Got my third dose today, about a month later than I was supposed to but better late than never. Apparently this one hurts a lot more compared to the first two. My arm is already all tingly.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
That's so bad.
Incidentally, a vaccinated friend of mine got it at work, before he knew he had it he went to the pub with a big load of our pals, went to see his parents and such. Not a single one of them caught it off him, not even his girlfriend who he lives with. The vaccines work!
Got mine yesterday. No reaction whatsoever.
Numbers from the latest ONS (random representative sample across the UK) testing. This data was collected the week prior to 23 Oct, so it's already out of date, but it gives you an idea of what's been happening across the UK. Case numbers in 9-15s running at their highest ever, and (their parents?) the 40-somethings getting pulled along behind them, along with the babysitter age grandparent group. Crucially though, cases are falling in the over 80s, which may mean the boosters were already having an effect a week ago.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...es/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...es/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights
Got mine tomorrow.
Wonder why your arm is supposed to hurt more.
With teenagers reaching herd-immunity and boosters, your numbers will be considerably lower in a month's time.
One for the geeks. The UK's stats geeks are having a row - basically Public Heath England v everyone else. When they produce the weekly covid surveillance stats for the UK, they include some basic calculations of hospitalisation rates in the vaccinated by age - this is easy because they know how many people have been vaxxed. They also produce figures for the unvaxxed - this is a much tougher problem because we don't know how many people are unvaxxed, because we don't know how many people live in the UK.
Sounds odd? Well, yes, but it's the same in most countries (hence why some countries have reported vax rates above 100% in some age groups). We know "roughly" how many people live here, but when it comes down to the 70+ group for example we think 97% or more have had the jab. That's when roughly doesn't help. An error in the total population in that age group of +/-1% and we have somewhere between 2 and 4% unvaxxed. In other words any calculation of hospitalisation rates for the unvaxxed are massively error prone. It's known as the denominators problem.
The ONS - who run the population survey, and monitor births, deaths etc give one set of numbers. NIMS, which lists people on GPs lists, gives another one - usually a higher one. That relies on up to date GP records, including old GP registrations getting cancelled when people move house or leave the UK, and no typos of people's names, DoB, NHS number etc creep in.
This matters when it comes to reporting those vaxxed v unvaxxed rates:
PHE prefer to use NIMS internally (because NIMS is where they get the vaxxed number from) and that's what they use in their public report. Fair enough? Not really, because it's being used by antivaxxers.
Incidentally, my guess is that NIMS is probably more accurate than ONS in the over 75s and the under 16s because the chances are they're the groups most likely to be correctly registered with GPs. The ONS probably matches the general population better, particularly the working age one. Whichever numbers get used in this kind of chart though, they need massive caveats next to them.
Sounds odd? Well, yes, but it's the same in most countries (hence why some countries have reported vax rates above 100% in some age groups). We know "roughly" how many people live here, but when it comes down to the 70+ group for example we think 97% or more have had the jab. That's when roughly doesn't help. An error in the total population in that age group of +/-1% and we have somewhere between 2 and 4% unvaxxed. In other words any calculation of hospitalisation rates for the unvaxxed are massively error prone. It's known as the denominators problem.
The ONS - who run the population survey, and monitor births, deaths etc give one set of numbers. NIMS, which lists people on GPs lists, gives another one - usually a higher one. That relies on up to date GP records, including old GP registrations getting cancelled when people move house or leave the UK, and no typos of people's names, DoB, NHS number etc creep in.
This matters when it comes to reporting those vaxxed v unvaxxed rates:
PHE prefer to use NIMS internally (because NIMS is where they get the vaxxed number from) and that's what they use in their public report. Fair enough? Not really, because it's being used by antivaxxers.
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Incidentally, my guess is that NIMS is probably more accurate than ONS in the over 75s and the under 16s because the chances are they're the groups most likely to be correctly registered with GPs. The ONS probably matches the general population better, particularly the working age one. Whichever numbers get used in this kind of chart though, they need massive caveats next to them.
