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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Kinsella

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If Brexiters were so worried about immigration why did they vote to increase it? Not only to increase it but to give more access to the people standing behind Farage in that photo who don't look very European.

Obviously they had no idea what they were voting for, but ......
Bit of a non sequitur there Paul.
 

4bars

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Immigration was the decisive factor, which is why it should’ve been controlled much more than it was.

Governments can’t simply ignore rising public feeling about important issues. If they do then a backlash is inevitable.
It wqs the decisive factor because it is weaponized above other bigger problems like political corruption, tax evasion, inequality, and fecking other countries causing mass immigration. Without all these it will be less immigration and more resources for locals to not feel threatened by immigration AND more resources to absorve immigration.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Bit of a non sequitur there Paul.
But that was inevitable as was pointed out at the time. The Uk have moved from a system of workers who lived with their families from the EU to people just coming to work and then returning again. The UK like most western countries need immigration. Now the Europeans who had invested in setting up home are drifting back to their original countries or elsewhere in the EU are replaced by short-term workers who have no interest in investing in the UK. If it wasn't for the Europeans leaving since Brexit the net immigration to the UK would have been even higher.

I'm an immigrant in France. Stan's an immigrant in NL. His missus as he calls her, I believe is also an immigrant and my wife was an immigrant in the UK when she moved from France.

Furthermore the scare picture featured behind Farage has nothing to do with voting for or against freedom of movement in the Brexit vote.
 

cafecillos

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Immigration was the decisive factor, which is why it should’ve been controlled much more than it was.

Governments can’t simply ignore rising public feeling about important issues. If they do then a backlash is inevitable.
Immigration is systematically, tactically and strategically made into a much bigger issue than it really is by right wing parties and right wing media though. Not on only in the UK, but very vociferously and recklessly in the UK
 

Tarrou

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I had countless debates with my old man where I told him immigration would increase after brexit, and that brexit wasn't really about immigration anyway, but he was having non of it

just give people a slogan and repeat it enough times and that's it, you won't change it with facts or data or even the eventual reality of it all going wrong

now he's saying similar stupid shit about the boats with illegals, i gave up engaging with the cnut on politics years ago
 

Kinsella

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It wqs the decisive factor because it is weaponized above other bigger problems like political corruption, tax evasion, inequality, and fecking other countries causing mass immigration. Without all these it will be less immigration and more resources for locals to not feel threatened by immigration AND more resources to absorve immigration.
Any issue will be used or weaponised by people who have a particular focus/obsession with that issue, and that’s always been the case. But I fundamentally disagree with this notion that if not for this ‘weaponisation’ people wouldn’t have the opinions or feelings they do about it. The feeling exists around immigration because of the level of immigration, which (over the last 20 years or so) has been unprecedented in modern British history.

I completely agree with you on the fecking other countries point however, which is why my sympathy is severely limited. Britain should shoulder the main European responsibility for the current migration crisis given its complicity in Iraq, Libya etc. I wish there was an international agreement detailing the binding humanitarian responsibilities countries should face when engaging in conflict. I bet Governments would be a lot less willing to engage in such conflicts as a result.
 

Tarrou

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Any issue will be used or weaponised by people who have a particular focus/obsession with that issue, and that’s always been the case. But I fundamentally disagree with this notion that if not for this ‘weaponisation’ people wouldn’t have the opinions or feelings they do about it. The feeling exists around immigration because of the level of immigration, which (over the last 20 years or so) has been unprecedented in modern British history.

I completely agree with you on the fecking other countries point however, which is why my sympathy is severely limited. Britain should shoulder the main European responsibility for the current migration crisis given its complicity in Iraq, Libya etc. I wish there was an international agreement detailing the binding humanitarian responsibilities countries should face when engaging in conflict. I bet Governments would be a lot less willing to engage in such conflicts as a result.
surely people's opinions would change if they were aware of the reality of immigration as opposed to the lies they've been fed for decades

for example, immigration is a net gain for the economy (as opposed to the general view that it costs the country money)
 

Paul the Wolf

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I had countless debates with my old man where I told him immigration would increase after brexit, and that brexit wasn't really about immigration anyway, but he was having non of it

just give people a slogan and repeat it enough times and that's it, you won't change it with facts or data or even the eventual reality of it all going wrong

now he's saying similar stupid shit about the boats with illegals, i gave up engaging with the cnut on politics years ago
Now the right wing press are focussed on the boats and the government and so are the opposition. The number of people in boats are tiny compared to the legal immigration which is now supposedly under the total control of the government post-Brexit of 1.2 million.

