Rasmus Højlund | Signed for United

[zaafi]

Still means nothing. Its probably not a better ratio than Martial.

Probably not, no, but that's not Martial's issue either. His is more staying free of injuries, his attitude and his work rate. He actually scores goals when on form, but he just never can stay in form for more than three games.

 

[OsloRed]

Still means nothing. Its probably not a better ratio than Martial.

Why on earth does it mean nothing? Does it mean less than goal per game?

 

[zaafi]

Not a fair comparison at all. When City signed Haaland, everyone already knew that he was a sure thing. He'd just scored 29 goals in 30 matches for Dortmund the season before, and a ridiculous 41 goals in 41 matches the season before that. It was a situation where everyone knew exactly what City (or any club lucky enough) was going to get for their money.

Right now, Hojlund is an unknown commodity. You don't really know yet what kind of output your money is going to buy you. If you're willing to take a chance on a young player, I think you do it at 20 or 30 million, not 60 or 70 million, because more often than not they don't turn into the Harry Kanes or Victor Osimhens of the world.

Osimhen should not be mentioned in the same sentence as Kane when comparing their quality. Besides, Højlund has shown more than what Osimhen did at 20.

 

[Bebestation]

How many goals per 90 mins?

 

[acnumber9]

Not a fair comparison at all. When City signed Haaland, everyone already knew that he was a sure thing. He'd just scored 29 goals in 30 matches for Dortmund the season before, and a ridiculous 41 goals in 41 matches the season before that. It was a situation where everyone knew exactly what City (or any club lucky enough) was going to get for their money.

Right now, Hojlund is an unknown commodity. You don't really know yet what kind of output your money is going to buy you. If you're willing to take a chance on a young player, I think you do it at 20 or 30 million, not 60 or 70 million, because more often than not they don't turn into the Harry Kanes or Victor Osimhens of the world.

Osimhen is a bad example given Napoli bought him for 70m Euros after a season in France.

 

[Red_Manc_M15]

Hello

Not wanting to get in big debate but remember Haller?

Maybe spelled wrong but he flopped at West Ham and the next season I'm sure ETH had him as the highest scoring forward in the CL games.

My point being Erik could resign Fellaini and I'd back him.

He can turn a poor player into a very capable one.

 

[Laurencio]

He will be bought and he will 100% be starting ahead of Martial and Rashford, after a period of settling in. Will be nice to see us with a proper 9 up top. I expect big things from the kid. And U believe he will shred.

He's really impressive with his back to goal and looks like he has the potential to be a very well rounded #9.

 

[CasaStreets]

For those saying we need someone older and proven, I think we're actually in a great position to develop someone up front. My main reason for this is Garnacho.

Last season, Garnacho had 35 appearances but only 1307 minutes, or 37 min per appearance. You have to believe that ETH is planning Garnacho's minutes will increase significantly this year - potentially pushing 2000 minutes or more. For Rashford, this should mean more rest, but it also means more playing time up front. Plus, Martial is probably good for 15-30 appearances, which isn't nothing. All of that means a developing player like Hojland should be able to share the load, since it's very likely we want to find more time up front for Rashford anyway.

Second, I love that this fella is a childhood United supporter - can only be good for his personal motivation and the dressing room. Definitely fits with ETH's desire to have a dressing room of players who want to be here.

 

[lex talionis]

If Kane wants to come, he should force the move himself but he looks like he is Levy's bitch so I'm not counting on it.
Anything is better than another season with Martial and Weghorst. Even a striker from the Belgian Pro League should be better than what we have now. We cannot go in to the season with just Martial as striker, I would prefer if we could ship him out

Without question the only way Harry Kane goes to OT is if he presses for the move. He's a pretty reserved guy so we may not see his camp send signals that Kane wants to move to OT, but it really is the best option for him and quite frankly for Spurs. Levy is is full delusion mode if he actually believes that Spurs are a direct competitor to United. On the other hand, it may well be the case that Harry is happy to wind up his career as a lifetime Spurs man regardless of whether he ever lifts a trophy.

