SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[The Cat]

I'm on day 8 here and things are easing up am much more awake and not so tired. Got a little cough now which is a bit of a nuisance that's all.

All I can say is fortunately the vaccine has helped keep me safe from the worst of it please get it if you have any doubts.

 

[Volumiza]

I'm on day 8 here and things are easing up am much more awake and not so tired. Got a little cough now which is a bit of a nuisance that's all.

All I can say is fortunately the vaccine has helped keep me safe from the worst of it please get it if you have any doubts.

Glad things sound like they're heading the right way.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

I'm not against more restrictions if that's what needs to be done. I'm just wondering what is next on the horizon to help against this. I can't really think of anything?

People still can’t deal with the inevitability of it all.
It’s either, save the outrageous sums of money lockdowns cost and spend it instead on hospitals, doctors and nurses etc, and crack on, else keep doing this shite forever, swimming against the tide.
It takes how many months just to vaccinate 80-90% of adults in a country? Then the protection varies depending on the individual so some are still protected, whilst other aren’t and rich countries are boosting whilst poorer haven’t had enough first dose; there’s simply never going to be a single moment in time when 95-100% of the World is all vaccinated at the same point.
This is here to stay, and needs to be lived with, forever. Restrictions forever sounds like a wank way to live.

 

[The Cat]

Glad things sound like they're heading the right way.

Ty buddy.

 

[Massive Spanner]

So with Ireland (and presumably other countries too) talking about bringing back some measures, despite having a massive percentage of the population vaccinated, it makes me wonder what more we can do to stop this? In previous lockdowns, it was waiting for a vaccine to be produced and then it was waiting for said vaccine to be given to enough people, but now what is it? What's the next thing that we need to change to bring the numbers down long-term (without lockdowns)?

I'm not against more restrictions if that's what needs to be done. I'm just wondering what is next on the horizon to help against this. I can't really think of anything?

It'll always be about not overwhelming the health service. It doesn't seem likely it'll happen this time due to our vaccination rates. Hospital and ICU numbers are still far lower than January, so any restrictions put in place should be far less disruptive. Bringing back WFH was always a logical approach, for example. I also think the government hedged all their bets on the vaccine being a silver bullet with their extremely cautious approach to reopening until we got high enough rates and now that it looks like it's not quite as effective as they hoped, they will probably try to power through and keep the economy functioning as opposed to avoiding any sort of strain on the health system or excess deaths, basically find a reasonable middle ground.

They really need to fecking embrace antigen testing though, the eejits.

 

[golden_blunder]

@Pogue Mahone

my own thoughts on ireland is that the antivirus wanes at 6 months, quicker than expected. Now with close contacts being done away with in schools, public transport being rammed with people, people being forced to come back into offices when the pandemic is clearly taking off again and people thinking 2 vaccines is enough, we’ve reached a point where the big wigs are scratching their heads. For me, boosters should have been rolled out at 6 months automatically to everyone that got vaxxed. Now I know parents at school who aren’t going to take a booster because they are pissed off with pubs being closed at midnight. I was told that by someone today, the same parent took her child to a leisure facility when they were waiting on a Covid result. The power is in the general publics hands but most are showing a lack of common sense.

on a work related point, I’m job hunting now, remote only. I’ve noticed that there is more more in office jobs and less remote now. I got turned down recently for managing a call centre because I refused to work only in the call centre. A job I’ve done remotely without any issues at all.

it’s like business and individuals have decided it doesn’t exist anymore. I’d like to see a public forum between business and health officials plus government. We need legislation to not force people into city centres If they don’t want too and bring in those who do

 

[sullydnl]

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[Pogue Mahone]

@Pogue Mahone

my own thoughts on ireland is that the antivirus wanes at 6 months, quicker than expected. Now with close contacts being done away with in schools, public transport being rammed with people, people being forced to come back into offices when the pandemic is clearly taking off again and people thinking 2 vaccines is enough, we’ve reached a point where the big wigs are scratching their heads. For me, boosters should have been rolled out at 6 months automatically to everyone that got vaxxed. Now I know parents at school who aren’t going to take a booster because they are pissed off with pubs being closed at midnight. I was told that by someone today, the same parent took her child to a leisure facility when they were waiting on a Covid result. The power is in the general publics hands but most are showing a lack of common sense.

on a work related point, I’m job hunting now, remote only. I’ve noticed that there is more more in office jobs and less remote now. I got turned down recently for managing a call centre because I refused to work only in the call centre. A job I’ve done remotely without any issues at all.

it’s like business and individuals have decided it doesn’t exist anymore. I’d like to see a public forum between business and health officials plus government. We need legislation to not force people into city centres If they don’t want too and bring in those who do

I definitely think we should be firing out boosters asap. We’re more or less on track for that now though.

