Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Honest John]

That's bullshit because there's no scenario where there aren't at least some of the countries worse off when they lose the sixth biggest economy in the world, and you know it. The EU nor the countries in it have ever tried to claim that they won't take a hit when the UK leaves, but they'll be a hell of a lot better equipped to recover from it long-term than the UK will.

That depends on just how fragile the EU is. Populism is clearly on the up and that will ask serious questions of the EU. This is why I say that despite how mad everyone thinks the UK is, the EU should take a long hard look at itself.

 

[Massive Spanner]

That depends on just how fragile the EU is. Populism is clearly on the up and that will ask serious questions of the EU. This is why I say that despite how mad everyone thinks the UK is, the EU should take a long hard look at itself.

A hell of a lot less fragile than the UK.

Nobody is denying that the EU faces a lot of challenges.

 

[Stanley Road]

A hell of a lot less fragile than the UK.

If you look at( some )countries individually, you will find very fragile economies. When they go to shit, how will they be helped by being in the eu? I am genuinely curious.

 

[africanspur]

If you look at( some )countries individually, you will find very fragile economies. When they go to shit, how will they be helped by being in the eu? I am genuinely curious.

What does this mean though? How have Liverpool and Manchester and Bolton and Newcastle been helped by being in the UK when their economies went to shit? How about South Wales? How has Alabama benefitted from being in the USA? How far can you take this argument?

Do you know that in areas of London or Glasgow you can cycle for half an hour and be around people who's life expectancies is 20 years less than the place in the same city where you started? Or that life expectancy dropped for the first time since records began in the UK a couple of years ago?

What would you want the EU (if you still wanted it to exist) to do?

 

[Stanley Road]

What would you want the EU (if you still wanted it to exist) to do?

I don't know, I just keep hearing how prepared other countries are for Brexit and I am not seeing it. With regard to individual countries, that response was to the guy above who said the remaining 27 countries will bounce back a lot quicker cos they're in the eu. I guess he's right, just look at Italy.

 

[africanspur]

I don't know, I just keep hearing how prepared other countries are for Brexit and I am not seeing it. With regard to individual countries, that response was to the guy above who said the remaining 27 countries will bounce back a lot quicker cos they're in the eu. I guess he's right, just look at Italy.

A hard Brexit will undoubtedly affect the whole of the EU. We're the world's 5th largest economy and 2nd largest in the EU. It would also be affected if Germany or France crashed out (or even Italy/ Spain etc imo).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...hZjzeN__Pc-51grsMAQ5_LsfAUayBpEATmU9RZL9nTrxM

This article is pretty good for the different exposures different countries have.

I don't think everyone is saying that the EU won't be affected by the UK's departure. Just that it will likely be less affected as they will still have >20 countries where trade goes on as normal whereas we may suddenly find barriers going up to our trade with our biggest trading partner.

 

[JPRouve]

I don't know, I just keep hearing how prepared other countries are for Brexit and I am not seeing it. With regard to individual countries, that response was to the guy above who said the remaining 27 countries will bounce back a lot quicker cos they're in the eu. I guess he's right, just look at Italy.

I won't comment on the post that you are targeting but you are mixing structural problems that each individual countries have and conjectural issues. Italy has a structural problem, that can only be fixed by reforms emanating from the Italian government while Brexit will be a conjectural problem essentially limited to practical issues regarding supply chains which will be fixed by the concerned private industries themselves because it is their own organization, government might help them but the difficulties of brexit aren't with states, for the most part.
If you compare the UK and EU member states the main difference after brexit is that supply chains within the EU already exist and are available or will be made available relatively quickly between private economic actors, while the UK will need agreements with foreign government which is always a difficult step.

 

[Stick]

I don't know, I just keep hearing how prepared other countries are for Brexit and I am not seeing it. With regard to individual countries, that response was to the guy above who said the remaining 27 countries will bounce back a lot quicker cos they're in the eu. I guess he's right, just look at Italy.

I think what he means is there is safety in numbers and that. United we stand etc. Regarding countries saying they are prepare. Of course they will say that because it gives their people confidence but to be honest there is such an element of unknown here that nobody can be truly prepared.

 

[Massive Spanner]

If you look at( some )countries individually, you will find very fragile economies. When they go to shit, how will they be helped by being in the eu? I am genuinely curious.

I'm not sure how that isn't blatantly obvious, really. Being in the EU gives them the world's largest trading bloc and 2nd largest economy (closely behind the US) to work with, should things 'go to shit'. Plus, an economy of over 500m people is far less likely to go to shit than the UK will.