But on the point you're making, we can no more go into the new season without a striker than we could without a CB or CDM. It's unthinkable that we would go into the season with Martial as our striker. And even then, with no backup.

 

[bosnian_red]

Atalanta scored the third-most goals in Serie A last season, 66 goals, and Hojlund only scored 9 of them, in 32 appearances.

I hope I'm wrong, but I feel like we're going to pay 60 million or more for a kid who is going to score 5-10 goals per season for us.

We're going to look like idiots for having not gone all-out for Kane, I can feel it.

He just turned 20 in February. It was his first season in a serious league. He's just under 1 in 2 for both goals and xG per 90, as a lot of his early appearances were naturally subs. He has 6 goals for Denmark just this year in 4 games. Players in their first few years progress quickly. He looks like he is progressing very quickly and adapted quickly from the Danish league to Austrian league to Serie A.

Kane isn't possible this summer. There is no going all out, it's just not possible. They demand 100m from Bayern, from us it would've been 140m. We don't have that money. We have 50-60m to spend on a CF and that's it. If Kane is there next summer, by all means go for him.

 

[DJ_21]

After seeing our negotiations this summer I can see us getting the fee down. Makes no sense that Muani from Frankfurt would be our alternative yet he’ll cost twice as much.

 

[VP89]

Probably not, no, but that's not Martial's issue either. His is more staying free of injuries, his attitude and his work rate. He actually scores goals when on form, but he just never can stay in form for more than three games.

Yep exactly. My concern with Hojlund is he's very unpolished and I'm unconvinced if it's something he can improve upon to the level required.

Why on earth does it mean nothing? Does it mean less than goal per game?

It means nothing because as an isolated stat it's pretty meaningless.

 

[Todd]

Osimhen should not be mentioned in the same sentence as Kane when comparing their quality. Besides, Højlund has shown more than what Osimhen did at 20.

I only mention Osimhen because he's a player who has recently shown himself to be an elite goalscorer. Napoli paid a lot of money for him at a young age, and luckily for them it worked out very well. But if Hojlund has shown more at 20 than Osimhen did, as you claim, it's by a very slim margin. I believe Napoli bought Osimhen when he was 21, and he'd just come off a season of scoring 18 goals for Lille.

 

[Todd]

He just turned 20 in February. It was his first season in a serious league. He's just under 1 in 2 for both goals and xG per 90, as a lot of his early appearances were naturally subs. He has 6 goals for Denmark just this year in 4 games. Players in their first few years progress quickly. He looks like he is progressing very quickly and adapted quickly from the Danish league to Austrian league to Serie A.

Kane isn't possible this summer. There is no going all out, it's just not possible. They demand 100m from Bayern, from us it would've been 140m. We don't have that money. We have 50-60m to spend on a CF and that's it. If Kane is there next summer, by all means go for him.

The interesting thing will be if Kane stays at Spurs. If he does, and come the winter break we're biting at the heels of City and Arsenal and we're on our way to the knockout stage in CL, would a cheeky bid for Kane in the January window be worth it? Especially if it looks at that point that he could be the thing that gives us a serious chance at stealing the league or making a deep run in CL...

 

[Cathy Ferguson]

He just turned 20 in February. It was his first season in a serious league. He's just under 1 in 2 for both goals and xG per 90, as a lot of his early appearances were naturally subs. He has 6 goals for Denmark just this year in 4 games. Players in their first few years progress quickly. He looks like he is progressing very quickly and adapted quickly from the Danish league to Austrian league to Serie A.

Kane isn't possible this summer. There is no going all out, it's just not possible. They demand 100m from Bayern, from us it would've been 140m. We don't have that money. We have 50-60m to spend on a CF and that's it. If Kane is there next summer, by all means go for him.

