SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[FootballHQ]

Surely this 80-100k figure of frontline NHS staff not even having first jab can't be true?

I mean they've had first hand accounts of the grave danger of covid last 18 months so just can't believe the figure is that high while ordinary man or woman on the street is getting castigated for refusing to be vaccinated.

Guess they all have their own reasons but just can't believe it.

 

[prateik]

Some Delta variants are attracting attention, but Delta is already so infectious that the distinctions are currently only of interest to the virologists.

The UK has had high case rates for months, but most cases have been in the U18s. Even so, in October, we were seeing 1000/week deaths. Cases are now falling in the UK and boosters (10m done so far) may be just starting to impact hospitalisations, which should mean falling death rates in a couple of weeks time.

Across Europe, cases have been rising, very fast in some countries. In northern Europe cases are going up, and places like Belgium, Ireland, Germany now have similar case rates to the UK. Basically, like the UK, they're trying to move to thinking of covid as "endemic" - a kind of covid risk/case rate that they're willing to live with, to get back to normal life. It's not an easy journey though and some may try to pause things until more vaccine boosters etc have been given.

Cases rates in France, Spain, Italy currently remain low.

Eastern Europe is experiencing high case rates and with relatively low vaccine rates in most of the countries, their highest ever covid death rates and hospitalisations.

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Thanks for this.. Was hoping it would die away.. hopefully vaccines are easily available everywhere soon... uptake might be a problem, but not even having the option must be awful.

 

[Mike Smalling]

So in Denmark we are back at same infection numbers from December/January of last winter, and hospital admissions of mid February - and only trending one way of course. And that is with a 77% vaccination rate of the entire population, so significantly higher for adults. Gotta admit that it has gone much faster than I expected.

Will definitely be interesting to see how far the government goes in terms of restrictions. My feeling is that the support for tough restrictions are much, much lower this year. There are already talks of the hospitals being under pressure again, so will be a fine balance. Hopefully our dictator makes the right call.

 

[Stack]

So in Denmark we are back at same infection numbers from December/January of last winter, and hospital admissions of mid February - and only trending one way of course. And that is with a 77% vaccination rate of the entire population, so significantly higher for adults. Gotta admit that it has gone much faster than I expected.

Will definitely be interesting to see how far the government goes in terms of restrictions. My feeling is that the support for tough restrictions are much, much lower this year. There are already talks of the hospitals being under pressure again, so will be a fine balance. Hopefully our dictator makes the right call.

77% of the entire population is a pretty impressive number. This thing is just relentless, it feels like its here to stay for a number of years.

 

[LARulz]

Anyone flown/flying to the US soon? I am flying to NY in late November and this testing thing is confusing me. It just says viral so is antigen/lateral flow test KO or is it just better to have a PCR to be better safe than sorry?

 

[jojojo]

Surely this 80-100k figure of frontline NHS staff not even having first jab can't be true?

I mean they've had first hand accounts of the grave danger of covid last 18 months so just can't believe the figure is that high while ordinary man or woman on the street is getting castigated for refusing to be vaccinated.

Guess they all have their own reasons but just can't believe it.

I think we're seeing some mixed figures in the government messaging. NHS has over a million employees and a vaccination rate somewhere around 92%. It's not clear how many of the 100k not fully vaxxed are "patient facing" but it's undoubtedly the case that many will be. The 100k probably includes some who have medical exemptions as well.

In some hospitals take-up is over 95%, in others it's below 85%. In general the ones least likely to be vaxxed are young women who are pregnant, or are new mums, or trying to get pregnant - that's a pattern across the country generally. Chances are they will all need individual counselling. I doubt many are staff working on Covid wards, or if they are then there's a good chance they've already had covid.

The "already had covid - so don't need the vaccine" idea is a big thing, particularly for younger staff. Acknowledging that, by offering a customised approach - like if you've got antibodies you only need one dose or whatever might help. It certainly might help convince them they're being listened to.

There's also been lower take-up across the country and across age groups amongst black staff and some other minority groups. Again that will need a bit more than a sledgehammer approach - given that's partly driven by distrust in authority.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

In general the ones least likely to be vaxxed are young women who are pregnant, or are new mums, or trying to get pregnant - that's a pattern across the country generally. liven by distrust in authority.

It’s a really worrying pattern. In Ireland we have 35 pregnant women currently in ICU with covid. All of them un-vaccinated. Talking to friends who are treating them they say it’s an absolutely horrendous illness to manage in a pregnant person.

 

[Anustart89]

It’s a really worrying pattern. In Ireland we have 35 pregnant women currently in ICU with covid. All of them un-vaccinated. Talking to friends who are treating them they say it’s an absolutely horrendous illness to manage in a pregnant person.