Still being gaslit eight years later
 

Stanley Road

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I'm an immigrant in France. Stan's an immigrant in NL. His missus as he calls her, I believe is also an immigrant and my wife was an immigrant in the UK when she moved from France.
my Mrs is dutch 100%, from Alkmaar. She's typical Dutch, a casual racist.

I didn't come here for economic gains, some of my friends from Eastern Europe did and they now have the little red book, hundreds of thousands in the bank, and now their 30% ruling has expired they've gone to places like dubai to pay no tax. That's reality Paul, that's what happens on planet earth. They now hate western Europe and have nothing good to say about it.
 

Paul the Wolf

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my Mrs is dutch 100%, from Alkmaar. She's typical Dutch, a casual racist.

I didn't come here for economic gains, some of my friends from Eastern Europe did and they now have the little red book, hundreds of thousands in the bank, and now their 30% ruling has expired they've gone to places like dubai to pay no tax. That's reality Paul, that's what happens on planet earth. They now hate western Europe and have nothing good to say about it.
For some reason I had the impression that your Mrs was from somewhere else.

I didn't think you went to NL for economic reasons, and neither did I change countries for that either .

The immigrants who are coming to the UK to work now are solely going for economic reasons, absolutely nothing else - especially that they can't bring their families with them.
 

Matt Varnish

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I had countless debates with my old man where I told him immigration would increase after brexit, and that brexit wasn't really about immigration anyway, but he was having non of it

just give people a slogan and repeat it enough times and that's it, you won't change it with facts or data or even the eventual reality of it all going wrong

now he's saying similar stupid shit about the boats with illegals, i gave up engaging with the cnut on politics years ago
Controlled immigration isn't the issue, I don't believe anyone in the UK has a problem with anyone who wants to come here to escape persecution of any kind in any country.
The issue a I see it, is the uncontrolled illegal immigration coming from France via small boats across the channel, however big or small it is, it is putting a burden on all of those of us who pay taxes, and live in towns where these people are being accommodated.
The UK is the most attractive place in Europe for these people, nowhere else do they get similar benefits and tolerance.

I don't believe Rwanda is the solution, there has to be a simpler and cheaper one, similar to the one Australia adopted.
 

Kinsella

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But that was inevitable as was pointed out at the time. The Uk have moved from a system of workers who lived with their families from the EU to people just coming to work and then returning again. The UK like most western countries need immigration. Now the Europeans who had invested in setting up home are drifting back to their original countries or elsewhere in the EU are replaced by short-term workers who have no interest in investing in the UK. If it wasn't for the Europeans leaving since Brexit the net immigration to the UK would have been even higher.

I'm an immigrant in France. Stan's an immigrant in NL. His missus as he calls her, I believe is also an immigrant and my wife was an immigrant in the UK when she moved from France.

Furthermore the scare picture featured behind Farage has nothing to do with voting for or against freedom of movement in the Brexit vote.
Whether it was inevitable or not, that is what has happened as you said. I doubt many people actually considered through it logically and thoughtfully at the time though, and there’ll probably be another backlash at some point.

I don’t mean to be the merchant of doom or anything…but I’ve long had the feeling (mainly through observation and anecdotal evidence) that something bad has been brewing in Britain for a long time. I can also see something’s developing over here in Ireland now too.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Controlled immigration isn't the issue, I don't believe anyone in the UK has a problem with anyone who wants to come here to escape persecution of any kind in any country.
The issue a I see it, is the uncontrolled illegal immigration coming from France via small boats across the channel, however big or small it is, it is putting a burden on all of those of us who pay taxes, and live in towns where these people are being accommodated.
The UK is the most attractive place in Europe for these people, nowhere else do they get similar benefits and tolerance.

I don't believe Rwanda is the solution, there has to be a simpler and cheaper one, similar to the one Australia adopted.
This is right wing propaganda. There are far more refugees in other western European countries. You really believe all this crap?
 

