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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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stevoc

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That is true, however this time I think public opinion in the rest of the UK will force any UK government (of whatever persuasion) to let the Irish sort it out themselves. I cannot see that there will be any massive public support for deploying British troops on the island of Ireland... ever again I should think!
I don't think it works like that though mate. I wasn't alive in the 60's but i imagine there wasn't too much enthusiasm in Britain about the Army being sent into NI back then either. But it had to be done because the situation escalated to the point that the Police couldn't handle. No one wants to ever see that again but if the situation here were to degenerate then the British government would have no choice but to deploy troops.

They can't just ignore their responsibilities to Northern Ireland and ''let the Irish sort it out themselves'' as you say. And i would be interested to know what exactly you mean by that if you wouldn't mind elaborating?
 

caid

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I don't think it works like that though mate. I wasn't alive in the 60's but i imagine there wasn't too much enthusiasm in Britain about the Army being sent into NI back then either. But it had to be done because the situation escalated to the point that the Police couldn't handle. No one wants to ever see that again but if the situation here were to degenerate then the British government would have no choice but to deploy troops.

They can't just ignore their responsibilities to Northern Ireland and ''let the Irish sort it out themselves'' as you say. And i would be interested to know what exactly you mean by that if you wouldn't mind elaborating?
Indeed. Half the political population in Northern Ireland flat out wont talk to the Irish government. The Northern Irish Assembly has been in total stalemate for years. The British have to be involved, theres no solution without them.
 

Maticmaker

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''let the Irish sort it out themselves'' as you say. And i would be interested to know what exactly you mean by that if you wouldn't mind elaborating?
I mean that at some point in the GFA it envisages a coming together of interests where there is a majority on the Island of Ireland, for at least closer ties between the two traditions, this as I understand it was how being in the EU helped matters?. Also as I understand it there is now a majority in NI for remaining in the EU, so that's a start! I have to confess I don't know how it would be resolved, but from the history of the island and from what I know from my some of my ancestors, the peaceful resolution is unlikely to be accomplished whilst third parties ( e.g. GB/EU/USA) exercise undue influence.

Given that the majority over the whole Island seems now seems to agreed on something, and that there is provision for self government via Stormont, which the Government in the Republic of Ireland could make overtures to, maybe in some Confederation of Ireland (if Confederation is the right term?) formation, now would be the time to do it? If direct rule is restored that window of opportunity, especially if Brexit proceeds to some sort of conclusion (although admittedly that is hard to imagine at the moment) is likely to be closed, perhaps for the foreseeable future.

I take your point about GB's responsibility but if there is ever going to be resolution it will in the end have to be sorted by the Irish themselves.
 

Smores

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That is true, however this time I think public opinion in the rest of the UK will force any UK government (of whatever persuasion) to let the Irish sort it out themselves. I cannot see that there will be any massive public support for deploying British troops on the island of Ireland... ever again I should think!
Exactly what army do you think currently resides in northern ireland?
 

unchanged_lineup

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stevoc

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I mean that at some point in the GFA it envisages a coming together of interests where there is a majority on the Island of Ireland, for at least closer ties between the two traditions, this as I understand it was how being in the EU helped matters?. Also as I understand it there is now a majority in NI for remaining in the EU, so that's a start! I have to confess I don't know how it would be resolved, but from the history of the island and from what I know from my some of my ancestors, the peaceful resolution is unlikely to be accomplished whilst third parties ( e.g. GB/EU/USA) exercise undue influence.

Given that the majority over the whole Island seems now seems to agreed on something, and that there is provision for self government via Stormont, which the Government in the Republic of Ireland could make overtures to, maybe in some Confederation of Ireland (if Confederation is the right term?) formation, now would be the time to do it? If direct rule is restored that window of opportunity, especially if Brexit proceeds to some sort of conclusion (although admittedly that is hard to imagine at the moment) is likely to be closed, perhaps for the foreseeable future.