Ireland will probably be worst hit in the short term by Brexit so we'll have to see how the EU support us when that happens, I'm hoping they will but this is something that's never happened before so it's difficult to predict.

 

[Buster15]

This makes no sense, first the UK haven't been unfairly treated and secondly if you want to change things that affects everyone you need to convince a majority or all members. That's the entire issue here, some seem to think that they can just demand and the other members have to oblige whether it suits them or not.

Unfortunately it is your response that makes no sense.
Where did I say that the UK has been treated unfairly ?

 

[Buster15]

With the red lines May has set the WA is the only one possible - it has been negotiated around what the UK said they wanted.

The EU have said themselves that they'd prefer the UK to stay but the UK decided to leave - the only country that hasn't accepted that the UK are leaving the EU are the UK themselves.



That was obvious from before the referendum but not enough people made an issue of it.
Nevertheless the problem has been clearly evident for more than two years but that doesn't seem to have swayed any opinion or desire by Brexiters to dismiss it.



Yes of course all countries want the best and negotiate within the EU, it's up to the members to decide between them.

My point is that both Tories and Labour are still seeking the benefits of the EU whilst being outside it.

Are the benefits not mutual then.
Post leaving, we all acknowledge that the best possible trade arrangements between the EU and UK will be the best outcome for both sides.

Why do some believe it is all one way.

 

[JPRouve]

Unfortunately it is your response that makes no sense.
Where did I say that the UK has been treated unfairly ?

By suggesting that the UK special demands where linked to being treated fairly. It insinuates that they haven't been treated fairly until these demands are fulfilled.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Are the benefits not mutual then.
Post leaving, we all acknowledge that the best possible trade arrangements between the EU and UK will be the best outcome for both sides.

Why do some believe it is all one way.

The best possible trading arrangements are for the UK to be part of the EU or at least the EEA and the EUCU. Both of which the UK have said they don't want - that is the UK's decision.

If they are not part of this then there will be no frictionless trade, again the UK's choice. The Uk become a third country the same as all the other countries that are not in the EEA/EUCU.

The UK really need frictionless trade, they don't want it - well they do but are not prepared to play by the rules.

 

[Buster15]

Yes I agree the UK are the path finders but you have had 2 years and still a consensus on the Brexit issue has not been agreed by your parliament. Whose at fault there?

I'm a bit slow on things but wasnt the EC/EEC/EU set up as a way to stop wars in Europe over balance of power struggles. It gave representation to all members at a table where previously there was none. In Europe we have had peace since 1945 in part due to stability. I think the UK leaving definitely destabilises the EU and creates tension in competition with the UK for different markets.

If the UK really wanted to reform the EU they could do so within by suggesting reforms, pitching them to member states and making changes democratically. I don't doubt the EU have made mistakes but the anti EU and Johnny foreigner attitude in the British press along with successive average governments blaming Europe for everything have also massively influenced the British electorate.

I'm risk averse so I struggle to understand the logic of this but I hope it works out for you for all our sakes.

No. You are far from being slow and you make some very good points.

THE CM/EU whilst primarily being a trading community was also as you say aimed at ensuring peace in Europe.

In terms of reforms, our previous idiot of a leader Cameron did (so he said) try to bring about changes before the referendum and in fact had this happened it is likely that the referendum would not have happened.

You are right. Much of the British press are anti EU. However, it would be a gross overstatement to suggest that British are anti foreigners.

Remember. Just because just over half of those who voted did so to leave the EU, the vast majority still feel we are part of Europe. Me included.

 

[Buster15]

By suggesting that the UK special demands where linked to being treated fairly. It insinuates that they haven't been treated fairly until these demands are fulfilled.

Quick question.
Do you and Paul operate as a team.
You both respond within seconds of eachother and your responses are almost telepathic.
This is a joke by the way and I have a great deal of respect for both your knowledgeable comments and most importantly often learn from them so thank you.

 

[JPRouve]

Quick question.
Do you and Paul operate as a team.
You both respond within seconds of eachother and your responses are almost telepathic.
This is a joke by the way and I have a great deal of respect for both your knowledgeable comments and most importantly often learn from them so thank you.

It's simply due to the fact that international laws is a boring subject with very little nuance, I used to hate it at the Uni. And Paul worked in a field that uses international laws daily.

 

[Maticmaker]

True.
But it is not as if there is a tried and tested process of leaving.
The reality is that both sides are learning by doing.

The primary problem is that of the border in Ireland which is proving far more complex than at first glance.