Tarrou

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Controlled immigration isn't the issue, I don't believe anyone in the UK has a problem with anyone who wants to come here to escape persecution of any kind in any country.
The issue a I see it, is the uncontrolled illegal immigration coming from France via small boats across the channel, however big or small it is, it is putting a burden on all of those of us who pay taxes, and live in towns where these people are being accommodated.
The UK is the most attractive place in Europe for these people, nowhere else do they get similar benefits and tolerance.

I don't believe Rwanda is the solution, there has to be a simpler and cheaper one, similar to the one Australia adopted.
dad?
 

Paul the Wolf

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Whether it was inevitable or not, that is what has happened as you said. I doubt many people actually considered through it logically and thoughtfully at the time though, and there’ll probably be another backlash at some point.

I don’t mean to be the merchant of doom or anything…but I’ve long had the feeling (mainly through observation and anecdotal evidence) that something bad has been brewing in Britain for a long time. I can also see something’s developing over here in Ireland now too.
I lived the first half century of my life in the UK. It was a continual theme throughout. When I was young it was the Commonwealth citizens and the Irish then it moved to the Europeans then it will move to the current influx wherever they come from- nothing changes.
 

Kinsella

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Controlled immigration isn't the issue, I don't believe anyone in the UK has a problem with anyone who wants to come here to escape persecution of any kind in any country.
The issue a I see it, is the uncontrolled illegal immigration coming from France via small boats across the channel, however big or small it is, it is putting a burden on all of those of us who pay taxes, and live in towns where these people are being accommodated.
The UK is the most attractive place in Europe for these people, nowhere else do they get similar benefits and tolerance.

I don't believe Rwanda is the solution, there has to be a simpler and cheaper one, similar to the one Australia adopted.
I don’t buy that, or at least I don’t fully buy it.

I think the small boats are more like a symbolic proxy or representation of the immigration issue as a whole for a lot of people.
 
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Kinsella

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I lived the first half century of my life in the UK. It was a continual theme throughout. When I was young it was the Commonwealth citizens and the Irish then it moved to the Europeans then it will move to the current influx wherever they come from- nothing changes.
That’s true. The difference now though is that the level/scale has been markedly higher. It has also coincided or corresponded with other societal changes…but I’m not going into that here.
 

Maagge

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surely people's opinions would change if they were aware of the reality of immigration as opposed to the lies they've been fed for decades

for example, immigration is a net gain for the economy (as opposed to the general view that it costs the country money)
Not only that. The British economy is dependent on migration which is why the politics are so schizophrenic: Demonise migrants because that's a vote winner (apparently) while doing feck all about migration because you know cutting it will tank your economy even more than Brexit has already done.
 

Matt Varnish

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I don’t buy that, or at least I don’t fully buy it.

I think the small boats are more like a symbolic proxy or representation of the immigration issue as a whole for a lot of people.
You may be right, I personally don't have a problem with anyone who comes here to work and become a member of the community.
My son married a Polish girl, she not only holds down a high level full time job, she also volunteers for a couple of charities and does other work in the community, she's taken up British residency, that in itself cost her over £1k, and the questions they ask, most people would be unable to answer.
 

Matt Varnish

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Now the right wing press are focussed on the boats and the government and so are the opposition. The number of people in boats are tiny compared to the legal immigration which is now supposedly under the total control of the government post-Brexit of 1.2 million.

Still being gaslit eight years later
Government figures year to date June 2023 for legal immigration was 627,000, half what you say
Illegal detected immigration via "small boats" was 53000
As for it not being a blight on the economy, it depends on how you look at it, the Government says it costs £5.6m a day to keep "asylum seekers" in hotels and other accommodation.
It costs roughly 1.5times more to keep an asylum seeker than it does to pay a nurse.
The governments own figures say the situation will get worse, and will most likely hit 60000 this year, and could cost the country £13bn per year.

Most legal immigrants end up contributing to the economy in some way.
Illegal immigrant who disappear into the back streets contribute into the economy in no way at all, they tend to fall into crime or the black market economy, sending money back home to fund more crossings.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Government figures year to date June 2023 for legal immigration was 627,000, half what you say
Illegal detected immigration via "small boats" was 53000
As for it not being a blight on the economy, it depends on how you look at it, the Government says it costs £5.6m a day to keep "asylum seekers" in hotels and other accommodation.
It costs roughly 1.5times more to keep an asylum seeker than it does to pay a nurse.
The governments own figures say the situation will get worse, and will most likely hit 60000 this year, and could cost the country £13bn per year.

