for some reason? I know he's a tosser but it's not right to make stuff up either.
Thank you very for your great post Sir. Greatly appreciated.Excess deaths have historical analysis built into it. They tell you how many more deaths there have been vs the historical 5-year average in that country, or what they term "expected deaths". So if the difference between expected deaths and actual deaths is 0 then it tells you the same number of people died as would be expected based on historical trends. The % change shown in the first chart adds an additional layer on top that normalises the data within each country, so you can compare how significantly things have changed across all countries in a single view. Those two data transformations are the only way you can meaningfully compare across countries and over time in a single view. That's not showing less data or presenting a narrow view on things, it's providing more information.
For example this tells you that in a single week in mid-April 2020 in the UK there were 24,691 deaths from all causes, whereas in the previous 5 years on the same week, there was an average of 11,825 deaths. In other words there were more than twice as many deaths as you'd expect, all things being equal. The graphic shows you that this was the biggest deviation from excess deaths in Britain, with all of the seasonal effects stripped away, and the degree of excess deaths was more significant than anything experienced in Portugal (+ 75%, or an extra 2000 deaths in Jan this year) but not as bad as Spain at its worst (+ 158%, or an extra 13k deaths in April last year). Comparing the absolute numbers would be difficult to do within a single country across those kinds of timeframes, and completely impossible across countries with varying populations and mortality rates. It's a really effective way for cross-country, temporal analysis at that level of precision.
I agree the approach is very rich, refined and rich in terms of level of details
What possible reason could people have for assuming he will fail to do the right thing? If there’s anyone due the benefit of the doubt, their name isn’t Boris Johnson.
I think people are perfectly within their rights to consider the damage of the scenario where he does the wrong thing.
That's answered my question thanks, it is an assumption.
I don't see how he could justify not isolating personally, but I daresay we'll find out tomorrow, lots of politician-interviewing takes place on Sunday mornings.
Pretty stressed out here at the moment. We've got our wedding booked in for 22nd August. We started planning this in April 2019, thinking that we'd have loads of time to sort things out and the more time the better. Then, Covid hit.
Looking at these rising numbers is making us both nervous whether or not restrictions will come into place in a month's time. To make things even more confusing, my wife-to-be is Belgian with her entire family living over there. The original plan (pre-Covid) was to have them come over and celebrate the day with us...because generally you'd expect the bride's family to be there on the day. Well, just over a month to go and we're at that stage where we need to start submitting numbers. Honestly, how likely do we think it will be for Belgian residents to come to the UK and not have to quarantine on arrival and then leave and not have to quarantine back home? Everyone coming over (bar a few kids under 5) will be double vaccinated. I keep hearing talk about the EU and UK having reciprocal arrangements in place soon with regards to recognising each other's vaccine status, but there hasn't been word on this for weeks.
We can't postpone either. We enquired about it in January (to stop this exact situation from happening) and our venue told us no. I know that we should be grateful that we've had our vaccines and everyone around us is safe, but it doesn't stop us stressing over a very real problem for us. We've put years of savings into this...
Looking at these rising numbers is making us both nervous whether or not restrictions will come into place in a month's time. To make things even more confusing, my wife-to-be is Belgian with her entire family living over there. The original plan (pre-Covid) was to have them come over and celebrate the day with us...because generally you'd expect the bride's family to be there on the day. Well, just over a month to go and we're at that stage where we need to start submitting numbers. Honestly, how likely do we think it will be for Belgian residents to come to the UK and not have to quarantine on arrival and then leave and not have to quarantine back home? Everyone coming over (bar a few kids under 5) will be double vaccinated. I keep hearing talk about the EU and UK having reciprocal arrangements in place soon with regards to recognising each other's vaccine status, but there hasn't been word on this for weeks.
We can't postpone either. We enquired about it in January (to stop this exact situation from happening) and our venue told us no. I know that we should be grateful that we've had our vaccines and everyone around us is safe, but it doesn't stop us stressing over a very real problem for us. We've put years of savings into this...
Nice. We are at about 43% and it won’t climb any higher as the remaining 57% mostly do not believe the virus exist/think vaccine is far more dangerous. Our government has also said they will not try to make any restrictions aimed at unvaccinated like France (mostly because their voters are largely in that group) so that incentive is also gone. I’m preparing for a tough Autumn, fortunately all my close relatives and friends are fully vaccinated already. Part of me really wants the virus to hit the idiots, who are not getting vaccines because they reckon they are amazingly smart and have discovered the conspiracy, very hard. Unfortunately this is not how it works.
So this is primarily a technical issue right now, and there is a working group setup to fix it. The UK needs to be able to access the data behind the EU QR code but GDPR makes it difficult. It could be done in a few weeks, however that doesn't account for the politicians getting involved as they are now beginning to do, slapping random restrictions on countries.
I'm in a similar position to you. My UK based brother in law is getting married in Spain in just over a month. I can go just fine as I live in Italy. I'm starting to think I might be the only one there.
Fingers crossed for Sajid.
Please god I'm begging... you've done us dirty for 18 months now... just to give us a little hope.
Please god I'm begging... you've done us dirty for 18 months now... just to give us a little hope.
And I’d say man up. Seriously people dodging a bit of the side effects, imagine how you’d feel if you got the actual virus? Or you gave it to a friend or relative?
You’re telling that like a good story
Yup, that's true! It's for the best to get it done. Feels like this is what it's going to be like for the foreseeable future- learning to live with the virus and getting boosters for different variants.