Westminster Politics

sun_tzu

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MadMike said:
Voter Id makes no sense to me. However an all-purpose National Id makes complete sense and I’m always bemused that the UK doesn’t have one. Drivers licenses are supposed to be for drivers and passports are for international travel. Both non-essential documents that come with a cost.

I grew up in Greece and you get a National ID from the age of 12, which is used as a form of identification for voting, opening bank accounts, applying for National Insurance number or Passport, Police identification etc. etc. You turn up at certain types of police station with your parents when you turn 12, having 2 photos in hand, and you get one on the spot. No cost in it, apart from the cost of the pictures from the photo booth.
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Sounds logical...
I would guess it's then just a matter of how often photos are updated .... And do you take DNA samples for a DNA database at the time
Perhaps 16 would be a logical time to do it in the UK... National insurance number issued and ensures I'd on file for when people start to apply for provisional driving licences etc

You could also tie it into organ doner opt outs and the like
 

MadMike

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sun_tzu said:
Sounds logical...
I would guess it's then just a matter of how often photos are updated .... And do you take DNA samples for a DNA database at the time
Perhaps 16 would be a logical time to do it in the UK... National insurance number issued and ensures I'd on file for when people start to apply for provisional driving licences etc

You could also tie it into organ doner opt outs and the like
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5-year duration. In Greece you get your fingerprints taken and the pictures lend themselves to facial recognition of the kind that biometric passports also operate on. DNA is way too much because, identification aside, it also has an incredible amount of encoded information with dystopian future-style potential applications of it. You don't want the government sorting people on perceived intelligence based on their DNA sequencing etc.

But yeah the whole point is that your ID is tied to everything and is pretty much the one and only compulsory state "document". It becomes the basis for everything else and the one thing everything links back to. And for that reason the state has to fund the cost of issuing it with taxes. You do get charged a fee if you lose it though, simply to deter reckless feckers from turning up every month asking for a new one and wasting police time. Although If it's been stolen, then you have to file a police report and you get a replacement for free, which reckless feckers sometimes abuse. It's also free if you turn up for renewal with your old ID.
 
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Ultimate Grib

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Cheesy said:
Labour got around 40% of the vote last time; the Lib Dems got below 10% if I remember correctly. Current polling projections have Labour losing around 15% of their vote on average and the Lib Dems generally at 2-3 times what they were at in 2017. If you apply those nationwide changes to Westminster constituency then it's absolutely in-play. Really has to be remembered that on current polling the Lib Dems are going from getting around a fifth of the vote Labour did in 2017 to almost equalling them. Although whether it's sustainable for them is another matter.

Although dodgy Lib Dem graphs can get fecked. Much as it's a funny meme and all, it's literally a form of lying to the public. If you're going to do bar graphs do them right. Otherwise the Electoral Commission etc should be getting involved.
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Polls aren't accurate. Their sample depends on many factors. It only needs to rain outside and that will skew the results. Not to say that they can be manipulated to anyones desire and purpose. The most accurate poll is the election and Chuka has no chance in accordance with that.

Out of interest has ayone on this forum ever been polled? I never have been in 20+ years as a teen/adult.
 

Kentonio

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Ultimate Grib said:
Polls aren't accurate. Their sample depends on many factors. It only needs to rain outside and that will skew the results. Not to say that they can be manipulated to anyones desire and purpose. The most accurate poll is the election and Chuka has no chance in accordance with that.

Out of interest has ayone on this forum ever been polled? I never have been in 20+ years as a teen/adult.
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Never, and I’m in my early 40’s.
 

Smores

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Ultimate Grib said:
Polls aren't accurate. Their sample depends on many factors. It only needs to rain outside and that will skew the results. Not to say that they can be manipulated to anyones desire and purpose. The most accurate poll is the election and Chuka has no chance in accordance with that.

Out of interest has ayone on this forum ever been polled? I never have been in 20+ years as a teen/adult.
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Street polling yeah once or twice but most of the polling companies rely on people signing up to take part in polls so if you haven't you won't.

Personally don't put much faith in polls as i can't see how they can ever be truly accurate.
 

NWRed

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Ultimate Grib said:
Polls aren't accurate. Their sample depends on many factors. It only needs to rain outside and that will skew the results. Not to say that they can be manipulated to anyones desire and purpose. The most accurate poll is the election and Chuka has no chance in accordance with that.

Out of interest has ayone on this forum ever been polled? I never have been in 20+ years as a teen/adult.
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Any individual poll obviously has an error margin, usually stated, and many have some political bias or other bias due to polling methods etc, plus all companies struggle to keep up with changing habits such as lack of land lines, but to simply state polls are inaccurate is very misleading. Poll aggregators that use multiple sources and weight correctly are pretty good. fivethirtyeight is the US is excellent and there are some good UK one's too like BritainElects.
 

Mr Pigeon

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Helder-Carvalho said:
No idea the phobia certain people in the US and UK have agains a National ID card, it's useful in alot of ways, ours replaced a number of documents

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Is it free? That seems to be the only reason I'm seeing on here why people are against it.
 

Ultimate Grib

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NWRed said:
Any individual poll obviously has an error margin, usually stated, and many have some political bias or other bias due to polling methods etc, plus all companies struggle to keep up with changing habits such as lack of land lines, but to simply state polls are inaccurate is very misleading. Poll aggregators that use multiple sources and weight correctly are pretty good. fivethirtyeight is the US is excellent and there are some good UK one's too like BritainElects.
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You've outlined all the reasons why they're not accurate. How did you come to the conclusion that they are?
 