Spot on mate!
No one in the political elite, either in the UK or in the EU, ever envisage that anyone would ever want to leave the EU and just to be sure devised Art 50, (written by a Brit) this ensures the recalcitrant member either leaves on the EU's terms (i.e. sucks it up) or leaves without a deal (called crashing out).

We are now in a game of 'chicken' that May has to see it through, whatever the outcome, because she has nowhere else to go. The rest of the politicians at Westminster are wetting themselves about an 'accidental' no deal outcome and how they will explain this to their constituents. The EU is holding firm, behind Ireland (at least for the time being) but there are long glances across the table between those EU countries who will suffer very little by the UK departure and those that will get 'hammered' by a no deal.

No ones been here before, its Learning on the Job for all concerned. The experts and academics etc. will be writing books on this for the next quarter of a century, so at least someone will make some money!

Who will blink first?

 

[Raulduke]

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[Paul the Wolf]

Here we go with another day of pointless amendments. UK negotiating with themselves with 43 days to go. Kick the can down the road a bit further, nearly at the end of the road.

 

[sun_tzu]

Here we go with another day of pointless amendments. UK negotiating with themselves with 43 days to go. Kick the can down the road a bit further, nearly at the end of the road.

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I do wonder how much longer they are going to be able to get away with that... might the EU put a deadline of say 28th Feb... new proposal in writing or communication is cut off and no extension submitted after that date will be considered as all efforts turn to hard brexit preparation... might actually take something like that to change the policy from wait till the last day and have a deal or no deal to see if enough MP's blink

 

[sun_tzu]

Ahead of the debate on the UK's withdrawal from the EU and the subsequent votes, the Speaker John Bercow announces that he has selected the following amendments:

• Amendment a - the Labour frontbench amendment which requires the government to either give MPs a vote on the withdrawal agreement and political declaration on future UK-EU relations by 27 February, or make a statement saying there is no longer an agreement in principle with Brussels and so allow MPs to vote on - and amend - its planned next steps.
• Amendment i - the SNP amendment which seeks to postpone the Brexit date by at least three months.
• Amendment e - Conservative MP and Remain supporter Anna Soubry's amendment which instructs the government to publish within seven days "the most recent official briefing document relating to business and trade on the implications of a no-deal Brexit presented to cabinet".

I dont think any of those will pass to be honest

 

[Paul the Wolf]

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I do wonder how much longer they are going to be able to get away with that... might the EU put a deadline of say 28th Feb... new proposal in writing or communication is cut off and no extension submitted after that date will be considered as all efforts turn to hard brexit preparation... might actually take something like that to change the policy from wait till the last day and have a deal or no deal to see if enough MP's blink

The EU will wait to the last minute but that means for the UK to change direction (radically).

On the three amendments:
There's no point extending the date by 3 months if the UK will still be debating with itself in 3 months time.
The withdrawal agreement has been voted on and there are not going to be any changes, so are MPs going to change their mind.
Implications of no deal Brexit 43 days beforehand. What are they expecting it so say, it's going to be wonderful?

Unbelievable.

 

[Buster15]

Spot on mate!
No one in the political elite, either in the UK or in the EU, ever envisage that anyone would ever want to leave the EU and just to be sure devised Art 50, (written by a Brit) this ensures the recalcitrant member either leaves on the EU's terms (i.e. sucks it up) or leaves without a deal (called crashing out).

We are now in a game of 'chicken' that May has to see it through, whatever the outcome, because she has nowhere else to go. The rest of the politicians at Westminster are wetting themselves about an 'accidental' no deal outcome and how they will explain this to their constituents. The EU is holding firm, behind Ireland (at least for the time being) but there are long glances across the table between those EU countries who will suffer very little by the UK departure and those that will get 'hammered' by a no deal.

No ones been here before, its Learning on the Job for all concerned. The experts and academics etc. will be writing books on this for the next quarter of a century, so at least someone will make some money!

Who will blink first?

Blinking hell.
I hope it is not us.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Spot on mate!
No one in the political elite, either in the UK or in the EU, ever envisage that anyone would ever want to leave the EU and just to be sure devised Art 50, (written by a Brit) this ensures the recalcitrant member either leaves on the EU's terms (i.e. sucks it up) or leaves without a deal (called crashing out).

We are now in a game of 'chicken' that May has to see it through, whatever the outcome, because she has nowhere else to go. The rest of the politicians at Westminster are wetting themselves about an 'accidental' no deal outcome and how they will explain this to their constituents. The EU is holding firm, behind Ireland (at least for the time being) but there are long glances across the table between those EU countries who will suffer very little by the UK departure and those that will get 'hammered' by a no deal.

