A draw doesn't change anything. We need 9 points to reach 72. We still need to win 3 games of our last 5. Had we drawn, we would've needed 8... Which is 2 wins and 2 draws and 1 loss technically rather than 3 wins and 2 losses. Same shit. Functionally for top 4 race, 1 vs 0 points is no difference.
Race for top 4 | Finito.
- Thread starter Andycoleno9
- Start date
tbh our form in jan-feb looked like we'd stalled and might fall off, so I can understand people thinking it wouldn't be close.
Code:
31/12/22 Leeds(h) 0-0
03/01/23 Arsenal(a) 0-0
15/01/23 Fulham(h) 1-0
21/01/23 Palace(a) 0-0
04/02/23 West Ham(h) 1-1
11/02/23 Bournemouth(a) 1-1
18/02/23 Liverpool(h) 0-2
04/03/23 Man City(a) 0-2obv howe's turned it around but that wasn't a given.
West Ham away is now a must win however given our form away from home I have no confidence in us being able to win, since the win at Wolves on NYE we have only won away from home twice.
Have we played well in our recent matches though? We don't look in control of many games and give away a good amount of chances. We have 1 goal scorer and that's it's really
Every game we've gone into for a while has felt like 50/50s - home or away
I’m certain we will fail to beat West Ham and then the mentality of the players under pressure will fold.
Last 4 matches will be 50/50 dog fights. So not impossible to win 3 from 4 but very unlikely.
Brighton and Villa were always going to be tough, we fecked up against Spurs though. But before that we outplayed the smaller teams pretty easily. Should be the same against Fulham, B'mouth and Wolves. Especially the latter two allow us to play "our" game and play on their half. I know that sounds crazy after these last three games.
Of course it has. A point tonight would have meant 2 draws and 2 wins from our next 5 would be enough. And Brighton would be further away.
Our odds have increased to reflect it.
Obviously from a financial standpoint its crucial to make top four but sometimes it feels pointless because it’s not like we’re going to all of a sudden play good football just because we are in the champions league. If anything it just highlights how far the club has fallen.
Not just for financial reasons. We need top 4 for recruitment reasons. If we want to play better football we also need the players who usually don't want to go to a club that doesn't play CL.
The amount of games against C-list European opposition, Thursday/Sunday all season, getting disappointingly knocked out to sevilla - again, we’ve been in top 4 nearly all season.
To not get it from this position would be a catastrophe.
Good players want CL football. Break top 4 and it’s a “new” game. Newcastle will benefit greatly from it. Being in it constantly is a recipe for long term success. Simple as that. Look at City.
Newcastle will likely not fall out of the top 4 for several years now.
They’ll spend big, but probably wisely and build a great squad with plenty of depth in the summer.
Perhaps, but plenty of doable and easier than the away games. Still I can see us winning vs West Ham. I will be surprised if we cannot take out Chelsea with the way they are playing right now.
I’ve been getting increasingly worried about our season fizzling out and those doubts are only being amplified by our recent form.
This was always going to be an arduous season, but the drop off in recent months, after the League Cup win, has been significant. Players clearly look physically tired, but mentally I get the impression they’re battered. Almost as though they’re desperate to get over the line and for the season to finish.
Losing Martinez, Varane and Eriksen to injury has had a significant impact, not only in our ability to keep a clean sheet, but also to play out from the back and maintain composure when in possession.
Squad depth has been shown to be severely lacking, with the likes of Fred and Weghorst not having the quality we need at this stage of the season. Trying hard just isn’t good enough.
It’s impossible to ignore the glaring issues all over the pitch. De Gea’s distribution is a problem, and so too is the abysmal finishing of our forward line. I really thought Martial, Antony and Sancho would love the way we setup, but they’ve flattered to deceive. We’re creating chances but aren’t putting them away. Ollie Watkins has scored more than the three of them combined!
