"Those whom the Gods would destroy they first make mad"... it sounds like our Parliament is top of the 'Gods' list for destruction!
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
"Those whom the Gods would destroy they first make mad"... it sounds like our Parliament is top of the 'Gods' list for destruction!
Which trade agreements, under the new agreements the intention is to not ship at prices under the local price, oddly enough the argument prevously held was the prices were too high so poor African people couldn't afford it.
CAP will be replaced by Uk farming subsidies in the UK as fairly sure the government will look after the Uk farmers before foreign farmers.
If tariffs are abolished by the Uk unilaterally that applies to all countries which is strange because if it applies to all countries that means any country can dump anything they like on the UK which is what you were arguing against in the case of low-priced milk in Africa .
Labour will now back a GE Corbyn says.
electiON
December election .Yay
Can Labour even win? Coalition with the SNP perhaps?
Hope it's the 9th, I'm in London on business on the 12th so would have to try and sort a postal vote.
Doubt it. Best Labour can hope for is another hung parliament leaving tories scrambling for a partner.
With the rumblings that rival Unionist parties wont now give up close seats to the DUP, this is terrible news for Arlene and co.
There just isnt enough time to turn aroind the 'We dont represent NI, we represent GB', chat when they thought they were well in with London. Now Abortion and Same sex marraiges are implemented because of cash for ash and it doesnt look good.
There just isnt enough time to turn aroind the 'We dont represent NI, we represent GB', chat when they thought they were well in with London. Now Abortion and Same sex marraiges are implemented because of cash for ash and it doesnt look good.
Nigel Dodds in big danger if the UUP follow through with that.
I was not arguing against this. I'd be delighted if the EU and/or the UK (ideally reciprocally) unilaterally abolished all import tariffs and also abolished the CAP.
Whether the UK would replace the EU farming subsidies we can only speculate if they would or to what degree, hopefully they wouldn't and if they did they'd slash them considerably.
Labour won’t get in until Corbin’s dead.
Not with Corbyn in charge - I don't see any way out of this Brexit mess currently. People will still vote for the tories.
Outright I doubt it
Since WW2 they have recorded the following
Year - MPs
45 - 393
50 - 315
51 - 295
53 - 277
59 - 258
64 - 317
66 - 364
70 - 288
74 - 301
74 - 319
79 - 269
83 - 209
87 - 229
92 - 271
97 - 419
01 - 413
05 - 356
10 - 258
15 - 232
17 - 262
19 - ?200-240?
Looking at the polling in terms of leader popularity they are very close to 1983 figures and personally i think if the brextit party targets labour leave seats in a pact with the conservatives they will be around the 200 mark
Betting markets suggest somewhere around 230
https://www.paddypower.com/politics/uk-next-general-election
essentially they are going to need something like 100 MP's extra to form a working majority assuming brexit party does not decimate them (i.e. take about 10% of their seats)
Its possible the libs and SNP could have around 100 between them if both performed well
I dont think the libs would enter a formal coalition with Labour - or at least not with corbyn - possibly confidence and supply to get a referendum over the line????
Certainly the conservatives would probably have first shot at forming a government (if they offered the libs a 2nd european referendum then libs might go with that on a confidence and supply basis anyway)
It seems unlikely Labour could win but 6 weeks is a long campaign and events dear boy... events
Conservative majority currently seems most likely I think - possibly with a Brexit / DUP partner if necessary to get the numbers (I am assuming the DUP could be brought to keep corbyn out of power)
i think the brexit partys stance will play a big part
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...ally-as-farage-seeks-electoral-pact-l2cvbp68r
If they have an electoral pact with the conservatives I think the conservatives know that it would probably help with a victory - but may leave them subject to the ERG and Farrage crippling the free trade talks for a hard brexit.
I have money on:
Labour getting their lowest seats since WW2 (208 or less)
A conservative majority
Libs getting over 40 seats
Think Boris would have liked to have got the deal passed before a GE, which would wipe out Lib Dems and Brexit Party, but practically, he can't get it passed without amendments that would prevent it getting passed, so can see why he went for GE instead. But it does get a GE as a pseudo-referendum which is what he wanted--if it was based on things like their past performance, doubt they would want a GE.