No ones been here before, its Learning on the Job for all concerned. The experts and academics etc. will be writing books on this for the next quarter of a century, so at least someone will make some money!

Who will blink first?

Which countries in the EU will be hammered , bearing in mind Ireland will clearly be the biggest sufferers by far of no deal apart from the UK and what do you mean by the blink from the EU, what are you expecting them to do?

 

[horsechoker]

"you turn if you want to, the lady's not for turning"

 

[sun_tzu]

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could happen
they would I assume vote with the government on the 3 amendments
a... would make no deal much harder to achieve so they wont support that
i... again makes no deal more unlikley so they wont support that
e... will show the economic assessment of no deal so they wont support that

so if they then abstain on the official government motion that makes some sense as it basically endorses not only seking amendments to the withderawal agreement (which they want and is in line with the last commons vote) but also endorses ruling out no deal (which they dont want even though its in line with the last commons vote)

basically nothing would pass - might backfire though and make it clear to may the only way her deal gets through is to soften brexit to get labour votes then jump in April / May before she gets pushed by the ERG

 

[horsechoker]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-talks-with-barnier-and-verhofstadt-next-week

Jeremy Corbyn is set to hold talks in Brussels next week with Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, as he seeks to break the Brexit impasse and persuade Theresa May to sign up to a customs union.

During a whistle-stop tour of the central figures in the Brexit talks, the Labour leader is also due to meet the European parliament’s Brexit coordinator, Guy Verhofstadt, EU sources have disclosed.
He is expected by officials in Brussels to offer further detail on his recent conditional offer of support for the prime minister’s deal, and to provide an update on the cross-party talks.

 

[sun_tzu]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-talks-with-barnier-and-verhofstadt-next-week

well that will be interesting... I hope barnier / Tusk just asks JC if he supports a second referendum then tweets the response

 

[Paul the Wolf]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-talks-with-barnier-and-verhofstadt-next-week

Hopefully the unicorns can then be put down once and for all.

 

[sun_tzu]

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ouch

 

[Buster15]

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ouch

Good. Just what the idiot deserves.
Odious disagreeable twat.

 

[Maticmaker]

Which countries in the EU will be hammered , bearing in mind Ireland will clearly be the biggest sufferers by far of no deal apart from the UK and what do you mean by the blink from the EU, what are you expecting them to do?

Ireland, plus any EU country that has a significant share of its exports to the UK, in some cases it may be in one sector only, in others it may be across different sectors, but they like the UK itself will take a hit from a no deal scenario... at least according to all the experts!

The 'blinking' contest (preliminary rounds) start today in the commons, will the ERG fail to back the government motion that includes for ruling out no deal? If they do will May then be able to say its their fault, i.e. "the ERG have weakened my position, and we cannot get any further movement from the EU on the backstop, therefore I'm calling off Brexit" (still in my opinion the most likely choice for her) and she will promptly resign.

By falling on her sword(for the good of the country) May's martyrdom ensures the next leader of the Tories will march to General Election victory on the back of it!

If however the ERG do support the Government today, then the EU will be the next contestant for May in her 'Blinking fest', will they believe May can pull it off, will they continue to support Ireland, or indeed will Ireland pull out itself (by agreeing to some local deal with the DUP/Brits) or will Ireland (and parts of the EU) join the UK in going to hell in a handcart... sorry, I mean a no deal outcome?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Ireland, plus any EU country that has a significant share of its exports to the UK, in some cases it may be in one sector only, in others it may be across different sectors, but they like the UK itself will take a hit from a no deal scenario... at least according to all the experts!

The 'blinking' contest (preliminary rounds) start today in the commons, will the ERG back the government motion that includes for ruling out no deal? If they do will May then be able to say its their fault, i.e. "the ERG have weakened my position, and we cannot get any further movement from the EU on the backstop, therefore I'm calling off Brexit" (still in my opinion the most likely choice for her) and she will promptly resign.

By falling on her sword(for the good of the country) May's martyrdom ensures the next leader of the Tories will march to General Election victory on the back of it!

If however the ERG do support the Government today, then the EU will be the next contestant for May in her 'Blinking fest', will they believe May can pull it off, will they continue to support Ireland, or indeed will Ireland pull out itself (by agreeing to some local deal with the DUP/Brits) or will Ireland (and parts of the EU) join the UK in going to hell in a handcart... sorry, I mean a no deal outcome?

