Nicola Sturgeon and Scottish Independence

[Baxter]

The de facto referendum via a general is a pretty bleak prospect for them. They got 45% last election but that was based on a protest vote against Boris and Corbyn, two very unpopular leaders in Scotland.

Sunak and Starmer are also no more popular.

 

[hobbers]

Sunak and Starmer are also no more popular.

Neither are anything like as unpopular as the two who preceded them.

 

[goalscholes]

Sunak and Starmer are also no more popular.

Of course they are more popular, and crucially, far more electable.

Corbyn got fewer votes than someone doing a Brexit no one wanted and attacking her own base by asking the elderly to pay for their care by selling (or at least selling part of) their own homes. Sensible policy decisions, but basically the worst campaign platforms.

As I said at the time, it was like celebrating a narrow footballing loss against a side that only put out 6 men.

 

[lefty_jakobz]

The de facto referendum via a general is a pretty bleak prospect for them. They got 45% last election but that was based on a protest vote against Boris and Corbyn, two very unpopular leaders in Scotland.

Corbyn isnt unpopular in Scotland

 

[sun_tzu]

Corbyn isnt unpopular in Scotland

yeah but nah

UK Labour leader Keir Starmer is suffering in Scotland too. Just 19% of people approved of his performance in the role, compared to 38% of those who disapproved.


The three least popular politicians were Boris Johnson, on a -38 approval rating, former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn on -43, and Alba leader Alex Salmond on -57.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19591892.least-popular-politicians-scotland-revealed-new-poll/

 

[Smores]

If this happened in a non-white country you know there'd be uproar from the same politicians who refuse this request.

I'd argue it might be too soon for another referendum but we can't keep denying they have the right to independence.

 

[hobbers]

Corbyn isnt unpopular in Scotland

Yes he is. He effectively pushed a swathe of long term Scottish Labour voters to the SNP.

Initially he had a bit of a bounce in Scotland when Corbynism was a few months old but it didnt last long.

 

[goalscholes]

Corbyn isnt unpopular in Scotland

Didn't Labour give their worst performance for over 100 years at the last election?

 

[lefty_jakobz]

yeah but nah


https://www.thenational.scot/news/19591892.least-popular-politicians-scotland-revealed-new-poll/

Yes he is. He effectively pushed a swathe of long term Scottish Labour voters to the SNP.

Initially he had a bit of a bounce in Scotland when Corbynism was a few months old but it didnt last long.

Didn't Labour give their worst performance for over 100 years at the last election?

The Labour party are unpopular up here due to Blair and the illegal war. Most people I know would love nothing more than a Corbyn led party running the government. Only ones who dislike him are the Tory supporters and they aren't even relevant any more in Scotland a bit like Labour.

 

[sun_tzu]

The Labour party are unpopular up here due to Blair and the illegal war. Most people I know would love nothing more than a Corbyn led party running the government. Only ones who dislike him are the Tory supporters and they aren't even relevant any more in Scotland a bit like Labour.

yeah but nah
last election before blair Labour got 39%
Blairs first election they got 45.6%
The election after the Iraq invasion they got 43.92% (post Iraq)
Blairs last election 39.52% (post iraq)
Brown got 42% (post Iraq)

Corbyn got 18.6%

so yeah perhaps most people you know would love nothing more than Corbyn but that probably says more about your echo chamber than the reality

 

[lefty_jakobz]

yeah but nah
last election before blair Labour got 39%
Blairs first election they got 45.6%
The election after the Iraq invasion they got 43.92% (post Iraq)
Blairs last election 39.52% (post iraq)
Brown got 42% (post Iraq)

Corbyn got 18.6%

so yeah perhaps most people you know would love nothing more than Corbyn but that probably says more about your echo chamber than the reality

What area in Scotland do you stay?

 

[horsechoker]

God she is a vile little creature

Harsh on @Vidic_In_Moscow

 

[Sweet Square]

So the English response to the latest news is to talk about an MP from Islington.

 

[sun_tzu]

What area in Scotland do you stay?

Why does the % of total Scottish votes by party change depending where you look them up from... thats some crazy quantum stuff going on there


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland

Because this is what they say for me...

last election before blair Labour got 39%
Blairs first election they got 45.6%
The election after the Iraq invasion they got 43.92% (post Iraq)
Blairs last election 39.52% (post iraq)
Brown got 42% (post Iraq)

Corbyn got 18.6%

Are they incorrect?

 

[lefty_jakobz]

Why does the % of total Scottish votes by party change depending where you look them up from... thats some crazy quantum stuff going on there


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland

Because this is what they say for me...



Are they incorrect?

So youre not from Scotland?

