Whatever happens, the worst thing is people will continue making this same joke again and again.
Randal Kolo Muani
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Where’s indication that United is seriously considering this a good idea? I feel like some random tabloid said Frankfurt would want 120M’s and not people are running with it as gospel/as if United has sent the fax in. I’m just confused - where’s all this coming from?
Exactly the opposite. Which is why I said:
I'm asking about him while referring to his stats, not judging him based on his stats.
But as for the the Kane/ Muani comparison in terms of stats:
1) I was comparing npxG/90 in league games as per fbref. So Kane's corresponding number this season is 0.45, not 0.39.
2) Muani's 0.37 is the highest of his career so far. For Kane it would be the lowest of his career so far, with his peak having been 0.66.
3) Kane has generated his numbers in the PL, not the weaker BL, so it's not a like for like comparison. It's also why I don't assume Osimhen's numbers would stay the same should he move to the PL.
4) In Kane's case we can also point to him consistently overperforming his npxg throughout a long career, with him having finished above "expected" in 5 of his last 6 seasons. In Muani's case the stats don't yet offer the assurance that he is an above-average finisher.
5) If we look beyond goalscoring, Muani and Kane's xAG numbers are similar (though again, with one in a weaker league than the other). But other stats aren't. For example in terms of base passing stats Muani is notably worse than both Kane and Osimhen.
Pass completion: Muani 63.0%, Osimhen 69.0%, Kane 66.6%.
Short pass completion: Muani 68.0%, Osimhen 77.7%, Kane 74.7%
Medium pass completion: Muani 68.3%, Osimhen 69.5%, Kane 75.6%
Long pass completion: Muani 50.0%, Osimhen 76.5%, Kane 61.3%.
Obviously Osimhen's stats benefit from making fewer and safer passes, as reflected in his lower xAG. But even still, it's hardly positive reading from Muani's POV that he's so much more wasteful than the other two across the board.
He is being mentioned in the context of a massive money deal, with people comparing him to Osimhen/Kane and some even arguing he might be a better option than one or both. And in that context I think it's fair to say that his numbers come with a whole host of red flags.
But again, not judging, because I've seen nothing of him. People who watch him regularly might have an explanation for why his numbers are so notably less promising than the players he is being compared to. I'm just very curious to know why he's so highly rated against all that, becuase there's such a clear contrast. If he is that good then he'd be a pretty unique/special player.
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It’s weird how that doesn’t happen at all
I wouldnt pay that sum for any bundesliga player that isnt clearly a generational talent like Haaland. Not even Belligham. Son, Firminho were all "low profile" players, punts that may or may not work. I agree with those, just like I said in my previous post anything above 50-60M is way too much nevermind 120M.
Bundesliga players should be analized under a different glass, specially fast players given the way the teams set up in that league. It's great for pacy attackers that can take advantage of the huge gaps left in defense.
He is not as good IMO as Osimhen or Kane, but he brings something in that he can create for himself and others, mostly by taking players on and releasing others into dangerous areas.
Can go out wide or drop deep and turn and go at defenders, also has shown ability to play on the last defenders for through balls, which is pretty useful in a fast transition setup. Decent hold up play, quick feet which he showed against Kim for Napoli before getting sent off quite harshly I would say. His goalscoring stats won't be great I think because he is not necessarily a pure CF who feeds off chances created for him
Absolutely - player profiles > actual ability, always. It's why, say, Jadon Sancho just hasn't worked at all, despite being a very talented player. We genuinely spent 2 years trying to sign him without knowing where he'd fit. We still don't really know now.