80+ and younger clinically vulnerable done. 70+ being down this week. And so on. I got my second jab at the end of June so wouldn’t be due a booster until late December.

I am a bit worried about how we can roll out boosters as quickly as the original jabs with so many vaccine centres closed (Aviva now being used for rugby, football etc) If we’re to hit the 6 months post second jab target for everyone we need to roll out the boosters as quickly as we did the original vaccines. Which will be difficult.

The really bad cock up with boosters already was leaving it so long to boost HCWs. I’ve a load of doctor friends that went down with covid the week before they were (finally) due to get boosted, 7 or 8 months after their first course. Needless to say they’re fecking hopping mad.

 

[Cait Sith]

Here in Germany, they closed down 5000 ICU beds since last year. Now we have "code red" and additional measurements (testing required to enter certain places even when vaccinated) based on 3000 ICU covid patients in a rich 83 million country. The absurdity. Of course the pandemic will never end when 350 Covid patients in 18 million Nordrhein-Westfalen apparently collapse the healthcare system.

 

[golden_blunder]

I definitely think we should be firing out boosters asap. We’re more or less on track for that now though.

80+ and younger clinically vulnerable done. 70+ being down this week. And so on. I got my second jab at the end of June so wouldn’t be due a booster until late December.

I am a bit worried about how we can roll out boosters as quickly as the original jabs with so many vaccine centres closed (Aviva now being used for rugby, football etc) If we’re to hit the 6 months post second jab target for everyone we need to roll out the boosters as quickly as we did the original vaccines. Which will be difficult.

The really bad cock up with boosters already was leaving it so long to boost HCWs. I’ve a load of doctor friends that went down with covid the week before they were (finally) due to get boosted, 7 or 8 months after their first course. Needless to say they’re fecking hopping mad.

Then the next question will be how long are boosters effective?

we’re in our 7th month now after 2nd vax so I’m curious how long it will take.

and yeah, boosters for HCWs shouldve been done and dusted weeks ago. No brainer

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Then the next question will be how long are boosters effective?

we’re in our 7th month now after 2nd vax so I’m curious how long it will take.

and yeah, boosters for HCWs shouldve been done and dusted weeks ago. No brainer

Hopefully a very long time. They’ve been proven to generate a much more robust immune response than the second dose anyway. As @jojojo posted in a tweet above. Even pushing out the second dose by a few weeks (which they did in the UK/Canada) delays waning, so waiting a full 6 months for a booster could give a very long duration of action.

There are other vaccines which need boosters a long time apart. Whooping cough vaccine (along with tetanus/diptheria) is given as a few doses close together to babies, then again aged 5-6 and again aged 12-13 and that’s it for the rest of your life.

 

[christy87]

They should of reopened the country much earlier in August or September, waiting to it actually starts getting cold and when the vaccines start to wane was always going to be a clusterfeck. If you have the people a break from the restrictions like the UK has it would be more easier to take more restrictions.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

They should of reopened the country much earlier in August or September, waiting to it actually starts getting cold and when the vaccines start to wane was always going to be a clusterfeck. If you have the people a break from the restrictions like the UK has it would be more easier to take more restrictions.

I don’t think that’s true. Going backwards sucks just as bad no matter how long the “freedom” beforehand lasts. If anything it would be worse the longer and more used you’ve got to living without any restrictions.

The midnight curfew is a bad idea though. Just pushes everyone onto the streets at the same time. Plus clubs and late night bars have put a lot of effort into setting up procedures around contact tracing and vaccine cert checks. They’ll be a much safer environment than the alternative, which is thousands of house parties.

 

[golden_blunder]

Hopefully a very long time. They’ve been proven to generate a much more robust immune response than the second dose anyway. As @jojojo posted in a tweet above. Even pushing out the second dose by a few weeks (which they did in the UK/Canada) delays waning, so waiting a full 6 months for a booster could give a very long duration of action.

There are other vaccines which need boosters a long time apart. Whooping cough vaccine (along with tetanus/diptheria) is given as a few doses close together to babies, then again aged 5-6 and again aged 12-13 and that’s it for the rest of your life.

Well fingers crossed we’re talking about boosters every few years at worst

 

[F-Red]

I don’t think that’s true. Going backwards sucks just as bad no matter how long the “freedom” beforehand lasts. If anything it would be worse the longer and more used you’ve got to living without any restrictions.