Yeah, good luck safely proning a pregnant woman.

 

[Stack]

Over the last year or so I have checked in on this guys videos and found them helpful. This recent one I was hoping some of the more clear headed in here could have a peek at and share some thoughts. Ive sat in the Ivermectin is not the answer camp for a while, does this video in any way impact that belief?

 

[McGrathsipan]

It’s a really worrying pattern. In Ireland we have 35 pregnant women currently in ICU with covid. All of them un-vaccinated. Talking to friends who are treating them they say it’s an absolutely horrendous illness to manage in a pregnant person.

Is there a reason pregnant women aren't getting vaccinated?
My best mate had awful trouble getting advice for his pregnant wife

 

[Wibble]

Over the last year or so I have checked in on this guys videos and found them helpful. This recent one I was hoping some of the more clear headed in here could have a peek at and share some thoughts. Ive sat in the Ivermectin is not the answer camp for a while, does this video in any way impact that belief?

The issue is that the early studies used to show that Ivermectin helped were very poor or faked/so deeply flawed as to be meaningless. There is some evidence that it might reduce disease mortality such as that described in the video. I believe proper double blind trials have now started so we may soon know if there is a significant benefit in repurposing the drug.

 

[Wibble]

NSW passed 90% of adults fully vaxxed and close to 95% single jabbed yesterday.

Partly the reason for this generally good news.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...-case-numbers-have-stayed-low-since-reopening

12 to 15 year olds are catching up fast (over 80% have had the first shot) and over 5s should be able to be vaxxed very soon.

We need the other states to get their vax rates up now to varying degrees.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

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We’re entering a really interesting period now where people have radically different concepts of risk. This bloke was double vaccinated, as was his wife and when he caught covid he moved out of home. Going to be very hard to get back to anything approaching normality so long as this level of fear is widespread.

 

[GuyfromAustria]

Everyday a new all-time high of infections, another awful winter or even a fecking lockdown on the horizon.
This country is unbelievably stupid.

 

[Pexbo]

Everyday a new all-time high of infections, another awful winter or even a fecking lockdown on the horizon.
This country is unbelievably stupid.

Where are you from?

 

[BootsyCollins]

Where are you from?

 

[GuyfromAustria]

Where are you from?

Top of the table!

 

[Balljy]

Top of the table!

Is there any reason why vaccination rates are so low in Austria, Germany etc? It seems like there's quite a big disconnect there between the rest of Europe.

 

[GuyfromAustria]

Is there any reason why vaccination rates are so low in Austria, Germany etc? It seems like there's quite a big disconnect there between the rest of Europe.

Some reasons are listed here:
https://www.thelocal.at/20210903/co...lagging-behind-and-whats-being-done-about-it/

It's ridiculous, really. That far right moron Kickl, who is pictured in the article, held a press conference a few weeks back to show a medical certificate that he is NOT vaccinated, because someone told the outrageous lie that he got a jab.

 

[11101]

Is there a reason pregnant women aren't getting vaccinated?
My best mate had awful trouble getting advice for his pregnant wife

Mixed messaging. Now the vaccines are known to be safe but early on pregnant women were excluded as the effects were not known. My wife is pregnant as are a bunch of our friends. You'd be amazed at the number of GPs who either don't know the advice has changed, or don't trust it. I'm not sure which it is.

 

[jojojo]

Interesting thread from the FT. Basically a reminder that the journey to "living with" covid is a tough one and it's one being handled with varying degrees of success across Europe. Ultimately we may also be looking at a question of what "success" means.

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[Stanley Road]

Highest ever positive cases in NL today, possible lockdown to be announced tomorrow

 

[Brwned]

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Good/detailed thread on what’s going wrong in the UK right now. Makes concerning reading.

Given the surge in Europe despite wide differences in approaches by governments and citizens, it looks like the main thing that went wrong for the UK was vaccinating their population earlier and seeing the effects waring off earlier. All the other behavioural and political differences have very little correlation to how badly countries are suffering, they were just another convenient reason for national one-upmanship.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Given the surge in Europe despite wide differences in approaches by governments and citizens, it looks like the main thing that went wrong for the UK was vaccinating their population earlier and seeing the effects waring off earlier. All the other behavioural and political differences have very little correlation to how badly countries are suffering, they were just another convenient reason for national one-upmanship.

I don’t think you can make that claim at all. Although, interestingly, it looks like the UK is currently seeing the upside for being so bad at controlling the spread of the virus over the last 12 months. So many people have been exposed at this point there’s a huge reserve of immunity independent of the vaccination program. Not herd immunity as such but something close.

