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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Tarrou

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Seems like a non starter this. What’s Boris up to here?
 

Smores

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He is a genius negotiator. Like the haggling scene from Monty Python's Life of Brian.
It's odd but his aim isn't any particular deal it's to secure whatever output will boost his image/electability. I imagine they've done the polling and know this is still considered as getting brexit done and he'll be lauded for it.

Deep down we all know that previous words no longer matter in politics as long as the direction of travel is considered correct, it's batshit but that's where we are.

A) he gets it through and wins the heart of the brexiteers
B) he doesn't, he blames parliament and then gets to campaign on an actual deal promising to implement it
 

buchansleftleg

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Yeah something seems off about this.
I think he just wants a deal....he knows it won't get through parliament and doesn't care. It just needs to be different from May's deal.

He is playing the "drain the swamp" playbook from Trump so is hoping that people will be frustrated by Parliament saying "no" again.

That's why the tories are trying to make out a deal is "imminent" and are making positive noises...they know it won't get through parliament.
 

Kentonio

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Isn't a border in the Irish Sea a far worse outcome than the backstop as far as Biris and the ERG concerned? So his plan is to negotiate a worse deal.than May's that they all hated and voted against?
The Brexiteer extremists are super paranoid that there will be a second ref unless they get this done quickly, and a lot of Labour MPs are fearful of a no deal unless a deal is reached. Others from Leave constituencies also fear a second ref.

Feels like Boris is gambling that fear will get this through parliament regardless of what the DUP do, and that he can hit his promise to leave by the 31st. Most Tory voters won’t care about NI being sold down the river and he’ll be the guy who delivered Brexit. Even if the deal is rejected by parliament he can run a GE on Brexit Boris vs Parliament against the will of the people and likely win.

If MPs want to stop him, they need to vote this shit down and immediately get him out of office with a GNU in place. Probably won’t happen, but right now his position is looking fairly strong otherwise.
 

sun_tzu

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Assuming Boris manages to get all the conservatives and all the dup (he may well not)
I think he could rely on a number of the now ex conservatives who voted for Mays deal in the past... Clarke Hammond gauke... I'm guessing he wouldn't need too many other votes

As I say I think it will have a referendum amandment tagged on to it and pass with the amendment
 

Brownie85

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Assuming Boris manages to get all the conservatives and all the dup (he may well not)
I think he could rely on a number of the now ex conservatives who voted for Mays deal in the past... Clarke Hammond gauke... I'm guessing he wouldn't need too many other votes

As I say I think it will have a referendum amandment tagged on to it and pass with the amendment
Thinking about it, why would they pass it with a referendum amendment if they despise the deal so much?
They hate it and think it's bad for Britain, but will vote it through with a stipulation that the UK gets to vote on it with an option of remain. So based on that, with a lot of people not bothering to do their research on what the deal actually includes, they're happy to let the public decide? What if the public vote for the deal? The MP's obviously don't like it and don't want to pass it, so if a referendum states take the deal they're just going to do so?

My betting is they'd back everything on remain to win, and if it doesn't, they have no choice but to accept this deal, which they don't like. That is why Corbyn doesn't want to add a stipulation of a referendum before an election. He wants the chance to negotiate his own deal then put it to the public. He doesn't want the public to vote on a "damaging Tory Brexit", which is why, in my opinion, he'd whip against supporting a referendum on a Tory deal and flat out rejecting it and going for an extension/GE. Any pre-election referendum would be another straight Leave/Remain if Labour have their way i'd imagine.

Lib Dems won't want a referendum either, as they want to revoke A50 and if a referendum says take the deal, they'd have to oblige, which i'm pretty damn certain they won't want too
 

sun_tzu

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If Boris thinks it's the only way to get it through he might sign up and I think enough labour SNP and libs who want a 2nd referendum would back it as well
That said it would also require a longer extension and a government that could last 6 months... So voting for it would be no guarantee it happened
 

stevoc

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How do the posters from NI feel?
Obviously this deal still has a long way to go before its a reality and we don't have all the details yet. But from what i've heard it sounds infinitely better than No Deal would be for Northern Ireland. I think theres a good chance it will even boost the economy here. As others have said it would put NI in the unique position of essentially being in both territories.
 

Brownie85

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If Boris thinks it's the only way to get it through he might sign up and I think enough labour SNP and libs who want a 2nd referendum would back it as well
That said it would also require a longer extension and a government that could last 6 months... So voting for it would be no guarantee it happened
I don't think Boris would take the risk of a second referendum, as he, and the Tory party have constantly said they will respect the first referendum.
Labour did the same, they promised to respect it, then over time they've basically said screw the result, we think you got it wrong, we want to stay.