The midnight curfew is a bad idea though. Just pushes everyone onto the streets at the same time. Plus clubs and late night bars have put a lot of effort into setting up procedures around contact tracing and vaccine cert checks. They’ll be a much safer environment than the alternative, which is thousands of house parties.

Honestly, the border could start doing that. I was surprised that I had more checks in bars than I did coming across on the plane.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Honestly, the border could start doing that. I was surprised that I had more checks in bars than I did coming across on the plane.

The border is basically non-existent. Nobody even checked my ID the last time I got off a plane at Heathrow, never mind a vaccine cert. For better or worse, the Uk and Ireland is a single region when it comes to this pandemic.

 

[Massive Spanner]

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I mean, our health service being shite is hardly a revelation.

 

[jojojo]

A couple of things on boosters.

Looking at early data from the UK rollout. Summary: anyone who's eligible should get one!

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Also, first studies from Israel on how long the boosters work for are looking encouraging:

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[Pogue Mahone]

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Obviously The Sun can go feck itself but this is a belter of a headline tbf.

 

[11101]

Then the next question will be how long are boosters effective?

we’re in our 7th month now after 2nd vax so I’m curious how long it will take.

and yeah, boosters for HCWs shouldve been done and dusted weeks ago. No brainer

The regional governor here has been saying they think the booster could last for 4 to 5 years.

https://www.ilgiorno.it/cronaca/quarta-ondata-covid-1.7014961

 

[jojojo]

They should of reopened the country much earlier in August or September, waiting to it actually starts getting cold and when the vaccines start to wane was always going to be a clusterfeck. If you have the people a break from the restrictions like the UK has it would be more easier to take more restrictions.

The UK effectively reopened in May, there were some controls until July but they didn't have a big impact on household mixing and mobility.

In doing that, it took a gamble and it has cost lives. I suspect we could have done better - for example, if we'd given vaccines to the over 12s earlier and done that part of the rollout faster - but we could have done worse, and personally I sympathised with the JCVI reasoning on that. Vaccine waning was faster than the UK anticipated - so booster ramp-up and detailed preparations for the most vulnerable groups were a bit late too.

If the boosters go out quickly enough, if the uptake is high enough, and they prove to be as effective as we hope, then basically the UK will rumble through winter now. Case rates will stay high (though should start falling in the vaccinated and in some areas where past infection levels are high) but if the vaccines reduce hospitalisations and deaths - I doubt anyone will care.

For Ireland and the rest of Europe, it may be too late for that UK style gamble, it may already have been too late in September - given that Ireland had lower rates of past infection. The risk now is that you'll end up with your highest case rates at the worst time - that they'll peak in the run up to Christmas and hospitals will be packed even before the flu season kicks in.

 

[golden_blunder]

The regional governor here has been saying they think the booster could last for 4 to 5 years.

https://www.ilgiorno.it/cronaca/quarta-ondata-covid-1.7014961

Wow! That would be amazing if it holds true

 

[Massive Spanner]

For Ireland and the rest of Europe, it may be too late for that UK style gamble, it may already have been too late in September - given that Ireland had lower rates of past infection. The risk now is that you'll end up with your highest case rates at the worst time - that they'll peak in the run up to Christmas and hospitals will be packed even before the flu season kicks in.

@Pogue Mahone told me pretty much the opposite of that when I was clamouring for us to open up more over the summer before the schools went back and the weather got colder. I'm interested to hear what he thinks about this.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

@Pogue Mahone told me pretty much the opposite of that when I was clamouring for us to open up more over the summer before the schools went back and the weather got colder. I'm interested to hear what he thinks about this.

The first and most obvious difference is that the Uk was a lot more advanced in vaccine roll-out than we were earlier in the summer.

I also think the Uk got “lucky” by having enormous prior waves which gave a reasonable baseline immunity from prior exposure in the unvaccinated. Much more so than Ireland. It also helped them that the larger gap between vaccine doses caused immunity to wane a little slower.

Finally, as we discussed (literally yesterday!) Ireland has a track record of explosive growth (more explosive than the UK, even) whenever we ease restrictions. Hence the understandable desire to be cautious each and every time we take the brakes off.

 

[jojojo]

@Pogue Mahone told me pretty much the opposite of that when I was clamouring for us to open up more over the summer before the schools went back and the weather got colder. I'm interested to hear what he thinks about this.

I think he knows as well as anyone the kind of gamble that the UK took. Like everyone else he can also see what it's already cost - in terms of deaths and hospitalisations.

