If they're elected to government then god help us all.
Actually it'll be grand, they can cover the costs of covid-19 and brexit with their magical money tree.
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Actually it'll be grand, they can cover the costs of covid-19 and brexit with their magical money tree.
In short , fines, trade and economic sanctions and suspension of part or parts of any trade deal should there be one, which is looking bit unlikely at present unless Boris does a U-turn, not unknown I believe.
It's largely symbolic though, I would say. The Courts can't do much until the UK law is really been adopted, since it's not 'real' until then. After that, the whole process will likely take multiple years, by which time the EU will have finished their trade talks with the UK (whatever the outcome) and the case will have become obsolete.
Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't think this will impress the Tories much.
Just the tabling of the bill has led to the start of the action , doesn't have to be in law just the intention. The process may take years but It becomes real on the 1st January if the UK break the WA and GFA.
Furthermore it means that is almost no chance of a trade deal being signed. Reality starts on 1st January whether there is a trade deal or not.
It's no longer a game and a fantasy and not being taken seriously enough by the UK.
still think there will be some fudge of a deal pulled off in the next 2 weeks that both sides can spin as a win
seems a compromise over fishing isnt that far away according to reports and if the UK are giving ground there it suggests to me that they are probably making some progress on state aid as well - wont be time to do a rea deal so we will end up with some initial trading rules which will basically be a 2 / 3 year transition where nothing much changes ... unless boris can find some way to Cun! that up - which I wouldnt put past him
Not exactly, the withdrawal agreement includes actual and potential violations of the agreement. It involves the joint committee and eventually an arbitration panel, that is supposed to be established by the joint committee.
Whether the EU make Boris repeal it before a trade deal is signed or not, the spinners will proclaim the device a success and the only reason we got a deal.
Then they'll all pretend they were in on the gambit and the arguments falsely made about why we needed it for protection will be long forgotten.
The past is alterable etc
Then they'll all pretend they were in on the gambit and the arguments falsely made about why we needed it for protection will be long forgotten.
The past is alterable etc
And the gullible masses will go along with it.
Regarding Brexit, the UK is like a super tanker. Just plowing on unable to change course or direction. Even though it knows there is a massive waterfall ahead, hoping that the waterfall isn't really there but with no idea what to do if it is.
And it most certainly is.
The fishing thing seems to be a temporary 3 year extension of EU fishing rights proposed by the UK - don't think that will resolve much for either side.
There won't be time to do a real deal, but I'm still struggling to see how any type of deal can be done, trust has definitely been evaporated by Johnson's actions and I can't even see how any fudge can be done.
Whatever happens regarding a deal , come the of 1st January there will be a customs border around the UK - normally in the Irish Sea and around the island of Great Britain - how the UK copes with this is beyond me. The gravity of this I still don't think has struck the UK because of the hopeless media.
The only thing that has really surprised me during this whole farce was how easy Johnson signed the WA and put the border in the Irish Sea. Originally I though it was because Johnson couldn't care less about Northern Ireland but it was more because he had no intention of honouring it, didn't think the UK would stoop that low.
It might go past 15 October (I don’t think that is a real hard deadline) but I tend to agree that they’ll agree on some skeleton deal in the next 6 weeks on which we’ll spend a huge amount of time in the coming years trying to flesh out and supplement. Brexit is a state of mind and a process but, like communism, not really a concrete destination with an arrival date.
yes i think boris said he would withdraw from talks unless progress was being made by 15th October (which is I think the special EU leader meeting where im susre the Eu would say the same if there was no progress) - but if there is progress by then its quite possible we could be in November / December before businesses know what rules are n place for Jan
But that's a separate mechanism, right? I thought the EU was going through the Courts, not through the arbitration panel set up by the withdrawal agreement.
Also, once the new UK law has been adopted, wouldn't it also allow the UK to simply dismiss the arbitration panel? Cause if so, it would be impossible to use the panel set up by the agreement to challenge the UK on creating a law that allows them to ignore the agreement.
And the posh twats are telling their mates to invest in lifeboats (whilst they secretly own lifeboat building companies)
No, the commission started the infraction procedure by sending a formal notice letter to the british government. I'm not sure why people are talking about court.
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Not a lot of progress. Inevitable outcome looms.
Not defending Sinn Fein here. More of a general point.
The "magic money tree" line is a bit rich, if you'll excuse the pun.
Because finance is available for most nations. That is the nature of national scale economics. The question should be, what are they investing in and will it be a valuable asset for the countries future...
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Yep. The "good faith" clause has already been broken. Irrespective of whether the House of Lords pass the bill or not.
Imagine Jan 2021, no deal, import/export duties and delays, legal action being taken against us by the very countries who are closest geographically and are the largest bulk of our trade.
It is an absolute clusterfeck at this stage. Potential for economic suicide.
Looks like some of the heads of state are today hinting a deal might be there to be done. Someone will probably have to talk France into compromise on fisheries and the EU parliament into compromise on state aid. Probably Merkel for both.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-von-der-leyen-extend-brexit-talks-by-a-month
I still think a deal is slightly more likely than no deal.
I still think a deal is slightly more likely than no deal.
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Will Boris cave in or not?