Plus, if Boris wanted a second referendum, why do you think he's been pushing so hard for an Election?? He wants an election because he knows at this moment in time, there is a very high chance that the Tory party would cruise to a majority, meaning his deal, this one, or any other, would be easy to get through. In the same sense, thats why Labour want a second referendum. They know their chances at an election are slim, so they want to try and stop brexit regardless. Corbyn on the other hand is extremely confident and wants to go for that majority.

So, as it stands, there won't be a second referendum before a general election. I'm pretty certain of that. Now who wins that GE could change everything.

Just think of this too... Both Labour and Conservatives support a second referendum, Leave voters of both parties feel betrayed, who do they go for? Only one party willing to get into power and pretty much pull us out of the EU no deal. Thats a pretty scary prospect, and with how volatile things are at the moment, it's safe to say anything is possible
 

madzo2007

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How do the posters from NI feel?
If Brexit is going to happen this is probably the best outcome for NI, it’s hugely better than No Deal which would be bad news for us.

We get the best of both worlds in theory and hopefully give the local economy a boost. But as @stevoc this still has a long way to go before it comes a reality. Be interesting to see how Boris spins this to the DUP and what the actual terms of the Irish Sea border are.
 

PhilipB

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If Brexit is going to happen this is probably the best outcome for NI, it’s hugely better than No Deal which would be bad news for us.

We get the best of both worlds in theory and hopefully give the local economy a boost. But as @stevoc this still has a long way to go before it comes a reality. Be interesting to see how Boris spins this to the DUP and what the actual terms of the Irish Sea border are.
Agreed, it's infinitely better than no deal for us.
 

Mr Pigeon

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I think he just wants a deal....he knows it won't get through parliament and doesn't care. It just needs to be different from May's deal.

He is playing the "drain the swamp" playbook from Trump so is hoping that people will be frustrated by Parliament saying "no" again.

That's why the tories are trying to make out a deal is "imminent" and are making positive noises...they know it won't get through parliament.
Surely people aren't that dumb...

Wait, I just read that out loud. Never mind.
 

711

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I don't think Boris would take the risk of a second referendum, as he, and the Tory party have constantly said they will respect the first referendum.
Labour did the same, they promised to respect it, then over time they've basically said screw the result, we think you got it wrong, we want to stay.

Plus, if Boris wanted a second referendum, why do you think he's been pushing so hard for an Election?? He wants an election because he knows at this moment in time, there is a very high chance that the Tory party would cruise to a majority, meaning his deal, this one, or any other, would be easy to get through. In the same sense, thats why Labour want a second referendum. They know their chances at an election are slim, so they want to try and stop brexit regardless. Corbyn on the other hand is extremely confident and wants to go for that majority.

So, as it stands, there won't be a second referendum before a general election. I'm pretty certain of that. Now who wins that GE could change everything.

Just think of this too... Both Labour and Conservatives support a second referendum, Leave voters of both parties feel betrayed, who do they go for? Only one party willing to get into power and pretty much pull us out of the EU no deal. Thats a pretty scary prospect, and with how volatile things are at the moment, it's safe to say anything is possible
Just my opinion but you've completely misread Labour. Firstly their official policy is not to remain, it is to leave with a wonderfully negotiated superior deal that only they can get, secondly whilst the members might want to stay, and to have a second referendum to achieve that, the leaders have twisted and turned for some time to avoid one, and thirdly their leaders have never quite dispelled the idea that they were always actually anti-EU in the first place. No idea what they'll come up with next though, I must admit.
 

Wibble

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Surely people aren't that dumb...

Wait, I just read that out loud. Never mind.
They keep voting the Tories in who don't even hide that they only care about the top 1%. Why do people vote for this shower of shit?

Corbyn isn't great but a sock puppet would do a better job than Bojo and his merry band of clowns. Greatest con trick ever is getting poor people to vote for Trump, Bojo or Scomo in Australia (with added evangelical paedo protection). Don't know why I specified poor people as it applies to all but the very wealthiest in society.
 
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NWRed

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From the BBC ladies and Gents

Have UK voters changed their minds on Brexit?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50043549

loads of graphs comparing 5 different outcomes, only 1 of which was on the ballot paper in 2016 so in no way tells us whether people have changed their minds, then buried at the bottom of the article is the answer:

"True, most polls suggest - and have done so for some time - that the balance of opinion might be tilted narrowly in favour of remaining a member of the EU. On average, this is by 53% to 47%" - so the answer is, yes, they have, great, why wasn't that the first fecking they said then. Unfortunately the answer to why they didn't put that information in the first paragraph becomes immediately obvious, the articles purposed is to discredit that polling, not report on it:

"However, this lead for Remain rests primarily on the views expressed by those who did not vote three years ago - and perhaps might not do so again.

