Whoever does best gets to be the new Putin.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) was joined by comedian Ali Woods to look back at the best and worst moments of a rollercoaster season with the annual United Hour Awards.
Has Ten Hag been sacked yet? We're not sure and we hope not, but it's looking more likely as the days pass.
Who should replace him and why is it taking so long to make a decision?
I don't think a 2nd is coming?
That poor fecker at the end who confidently jumped into a muddy area, certain that there were no mines there. Horrible.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
I think there was also one for Lukashenko planned.
Absolutely horrific and incredibly heroic. That guy at the end self applied a tourniquet on what remained of his leg in less than 25 seconds. Looked like they got everyone in the Bradley by the end.
Some saying it was the clip of the security meeting and that already happened.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
They would’ve taken Wagner imo, especially since they have the benefit of the creator of the Universe on their side.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Because they hate each other since the 90s. Lukashenko at that time had ambitions to become Russia's leader (and further uniting Belarus and Russia to make that possible).
He needed Putin's support to stay in power, but so far he managed quite well to stay out of trouble about Ukraine, got some nukes and might now get a battle-hardened army that is actually respected in Russia. Wagner also gives him access to Africa due to their activities there.
Brokering deals that benefit him/Belarus while Russia is sanctioned into oblivion could well be his endgame here, but he needs to be careful so that the Russian army in Belarus won't get rid of him.
When Russia delivered the nukes he publicly stated that so far no country owning nuclear weapons was ever attacked, so he needed them as a security guarantee. That is a correct observation, but one can wonder if he meant Russia that has to be deterred...
Just two hard men, going at it. Raw. Uncensored. Hammering each other to exhaustion.
You say got some nukes as if he has control over them. Nothing can be further from the truth. This notion really needs to die.
Yeah, Russia stationing some of its weapons in Belarus, does not make Belarus a nuclear armed country.
There'd be much more outrage and concern from the west if this were the case.
Putin looks really weak here. Expect part 2 of this armed mutiny to occur shortly.
Unclear to me who would be the mutineers, unless Wagner actually manages to remain here. But it's definitely made Putin look weak, and that's the worst possible outcome for a strongman dictator.
Girkin on point again. This was clearly an attempt to overthrow the government and it's far from over.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
I am sure at the moment he hasn't, I agree. But I am also sure that he will try to change that.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
That's a bit surprising in tone.
Lukashenko is the master of press conferences and keeping Putin happy but this might be the first time he's implied anything negative about him. Other than that it is standard NATO = bad stuff.
Yes, no surprises about nato. The Putin comment though is slightly off.
Is it all a set piece, or is Luka showing some gonads? Did he actually save the situation? Seems highly unlikely. He was ready to go last night, but needed another rehearsal.
No one stays in power 30 years without being a cunning cnut and know what to do in certain circumstances. People might laugh at lukashenko and have him as a stupid clown but he has shown how to deal with very complicated situations against his own people showing when to be cruel and push the limits with the EU neigbhours and also walking a thin line in the ukranian war without entering directly in the conflict and not alienating putin.
Putin is used to be a top dog in the geopolitical world and he strongarms people. Lukashenko has not that luxury outside belarus so has probably much experience in a situation that putin was shitting bricks and out of his confort negotiaton area
The simple fact that no one denies that he was involved in saving the situation proves that he must have some influence inside Russia currently.
Putin would never willingly acknowledge that someone else brokered a deal and that he hinself doesn't have the power or ability to do it on his own. That makes him look weak.
And Lukashenko's "there are no heroes here" statement is pure gold.
Putin always tried to keep a hyper-masculine image, he wants to be a heroic figure.
Wagner are made war heroes by Russian propaganda, this undermines that.
Lukashenko always played the simple man of the people. He never before even tried to make himself an heroic figure and therefore is the only one not losing status due to such a statement.
Lukashenko for the foreseeable future between Putin and Prigozhin:
After years of humiliation, he definetly enjoys the unexpected status he gained as a mediator on a crisis, Putin could not solve on his own. But now he must be careful. He promised Prigozhin and his Wagners safety, maybe prematurely without thinking it through what Putin would think of it. On the other hand, he is still dependent on Putin. Without him, he becomes ex-dictator in exile faster than Prigozhin would need to reach Moscow. So he must not overreach and he needs to behave in a way, so Putin continues to trust him. And because Prigozhin is in Lukashenko's domain now, any provocation towards Russia and Moscow, Putin could assume Lukashenko's participation in it. I believe this "relationship" between those 3 will keep on giving.
After years of humiliation, he definetly enjoys the unexpected status he gained as a mediator on a crisis, Putin could not solve on his own. But now he must be careful. He promised Prigozhin and his Wagners safety, maybe prematurely without thinking it through what Putin would think of it. On the other hand, he is still dependent on Putin. Without him, he becomes ex-dictator in exile faster than Prigozhin would need to reach Moscow. So he must not overreach and he needs to behave in a way, so Putin continues to trust him. And because Prigozhin is in Lukashenko's domain now, any provocation towards Russia and Moscow, Putin could assume Lukashenko's participation in it. I believe this "relationship" between those 3 will keep on giving.
Et tu Aleksandr
Surely there are political games going on behind the scenes. This has been a disaster from day one so I have no doubt that powerful people in eth security services have positioned themselves to benefit from this. Who knew of Putin before he was swept to power by the elite who backed him?
The FSB may have been happy to apply pressure to Wagner to get them to back down, but that doesn't mean they support Putin. There'll be games within games going on.
In my opinion this is all headed where a lot of people thought it would head when the original invasion failed. How can he survive long term?
Putin needs a success and he needs it sooner rather than later. But he must have handed out many favours throughout the years and can probably call them in now. Not to mention that the Chinese would probably prefer him to some unknown quantity backed by the FSB.
Its a pity Wagner didnt just go all out on their march on Moscow simply because it would have ended the war in the interim at least.
If true it can't be the end of this storyline? Surely the MoD isn't weakening its best asset for the sake of it?
Kinda feels like Russia has disappeared so far up its own arsehole trying to blur truth that even they don’t know what’s going on.
Insert the ‘it hurt itself in confusion’ meme here.
But what choice does it have? Putin cannot afford to leave Wagner at their current strength. He’d rather stay in power and lose in Ukraine, than win in Ukraine after being deposed.
Seriously. I read some of the reports and they make no sense even when they are supposed to benefit Russia. The only thing that makes sense is if you relate it to the tweet about deep corruption in the russian army that @Raoul shared. Maybe the answer is simply that we shouldn't look at things from a distance but look at who would privately benefit from certain actions?
That's for your to tell me, what we are told is that Wagner recent actions against the MoD are based on the MoD planning to dismantle PMCs unless that's a lie the MoD created their own issue and did it at a strange time.
I have to be honest here and say I have no idea what question you are asking me to answer!