Progress or consistency is very difficult to achieve when you're hamstrung by Covid and are unable to improve upon a limited squad with games coming thick and fast due to the scheduling. So the drop off in form was predicted by some in this very thread.
I'm going to give Rose a hard time, because why not, but the above is of course true.
Out of the top 5 (Bayern. Leipzig, BVB, Leverkusen, Gladbach), Gladbach are by far the poorest club and financially operating a level below even the top 4 competitors bar Bayern. So especially to them, a negative and damaging impact due to CoVid is really to be expected.
Also, already in previous seasons Gladbach hadn't followed stride with CL qualification by making the investment into the squad that would be demanded in order to remain evenly, relatively competitive in all competitions; and now in Covid times especially they weren't going to invest in a better, deeper squad.
It's apparent that Eberl considers CL participation an overperformance in relation to the club's financial position and dimension, and isn't willing to overcommit as a quick reaction to it, in terms of spending. One could surely have wondered whether they couldn't be more strategically bold to build on the success, but not with the pandemic.
I think in general it's easy to spot the common pattern among German coaches:
Beaten Bayern, Dortmund, Leipzig and gotten good results in the CL.
On the other hand five losses in the league: 2 against Dortmund and Leverkusen, 3 against Hoffenheim, Cologne and Mainz
Which is basically also Dortmund's classic pattern. Now, since Gladbach does not have the strongest or deepest squad the question is why: to what degree is it an issue of quality, energy, motivation or coaching. In the end it won't be just a singular problem and how well he deals with being forced into a dominant position is the thing I'll be watching most closely when he takes over Dortmund, but stats like these suggest there might be a significant issue with the squad:
Interesting. I assume 'Differenzen' means, compared to last season? Or is it, the difference to the opponent?
(edit: I misunderstood it at first, it's the difference to the opponent teams, so it doesn't necessarily say we run less this season than last, and also is connected to us having so much possession. The following is a based on a wrong assumption then)
Now what I wonder is (focusing on the Bayern stat difference as that's the team I watch every week), is this really the result of a change in the approach, is it an active strategy? The tweet seems to interpret it as such.
I'm not so sure to what degree this reality, i.e. that Bayern players run significantly less, is controlled, and to what degree it's just happening without Flick wanting it or proposing it.
Do you really think the coaching team implements a strategy to run less and sprint more? Or do we have to end up sprinting more, as we run so much less on the whole (the biggest negative difference) and have less grip on the games due to that? It's probably somewhere in between.
Another edit: I found the stats for 19/20,
https://bstat.de/doku.php/1920/laufleistung
So Bayern run 'lesser' AND sprint 'less more' in 20/21 compared to 19/20.
The km-difference to the opponent sank from an average -1,8 per game to -3,8, and while we did 30 more sprints than the opponent per game in 19/20 it sank to 11 in the above graph.
So in fact the sprinting has decreased even more than the running, which explain the complete loss of intensity.
It's Flick's Bundesliga career stats. Bayern is hit significantly worse by the schedule, missing pre season and CWC obligations, but they also have a far better and deeper squad than Gladbach and play far more dominant football. Imagine all those games where Neuer and Lewandowski delivered with an out of form Plea or Sommer instead.
Nagelsmann has impressed the most. Despite replacing Schick and Werner with Sörloth and not having a pre-season either, he's got his team on a 0.2 higher ppg compared to last season and doing well in both cup competitions. From his fairly deep, but individually not that strong squad he managed to form such a cohesive collective, that it almost doesn't seem to matter who actually plays.
That's true. I would, as I wrote above, also not atttribute our poor defensive performance this season, directly, mono-causally, to the schedule.
If it's fatige, it's also mental fatigue, it's also the 'having-won' situation, it's also stuff in the team (Alaba leaving etc), it's also the change in midfield with Thiago gone.
But no doubt, with our break-neck approach, the missing last percent in freshness, movement, and intensity, the missing kilometers of the above graph, can be fatal.
I also think that, regarding all teams everywhere, the whole bubble thing, hygienic measures, the whole testing and quarantining, not being able to party or have a social life, will impact the performances of athletes as it impacts the work and private life of everyone else, often very negatively.
I share the awe in front of Nagelsmann's work. As much as I fail to understand how the feck the squad planning team (and I assume Nagelsmann is involved) thinks the whole 'not having a single good striker' thing is supposed to go down for a top football team.
You have to wonder what they saw in Sörloth since clearly he doesn't offer anything, so far. And then they bought Szoboszlai apparently with a protracted, untreated injury.