In truth, nobody can be sure what would happen if there were to be another referendum."

BBC - Boris Broadcasing Corporation

/rant

EDIT: and by "suggest that the balance of opinion might be tilted in favour of remaining a member of the EU" they actually mean "clearly and consistently show the public would now vote to remain by a larger majority than the 2016 vote to leave."
 
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Kentonio

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FT reporting sources say the DUP being offered billions as a sweetener
Unless it’s being paid into their personal accounts, I’m not sure how that would compensate for them embarrassing themselves with a total 180 and a betrayal of their supposed red lines.
 

golden_blunder

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Border in Irish sea could give NI a competitive edge against rest of UK. I'm against brexit but if it had to happen then this is potentially great news for NI economically.
Yeah I agree though part of me wants to see the Tories lose everything they table. Part of me also wants those who voted for it to feel the pain for the rest of their miserable lives. Tories have played the long con here, they have everyone where they want them now. Once brexit happens, they can crack on with their plans for dismantling the NHS etc. Labour can’t stop them
 

Smores

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How could anyone vote for this garbage in a second referendum. Gove already running to the press to say any forecasts are mumbo-jumbo :rolleyes:
 

sglowrider

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How could anyone vote for this garbage in a second referendum. Gove already running to the press to say any forecasts are mumbo-jumbo :rolleyes:
But with the old WW2 British Empire bulldog spirit and ingenuity, you can add back +378billion back to the coffers within 12 months of exit. Simples.
 

Smores

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Just think of all the good that the no deal prep money and bung money to the DUP could have done. Another 10 billion to climate change efforts would be significant but we've spaffed it up the wall on some ideological nonsense instead.
 

Traub

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Obviously this deal still has a long way to go before its a reality and we don't have all the details yet. But from what i've heard it sounds infinitely better than No Deal would be for Northern Ireland. I think theres a good chance it will even boost the economy here. As others have said it would put NI in the unique position of essentially being in both territories.
If Brexit is going to happen this is probably the best outcome for NI, it’s hugely better than No Deal which would be bad news for us.

We get the best of both worlds in theory and hopefully give the local economy a boost. But as @stevoc this still has a long way to go before it comes a reality. Be interesting to see how Boris spins this to the DUP and what the actual terms of the Irish Sea border are.
Border in Irish sea could give NI a competitive edge against rest of UK. I'm against brexit but if it had to happen then this is potentially great news for NI economically.
If Brexit does happen, then I really hope for your guys sake this is the way it goes then. It feels like NI has been completely shafted in this whole process, and it comes across that the government view NI as a major annoyance stopping their plans. It would be great if in the end the government causes NI to be in the best position out of everyone in the UK.
 

horsechoker

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Just think of all the good that the no deal prep money and bung money to the DUP could have done. Another 10 billion to climate change efforts would be significant but we've spaffed it up the wall on some ideological nonsense instead.
Saving the Conservative party is more important than the environment. What would we do without the Conservatives?
 

golden_blunder

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Just think of all the good that the no deal prep money and bung money to the DUP could have done. Another 10 billion to climate change efforts would be significant but we've spaffed it up the wall on some ideological nonsense instead.
You’re living in cloud cuckoo land if you think this government would give even a small percentage of that to climate change efforts
 

balaks

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If Brexit does happen, then I really hope for your guys sake this is the way it goes then. It feels like NI has been completely shafted in this whole process, and it comes across that the government view NI as a major annoyance stopping their plans. It would be great if in the end the government causes NI to be in the best position out of everyone in the UK.
I agree but I fear that the fecking DUP will once again do their best to stop it happening. They really are arseholes.
 

17Larsson

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I agree but I fear that the fecking DUP will once again do their best to stop it happening. They really are arseholes.
A direct quote from Sammy Wilson on Newstalk last week.

"The referendum was a UK wide referendum. Northern Ireland voting results are irrelevant"

Irrelevant.

From a man who is elected by the people of Northern Ireland
 

Pexbo

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You’re living in cloud cuckoo land if you think this government would give even a small percentage of that to climate change efforts
It would have gone on corporate tax breaks which in turn would have trickled down to the employees exited the UK and headed for offshore tax havens.