The election is decided in two rounds. The two candidates who receive the most votes in the first round on April 10 will then meet in a decisive duel on April 24.
For a long time, it seemed like the only question was which candidate will lose the run-off to Macron, but this might become a thriller. The incumbent is still the favorite but his lead has been shrinking.
The first-round polls. Macron outperforms his 2017 score, and Pecresse clearly underperforms the conservative vote of 2017, I'm not sure what that's about. Mélenchon got a very high score in 2017, I think the communists (PCF) having their own candidate is bad for him.
The run-off polls. Here's the big change, I don't think MLP has ever polled this high.
For a long time, it seemed like the only question was which candidate will lose the run-off to Macron, but this might become a thriller. The incumbent is still the favorite but his lead has been shrinking.
The first-round polls. Macron outperforms his 2017 score, and Pecresse clearly underperforms the conservative vote of 2017, I'm not sure what that's about. Mélenchon got a very high score in 2017, I think the communists (PCF) having their own candidate is bad for him.
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The run-off polls. Here's the big change, I don't think MLP has ever polled this high.
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— Twitter API (@user) date