Kane’s touching 30, will be costly and should be declining relatively soon
Osimhen same age as Kolo Muani (younger by a few weeks) would also be costly and is a monster goal threat, hard worker but his technical side might not be the best. He’s better than Lukaku but I always think of Lukaku when the conversation is signing a player with a proven goalscoring record and that’s not the most technically sound
Kolo Muani is not as good as both yet, but could develop into a serious player, would probably be the cheapest option too. Seems pretty good all around, good on the ball, can create and drift wide, take people on etc - would probably gel well with Rashford
Osimhen same age as Kolo Muani (younger by a few weeks) would also be costly and is a monster goal threat, hard worker but his technical side might not be the best. He’s better than Lukaku but I always think of Lukaku when the conversation is signing a player with a proven goalscoring record and that’s not the most technically sound
Kolo Muani is not as good as both yet, but could develop into a serious player, would probably be the cheapest option too. Seems pretty good all around, good on the ball, can create and drift wide, take people on etc - would probably gel well with Rashford
All of them are playing different tactical (sub) roles, in different setups with different quality team mates. There's a ton of factors, why some player has more xG than another, some of them may be related to their quality (better movement), some may be related to their tactical role (poacher, vs more complete forward), some may be related to the amount of possession their teams have and the level of service they get. So you tell me what it means if Harry Kane had 0.06 xG more than Kolo Muani, because I think trying to interpret that minimal difference is pointless.
In terms of finishing Kolo Muani is in his third season, he's outperformed xG in his last two, which would suggest that his lowish goal output is not down to a lack of finishing skills. Beyond that: is this a stat you want to interpret, beyond stating that the 23 year old can't look back on six seasons of xG stats?
Pass completion stats, my favourite
So Kolo Muani has 50% long pass completion. He plays one long pass per game on average, so he misses half a long pass on average per game and that does make him so much more wasteful than .e.g Harry Kane, who misses 1.6 long passes per game? On the other hand with Osimhen the fact that he has low xAG counts against his passing stats, but the fact that Kolo Muani has a higher xAG than Kane with a lower volume of passes doesn't mean he's maybe playing a more direct/higher risk/reward passing style, no it just means he's strictly worse?
And what does notably less promising even mean? If I take Osimhen's stats at face value I could call him Haaland light, which means all of his goal scoring might come at the expense of the team (to some degree) and if he - for whatever reason - can't keep up his xG overperformance he could look like a donkey.
Kolo Muani's stats don't look bad, they show he's much more involved than Osimhen, he's good at progressing the ball via carries and he sets his team mates up for goals, something Osimhen barely seems to do at all. But as a consequence he only gets to take half as many shots as Osimhen.
So as with every transfer: first you have to assess how good the player actually is - purple patch / team mates vs actual individual quality and then you have to ask yourself what kind of player profile you'd want to sign. In general Muani had his first good season, he's playing for a medium sized club with a more counter attacking setup and I think his kind of player type, who gets involved a lot, but not necessarily with his back towards goal, would probably fit more into a wider role than a central striker's role for most big teams, so I'd be very hesitant to sign him for huge money.
Given I already agreed on the fee, it's a bit irrelevant.
You belittled his talent to simply being a fast player playing in a league with huge space, that is what I called out as a crazy take because he obviously has a lot more to his game than that.
Its obviously related to the fee quoted. Any professional player is more than just fast. Anyway bottom line is I think we need better.
I think he could be a good buy for us. Just not at the quoted fee.
backup option to who? Weghorst? Ok..
It said in the post.
Backup option if neither Kane or Oshimen are gettable.
This trend of watching football matches on Opta or this Fb thing I keep seeing quoted needs to stop. Put the fecking telly on you weirdos.
Muani does look like a player who would be compatible with the way we want to play football but I can't for the life of me understand why I keep seeing him being spoken about as a €100m+ player in the media. He'd represent a punt at even half that fee.
Sorry
Somehow the model of Brighton and Brentford works quite good despite you would tell them that they are weirdos who should put the tv on. As student in the quantitative field i may be a bit biased but all this „stats ain‘t it put the telly on“ is also not the only truth
Cool bro. You football fans at home keep trying to pretend you are pro scouts or work in recruitment departments.
If you want to know if a footballer is a good footballer - watch him play football. And after you watch a game of football, whoever played the best played the best.
They are both needed
Madness I tell you.
Ah yes the tried and tested eye-test which simply never fails and has been the basis for United's successful recruitment for the last ten years while the laptops at Liverpool, Brentford and Brighton have been making fools of themselves in the transfer market over the same period.