But trade will still continue after a no deal. The biggest effect of no deal is not that trade will stop it just becomes more difficult and more expensive.

The prime effect of no deal is that frictionless trade will stop - I think the focus is in the wrong area. The rest of the EU still has frictionless trade between the member states, the UK would have no frictionless trade at all. This is the killer.

The EU will support Ireland and will not change the 4 freedoms so don't see how they can blink.
Nothing will change on the WA or the backstop, the only thing that can change is the political declaration where the UK change it's mind and head towards staying in the CU. But there are too many factions in the Uk parliament for there to be a consensus on anything including cancelling Brexit.

 

[sun_tzu]

The EU will support Ireland and will not change the 4 freedoms so don't see how they can blink.
Nothing will change on the WA or the backstop, the only thing that can change is the political declaration where the UK change it's mind and head towards staying in the CU. But there are too many factions in the Uk parliament for there to be a consensus on anything including cancelling Brexit.

I think the only way the EU moves its position is if Ireland request it

If Ireland believe a no deal brexit would be more damaging than a time limit for example (lets say for arguments sake with a 12 month notice period to allow preparations for switching to a no deal scenario) the EU may agree to that as it wouldnt impact the 4 freedoms etc

Of course there is a logic that the UK agreed the backstop - and therefore should honour that but if Ireland asked for it then perhaps they would?

That said I dont think Ireland will agree anything that in their eyes could change the good friday agreement so in reality I cant see them asking the EU for a change - but if we are literally days from the return of a hard border in Ireland then who knows it may be seen as the less shitty end of the stick

 

[sun_tzu]

by the way... i assume Gibraltar is going to have to go to a hard border - and what about the people who travel over that each day for work - its genuinely getting very little press at the moment but can the customs officials there actually deal with 20,000 extra checks a day? - especially as the vast majority of these will happen in a very congested time around work start and finish hours?

I mean even if half the checks fall in a 2 hour period in the morning and afternoon thats 2500 checks per hour

even a cursory glance at a passport and calling through the next person is probably 1 minute so one person could perhaps process 50 or 60 an hour

which would indicate they need to have around 50 extra customs officers working... and thats assuming they actually have the infrastructure (desks, queue facilities etc) to do that... and Id guess that simply the criminal record checks let alone the training period for a customs official takes longer than the remaining few weeks till brexit

 

[Siorac]

Exact same thing happened with the far-right Jobbik in Hungary a few years back, when they were still vocally anti-EU. They tried to burn the flag and failed for the same reason.

 

[JPRouve]

Exact same thing happened with the far-right Jobbik in Hungary a few years back, when they were still vocally anti-EU. They tried to burn the flag and failed for the same reason.

They stopped? There seems to be a trend here, when these groups get a little bit of exposure they bury that side.

 

[Siorac]

I'm not a brexiteer. I wanted to stay in. But I'm getting a little cheesed off with the almost total attitude in this thread that the EU has nothing to answer for.

Thing is, you keep hinting at some sort structural defects being present in the EU, something that should make the EU leaders take a long and hard look at themselves at this time. That they should consider that these defects led the UK away.

The reality, however, is that the UK never ever fully accepted freedom of movement and always wanted more and more concessions and as little integration as possible. That goes directly against what the EU is about.

Sure, the EU could change its entire purpose and reason for existence. Because really, that seems to be the only way to convince the British. But frankly, and I can't stress this enough: the UK is not THAT important. It would be preferable if they also bought into the idea of the EU. But you don't and seemingly never will.

 

[Siorac]

They stopped? There seems to be a trend here, when these groups get a little bit of exposure they bury that side.

Yes, these radical groups tend to realise that there is a glass ceiling for them, that fringe ideologies are unlikely to gain significant power unless there is a major upheaval. So they either stick to their message, keep their core and fail to rise above a certain level - or they try to "mellow" a bit, to attract people from the centre. Jobbik tried what we here called a "cuteness campaign" but they can't seem to break that glass ceiling.

 

[Honest John]

Thing is, you keep hinting at some sort structural defects being present in the EU, something that should make the EU leaders take a long and hard look at themselves at this time. That they should consider that these defects led the UK away.

The reality, however, is that the UK never ever fully accepted freedom of movement and always wanted more and more concessions and as little integration as possible. That goes directly against what the EU is about.

Sure, the EU could change its entire purpose and reason for existence. Because really, that seems to be the only way to convince the British. But frankly, and I can't stress this enough: the UK is not THAT important. It would be preferable if they also bought into the idea of the EU. But you don't and seemingly never will.

What was wrong with the Common Market?