But SJ is not filing for full share. He has said he will make an offer on the NYSE later, which is right and proper. The bid can only be for their shares, they have nothing else to sell. You are making the mistake that an offer for the 69% Glazer shares automatically inflates the market cap of the other 31% by the same proportion. It doesn’t. At today’s prices those 31% shares would probably sell for an offer north of $25. We have no idea if the bids reported are true - but - if SJ has offered £4.8bn for the Glazers stake that’s $6bn and close to what they were looking for.
We agree on we have no idea of the actual bids because there is Non Disclosure Agreement between all parties , It’s widely reported across all the media and this thread as well that the valuation was asked for 100% value of the club where the 69% would then calculated back from that or in SJR case scenario two 50.01% where there is a link earlier from a post on this thread saying that was for $3bn not £3bn. This indicates that currently $4.2-$4.4bn is the bid to buy 69% of the controlling shares, if you can’t find it in the thread I’ll post it again but it’s behind a telegraph pay wall.
The bids are only for their B shares but The Glazers own about another 1.5% in A shares so a full bid would affect those shares when SJ instructed the NYSE that he intends to buy the remainder of the 31% and delist the company, the advantage for the Glazers right now are that they are in complete control of the process, because the company is registered in the Cayman Islands, a payment of 69% of the £4.8bm bid with the additional A shares could be £3.384bn or $4.27bn now and more importantly no capital gains tax as the company is registered in a tax free haven, imagine SJR does the layered buy out deal with them and he changes the registered offices to the UK or another Country and then capital gains tax is now required, these are the risks that Avram and Joel would be taking with SJR offer, just one of many?
The A shares are not as highly valued but Qatar are offering a similar premium which is why the Stock market was more excited by the pendulum swinging towards him rather than SJR, this where we had $27 high earlier in year when he was rumoured to be the nailed on favourite.
SJR could offer a premium for voting B shares and leave the A shares in limbo, the market could collapse and shares fall to $13-14 then Ineos could buy the other 31% for less than $600m, this is why SJ bid is favoured far more than SJR by the city it less risk and more reward.
I repeat if SJ or SJR have offered £5bn for The Glazer controlling shares the deal would be signed already.