Don't be a spoofer. Only idiots are decrying the use of data in this day and age. It's also laughable to think any normal person with a life can watch enough football to watch every footballer in every league so tools like fbref are hugely invaluable.
If Nunez was £100m, where would this (in theory) place the value of Muani? Same?
In reality it seems his true value should be £60-80m based on today's market, plus the fact if we are taken over by a billionaire the "United Tax" will be inflated to the high heavens.
In reality it seems his true value should be £60-80m based on today's market, plus the fact if we are taken over by a billionaire the "United Tax" will be inflated to the high heavens.
Still too high
From what you’ve seen who would you say has more potential - Isak or Muani? ( I know the former is younger but pure talent)
I have not seen Isak in a while but unless he has improved Kolo Muani is a better player but they are different. From what I remember Isak is not really a creator or someone particularly useful during the build up phase, he is mobile and can beat an opponent when he has a bit of space but it's for himself since he plays higher than Kolo Muani.
For lack of better example, Kolo Muani closest comparison would be a Aldi version of a young Griezmann, the one that wasn't fully developed by Simeone. That's why the people suggesting that he is maybe better as a wide player or that he isn't a true number 9 have a point. Paying big money for him is risky because you need to have a role for an unusual player but then when you look at the way ETH is using Weghorst, the role for Kolo Muani seems obvious.
He looks like a potentially very confusing player to deal with if he has the 2 correct inverted forwards on either side of him.
Rash/Garnacho~kolo muani~****Nwood/antony
looks like quite a creative CF.
looks like quite a creative CF.
Could have made this point to several other posts here, it's a general one: It's not actually a well-supported assumption that if a player goes from one league to another and better league, then he cannot be expected to perform equally well unless he improves his game. There are many examples to the contrary (Haaland, for one - he's scoring at a higher rate in the PL than he has in any other league he has played in, and that's probably not because he has become a much better player individually than he was 9 months ago).
The equation changes on both sides - he will face better opponents, but he will also have better teammates. It all depends on the player and what he brings and how that fits into things, but clearly it is sometimes the case that moving to a better league makes it more rather than less likely that a player can deliver at a certain level.
Oh I agree completely. I'm assuming there's a risk of a drop-off because I assume that's more common than the reverse, but it can absolutely go in the other direction.
Even from a purely statistical POV, someone like Nunez is on exactly the same npxG in the PL that he was last season for Benfica, for example. Whereas in contrast someone like Timo Werner's nearly halved when he moved to the PL (though even then, there may have been other factors involved too).
Even for professional scouts it's insanely tough to predict how an individual player will fare, let alone internet fans.
No, I think you're probably right that a drop-off is more common than the reverse. And your last point is spot on. How do you even reliably figure out how much of the performance is down to individual traits and actions, and how much a product of traits of the collective he's part of? And then you have to make assumptions about how able the player will be to overcome the increased obstacles he'll be facing in a new and better league, how much he'll be able to adapt his game both for that and to take advantage of the increased opportunities that comes from playing with better teammates. It's no wonder even the most well-resourced organisations get it right no more than maybe half the time.
Watched him yesterday against Netherlands. Good player, but not special or worthy of a 100 million price tag.
I think we would be better off with a pure striker.
I think we would be better off with a pure striker.
Scored 2 quick goals for Frankfurt against union Berlin. Looks an handful upfront. Makes good runs.
I’m almost positive scouts use analytics and watch tape. Crazy idea but might just be true.
Good for them. That makes it no less weird if football fans decided to read numbers instead of watching football matches. That would almost be a redefining of the word football fan. Probably redefining it to football scout or football analyst, coming to think of it.
And I’m not even sure how scouts watching tape disproves me anyway.
Key point being they watch football. Analytics is only a supplement to add context.
Rashford needs competition for the LW because Sancho certainly isn't providing it. Would be a decent signing.
Erm, Garnacho??
Well I get that you want another LW. But why are you posting about that in this thread? Kolo Muani isn't a winger, but a striker.
He doesn’t play on the left. And we have Garnacho.