That's what the people doing the main statistical models for the UK are suggesting. Death rates and hospitalisations should start dropping in the next couple of weeks, unless something (people's behaviour, vaccine efficacy) changes. It'll vary a lot across regions and even within small areas though, so it's going to be a bumpy ride.
Got my booster yesterday and had no reaction at all. Worryingly though a girl I work with who had COVID last year when it was all new and trendy, has got it again and that’s after being vaccinated and she’s had her booster as well. She’s just got mild symptoms so could be much worse without the jabs.
https://www.thelocal.se/20211029/sw...coronavirus-commission-to-present-new-report/
No mention of the timing of Stockholm's ski holidays though, so probably worthless report.
No mention of the timing of Stockholm's ski holidays though, so probably worthless report.
Not worrying, its expected. Mild symptoms is good news.
So why are people 'shouting for' plan B? Even learned posters on here?
Looks like this hasn't been mentioned on the forum yet: clinial trial results suggest that Fluvoxamine (a cheap existing drug) might be very effective at preventing infected people from dying or going to intensive care.
There are some caveats (the study only just came out and was limited to Brazilian adults), but this is looking really promising right now.
Longer article with further links: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02988-4Nature Briefing said:
There are some caveats (the study only just came out and was limited to Brazilian adults), but this is looking really promising right now.
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As long as the patients are gradually weaned off of the drug it's worth trying, I suppose. I'd worry that if it is left up to the patient they'll just stop abruptly and get some nasty side effects.
The UK (in particular England) has taken a gamble and most of the world is watching to see how it goes. In theory, if the gamble comes off, the UK will reach a kind of herd immunity (previous infection and/or vaccination) by around Christmas. That's with adult vaccination of around 90%, kids with maybe as much as 70% prior infection/vax, and the adult unvaxxed adding an extra few percent of immunity by infection. The cost will be several thousand lives.
From that point on we'll view covid as endemic. Not a thing with negligible cases or deaths, but a thing that vaccine boosters and the occasional repeat infection will keep within what modern life can handle.
That's the thing though - what can we handle and what are we willing to live with? It's a moral decision, more than a scientific one. If you don't want to go back to normal life, then you might get to endemic with fewer deaths but it might take years as we wait for higher vaccination levels and better drugs.
A lot of people around Europe (and in the UK) still hope we can get to normal quickly but have fewer deaths. They may be right, but that's where the gamble is. The plan B stuff for England (masks, vaccine passports, work from home advice) haven't kept case rates low in Scotland/Wales. It looks like it needs more restrictions than that to make a difference - some people think that's ok, some don't.
Yeah, I saw that. Looks encouraging. Much more so than any ivermectin data I’ve ever seen. They could be onto something here.
We had 2 Central.Sydney LGA's lagging enexpectedly in the % vaccinated. It is thought that it is because we are comparing real vax numbers with population figures that include huge numbers of international students and workers who went home.One for the geeks. The UK's stats geeks are having a row - basically Public Heath England v everyone else. When they produce the weekly covid surveillance stats for the UK, they include some basic calculations of hospitalisation rates in the vaccinated by age - this is easy because they know how many people have been vaxxed. They also produce figures for the unvaxxed - this is a much tougher problem because we don't know how many people are unvaxxed, because we don't know how many people live in the UK.
Sounds odd? Well, yes, but it's the same in most countries (hence why some countries have reported vax rates above 100% in some age groups). We know "roughly" how many people live here, but when it comes down to the 70+ group for example we think 97% or more have had the jab. That's when roughly doesn't help. An error in the total population in that age group of +/-1% and we have somewhere between 2 and 4% unvaxxed. In other words any calculation of hospitalisation rates for the unvaxxed are massively error prone. It's known as the denominators problem.
The ONS - who run the population survey, and monitor births, deaths etc give one set of numbers. NIMS, which lists people on GPs lists, gives another one - usually a higher one. That relies on up to date GP records, including old GP registrations getting cancelled when people move house or leave the UK, and no typos of people's names, DoB, NHS number etc creep in.