 

[Fingeredmouse]

yeah but nah
last election before blair Labour got 39%
Blairs first election they got 45.6%
The election after the Iraq invasion they got 43.92% (post Iraq)
Blairs last election 39.52% (post iraq)
Brown got 42% (post Iraq)

Corbyn got 18.6%

so yeah perhaps most people you know would love nothing more than Corbyn but that probably says more about your echo chamber than the reality

The death of Labour in Scotland long predates Corbyn and is causally related to the Labour party's drift to the right and implementation and advocation of policies that are deeply unpopular in Scotland creating a political vacuum filled by the SNP. This was further exacerbated with Labour's alliance with the Tories on Indy ref, the general awfulness of Scottish Labour and the Brexit disaster.

Labour are on life support in Scotland and no leader is resurrecting them anytime soon.

 

[hobbers]

Labours slow death in Scotland predates Corbyn but its still true that lots of voters who would usually vote Labour swapped to SNP in 2019 as a protest against Corbyn, not because of a sudden longing for independence.

 

[Camilo]

Alternatively, I’m not sure rejecting the request from an elected government to hold something that was pledged in their manifesto is a great look.

You can't have "start a new country" votes every handful of years. It's fecking stupid. The country is, at best, completely divided on independence. It would be completely irresponsible to have a vote. Far worse than Brexit.

Just because the SNP are thick and promise things they can't deliver doesn't make denying them a vote wrong.

 

[altodevil]

You can't have "start a new country" votes every handful of years. It's fecking stupid. The country is, at best, completely divided on independence. It would be completely irresponsible to have a vote. Far worse than Brexit.

Just because the SNP are thick and promise things they can't deliver doesn't make denying them a vote wrong.

However you lean on independence (you seem on the fence to me) you should be troubled by this ruling.

 

[lefty_jakobz]

Ah well its off to war we go

 

[nimic]

Labours slow death in Scotland predates Corbyn but its still true that lots of voters who would usually vote Labour swapped to SNP in 2019 as a protest against Corbyn, not because of a sudden longing for independence.

Any source for that claim? Articles, interviews, statistics, something else?

 

[Fingeredmouse]

Labours slow death in Scotland predates Corbyn but its still true that lots of voters who would usually vote Labour swapped to SNP in 2019 as a protest against Corbyn, not because of a sudden longing for independence.

Most of the people who'd back Corbyn would have been pretty unlikely to be voting Labour by 2019 irrespective.

 

[Fingeredmouse]

You can't have "start a new country" votes every handful of years. It's fecking stupid. The country is, at best, completely divided on independence. It would be completely irresponsible to have a vote. Far worse than Brexit.

Just because the SNP are thick and promise things they can't deliver doesn't make denying them a vote wrong.

Irrespective of opinions on independence or referendums in general, the implications of this ruling are of concern. As far as I can read it, the principle appears to be that the power to hold a referendum lies with devolved governments but the capacity to practically enact any outcome does not, therefore the referendum cannot occur as that is the decision of the collective Union's government of which Scotland is a voluntary part. It's catch-22.

 

[P-Ro]

If this happened in a non-white country you know there'd be uproar from the same politicians who refuse this request.

I'd argue it might be too soon for another referendum but we can't keep denying they have the right to independence.

Where was the uproar in this country when the Catalans were denied the vote? If it happened in a non-white country those politicians wouldn't care, just as they also don't care about what happens in mostly white countries.

 

[Norman Brownbutter]

This isn’t a union, it’s a prison. A racist, Tory, neoliberal, hellscape that celebrates failure and incompetence as long as it looks like a Union Jack just skunked on it.

 

[Vidic_In_Moscow]

This isn’t a union, it’s a prison. A racist, Tory, neoliberal, hellscape that celebrates failure and incompetence as long as it looks like a Union Jack just skunked on it.

Long live the King!

 

[africanspur]

Can you guys name many countries where a state/province etc can simply declare repeat independence referenda without the consent of the central government?

 

[Norman Brownbutter]

Long live the King!

Not with those sausage fingers he wont.

 

[P-Ro]

Not with those sausage fingers he wont.

Sorry to spoil your day but he's had those weird hands for decades. He'll probably live to 90, which as we know is more than double the life expectancy of the average Scot.

 

[Norman Brownbutter]

Sorry to spoil your day but he's had those weird hands for decades. He'll probably live to 90, which as we know is more than double the life expectancy of the average Scot.

Well, I'll take dying at 45 with a pizza crunch hanging out my mouth and never having raped kids over dying at 90, raping kids, being surrounded by cnuts who rape kids, protecting cnuts who rape kids and having a fecking melt down at a pen. But you enjoy your salad, mate.

 

[711]

Long live the King!

Don't think so, Jeremy Corbyn's nailed on for president I've heard.

 

[Baxter]

You can't have "start a new country" votes every handful of years. It's fecking stupid. The country is, at best, completely divided on independence. It would be completely irresponsible to have a vote. Far worse than Brexit.

Just because the SNP are thick and promise things they can't deliver doesn't make denying them a vote wrong.