Though we’re technically in a good position - top four is in our hands and anything can happen in a cup final - I’m genuinely worried that things could get worse. Our recent collapses have been epic, and we all know it’s not beyond these players to lose their way when it really matters.
Praying that we can get ourselves together and just do enough to secure that Champions League spot. It’s going to take every last ounce of effort, a whole lot of mental strength, and perhaps even a bit of luck to go our way.
I have faith in Erik and want to see him rebuild in the summer, but with these owners and the current squad, I fear what missing out on top four could mean. The next few weeks may not just decide our season, they could define the next few years.
We’re struggling so much on the pitch that it’s difficult to remain optimistic, but pip our rivals to top four and win the FA Cup, and this will have been a tremendous campaign. Genuinely solid foundations for any perspective owners to build on.
Come on Reds, believe and fight until the end.
This was always going to be an arduous season, but the drop off in recent months, after the League Cup win, has been significant. Players clearly look physically tired, but mentally I get the impression they’re battered. Almost as though they’re desperate to get over the line and for the season to finish.
Losing Martinez, Varane and Eriksen to injury has had a significant impact, not only in our ability to keep a clean sheet, but also to play out from the back and maintain composure when in possession.
Squad depth has been shown to be severely lacking, with the likes of Fred and Weghorst not having the quality we need at this stage of the season. Trying hard just isn’t good enough.
It’s impossible to ignore the glaring issues all over the pitch. De Gea’s distribution is a problem, and so too is the abysmal finishing of our forward line. I really thought Martial, Antony and Sancho would love the way we setup, but they’ve flattered to deceive. We’re creating chances but aren’t putting them away. Ollie Watkins has scored more than the three of them combined!
Though we’re technically in a good position - top four is in our hands and anything can happen in a cup final - I’m genuinely worried that things could get worse. Our recent collapses have been epic, and we all know it’s not beyond these players to lose their way when it really matters.
Praying that we can get ourselves together and just do enough to secure that Champions League spot. It’s going to take every last ounce of effort, a whole lot of mental strength, and perhaps even a bit of luck to go our way.
I have faith in Erik and want to see him rebuild in the summer, but with these owners and the current squad, I fear what missing out on top four could mean. The next few weeks may not just decide our season, they could define the next few years.
We’re struggling so much on the pitch that it’s difficult to remain optimistic, but pip our rivals to top four and win the FA Cup, and this will have been a tremendous campaign. Genuinely solid foundations for any perspective owners to build on.
Come on Reds, believe and fight until the end.
49 goals in 33 games shouldn't be good enough for top 4.
If we don't make it then we only have ourselves to blame.
If we don't make it then we only have ourselves to blame.
I think people are underestimating West Ham, especially with us being away. They are easily the best team in the bottom 8.
Also at some point Chelsea have to not be a complete disaster. That game might not be as easy as it seems at this moment. If we lose against west ham I don't think we won 3 of 4 to close out the season with the pressure mounting.
On a related note it is infuriating that as a league we’ve all let Newcastle in so far ahead of schedule. Nightmare scenario could well be minority investment while Newcastle and City clean up season after season.
We’ll make top 4 even if we lose to West Ham.
Nah we'd miss out on the last day as Chelsea get their only win with caretaker Frank
Even then we’d beat Fulham, Wolves, Bournemouth and make it?
Yep. Liverpool,Spurs and us have left them walk to top 4.
Only us and Arsenal would mess this up. So I wouldn’t be surprised.
Saving grace is Liverpool have been rubbish but scraping points. I expect that to end against Brentford.
Saving grace is Liverpool have been rubbish but scraping points. I expect that to end against Brentford.
We arnt losing to Chelsea at home, I just we dont miss out on top 4 on the final day with Dan James and Andreas Pereira coming back to haunt us.
Needing 3 wins and 2 losses vs needing 2 wins and 2 draws and 1 loss is an irrelevant difference. Odds mean feck all. The games remaining are nice, and we will get it comfortably regardless.
andreas just broke his ankle so it won't be him
So you'd see no difference between going into the last game needing a win vs only needing a draw. That's nonsense.