The key thing though is that no one knows what's going to work until we're through it - and the fairest time to look at the responses will be after we've got through the winter. A lot of people are looking at the UK with horror - 1000 deaths per week - and the NHS is massively overloaded with covid and backlogged demand. A lot of the stuff about trying to do better though is about deciding what are you willing to accept and for how long.

 

[Massive Spanner]

The first and most obvious difference is that the Uk was a lot more advanced in vaccine roll-out than we were earlier in the summer.

I also think the Uk got “lucky” by having enormous prior waves which gave a reasonable baseline immunity from prior exposure in the unvaccinated. Much more so than Ireland. It also helped them that the larger gap between vaccine doses caused immunity to wane a little slower.

Finally, as we discussed (literally yesterday!) Ireland has a track record of explosive growth (more explosive than the UK, even) whenever we ease restrictions. Hence the understandable desire to be cautious each and every time we take the brakes off.

Sure but it always seemed obvious to me that September/October was the worst time to fully ease restrictions because of schools reopening and coming into the winter when the HSE is usually overwhelmed anyway. Couldn't they have started with stuff like back to office, increasing public transport etc sooner than that? Our vaccine rollout was already in a pretty good place by July. It seems like they were setting themselves up for the perfect storm by easing most major restrictions in the same month going into winter.

 

[Brwned]

The regional governor here has been saying they think the booster could last for 4 to 5 years.

https://www.ilgiorno.it/cronaca/quarta-ondata-covid-1.7014961

Given we don't have the historical data, I guess this is just an extrapolation from antibody levels i.e. x many antibodies from dose 2 lasted 6 months, so 10x could last 10 times as long? Seems a bit out there for a governor to be saying that when the medical experts haven't felt comfortable making such predictions!

 

[11101]

Given we don't have the historical data, I guess this is just an extrapolation from antibody levels i.e. x many antibodies from dose 2 lasted 6 months, so 10x could last 10 times as long? Seems a bit out there for a governor to be saying that when the medical experts haven't felt comfortable making such predictions!

He's not one to run his mouth so he will have been told that by the medical experts, but yes it will all be assumptions at this stage. Impossible to know for sure when the booster will drop off until it starts to happen.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Given we don't have the historical data, I guess this is just an extrapolation from antibody levels i.e. x many antibodies from dose 2 lasted 6 months, so 10x could last 10 times as long? Seems a bit out there for a governor to be saying that when the medical experts haven't felt comfortable making such predictions!

Yeah, I don’t think any ID physicians/immunologists would make such a bold claim. Early data does look extremely encouraging though. Just like with the first wave of waning, Israel will be the canary in the coalmine on this one.

 

[jojojo]

Given we don't have the historical data, I guess this is just an extrapolation from antibody levels i.e. x many antibodies from dose 2 lasted 6 months, so 10x could last 10 times as long? Seems a bit out there for a governor to be saying that when the medical experts haven't felt comfortable making such predictions!

Israel have early data suggesting that it should last at least 9 months. That's based on lab work and extrapolations of course. There's also a suggestion that we're not just seeing higher antibody levels we're also seeing more varied ones and higher T and B cell responses. Hopeful signs, but no one will really know for a while.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Sure but it always seemed obvious to me that September/October was the worst time to fully ease restrictions because of schools reopening and coming into the winter when the HSE is usually overwhelmed anyway. Couldn't they have started with stuff like back to office, increasing public transport etc sooner than that? Our vaccine rollout was already in a pretty good place by July. It seems like they were setting themselves up for the perfect storm by easing most major restrictions in the same month going into winter.

It’s all ifs, buts or maybes.

I don’t think weather is a huge factor in what’s happening now. It’s been freakishly mild and dry over the last month. There’s only so many beer gardens and when pubs and restaurants open, they’re going to fill up no matter what month it is. If we’d gone into a similar period of crazy growth like we’re going through now in a much less vaccinated population (I’m in my 40s and wasn’t vaccinated until July; we didn’t catch up to UK vaccination levels until August) then we could have ended up in even deeper shit than we are now.

 

[Massive Spanner]

It’s all ifs, buts or maybes.

I don’t think weather is a huge factor in what’s happening now. It’s been freakishly mild and dry over the last month. There’s only so many beer gardens and when pubs and restaurants open, they’re going to fill up no matter what month it is. If we’d gone into a similar period of crazy growth like we’re going through now in a much less vaccinated population (I’m in my 40s and wasn’t vaccinated until July; we didn’t catch up to UK vaccination levels until August) then we could have ended up in even deeper shit than we are now.