Most legal immigrants end up contributing to the economy in some way.
Illegal immigrant who disappear into the back streets contribute into the economy in no way at all, they tend to fall into crime or the black market economy, sending money back home to fund more crossings.
Net immigration if you take off those who have returned is lower of course - but 200k have returned to Europe alone.
Small boats people are not illegal immigrants if they claim refugee/asylum status upon arrival. The trafficking of these people is illegal. Illegal immigration are those who stay without permission eg visa overstayers and are not refugees or haven't claimed asylum. For example there are lot of British people in France, Spain etc who have overstayed their allotted time and are therefore illegal immigrants.

If the asylum seekers/refugees' applications were processed, processing is the problem caused by the inefficiency of the government, 70% approx would become workers or tax paying citizens and contribute to the economy. If they do not have legitimate claims they can be returned to their country, assuming it is safe.

Do you not think that countries like Germany, France, Italy, Spain etc have far more applicants than the UK. There's a centre in our local town of 3000 people , zero problems. People are well treated in modern accommodation.

It's used by the government like in Brexit to cover their own failures. Focus people minds on a small number of people to deflect attention.
The far right in France, Germany other western European countries use immigrants as weapons too.
 

Vitro

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Government figures year to date June 2023 for legal immigration was 627,000, half what you say
Illegal detected immigration via "small boats" was 53000
As for it not being a blight on the economy, it depends on how you look at it, the Government says it costs £5.6m a day to keep "asylum seekers" in hotels and other accommodation.
It costs roughly 1.5times more to keep an asylum seeker than it does to pay a nurse.
The governments own figures say the situation will get worse, and will most likely hit 60000 this year, and could cost the country £13bn per year.

Most legal immigrants end up contributing to the economy in some way.
Illegal immigrant who disappear into the back streets contribute into the economy in no way at all, they tend to fall into crime or the black market economy, sending money back home to fund more crossings.
So what like 0.5% of the UK’s GDP? I have to listen to so many people/politicians/media go on and on and on about something comparatively that small?

Apparently wastage in the public sector is costing the UK £10 billlion per year. I wonder why that isn’t talked about in the media any where near as much as migration and boats.
 

golden_blunder

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Any issue will be used or weaponised by people who have a particular focus/obsession with that issue, and that’s always been the case. But I fundamentally disagree with this notion that if not for this ‘weaponisation’ people wouldn’t have the opinions or feelings they do about it. The feeling exists around immigration because of the level of immigration, which (over the last 20 years or so) has been unprecedented in modern British history.

I completely agree with you on the fecking other countries point however, which is why my sympathy is severely limited. Britain should shoulder the main European responsibility for the current migration crisis given its complicity in Iraq, Libya etc. I wish there was an international agreement detailing the binding humanitarian responsibilities countries should face when engaging in conflict. I bet Governments would be a lot less willing to engage in such conflicts as a result.
The feeling was there - the country was going downhill faster than Eddie the eagle and it was easy to blame immigrants rather than looking at who was governing/presiding over it all. They knew that this was a potential winner for the Brexit vote so they played on it. But if you want to find the real reason for Brexit, follow the money
 

4bars

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Controlled immigration isn't the issue, I don't believe anyone in the UK has a problem with anyone who wants to come here to escape persecution of any kind in any country.
The issue a I see it, is the uncontrolled illegal immigration coming from France via small boats across the channel, however big or small it is, it is putting a burden on all of those of us who pay taxes, and live in towns where these people are being accommodated.
The UK is the most attractive place in Europe for these people, nowhere else do they get similar benefits and tolerance.

I don't believe Rwanda is the solution, there has to be a simpler and cheaper one, similar to the one Australia adopted.
I had a grin on my face waiting for the punchline...Now I am sad
 

4bars

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Any issue will be used or weaponised by people who have a particular focus/obsession with that issue, and that’s always been the case. But I fundamentally disagree with this notion that if not for this ‘weaponisation’ people wouldn’t have the opinions or feelings they do about it. The feeling exists around immigration because of the level of immigration, which (over the last 20 years or so) has been unprecedented in modern British history.