I take your point about GB's responsibility but if there is ever going to be resolution it will in the end have to be sorted by the Irish themselves.
Ok fair enough mate i get what you're saying and i think thats generally what everyone (most people) in Ireland would like to see. Thats similar to my hopes for the future anyway. Whether we stay in the UK, join a United Ireland or even become independent (unlikely) we build a lasting peace and put all the sectarianism and animosity behind us. But what you're talking about will likely take generations, how many i don't know but 2-3 at least in my opinion. There needs to be time between the troubles which is only 20 years ago and any future real lasting peace. Theres still a lot of bitter people on both sides and that bitterness just won't disappear, but their children will hopefully be less bitter and their children even less. That will take a long time i doubt i'll see it and i'm only in my 30's, right now i and many others think things here could easily and quickly spiral out of control again.

Being in the EU and the freedoms it provides has certainly helped the situation. With the GFA the rights to citizenship, identity, freedom of movement etc. it placed NI in a situation where it is basically part of the UK and Ireland in all but name. Everyone is equal, everyone has the same opportunities and rights. Which means theres little or no support for paramilitary groups and their goals. The GFA was a compromise no one was entirely happy with but the vast majority were satisfied enough and it was certainly better than continued conflict. But Brexit is putting all that in jeopardy and in all honesty an EU referendum shouldn't have even been considered until a time that Ireland is stable.

But i have to point out in the context of your earlier post where the situation has possibly escalated to the stage where the British government has to contemplate deploying troops again. Then that definitely wouldn't be the time to ''let the Irish sort it out themselves''.
 
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Smores

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As far as I am aware no army is deployed, as in keeping the peace, its down to the NI Police?
Not sure what you mean by resides?
Well you're saying we should just leave it up to the Irish and not involve the British army by which i assume you mean the irish regiments garrisoned there?

The idea that you can "leave it up the irish" without involving the NI regiments seems a bit far fetched
 

Maticmaker

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They're as deployed as the British Army is anywhere else in the UK
Yes thank you, I now understand what you mean by reside, but with respect that is being stationed at a barracks. What I meant by deploying on the streets, was in lieu of Police actions. It is difficult to see that sort of deployment being implemented again like it was before, especially as public opinion in GB likely to be against such actions... but hey what the heck, if the government can ignore the 'will of the people' on Brexit, it may well deploy troops on the streets in NI, regardless of public opinion!
 

stevoc

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Indeed. Half the political population in Northern Ireland flat out wont talk to the Irish government. The Northern Irish Assembly has been in total stalemate for years. The British have to be involved, theres no solution without them.
For the foreseeable future definitely mate. Some people in Britain seem to be under the mistaken impression that the troubles are gone for good and the relative peace that Ireland has enjoyed for 20 years is permanent. But the GFA was only the beginning, real peace is still decades away in my opinion.
 

unchanged_lineup

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Yes thank you, I now understand what you mean by reside, but with respect that is being stationed at a barracks. What I meant by deploying on the streets, was in lieu of Police actions. It is difficult to see that sort of deployment being implemented again like it was before, especially as public opinion in GB likely to be against such actions... but hey what the heck, if the government can ignore the 'will of the people' on Brexit, it may well deploy troops on the streets in NI, regardless of public opinion!
I dunno, I think it's not difficult at all to imagine situations where they're deployed again. A hard border and the chain of events it would set off would make deployment pretty much inevitable.
 

Smores

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Yes thank you, I now understand what you mean by reside, but with respect that is being stationed at a barracks. What I meant by deploying on the streets, was in lieu of Police actions. It is difficult to see that sort of deployment being implemented again like it was before, especially as public opinion in GB likely to be against such actions... but hey what the heck, if the government can ignore the 'will of the people' on Brexit, it may well deploy troops on the streets in NI, regardless of public opinion!
I'm not sure public opinion matters if bombs start going off. It won't be a case of "not our problem". There's a very good chance it won't be contained to irish shores either.
 

Maticmaker

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But i have to point out in the context of your earlier post where the situation has possibly escalated to the stage where the British government has to contemplate deploying troops again. Then that definitely wouldn't be the time to ''let the Irish sort it out themselves''.
No, of course that would not be the time, as you say the UK government (NI and GB) has responsibilities.

My point was, a bit like Brexit itself, anyone on the mainland GB who does not have a connection (past or present) with the problems of the Island of Ireland are likely to be against, even more than last time, troops deployed in lieu of Police 'keeping the peace' actions, simply because at the moment the perceived Irish problem over the backstop is not playing well in many areas, don't forget collective ignorance is (or can be) a lethal form of blindness!