The country isn’t the same as it was in 2014. In any case, how many more elections do the SNP need to win before it’s not ‘stupid’ to ask the question again? If they go into the next GE on a mandate based solely around Independence, what do you think then? It’s clear you would not support Indy but when would you say it becomes clear that the will of the Scots is to have another referendum?

 

[decorativeed]

Can you guys name many countries where a state/province etc can simply declare repeat independence referenda without the consent of the central government?

How many countries are supposedly in a voluntary union they have no power to withdraw from?

So much has changed since 2014, when many people voted to remain in the Union in order to remain in the EU, that there will likely be a different result next time around. If not, then I think that would be a definitive end to the question anyway.

 

[hobbers]

how many more elections do the SNP need to win before it’s not ‘stupid’ to ask the question again? If they go into the next GE on a mandate based solely around Independence, what do you think then? It’s clear you would not support Indy but when would you say it becomes clear that the will of the Scots is to have another referendum?

I'd say over a decade as a minimum. If the SNP do somehow get 50%+ of the popular vote in 2025, running their election campaign as a defacto referendum, that would be the point the UK government should start negotiating another legally binding referendum. Which would end up being 12 years after the last indyref so a reasonable amount of time.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Yes he is. He effectively pushed a swathe of long term Scottish Labour voters to the SNP.

Initially he had a bit of a bounce in Scotland when Corbynism was a few months old but it didnt last long.

Ahh yes bloody Corbyn back in 2007 and 2011 as Labour leader gifting Scotland to the SNP.

It's obvious to anyone who knows Scottish politics the Blair years ruined Scotland for Labour.

 

[africanspur]

How many countries are supposedly in a voluntary union they have no power to withdraw from?

So much has changed since 2014, when many people voted to remain in the Union in order to remain in the EU, that there will likely be a different result next time around. If not, then I think that would be a definitive end to the question anyway.

Pretty much every country? There are almost no countries in the world where provinces or territories in a region have the unilateral right to withdraw from a union without the consent of the central authority. You can't do it in the USA, Canada, Spain, France, Australia, Brazil etc etc.

There's a difference between saying what you'd prefer to happen (I'd probably vote for independence if I was in Scotland, even though I think there would be quite an economic shock) and understanding the legal basis behind the central government ultimately being the authority that actually provides a legal route to an independence referendum.

 

[4bars]

Can you guys name many countries where a state/province etc can simply declare repeat independence referenda without the consent of the central government?

At least 10

https://www.nationalia.info/new/109...dence-to-some-of-their-territories-and-france

 

[decorativeed]

Pretty much every country? There are almost no countries in the world where provinces or territories in a region have the unilateral right to withdraw from a union without the consent of the central authority. You can't do it in the USA, Canada, Spain, France, Australia, Brazil etc etc.

There's a difference between saying what you'd prefer to happen (I'd probably vote for independence if I was in Scotland, even though I think there would be quite an economic shock) and understanding the legal basis behind the central government ultimately being the authority that actually provides a legal route to an independence referendum.

You think the states of the US and Australia are the same as the nations of the UK? Scotland isn't a state, territory, autonomous community or dependency, it is a country.

 

[africanspur]

At least 10

https://www.nationalia.info/new/109...dence-to-some-of-their-territories-and-france

Interestingly, I came across the same list just now. It is an incredibly poor one.

For starters, the UK is on the list, which was kind of my point. By even allowing the referendum in 2016 (and making its commitments to NI), it already goes quite a way beyond what many other countries are willing to do.

The Canadian supreme court ruled that Quebec could not unilaterally secede (ie run an independence referendum without the consent of the Central government) ie, similar to the ruling today. Whatever Ethiopia's constitution says, the central government's response to what admittedly seem like ill-thought out regional elections in defiance of the central government has been.....years of wars and war crimes. The Moldovan example is particularly specific to two regions and Moldova has gone to war to try to integrate the territory back into its territory. It still does not recognise any attempt to secede.

The PNG example is of the central government signing an agreement with a minority region to hold a referendum at a specified date, just as the UK government gave to the Scottish one.

The French example is again, a very specific example of the central authority allowing a specific territory (New Caledonia) to have referenda at a specified date, not to unilaterally call referenda whenever it chooses. And it came after a period of violence.

Even this shoddily put together list provides almost no examples of countries where someone other than the central authority provides the legal basis for an independence referendum.

 

[africanspur]

You think the states of the US and Australia are the same as the nations of the UK? Scotland isn't a state, territory, autonomous community or dependency, it is a country.

I mean, putting history aside, essentially yes?

What marks Scotland out compared to Florida for example? Does it have its own currency? Its own head of state? Its own constitution? Its own military? Does it sit at the UN?

What kinds of things can Sturgeon or the Scottish Parliament do that, for instance, De Sanctis and the Florida legislature can't do?