Lewis needs a good start, or he could be behind a few cars. From Lando’s interview he said he doesn’t want to do anything that could affect the championship, so I wouldn’t expect him to be pulling off moves into turn 1 except if they were clean. Perez in 4th will be a problem as he will won’t hold back.
I think RB have to to try to make a one stop work, but for that to happen Max will have to nurse the sorts in the first stint, which will play into Mercedes hands as the tyre advantage would be wiped out. Lewis will go longer in the first and then shorter in the second. I expect to see Lewis coming out around 10-15 seconds behind Max for his second stint. Max’s tyres will wear towards the end and Lewis is the master of hunting down. This will be close.
Track position is normally key for this circuit, the last 6 poles have gone on to win. I hope Lewis can break that record.