Meh, we could've ended up in deep shit earlier either and had more time to lockdown before Christmas. We might all be sitting at home drinking cans again at this rate!

 

[jojojo]

It’s all ifs, buts or maybes.

I don’t think weather is a huge factor in what’s happening now. It’s been freakishly mild and dry over the last month. There’s only so many beer gardens and when pubs and restaurants open, they’re going to fill up no matter what month it is. If we’d gone into a similar period of crazy growth like we’re going through now in a much less vaccinated population (I’m in my 40s and wasn’t vaccinated until July; we didn’t catch up to UK vaccination levels until August) then we could have ended up in even deeper shit than we are now.

Actually Ireland is one of the countries where case rates are tracking temperature changes more or less exactly! Not just a behavioural thing of course.

There's a thread full of graphs doing the rounds on Twitter. Basically to understand the graphs you have to know that a rising blue (temperature) line means a falling temperature. He's then applied a scale factor so that case numbers and temperature can appear on the same chart...

One for the stats and data vis fans

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[Brwned]

Israel have early data suggesting that it should last at least 9 months. That's based on lab work and extrapolations of course. There's also a suggestion that we're not just seeing higher antibody levels we're also seeing more varied ones and higher T and B cell responses. Hopeful signs, but no one will really know for a while.

Ooh, good news about the T-cells and B-cells! Have they teased out that relationship any further yet? They knew antibodies were an imperfect proxy for protection and their supporting cast likely play a role in longer-term responses, but at that point they didn't have much data to go beyond that. Any new news?

 

[FootballHQ]

So with Ireland (and presumably other countries too) talking about bringing back some measures, despite having a massive percentage of the population vaccinated, it makes me wonder what more we can do to stop this? In previous lockdowns, it was waiting for a vaccine to be produced and then it was waiting for said vaccine to be given to enough people, but now what is it? What's the next thing that we need to change to bring the numbers down long-term (without lockdowns)?

I'm not against more restrictions if that's what needs to be done. I'm just wondering what is next on the horizon to help against this. I can't really think of anything?

Main hope now is surely it will fizzle out eventually to be just another virus that can still kill but not in the lethal ways of last 18 months.

Read the other day scientists were briefing that future great granchildren (if everyone isn't already dead due to climate change) will be getting the virus so it really isn't going to be eradicated anytime soon.

Seems the plan eventually to try to get cases down to below 20k in future winter periods so then death figures are similar to other diseases.

That's the reality really unless there's some other secret masterplan.

 

[jojojo]

Ooh, good news about the T-cells and B-cells! Have they teased out that relationship any further yet? They knew antibodies were an imperfect proxy for protection and their supporting cast likely play a role in longer-term responses, but at that point they didn't have much data to go beyond that. Any new news?

Nothing published (not even as a preprint) I don't think, just early press release type chatter at the moment. But that's also how we first heard stuff on waning in general.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Actually Ireland is one of the countries where case rates are tracking temperature changes more or less exactly! Not just a behavioural thing of course.

There's a thread full of graphs doing the rounds on Twitter. Basically to understand the graphs you have to know that a rising blue (temperature) line means a falling temperature. He's then applied a scale factor so that case numbers and temperature can appear on the same chart...

One for the stats and data vis fans

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Correlation, sure, but causation?

Even if we focus on the weather alone (ignoring trends over time regarding vaccine waning, restrictions easing, offices and pubs filling up etc etc) wind and rain is much more likely to drive people indoors then a few degrees drop in temperature.

It’s actually been one of the nicest autumns in Ireland I can remember. Very little wind and rain and freakishly mild. We haven’t even had our first frost yet. Which is a worry all in itself but one for the global warming thread!

 

[Adamsk7]

Hopefully they’ll go down to my age group for boosters - I’m 39 in a couple of months so it’ll probably be just my luck that they say “nah under 40’s are rock solid on their immune system - no booster for you mate!”

 

[Champ]

Tested positive Monday, been feeling absolutely awful since Monday morning.
My legs have never felt as painful as they do at the moment.
I'm double jabbed as well, would hate to know how I'd have felt without a vaccine.

Whole household has been laid low since last week.

 

[Rektsanwalt]

Tested positive Monday, been feeling absolutely awful since Monday morning.
My legs have never felt as painful as they do at the moment.
I'm double jabbed as well, would hate to know how I'd have felt without a vaccine.

Whole household has been laid low since last week.

Wishing you a speedy recovery!