For fecks sake, before you all start clutching your pearls just look at the percentages reported in key counties, particularly suburbs and cities. It’s not all doom and gloom.
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This isn't surprising though. Everyone thought she was going to have a cakewalk after she won the primary. It seriously is a bad sign but one we knew about for months at least.Tweet
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Demoralized, but not shocked.how are American caf posters here holding up?
In Ohio, say CNN, the proportion of early/mail-in votes to be counted will rise as the night progresses - which favours Biden.Ohio down to 49.5 - 49.2
Will end at least 55 for Trump
Depends on Cuban vs non-Cuban Hispanics.Can't see Arizona happening now. It had similar polls to Florida and Trump has taken that and comfortably.
It's just all depressing now.
Typically it's the other way around.Wonder why no coverage on any possible democratic swing states that Trump can steal.
For an outsider, seems it's more difficult for a Republican to be President in general.
Most of the Michigan numbers are not from the early vote apparently (which will probably favor the Dems).I have Biden needing 61 from Arizona(11), Minnesota(10), Nevada(6), New Hampshire(4), Pa(20), Wisconsin(10), Michigan(16), Maine(4)
Anyone know the situation in Michigan?
Yes. As fair as the previous ones.Given republicans track record does anyone actually believe this is a free and fair election ?
Maybe, but as of now, even a small change in votes counted percentage is leading to huge shift towards Trump.In Ohio, say CNN, the proportion of early/mail-in votes to be counted will rise as the night progresses - which favours Biden.
Barely...how are American caf posters here holding up?
538 is not a pollster.Surely there's no come back for pollsters after this?
He doesn't need Arizona if he takes Michigan, Wisconsin and PA from Trump. But he needs all 3.I have Biden needing 61 from Arizona(11), Minnesota(10), Nevada(6), New Hampshire(4), Pa(20), Wisconsin(10), Michigan(16), Maine(4)
Anyone know the situation in Michigan?
Don't know if those people should has votes though when they don't let other's has votes.Yes. As fair as the previous ones.
People here don't want to concede that a lot of the population has different priorities than them.
It's the other way round. The elector college votes assigned to each state are not proportional with their population. Consequently, smaller states have relatively many of those votes, and a lot more of those vote Republican (a lot of the midwest and the north). It is very unlikely to ever see a Democratic president that won despite a Republican majority in the popular vote, while we have already seen the opposite a few times, and this time again (if Trump would win). If the US would work hard on enabling everyone to vote and had a proportional system, the Republicans would never win again - but in practice, it's the other way round.Wonder why no coverage on any possible democratic swing states that Trump can steal.
For an outsider, seems it's more difficult for a Republican to be President in general.
There's always is.Surely there's no come back for pollsters after this?
Polls in the lead up to election are fair play. Inundating the thread with betting odds tweets while the actual election is taking place is a bit over the top. There's probably a thread for that elsewhere.I think posting betting odds is pointless because unlike some think they're not smarter than other estimates and just follow perception of momentum.
But it's quite rich of Mods the likes of @Raoul who spammed the thread for months with meaningless tweets and general polls to ban them in this chaos of posts during this night.
No, Trump needs ALL of those and to not lose OH, AZ or GA. Will people please calm the feck down.Trump basically needs one of PA, MI, or WI
Thankful for a friendhow are American caf posters here holding up?
He will just say that they gave him 11% chance of winning - and didn't say he won't win.538 is not a pollster.
538 / Nate Silver have proven to be jokes.
But at 74% called and a rising lead, it may be too late then to pull it back?In Ohio, say CNN, the proportion of early/mail-in votes to be counted will rise as the night progresses - which favours Biden.
I would check with the bet makers. They seem to know more than most.
No? He can afford to lose 2 of them if he keeps everything else.No, Trump needs ALL of those and to not lose OH, AZ or GA. Will people please calm the feck down.
I think it's more accurate to say the Republicans would need to reinvent themselves in that case. Saying they would never win again is a bit silly - they'd never win in their current guise, with their current focus.It's the other way round. The elector college votes assigned to each state are not proportional with their population. Consequently, smaller states have relatively many of those votes, and a lot more of those vote Republican (a lot of the midwest and the north). It is very unlikely to ever see a Democratic president that won despite a Republican majority in the popular vote, while we have already seen the opposite a few times, and this time again (if Trump would win). If the US would work hard on enabling everyone to vote and had a proportional system, the Republicans would never win again - but in practice, it's the other way round.
Guys like Kentonio says chill the feck out you are making this unbearableNo, Trump needs ALL of those and to not lose OH, AZ or GA. Will people please calm the feck down.
Typically it's the other way around.
The Electoral College massively helps Republicans.
Makes sense. Seems like Democrats need to breach into Republican swing states. Interesting stuff.It's the other way round. The elector college votes assigned to each state are not proportional with their population. Consequently, smaller states have relatively many of those votes, and a lot more of those vote Republican (a lot of the midwest and the north). It is very unlikely to ever see a Democratic president that won despite a Republican majority in the popular vote, while we have already seen the opposite a few times, and this time again (if Trump would win). If the US would work hard on enabling everyone to vote and had a proportional system, the Republicans would never win again - but in practice, it's the other way round.
Trump is winning GA and the likely winner in OH.No, Trump needs ALL of those and to not lose OH, AZ or GA. Will people please calm the feck down.