NWRed

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Ultimate Grib said:
You've outlined all the reasons why they're not accurate. How did you come to the conclusion that they are?
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I said poll aggregators are good sources as pooling the results of many different companies polls, and when done properly, means the relatively larger sample size and counterbalancing of biases results in fairly accurate data.

The problem with polling isn't the polls themselves, it's the people who read/quote them. For example a poll with a 3% error margin that gives the Tories a 4 point lead merely means the real picture could be anywhere between a 2 point Labour lead a 10 point Tory lead.
 

Ultimate Grib

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NWRed said:
I said poll aggregators are good sources as pooling the results of many different companies polls, and when done properly, means the relatively larger sample size and counterbalancing of biases results in fairly accurate data.

The problem with polling isn't the polls themselves, it's the people who read/quote them. For example a poll with a 3% error margin that gives the Tories a 4 point lead merely means the real picture could be anywhere between a 2 point Labour lead a 10 point Tory lead.
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Aggregating erroneous results somehow fixes them?
 

NWRed

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Ultimate Grib said:
Aggregating erroneous results somehow fixes them?
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They aren't erroneous results (that would mean they are incorrect i.e. misreporting their own data), each polling company has a predictable lean one way or the other as their biases and methods produce this lean. This can identified and accounted for when pooling the data by looking at historical accuracy, not to mention the simple statistical fact that a larger sample size means the data is more reliable.
 

Ultimate Grib

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NWRed said:
They aren't erroneous results (that would mean they are incorrect i.e. misreporting their own data), each polling company has a predictable lean one way or the other as their biases and methods produce this lean. This can identified and accounted for when pooling the data by looking at historical accuracy, not to mention the simple statistical fact that a larger sample size means the data is more reliable.
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To create the desired lean they have to misrepresent their data in one form or therefore rendering it erroneous and inaccurate. Aggregating these results even by trying to reverse the lean it will just amplify the margin of error.

If polls are to be taken at face value appointing Boris has made the Conservatives hugely popular however in real life the majority of moderate and “shy tories” absolutely despise him and that centre is where the power of the electorate lies because that’s the swing that decides elections.
 

NWRed

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Ultimate Grib said:
To create the desired lean they have to misrepresent their data in one form or therefore rendering it erroneous and inaccurate. Aggregating these results even by trying to reverse the lean it will just amplify the margin of error.

If polls are to be taken at face value appointing Boris has made the Conservatives hugely popular however in real life the majority of moderate and “shy tories” absolutely despise him and that centre is where the power of the electorate lies because that’s the swing that decides elections.
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I'm sorry but your entire post is nonsense.

Polling companies do not have to misrepresent their data to create a certain outcome, the lean is created, either deliberately or not, by the forming of survey such as the wording of the questions, or the sampling technique, i.e. when/how it is conducted and how exactly to stratify. A statistical analysis of historical data can show how much 'lean' the company normally has and so the data can be corrected or treated accordingly. Correcting a known and demonstrable error ≠ amplifying the margin of error.

As for Johnson, he may be alienating centrist and economically conservative but socially liberal Tories, but this is more than offset by the 'new' Tories since the referendum, i.e. formerly UKIP, non voters, recent Brexit Party supporters and the socially conservative wing of the Tory Party.
 

Ultimate Grib

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NWRed said:
I'm sorry but your entire post is nonsense.

Polling companies do not have to misrepresent their data to create a certain outcome, the lean is created, either deliberately or not, by the forming of survey such as the wording of the questions, or the sampling technique, i.e. when/how it is conducted and how exactly to stratify. A statistical analysis of historical data can show how much 'lean' the company normally has and so the data can be corrected or treated accordingly. Correcting a known and demonstrable error ≠ amplifying the margin of error.

As for Johnson, he may be alienating centrist and economically conservative but socially liberal Tories, but this is more than offset by the 'new' Tories since the referendum, i.e. formerly UKIP, non voters, recent Brexit Party supporters and the socially conservative wing of the Tory Party.
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It's a pointless conversation you keep giving more and more details of how the polls are inacuratte and conclude that they are. :houllier:

Only one poll is ever accurate, and that's the votes cast at the ballot box. All the rest are open to manipulation and misrepresentation to suit anyones needs.
 

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Ultimate Grib said:
It's a pointless conversation you keep giving more and more details of how the polls are inacuratte and conclude that they are. :houllier:

Only one poll is ever accurate, and that's the votes cast at the ballot box. All the rest are open to manipulation and misrepresentation to suit anyones needs.
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It's all about understanding and managing error, of course no sample can ever claim to be as accurate of a census, neithet I nor the companies themselves claim that, they specify an error margin for that reason.

If you can't understand simple statistical principles then you are correct, this is pointless.
 

Ultimate Grib

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NWRed said:
It's all about understanding and managing error, of course no sample can ever claim to be as accurate of a census, neithet I nor the companies themselves claim that, they specify an error margin for that reason.

If you can't understand simple statistical principles then you are correct, this is pointless.
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I understand statistics very well, however they are manipulated to the conducters content so they simply are not accurate.

An example of statistics is the government failing to register certain types of offences as crime or violent crime then using the collated statistics to claim that crime is down :wenger:
 

NWRed

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Ultimate Grib said:
I understand statistics very well, however they are manipulated to the conducters content so they simply are not accurate.

An example of statistics is the government failing to register certain types of offences as crime or violent crime then using the collated statistics to claim that crime is down :wenger:
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OK, I'm aware of how data can be manipulated, but there is a difference between variation created by technique/error due to sampling size/method and data manipulation or falsification. As you seem unable to distinguish between them I see no point continuing this so I won't be replying again.
 
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