2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

[welshwingwizard]

The idea that Sanders has lost comfortably in two Democrat primaries and couldn't turn out the independents and young voters like claimed, yet would apparently do so in the election is so lacking in logic.

One of Biden's problems is he's perceived as too left leaning in most these swing states. What twitter millenials living in the coastal states think of you matters not one bit.

It's only lacking in logic if you frame it in the context of losing the democratic primaries where it was really Black democratic support staying with Biden that turned things around when he has been floundering.

To win the overall presidency that demographic would always back you. What you needed to do was get voter turnout up and attract independents in swing states.

Biden didnt have a message other than being anti something. No hope for the future, no reengaging with working class voters in the rust belt offering prospects and a future.

Only a message of hope and aspiration would have been able to counter Trumps divisive message of hate and anger.

For some reason the democratic establishment made exactly the same mistakes as with HC. Hopefully it wont be as costly.

 

[Sarni]

Wisconsin is very close. Maybe recount territory.

If the gap is 20k it's not really that close, is it?

 

[SirAF]

Wow. Based on the Michigan State official commentary, Michigan could go blue in a big way since everything is absentee ballots.

I fecking love you!

 

[Samid]

Wait is uncle Joe winning? I had given up hope already. Is this a false dawn? Should we sack Biden and sell Pelosi or is the title race back on?!

Think it's time to burst Kamala "Kamy's" bubble.

 

[adexkola]

Is...Is Silver taking a victory lap?

After this is all over I'm creating a thread about polling "science".

cc @Revan

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

Wisconsin is very close. Maybe recount territory.

It is recount territory, but it won’t happen until the BoE meet one week after E-Day, and by then Biden might not even need the state anymore (PA/MI outside of recount range), so Republicans might not even bother.

 

[Precaution]

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So... He didn't get Michigan?

 

[Tel074]

I've been up most of the night and I'm still not sure who is going to win . My bet365 is now showing Biden as a big fav which trump was all through the night .


Can anyone who actually knows what they are talking about tell me what % possibility Biden has of winning ?

 

[Solius]

So... He didn't get Michigan?

He's still gaining.

 

[altodevil]

A lot of people have made a lot of money in the last 5/6 hours

 

[Mike Smalling]

Why is CNN not yet reporting the latest Michigan numbers from the tweets above?

 

[mu4c_20le]

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[Rado_N]

So... He didn't get Michigan?

Read the first line...

 

[Tom Van Persie]

Newman!

 

[JakeC]

Why is CNN not yet reporting the latest Michigan numbers from the tweets above?

They seem to be 6 minutes behind all night.

 

[WI_Red]

If the gap is 20k it's not really that close, is it?

About the same gap as 2016

 

[MuFc_1992]

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is it 87 or 99 % that is in?

 

[neverdie]

Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia give Biden the Presidency. He's favourite in all those states with NC still in play.

 

[simonhch]

Why is CNN not yet reporting the latest Michigan numbers from the tweets above?

Theyve been super slow all night.

 

[SinNombre]

Is...Is Silver taking a victory lap?

Haha this guy.

His base case was more than a 100EC win for Biden but now he is going to claim a narrow win as validating him.

 

[WPMUFC]

Reminder:

Current mail trends put biden in pole position to win Michigan and Pennsylvania

 

[Siorac]

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This is why I kept saying all night long that calling Biden an uninspired candidate is somewhat wide of the mark: clearly, he managed to enthuse a staggering amount of votes. He mainly did so by not being Trump, admittedly. But still: no presidential candidate ever received more votes. It's a bit odd to then turn around and say he should have done much better.

 

[sullydnl]

So other than (what I assume was) the cuban diaspora in Florida, did Biden actually underperform with a given demographic to make it this close?

Or is it more a case of Trump very effectively mobilising his base to match Biden?

 

[mariachi-19]

I've been up most of the night and I'm still not sure who is going to win . My bet365 is now showing Biden as a big fav which trump was all through the night .


Can anyone who actually knows what they are talking about tell me what % possibility Biden has of winning ?

Right now its probably 66-33 to Biden but thats taking into account Trumps court claims. Literally if the trends continue with Michigan and we know that Nevada is incredibly like to stay blue, Biden wins... PA, Georgia and NC are all not necessary but would be a nice bonus and hopefully a potential senate win.

Right now all momentum is with Biden and it doesn't look like anything will swing trumps way.

 

[TheGame]

Think it's time to burst Kamala "Kamy's" bubble.

We need to create a thread on what she brings to the team.

 

[fergieisold]

is it 87 or 99 % that is in?

yeh that line makes no sense to me!

 

[Revan]

After this is all over I'm creating a thread about polling "science".

cc @Revan

Polls have been shit though, even if Biden wins. Was supposed to be an easy victory based on polls, and also the senate to flip.

Regardless if he wins or not, I think polls this time have been worse than in 2016 (when IMO they were ok, but misread by many people).

 

[syrian_scholes]

Sheer volume of deep blue democrat vote in the other states may make georgia a nice to have instead of must win

Yeah but it'll also give Biden a breather in case a shock happens in Nevada.

 

[Tel074]

Right now its probably 66-33 but thats taking into account Trumps court claims. Literally if the trends continue with Michigan and we know that Nevada is incredibly like to stay blue, Biden wins... PA, Georgia and NC are all not necessary but would be a nice bonus and hopefully a potential senate win.

Thank you

 

[sammsky1]

Looking like it will go to pens after a tight VAR assisted equaliser in injury time. Biden with the back door after getting dominated the whole game.

Ole vs PSG 1.0

 

[Tom Van Persie]

Bill O'Reilly tears

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[Dudu]

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[syrian_scholes]

is it 87 or 99 % that is in?

Secretary of state confirmed 100s of thousands of votes left to count, and they are mostly in Detroit.

 

[WI_Red]

After this is all over I'm creating a thread about polling "science".

cc @Revan

Can I join, pleeeees? We can share our favorite python scripts and discuss outlier tests!

I

 

[sammsky1]

Went to bed at 6.30. Just woke up.

Very confused. Whats happening?

 

[Zlaatan]

Yes. Well, Fulton county did and that’s where the vote is mainly outstanding now.

Apparently due to restart at 8am.

Right, thanks.

 

[Solius]

Went top bed at 6.30. Just woke up.

Very confused. Whats happening?

There's an election in the US to determine the next President.

 

[KiD MoYeS]

Everyone stay calm.

 

[WI_Red]

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Your tears taste sweet <insert bad name for thing he did>

 

[neverdie]

It is recount territory, but it won’t happen until the BoE meet one week after E-Day, and by then Biden might not even need the state anymore (PA/MI outside of recount range), so Republicans might not even bother.

Is he expected to claw back the 600k in PA? If he does that then he's a massive favourite with everything else being as it is. He doesn't need it from where I'm looking and still favourite to win.