What, you think we'll fail to beat Bournemouth and Lampards Chelsea? That is nonsense.
You think it's a certainty when we couldn't even beat Southampton and Leeds at home? I know which is closer to nonsense.
Could the scouse trio look any happier they have exacted revenge on us just like Newcastle
Given the way we are playing none of our remaining games are a certainty, we seem to do well in the first half but are then are then poor in the 2nd half and Erik dosnt help when he leaves it too late to make subs or makes subs that dont make sence so cause confusion.
I would to know why when we were struggling so badly in the 2nd half Erik decided to use only 3 of his 5 allocated subs despite having people like Eriksen, Malacia, and Pellistri on the bench who could have come on and made a difference.
You were saying. I can seriously see Liverpool leapfrogging us.How can they get closer if both teams keep winning.
We are in a far better position than them. They are completely powerless and are begging us to drop points.
12 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss at home all season. Yet you pick a game we got a dumb red card early and a game amongst a great run of form where we dropped 2 points. Relax, we are fine. We are playing 10th, 12th, 13th (away), 14th and 15th (away) to close out the season. Wolves, Fulham and Chelsea are 18th, 7th and 13th with their away records this season, west ham and bournemouth are 15th and 16th in the league with their home records, and none have anything to play for.
Whether we need 3 wins and 2 losses or 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss... It's irrelevant. We will get more than enough points. For the first time since August we will have actual breaks between games where we can recover and train properly. Thinking a loss today changes anything, by far our hardest game remaining, is complete nonsense. We are literally about to enter our easiest run of fixtures all season and with the most amount of rest between games we've had all season.
What’s funny about this is everyone assumed Brighton are not getting maximum points of 73 which they could, they win their last 6 games and they finish on 73 with a better goal difference than us or Liverpool. Just because they’ve got Arsenal, Newcastle and Villa away plus city at home. Ok they might drop 3 points in one game but they will have a say in the title, assuming they have a bonkers finish and win 5 of their 6 games, so they finish on 70 points.
The reality is we need 9 points so 2 wins 3 draws or 3 wins 2 defeats, I genuinely think Liverpool have so much fire power they win their last 4 games, maybe 3 wins and 1 draw but I have to think they are good for 4 wins.
Newcastle will get minimum points of 73-75 points, the West Ham Game is a must win game, I said we were in a top 4 race three weeks ago and people thought I was mad, the reality is we should be ok but we are in a race because how absolutely awful the whole team is at scoring PL goals, 49 PL goals in 33 games is an average of 1.48 goals per game, it’s truly undeserving of a top 4 team or champions league qualification. We scored 58 last year with a zero goal difference, I highly doubt right now we will score 9 goals in last 5 games, we’ve not scored more than 3 goals in any PL game and we have a 6’7 Hackney marsh striker that we loaned from Burnley that guess what, has not even scored 1 PL goal.
I just hope ETH can see this season out, and qualify for CL, our existing owners like to blame managers when we don’t make top 4 and the two potential new owners will have no problems in sacking him into the start of the new season if they don’t get the right results which would be seriously the wrong decision for the club.
And we’ve just dropped 5 points from the last 9 available. Do that I’m the next three games it’s practically over.
They’ve had a considerable amount of luck which has been part of their “improvement.” Let’s see if their luck runs out.
Why would odds mean nothing?
Why is it funny to assume Brighton won't? It is absolutely bonkers to assume Brighton will win their last 8 games straight when they haven't managed more than 3 wins in a row all season. Except now they play city... Arsenal... Newcastle... Villa. Come on. Obviously they aren't getting close to their max. Liverpool actually might. 72 guarantees it for us.
We aren't in a top 4 race. The only reason it looks like it is because we still have games in hand. 5 remaining games, we will get it with a game or 2 to spare.
What from 90% to 86%? Irrelevant difference. We have all but sewn up top 4.