 

[Brwned]

I don’t think you can make that claim at all. Although, interestingly, it looks like the UK is currently seeing the upside for being so bad at controlling the spread of the virus over the last 12 months. So many people have been exposed at this point there’s a huge reserve of immunity independent of the vaccination program. Not herd immunity as such but something close.

How else could it be that the thread you posted showed such different behaviours and policies across those countries, yet now they're experiencing such similar outcomes? What you originally drew attention to was a correlation between the UK's bad situation and the UK's bad behaviour. Now those other countries who didn't have the same faults are now experiencing the same outcomes, so surely the opposite correlation now proves the relationship was non-existent in the first place, just clutching at straws to explain something that repeatedly disproves hypotheses, often framed with obvious biases?

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

Anyone flown/flying to the US soon? I am flying to NY in late November and this testing thing is confusing me. It just says viral so is antigen/lateral flow test KO or is it just better to have a PCR to be better safe than sorry?

Antigen/ lateral flow is fine (and cheaper and less likely to show positive)

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

Anyone flown/flying to the US soon? I am flying to NY in late November and this testing thing is confusing me. It just says viral so is antigen/lateral flow test KO or is it just better to have a PCR to be better safe than sorry?

This one I’ve seen recommended

https://breatheassured.com/product/usa-uk-test-package-for-vaccinated-traveller-standard-ba/

 

[Pogue Mahone]

How else could it be that the thread you posted showed such different behaviours and policies across those countries, yet now they're experiencing such similar outcomes? What you originally drew attention to was a correlation between the UK's bad situation and the UK's bad behaviour. Now those other countries who didn't have the same faults are now experiencing the same outcomes, so surely the opposite correlation now proves the relationship was non-existent in the first place, just clutching at straws to explain something that repeatedly disproves hypotheses, often framed with obvious biases?

Different behaviours can cause the same outcome. The European countries really struggling right now have all had worse vaccine uptake rates than the uk.

Plus, as I said most of them have a history of lower case rates so don’t have past exposure filling up the unvaccinated gaps in the same way that we’re seeing in the UK.

You seem to be trying to argue that behaviour (i.e. indoor socialising, returning to offices etc) can’t be considered an important factor in high case rates. This is, of course, nonsense.

 

[F-Red]

Just been in Dublin for the past two days for work, got checked more for covid status in bar's than I did at passport control at the airport. Only thing they checked there was the passport.

 

[Stanley Road]

Given the surge in Europe despite wide differences in approaches by governments and citizens, it looks like the main thing that went wrong for the UK was vaccinating their population earlier and seeing the effects waring off earlier. All the other behavioural and political differences have very little correlation to how badly countries are suffering, they were just another convenient reason for national one-upmanship.

What on earth are you talking about? UK figures falling 18 days in a row, dutch about to impose lockdown, Germany removing entry for non vaxxed. You seem to have some agenda against the UK who are light years ahead of anyone with boosters.

 

[Brwned]

Different behaviours can cause the same outcome. The European countries really struggling right now have all had worse vaccine uptake rates than the uk.

Plus, as I said most of them have a history of lower case rates so don’t have past exposure filling up the unvaccinated gaps in the same way that we’re seeing in the UK.

You seem to be trying to argue that behaviour (i.e. indoor socialising, returning to offices etc) can’t be considered an important factor in high case rates. This is, of course, nonsense.

I'm not saying behaviour doesn't matter. I'm saying the behaviour that you particularly disapproved of that you used to explain the UK's surge no longer seem particularly explanatory given countries are experiencing a very similar surge without the same behaviour. If the UK didn't behave in that way then they might have experienced the same surge, that's the clear the evidence now, so the focus on those particular attitudes and behaviours doesn't seem particularly warranted.

Most of the explanations that have been used to explain why country x is experiencing outcome x have gone on to be disproven months later when country y does something completely different and experienced something very similar. Most of the relationship appears to be explained by confounding variables, time and time again. ##

And it's strange that even though that's happened multiple times, people keep repeating the same narratives. Some people talk about how bad the UK are when they're living in a country that's having a hard time themselves, but at least they're experiencing that hard time in the right way, or something. Other people point fingers at schools because they're getting in the way of the social stuff they care more about. The same themes from the same people over and over again, when evidence supports their theory they pile on, when the evidence contradicts their theory they go silent. And when that contradictory evidence comes up, people just double down.

This thread has just been a place for people to share in despair and point fingers at others to cope. Which is almost cruel, if you take a step back and think about it from the perspective of someone who has different priorities and perspectives than you. It's a good thing to have outlets to process those sorts of things in difficult times, but the way people use this thread as an outlet end up making it more difficult for people who process it very differently. It suffocates them out of the conversation and creates despair where there wasn't. Anyway, I'll jump out again, this can't go anywhere good.