Probabky.. but he will spin it that he's secured a better deal than the eu wanted by being tough and standing up for the uk... between those that simply hate the eu, those that like Johnson and those that will simply be relieved we have avoided the hardest of brexits there is probably a big enough audience for him to spin a victory tale to
Some fudge that allows both sides to spin it as a win has seemed the likley outcome for months I think and is still id say the probable result
Perhaps some initial trading terms and the arguments can drag on for a few more years over a comprehensive deal
But the questions are ,amongst many others, will Boris break the WA or not, will he agree to the level playing field or not, will the goods exported by the UK to the EU comply with EU laws etc.
There cannot be a half answer or a maybe, the UK can't break the laws and regulations a little bit in certain areas and I would expect they want Boris's guarantee written in blood.
Once these basics have been agreed then a more comprehensive deal would be fleshed out over the coming years. Still going with no deal at the moment.
Gut feel yes... but they will devise something outside of the European courts of justice to administer any disputes (joint panel or something similar)
That's already in the WA and how things are generally done, international courts take too much time, there has never been any intention to not continue with a joint committee and arbitration panel. It's not aimed at you but people obsession with the ECJ will never ceases to amaze me, you even have journalists bringing it up when they really shouldn't.
Currently ecj remains the ultimate appeal court... could see a simple change on that being enough for boris to zip wire in waving flags and chuntering about sovereignty with a few shouts of freedom
And from the eu point of view nothing practical changes (and the make up of a ultimate judging panel would probabky be so similar to the ecj its a nothing change really)
But enough for both sides to spin it as a win
I see what you mean you are talking about the court of last resort and not the arbitration process. The distinction is important because the later aren't courts and never will, they are the current norm but they will never be the actual legal last resort that is the ICJ but it's worth remembering that in all circumstances sovereignty isn't in question because countries can always ignore or refuse to participate. The consequence being that it's a stain on your credibility.
Agree. There is likely to be a huge amount smoke and mirrors as both sides try to either claim the morale high ground, or blame the other for failure. It is all about posturing.
The EU won't agree a deal unless they have complete assurance.
They will negotiate to the last minute if they have to, I agree that they don't want to be seen as the bad guy and thus will continue as long as the UK are willing to negotiate and won't break off talks but at the end of the day the only way the UK gets a deal is to agree. They are definitely not going to accept anything that menaces the integrity of the single market and they've said this since day one.
If a deal is agreed and subsequently the UK break it, they will suspend the deal . Courts will be the last resort.
We will see. But I still think that it may not be the binary outcome of agree/no deal.
There seem to be two primary sticking points.
Fishing and level playing field.
That being the case and assuming both sides really don't want a no deal ending, is it not possible that these could be dealt with after the year end.
The main sticking point is the total implementation of the WA. They will continue to negotiate in the hope that this will be resolved. Without that there is no hope of a deal.
The other matters may be resolved in time.
Fishing issue is over-magnified by both sides. The UK don't eat what's in their waters and have to sell it to EU countries and EU countries want what's in the UK's waters - sure this can be resolved at some point.
The EU won't allow unfair competition for a country right on their doorstep.
The country is being misled by Johnson saying he wants a Canada type deal which is no more than a FTA with a far off country and if not an Australian deal which means no deal.
But as I've said all along, the most important thing was being in the Customs Union more than a FTA, that's gone, so a FTA will only be a damage limitation.
At the start there was BRINO (still in the Customs Union), pointless but only very bad, Brexit with a FTA - extremely bad, Brexit without a FTA - catastrophic.
Still get the impression that Johnson may think that with a choice between catastrophic and extremely bad he may as well go the whole hog and break the WA with the flag waving Brexiters cheering him on.
Is this the Brexit form of ‘winning?’
Christ, how shit a politician, and how lacking in awareness would you have to be, to advertise to the world that you have been made Trade Envoy to Mongolia?
Unless there's a sudden demand for yaks or mountains, wtf?
Unless there's a sudden demand for yaks or mountains, wtf?
I mean we are mongolias second biggest export market (after China) and they have a lot of natural resources such as rare earth materials and crude oil as well as being exporters of cashmere and wool
dont get me wrong Kawcynski is an idiot and there is certainly more little dog whistle racism buried in his tweets than meaningful insights
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...all-plan-twitter-apology-brexit-a8781361.html
that said the same could be said about your yaks and mountains comment
Seriously?I mean we are mongolias second biggest export market (after China) and they have a lot of natural resources such as rare earth materials and crude oil as well as being exporters of cashmere and wool
dont get me wrong Kawcynski is an idiot and there is certainly more little dog whistle racism buried in his tweets than meaningful insights
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...all-plan-twitter-apology-brexit-a8781361.html
that said the same could be said about your yaks and mountains comment
He's Trump level delusional. Not sure if he still is, but he used to be on Sky a lot, and that tweet fits right in.
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It always amazes me just how common the myth is that Britain didn't receive any money from the Marshall Plan. When in actual fact Britain received more from the Marshall Plan than any other European country.I mean we are mongolias second biggest export market (after China) and they have a lot of natural resources such as rare earth materials and crude oil as well as being exporters of cashmere and wool
dont get me wrong Kawcynski is an idiot and there is certainly more little dog whistle racism buried in his tweets than meaningful insights
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...all-plan-twitter-apology-brexit-a8781361.html
that said the same could be said about your yaks and mountains comment
Aah, but he's supposed to be there to sell not to buy. Trying to find a country the UK sells less to, there aren't many. Good news for the UK though, get him as far away from the UK as possible. Downside, his salary will be more than the exports.
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