I completely agree with you on the fecking other countries point however, which is why my sympathy is severely limited. Britain should shoulder the main European responsibility for the current migration crisis given its complicity in Iraq, Libya etc. I wish there was an international agreement detailing the binding humanitarian responsibilities countries should face when engaging in conflict. I bet Governments would be a lot less willing to engage in such conflicts as a result.
It had been definitely weaponised. The Schrodinger immigrant that steal your job but have unemployment benefits.

Guess who is not voting. Immigrants. They can dehumanize them, you can accuse them to steal a job (that you will never do in your life). You can accuse them to steal when politicians steal many thousands more because they can't have their votes. And why they tell us, look at these feckers, they are coming for your things, is to deviate from the real thieves. Them.

Your mortgage goes up more than double? Hey! look! immigrants! We did feck all with affordable housing? Hey look! immigrants! The house market crashes in 2008 due to uncontrolled greed and we save the banks with public money to never return? Hey look! immigrants! We have a 10% inflation, half of if pure greed of companies taking the opportunity to overinflate prices? Hey look! immigrants! We are selling arms to Saudi Arabia, participating in Iraq and Afghanistan with lies reaping the benefits and enjoying the taxes with it? Hey look! immigrants! During COVID inequality went even more rampant the poor being poorer and the rich getting filth richier? Hey look! immigrants! COVID enquire? Hey look! immigrants!

And I could keep going. Immigration had been used ALWAYS to blame for a bad situation in a country. It happened with the Jews in europe when the black plague (among other moments) when they were doing better than the regular population. It happened in nazi germany to galvanize the movement and is happening now

Sure immigration poses challenges but is magnified and weaponized for electoralism. Lots of these challenges caused by the governments themselves by the way. And yes, these challenges needs to be heard, address and try to be solved not only for the sake of the locals, but for the immigrants also. But immigration is needed if you want to keep the society that we have and also, lets have a fecking heart, they are human beings as me and you and most of them just want to have a normal like us. And we are just to the "right" country by chance. Not because we are better. And is not that we even mind immigration, we mind POOR PEOPLE. Also, as this is the Brexit, Inside the EU, the UK was always capable to deal with its own immigration, even European one.

I hate hearing @Stanley Road and others with a flair of "we are the good immigration" with a nonchalant tone "I am not an economic immigrant my dear". The sheer entitlement of the ones that are lucky to do whatever the feck they want.

What comes around comes around. And might not be for, we privileged, but for our sons and grandsons
 
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Wibble

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I don't believe Rwanda is the solution, there has to be a simpler and cheaper one, similar to the one Australia adopted.
Huh? Rwanda is almost exactly what we did. Hugely expensive and incredibly cruel, with suicide, mental illness and sexual assault (by other detainees and staff) incredibly widespread. Over $500,000 per person per year for offshore processing, $350,000 per person per year for indefinite offshore detention. Holding the same people in the community on holding visas costs $10,000 per year. The very few that are a potential risk to the community can be held in onshore immigration detention. Currently we spend over $1 billion (yes billion) dollars a year in a cruel and unconscionable PR exercise.

The vast majority of visa overstayers, refugees or otherwise, simply fly here. Offshore detention is just a PR exercise to show how tough we are on illegal migration (actually mainly not at all illegal refugee claims) or some such bullshit.

Offshore detention is a national disgrace that needs to stop.
 
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Red in STL

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Huh? Rwanda is almost exactly what we did. Hugely expensive and incredibly cruel, with suicide, mental illness and sexual assault (by other detainees and staff) incredibly widespread. Over $500,000 per person per year for offshore processing, $350,000 per person per year for indefinite offshore detention. Holding the same people in the community on holding visas costs $10,000 per year. The very few that are a potential risk to the community can be held in onshore immigration detention. Currently we spend over $1 billion (yes billion) dollars a year in a cruel and unconscionable PR exercise.

The vast majority of visa overstayers, refugees or otherwise, simply fly here. Offshore detention is just a PR exercise to show how tough we are on illegal migration (actually mainly not at all illegal refugee claims) or some such bullshit.