Levy would be stupid to turn down 50m in January if Höjlund needs more time.

 

[Ibi Dreams]

I didn't think we were actually going for him tbh, but the recent links do seem to suggest we really are.

I'm all for it, it's a gamble but why not take it? The potential upside is obvious, and there really aren't any clear cut better alternatives without spending £100m+. I agree with the post above, we're in a pretty good position to develop a striker. For those reasons mentioned, and because I don't think realistically we can expect to win the league in the coming season.

For me Hojlund has the most appealing profile/skillset of all the strikers we've been linked with that aren't named Kane or Osimhen. He's still just a prospect, but the way that he plays is what I want in a striker

 

[OsloRed]

Yep exactly. My concern with Hojlund is he's very unpolished and I'm unconvinced if it's something he can improve upon to the level required.


It means nothing because as an isolated stat it's pretty meaningless.

Of course, every stat needs context. I do believe the context here is favourable, though. There was a post citing an article a couple of pages back that went into detail on some of these stats and their context a couple of pages back. A pretty good read!

 

[RuudTom83]

Posts like this always make me smile, I saw these posts with Kane
Yet if we didn't sign him and he went on to become the next Haaland you would be moaning that we should have signed him before. You really can't win with the majority of our fans that use this forum. Moan moan moan whinge whinge whinge.

True!

A large part of the Cafe take huge joy in being "embarrassed" about the club and will twist any scenario to achieve such joy.

 

[JJ12]

Atalanta scored the third-most goals in Serie A last season, 66 goals, and Hojlund only scored 9 of them, in 32 appearances.

I hope I'm wrong, but I feel like we're going to pay 60 million or more for a kid who is going to score 5-10 goals per season for us.

We're going to look like idiots for having not gone all-out for Kane, I can feel it.

You’re assuming that he stays at his current level. He’s obviously going to evolve naturally and add in the fact the better players around him.

He’s extremely talented and only going to get better.

 

[Wing Attack Plan R]

14, 13, 13 league goals from open play in last 3 seasons and he played lot of mins too.

Hojlund scored 9 league goals in 1800 mins. Hojlund played in better league too.

I think removing penalty goals from tallies is misleading. The better metric would be, did the player who scored the penalty create the foul that led to the penalty? So if a player's movement in the box results in defenders bringing him down, that indicates his movement is good. If any of these players came in to their teams and were assigned penalty duties as 20 and 21 year-olds, that also speaks to their composure and their finishing abilities. You'd imagine there were older players at their clubs who were the designated penalty takers, yet these younger players took over, for a reason. Penalty goals are not disallowed from golden boot awards, at least far as I know.

 

[Cassidy]

Atalanta scored the third-most goals in Serie A last season, 66 goals, and Hojlund only scored 9 of them, in 32 appearances.

I hope I'm wrong, but I feel like we're going to pay 60 million or more for a kid who is going to score 5-10 goals per season for us.

We're going to look like idiots for having not gone all-out for Kane, I can feel it.

If you're going to do stats do them properly.

He played 1834 minutes in the league and scored 9 goals with 4 assists.
He played 63 minutes in the cup and scored 1 goal with 0 assists.

Thats league only:

A goal every 203 minutes (or 2.25 games) and a goal and assists every 141 minutes (1.6 games) its hardly bad stats for a 20 year old.

 

[zaafi]

I only mention Osimhen because he's a player who has recently shown himself to be an elite goalscorer. Napoli paid a lot of money for him at a young age, and luckily for them it worked out very well. But if Hojlund has shown more at 20 than Osimhen did, as you claim, it's by a very slim margin. I believe Napoli bought Osimhen when he was 21, and he'd just come off a season of scoring 18 goals for Lille.

Ah, fair enough.