Ultimately, the destiny of the Island of Ireland, it is a problem for the Irish to sort themselves, as you say it may take generations to accomplish, but if third parties 'butt out' there is a chance, albeit a slim one, of the Irish (collectively) seizing the day (caused by Brexit) to move things along.
 

stevoc

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No, of course that would not be the time, as you say the UK government (NI and GB) has responsibilities.

My point was, a bit like Brexit itself, anyone on the mainland GB who does not have a connection (past or present) with the problems of the Island of Ireland are likely to be against, even more than last time, troops deployed in lieu of Police 'keeping the peace' actions, simply because at the moment the perceived Irish problem over the backstop is not playing well in many areas, don't forget collective ignorance is (or can be) a lethal form of blindness!
I understand the British public would be against troops being deployed but it could possibly be unavoidable. If they're needed then they're needed, public opinion won't matter. The PSNI like the RUC of the past are not trained or equipped to contain paramilitary groups.

Ultimately, the destiny of the Island of Ireland, it is a problem for the Irish to sort themselves, as you say it may take generations to accomplish, but if third parties 'butt out' there is a chance, albeit a slim one, of the Irish (collectively) seizing the day (caused by Brexit) to move things along.
I get what you're saying mate but even setting aside Britains responsibilities towards NI, there is still a significant number of people in NI who see themselves as and are by their rights British. They will likely always want Britain to be involved whatever happens in the future.

I have always thought that even if we voted for a United Ireland i would like to see the GFA carry on and everyone here still have the right to Irish, UK citizenship or both. Even in a United Ireland people will still feel British and that needs to be respected. Ignoring people's identity and blocking people's rights is after all how all the trouble started in Ireland. So i envisage the British having to be involved for a very long time yet.
 

Buster15

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I completely agree.

If Brexit has taught us anything, its that you shouldn't offer the public an option you dont want them to take.
Or to put another way - don't ask a question if you don't know what to do with the answer.
 

Shinjch

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Hilarious that Annunziata Rees-Mogg is the first candidate for euro elections in Farage's Brexit party.

Just saw that Paul got there first, still incredible. She is in good company with Nige, having failed to win a seat in the commons a couple of times.
 

Stick

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I understand the British public would be against troops being deployed but it could possibly be unavoidable. If they're needed then they're needed, public opinion won't matter. The PSNI like the RUC of the past are not trained or equipped to contain paramilitary groups.



I get what you're saying mate but even setting aside Britains responsibilities towards NI, there is still a significant number of people in NI who see themselves as and are by their rights British. They will likely always want Britain to be involved whatever happens in the future.

I have always thought that even if we voted for a United Ireland i would like to see the GFA carry on and everyone here still have the right to Irish, UK citizenship or both. Even in a United Ireland people will still feel British and that needs to be respected. Ignoring people's identity and blocking people's rights is after all how all the trouble started in Ireland. So i envisage the British having to be involved for a very long time yet.
Very good point. It's only in understanding each others identity and respecting each other that we can move forward and live together peacefully.
 

Buster15

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I understand the British public would be against troops being deployed but it could possibly be unavoidable. If they're needed then they're needed, public opinion won't matter. The PSNI like the RUC of the past are not trained or equipped to contain paramilitary groups.



I get what you're saying mate but even setting aside Britains responsibilities towards NI, there is still a significant number of people in NI who see themselves as and are by their rights British. They will likely always want Britain to be involved whatever happens in the future.

I have always thought that even if we voted for a United Ireland i would like to see the GFA carry on and everyone here still have the right to Irish, UK citizenship or both. Even in a United Ireland people will still feel British and that needs to be respected. Ignoring people's identity and blocking people's rights is after all how all the trouble started in Ireland. So i envisage the British having to be involved for a very long time yet.
British troops are already deployed in NI. A surprisingly large number including Special Forces.
 

Paul the Wolf

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You see. I always knew you were a closet Socialist.
The first time I ever voted, I actually voted Labour in October 74. The last Tory PM I voted for was Major in 92. I vote for whatever suits me at the time. Not an ardent supporter of anyone. Would never vote Tory now if was I still there. Having said that I would never have voted for Corbyn either