This matters when it comes to reporting those vaxxed v unvaxxed rates:
PHE prefer to use NIMS internally (because NIMS is where they get the vaxxed number from) and that's what they use in their public report. Fair enough? Not really, because it's being used by antivaxxers.
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Incidentally, my guess is that NIMS is probably more accurate than ONS in the over 75s and the under 16s because the chances are they're the groups most likely to be correctly registered with GPs. The ONS probably matches the general population better, particularly the working age one. Whichever numbers get used in this kind of chart though, they need massive caveats next to them.
I get that the UK is pushing on early and I'm not sure I agree with that so early on, but eventually other countries will have to follow within the next year or so. If there is a possibility of either a sterilising vaccine or a drug which is highly effective at reducing mortality rates then it makes sense to wait, but if that doesn't happen then the virus is just being held off and we have to deal with it eventually anyway,
I think the overlap with flu mortality will become quite important in individual countries decisions over the winter.
Yep. Best case, the UK case rates (and hospitalisations/deaths) fall enough before Christmas that when the flu season kicks off the hospitals don't collapse completely.
The best case may not be a great picture, but it is part of the reason some modellers suggest that controls now might not help at all. They might just change the shape of the curve in a way that means we'll be dealing with peak covid cases and peak flu cases at the same time.
From the U.K. it seems people are voluntarily not going out as much or avoiding unnecessarily going out. In past week or so some places that usually have a lot of foot traffic are almost like the week before the first lockdown was announced.
Just for anyone who thinks I've been sounding unreasonably positive about the UK's stats recently - I'm not. I'm just aware that there isn't an easy route through winter, even for countries that think they're doing it right at the moment, and that the UK will have some key lessons for our European neighbours in particular.
Unfortunately lesson number one is that if you're committed to using vaccines and boosters as your primary defence against hospitalisations and deaths, you'd better be quick about getting the boosters done.
The "third dose/boost at 6 month" idea is based on UK antibody and early infection data, and the booster's near instant impact has been seen in Israel. Javid said there are plenty of jabs and plenty of bookings available - but people aren't coming forward quickly enough. However, just to relate a 78 year old family member's experience - he wasn't able to book until a week after his 6 month schedule, the first booking offered was for 2 weeks after that and at a site that basically he can't get to without a car. Looking at that twitter thread, I'm guessing he's not the only one.
Unfortunately lesson number one is that if you're committed to using vaccines and boosters as your primary defence against hospitalisations and deaths, you'd better be quick about getting the boosters done.
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The "third dose/boost at 6 month" idea is based on UK antibody and early infection data, and the booster's near instant impact has been seen in Israel. Javid said there are plenty of jabs and plenty of bookings available - but people aren't coming forward quickly enough. However, just to relate a 78 year old family member's experience - he wasn't able to book until a week after his 6 month schedule, the first booking offered was for 2 weeks after that and at a site that basically he can't get to without a car. Looking at that twitter thread, I'm guessing he's not the only one.
Quality balanced post as always.
Come out addicted instead
I have to admit I know nothing about this medication besides what's in the article I quoted. But if it's used only in a hospital setting to prevent the worst outcomes, then I suppose the addiction risk is lower and can be managed by hospital staff?
Just a quickie for anyone booking a jab, I'd advise against choosing a time slot late in the day, I had mine at 7:00pm and they closed the doors 5 minutes after I got in because they were running out, so I'd estimate about 60 people would have been turned away to re-book for another time. Not blaming anyone, nothing runs perfectly at the best of times and I'm sure a lot of people in the whole system are working flat out at the moment.
It's a negligible difference considering all the messaging about how everyone had to take the vaccine otherwise you'll kill everybody's nan.
Read a preprint that said there is 0 difference in transmissibility for delta between the AZ vaccine and the unvaccinated after 3 months.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264260v1.full
Certainly makes the justification for vaccine passports look shaky
Disagree. It’s not a negligible difference, even at an individual level. And the whole point of a mass vaccination program is about making a difference at a population level. Where even just moving the dial 1% or 2% can save many many lives. So these data fully endorse the need to get vaccinated.