I also think that getting a deal before calling the GE will take the rug out from the Brexit Party, now Farage is forced from a Brexit vs. Remain battle into a No Deal vs. Deal battle, and I think he can only win that with a small minority of extremists. Further, due to the massive headache that hung parliaments, coalition parliaments, have created, I doubt any voter wants an election to return another of those, only to lead to another GE sooner rather than later. Due to this, I expect tactical voting to severely affect the smaller parties, in particular TBP and Lib Dems, with their prior support not translating into election votes and seats. In terms of splitting of the vote, I can see Lib Dems more effectively splitting the Remain vote and adversely affecting Labour, than TBP affecting the Tories, in part because of the mishmash policies of Labour, because of Corbyn himself, and Lib Dems going unequivocally Remain and Revoke. For all these reasons, plus polling trends, I predict a Conversative Landslide majority win.
I also think that getting a deal before calling the GE will take the rug out from the Brexit Party, now Farage is forced from a Brexit vs. Remain battle into a No Deal vs. Deal battle, and I think he can only win that with a small minority of extremists. Further, due to the massive headache that hung parliaments, coalition parliaments, have created, I doubt any voter wants an election to return another of those, only to lead to another GE sooner rather than later. Due to this, I expect tactical voting to severely affect the smaller parties, in particular TBP and Lib Dems, with their prior support not translating into election votes and seats. In terms of splitting of the vote, I can see Lib Dems more effectively splitting the Remain vote and adversely affecting Labour, than TBP affecting the Tories, in part because of the mishmash policies of Labour, because of Corbyn himself, and Lib Dems going unequivocally Remain and Revoke. For all these reasons, plus polling trends, I predict a Conversative Landslide majority win.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49798197 Latest Poll Tracker, interesting to notice the trends, and timing of trend changes in it. TBP trending down since Johnson became PM. Conservatives only party trending up, and in particular, recently since he got his deal.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Thats what makes all this so comical
Surely it would be in both Labour and Tory interests to have the Brexit deal done before a GE, then TBP and the Lib-dems return to being also rans. It then becomes a straight fight on traditional grounds between Boris and Jeremy.... oh No, on second thoughts maybe not!
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
And yet she's surprised when people accuse her of bias...
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
"Stop doing what we don't want or we'll pull every bill"
Yup that's sovereignty
Yup that's sovereignty
At we are losing Kate Hoey if we get an election.
what would the next move be... confidence motion I assume?
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Don't waste this time, they will, they always do.
Jess Philips on form again.
Amendments to the bill are being published on the Parliament website.
So far, they include:
Hold on, what's this? Sounds like a plan!
So far, they include:
- Giving EU citizens the vote
- Giving 16 and 17-year-olds the vote
- Changing the election date to 9 December
- Changing the election date to 7 December
- Changing the election date to 7 May 2020 and holding a referendum first
Hold on, what's this? Sounds like a plan!
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Zero chance it passes with the EU citizens or 16-18 year olds amendments.
Edit: never mind then.
Edit: never mind then.
Probably but cannot see an election until just before deadline or even another extension. Parliament will be in limbo.
Looks like we will have an election then.
Time to start another thread then on general election 2019. And time to start brushing up on tactical voting to avoid a Johnson majority.
Lyndsay Hoyle's job application will have gone down well with the conservatives
The only tactic I can imagine that prevents a Johnson government is the physical removal of everywhere that's not a metropolitan area from the Midlands downwards. A fecking Brexit election so we can listen to a party tell us that they'll get out the EU which is "what the people want", that they are somehow not part of Parliament, an organisation they will continue to portray as being against the country's population. It's a disaster and the ripples spreading out from the impact will last generations. The feckening will be upon us.
Oliver Dowden is a waste of skin and bouffant.
He just rocked up late for the committee stage.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date