Offshore detention is a national disgrace that needs to stop.
This is true in a lot of countries I think, in the UK antipodeans are the single largest group of people "illegally" in the country, in the USA it's Canadians
 

RedRoach

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Controlled immigration isn't the issue, I don't believe anyone in the UK has a problem with anyone who wants to come here to escape persecution of any kind in any country.
The issue a I see it, is the uncontrolled illegal immigration coming from France via small boats across the channel, however big or small it is, it is putting a burden on all of those of us who pay taxes, and live in towns where these people are being accommodated.
The UK is the most attractive place in Europe for these people, nowhere else do they get similar benefits and tolerance.

I don't believe Rwanda is the solution, there has to be a simpler and cheaper one, similar to the one Australia adopted.
This is not true. In Spain they get housed for free, they get free mobile phone contract, their kids go to school free, they get an allowance and they get placed on integration and work placement programs. All that and they get better weather. This is not a UK “Problem” nor is the UK burdened any more than any other European country who all have similar challenges.
 

Stanley Road

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So what like 0.5% of the UK’s GDP? I have to listen to so many people/politicians/media go on and on and on about something comparatively that small?

Apparently wastage in the public sector is costing the UK £10 billlion per year. I wonder why that isn’t talked about in the media any where near as much as migration and boats.
Because it doesn't win votes. The same way obesity costs the NHS twice as much as smoking but also gets less attention
 

Berbasbullet

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Government figures year to date June 2023 for legal immigration was 627,000, half what you say
Illegal detected immigration via "small boats" was 53000
As for it not being a blight on the economy, it depends on how you look at it, the Government says it costs £5.6m a day to keep "asylum seekers" in hotels and other accommodation.
It costs roughly 1.5times more to keep an asylum seeker than it does to pay a nurse.
The governments own figures say the situation will get worse, and will most likely hit 60000 this year, and could cost the country £13bn per year.

Most legal immigrants end up contributing to the economy in some way.
Illegal immigrant who disappear into the back streets contribute into the economy in no way at all, they tend to fall into crime or the black market economy, sending money back home to fund more crossings.
You’re describing the stuff our government is doing as a political decision and what they’re failing at.

Ultimately it’s not the reason this country has gone to pot and gets a disproportionate amount of attention in the press to influence good people like you.

Don’t let it make you angry, that’s what they want. The government are the enemy, not the poor people risking their lives to get to a safe country that they know they’ll be happy in (some come here, most go elsewhere, we should do our bit).

Do some reading into the subject, there will be a lot of well written articles explaining what’s really happening (Paul’s post above is a fab start).
 

Matt Varnish

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Net immigration if you take off those who have returned is lower of course - but 200k have returned to Europe alone.
Small boats people are not illegal immigrants if they claim refugee/asylum status upon arrival. The trafficking of these people is illegal. Illegal immigration are those who stay without permission eg visa overstayers and are not refugees or haven't claimed asylum. For example there are lot of British people in France, Spain etc who have overstayed their allotted time and are therefore illegal immigrants.

If the asylum seekers/refugees' applications were processed, processing is the problem caused by the inefficiency of the government, 70% approx would become workers or tax paying citizens and contribute to the economy. If they do not have legitimate claims they can be returned to their country, assuming it is safe.

Do you not think that countries like Germany, France, Italy, Spain etc have far more applicants than the UK. There's a centre in our local town of 3000 people , zero problems. People are well treated in modern accommodation.

It's used by the government like in Brexit to cover their own failures. Focus people minds on a small number of people to deflect attention.
The far right in France, Germany other western European countries use immigrants as weapons too.
Any true asylum seeker has a safe route into this country via the airports and ports, where they can contact border control, they do not have to pay a human trafficker £000's to cross one of the busiest and most dangerous waterways in the world in order to get here, they are told to dispose of all their papers as they cross, to hide their identity and country of origin.
Afghan refugee's are given a safe route, they follow that route.
Almost all Channel migrants arrive without passports after being told to shred ID (telegraph.co.uk)
Most of those arriving are also young men, the ratio of older men, women and children to younger men is very low.
For every story, every report, there is a counter story, I will believe what my friends who work for the RNLI and rescue these people tell me what is happening.