You seem to be misunderstanding/misinterpreting the preprint you shared, by the way. It analyses the possibility of infecting someone else if you have covid. The chances of having covid are - obviously - a lot lower in someone who is vaccinated than someone who is not vaccinated. Likewise catching it on a night out. Hence it makes sense to allow vaccinated people a little more freedom in terms of socialising indoors.
And one last time - for the cheap seats - the vacccines aren’t flawless. They don’t need to be. When you’re dealing with the behaviour of thousands and thousands of people, you just need to tilt the balance a little bit to have fairly profound benefits. It’s amazing this needs to be pointed out seeing as we have so much evidence all around us of life getting back very close to normal without the same healthcare burden we’ve seen in previous waves, pre-vaccine.
Interesting thread from the chairman of the committee that represents the NHS hospital trusts on mandatory vaccination of NHS workers. Not surprisingly, they're worried about the impact on staff retention. They also want to emphasise that the unvaxxed staff in general are not the stereotype anti-vaxxers of the US right etc, and that demonising the hesitant or resistant doesn't help.
Compulsory vaccination in the care sector has already compounded staffing problems there. It's not surprising that the NHS bosses are nervous.
I must admit I'm a complete hypocrite on this. I want me and my family to be seen by vaxxed staff. But I also don't want to drive young women out of the NHS or discriminate against black staff and others who've already paid a heavy price for working through the pandemic.
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Compulsory vaccination in the care sector has already compounded staffing problems there. It's not surprising that the NHS bosses are nervous.
I must admit I'm a complete hypocrite on this. I want me and my family to be seen by vaxxed staff. But I also don't want to drive young women out of the NHS or discriminate against black staff and others who've already paid a heavy price for working through the pandemic.
Were getting mandatory face masks back and proof of vaxx at more venues
Some depressing reading on excess deaths in a number of countries. The big standout, because it's the biggest number of people - Russia's excess deaths across the pandemic are around 750k, their declared covid death toll over the period is less than a third of that.
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Interesting that this isn't being harped on more, by those wishing others to take the issue more seriously.
Australia recently had 2 flue deaths. The first for a year. Some strains of flu may even have been eradicated.
https://www.theguardian.com/society...id-measures-with-one-type-possibly-eliminated
https://www.theguardian.com/society...id-measures-with-one-type-possibly-eliminated
Found this interesting article on Newsweek. It certainly challenges the current narrative without any tin-foil-hat-ness.
Please, read all through, don't stop at the title.
Please, read all through, don't stop at the title.
If that's the case they will probably accept the vaccine once forced. It's been compulsory here for a long time with no negative effects. I think there were a few hundred people at most.
Aside from the usual benefits of vaccination, being swayed by such false or misleading scientific information calls into question their competence as medical staff.
The UK has approved molnupiravir as an early (as soon as diagnosed) covid treatment. It'll be used for vulnerable patients recently diagnosed with covid. It'll be interesting to se how that "vulnerable" definition works and whether it will also be prescribed to vulnerable patients who are household contacts of someone with covid.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59163899
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59163899
Some interesting points in there. Some absolute nonsense too. And the whole premise seems to be based around criticising decisions made before the evidence became available to question those decisions. It’s always easy to be wise with the benefit of hindsight.
No sympathy, if people arse about in chimneys they deserve to suffer.
Well, I would think many didn't necessarily agree with the decisions at the time they were made but those who dared to criticise the decisions with well thought-through points were waved off or dismissed (not to mention those who were ridiculed).
You’re missing the point. Almost all the decisions were the correct ones at the time they were made. Even if hindsight calls some of them into question.
As for differing opinions they’ve always existed. They still exist now. A lot of experts would disagree with almost everything in that article you linked. It’s only the really dumb opinions that get ridiculed. Unfortunately there’s been a lot of dumb opinions aired on this topic.