What on earth are you talking about? UK figures falling 18 days in a row, dutch about to impose lockdown, Germany removing entry for non vaxxed. You seem to have some agenda against the UK who are light years ahead of anyone with boosters.

You've read my post as meaning exactly the opposite of what it was saying. I'm really not interested in country x is better than country y because those arguments are only made when the evidence fits the narrative people want to make, and that evidence is almost always temporary. At least in the European comparisons. But I definitely don't have an agenda against the UK. I'm totally fine with the post-vaccine approach. It turned out nowhere near as bad as the doom-mongers were saying, but that's been swept under the rug again.

 

[Wibble]

It will be interesting to see what happens here in Australia once we fully open up. Nationally we have just passed 90% first dose (16+) and NSW is at nearly 95% with 90.6% fully vaccinated. 12+ are catching up fast and 6+ approval is likely very soon. NSW has largely opened up and infections are still dropping from 1500 a day to about 200 a day. There is a bit more vaccine hesitancy in states who are essentially covid free but I suspect most of that is just a lack of urgency so I have hope we will get to 95% nationally.

 

[Stanley Road]

It will be interesting to see what happens here in Australia once we fully open up. Nationally we have just passed 90% first dose (16+) and NSW is at nearly 95% with 90.6% fully vaccinated. 12+ are catching up fast and 6+ approval is likely very soon. NSW has largely opened up and infections are still dropping from 1500 a day to about 200 a day. There is a bit more vaccine hesitancy in states who are essentially covid free but I suspect most of that is just a lack of urgency so I have hope we will get to 95% nationally.

It will be a disaster based on everywhere else thats opened up too soon

 

[Wibble]

It will be a disaster based on everywhere else thats opened up too soon

Maybe but our vax rates are going to be very high so if we can get anywhere near the same % of the 6+ age groups vaxxed I think we have a shout at getting somewhere near herd immunity. Next winter will be the crucial test I suspect.

 

[jojojo]

A few observations on reopening. I'll focus on the UK and Europe, but other countries with similar population age and mobility profiles have similar questions to answer.

The UK has had a R rate bouncing around 1 since May. The ONS antibody survey gives an idea of why.

In the UK, more than 95% of 18-60 year olds now have covid antibodies. If you use the ONS dataset, in May-July when the UK reopened, 99% of over 60s had antibodies and almost all of them were double vaccinated. Unfortunately those groups now need boosters to get them back up there. Around 70% of under 18s have antibodies.

Around 10m boosters have been done since the ONS collected the blood samples used for those graphs.

In the next month or so the UK will probably be as close to numerical herd immunity as we're ever likely to get, but covid will still be around and still killing people - it won't be leaving, it will become endemic.

It's nice to believe that there's an easy route but even Spain with its high vaccine uptake, some continuing mitigations (masks etc) and low case rates, has over 200 deaths/week at the moment.

Is there a right time? Well, in the UK, they effectively decided to try and let it run through the population before Christmas - leaving February onwards for the flu season. If the vaccine waning effect hadn't hit the vulnerable groups in September, maybe we'd have done better. There's still a good chance though, that with the booster program, hospitalisations and deaths will fall soon. Unfortunately some of the most vulnerable (the 80+ in particular) are not getting their boosters quickly enough - partly because GPs etc are trying to catch up with pent up demand on other health issues.

Some countries, including Germany who managed the initial waves very well, will find full reopening even tougher. Which sends us back to question of whether there is such a thing as a best time to reopen. Every country will have its own version of an "exit wave" and will have multiple waves in the future - hopefully smaller in terms of hospitalisations/deaths.

Any country reintroducing controls now is just buying time. I think they need to know (and preferably state) what they're buying time to do.

 

[Samid]

Lockdown in Holland, the Dutch are rioting in the streets. Ugly scenes.

 

[Sarni]

We are at 20k+ cases a day, 250 deaths, hospital admissions are through the roof.

Restrictions in place: none.

 

[Stanley Road]

Lockdown in Holland, the Dutch are rioting in the streets. Ugly scenes.

The next measures will be stronger in 3 weeks.

 

[Balljy]

There's still a good chance though, that with the booster program, hospitalisations and deaths will fall soon.

The booster program is for over 50's and the over 40's group will be hitting 6 months early December (so only a couple of weeks away). My worry is that we've missed again as a country and hospitalisations in the 40's followed by the 30's will rise over Christmas followed by some emergency booster doses.

We shouldn't prioritise boosters over other countries doses obviously, but hospital admissions will increase in lower age groups than 50 soon judging by what we've seen so far.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Austria’s going to go with an “unvaccinated lockdown”. If you’re not vaccinated you can’t leave your home. Even as someone who’s in favour of mandates for people with certain jobs this seems draconian to me.