Osimhen had scored 13 in the league, which of 2 were penalties. He played around 500 more minutes in the league than Højlund had.
What I mean when I say Højlund has shown more at 20 than Osimhen did, I'm talking about his movement, hold-up and link-up play. He also operates surprisingly well in little space and has great instincts in the box.
Osimhen, while stronger, much better aerially and generally more established didn't show these characteristics for Lille at 20, and still hasn't developed his link-up play at all. Another factor to consider is that usually it is easier for a forward to score in Ligue 1 than Serie A because teams are more about attacking than defending, which leaves a lot of space to operate in. Serie A on the other hand is generally very defensive and as a striker, you'll have defenders all around you.

Osimhen has managed brilliantly here and I have to give him that, but it's more because he's able to bully defenders with his strength and his ridiculous aerial ability more than his movement and instincts.

Personally, I believe Højlund will be better than Osimhen when he is 24, and maybe even sooner if he develops under Ten Hag, but as with anything in football, it's impossible to say for sure.

 

[zaafi]

I think removing penalty goals from tallies is misleading. The better metric would be, did the player who scored the penalty create the foul that led to the penalty? So if a player's movement in the box results in defenders bringing him down, that indicates his movement is good. If any of these players came in to their teams and were assigned penalty duties as 20 and 21 year-olds, that also speaks to their composure and their finishing abilities. You'd imagine there were older players at their clubs who were the designated penalty takers, yet these younger players took over, for a reason. Penalty goals are not disallowed from golden boot awards, at least far as I know.

It's not misleading at all. Would you expect Højlund to be on penalty duty over Bruno?

He wouldn't, so it's better to see how many open-play goals he is about and how much he can offer us. Penalties say nothing about your ability as a striker.

The metric you suggest would say absolutely nothing about a striker's movement either, because as we all know, there are some incredibly dumb decisions made by both referees and defenders, so it would have to be a lot more complex to understand whether the penalty given was because of a striker's movement or a stupid challenge by a defender. So complex it's quite frankly unrealistic and unneccessary to implenent.

 

[RedRonaldo]

To put things into perspective, lets compare Hojlund with other top strikers at the same age (19-20) or (prior to 20):


Hojlund - 16 goals in 42 games (Serie A + Austrian league), 27 goals in 87 games (prior to 20)

GOAT teenage striker:
Haaland - 44 goals in 40 games (BL + Austrian league), 65 goals in 111 games (prior to 20)
L.Ronaldo - 19 goals in 21 games (Dutch league), 98 goals in 104 games (prior to 20)

Top teenage sensational:
Fowler - 31 goals in 57 games (PL), 49 goals in 90 games (prior to 20)
Augero - 27 goals in 50 games (La Liga), 57 goals in 148 games (prior to 20)
Owen - 23 goals in 40 games (PL), 47 goals in 86 games (prior to 20)
Torres - 21 goals in 40 games (La Liga), 43 goals in 115 games (prior to 20)

Top teenage talent:
Lukaku - 17 goals in 38 games (PL), 58 goals in 148 games (prior to 20)
Rooney - 17 goals in 43 games (PL), 34 goals in 120 games (prior to 20)
Shearer - 14 goals in 48 games (PL), 42 goal in 98 games (prior to 20)
Greenwood - 12 goals in 52 games (PL), 29 goals in 105 games (prior to 20)

Promising teenage striker:
RVP - 15 goals in 28 games (Dutch league), 15 goals in 45 games (prior to 20)
Suarez - 15 goals in 37 games (Dutch league), 27 goals in 72 games (prior to 20)
Rashford - 11 goals in 53 games (PL), 19 goals in 71 games (prior to 20)
Lewandwoski - 21 goals in 34 games (Poland 2nd division)
Benzema - 8 goals in 21 games (Ligue 1)
Griezmann - 7 goals in 39 games (La Liga)
Batistuta - 8 goals in 28 games (Argentina league)
Cavani - 7 goals in 22 games (Serie A + Uruguay league)

Other:
Kane - 2 goals in 21 games (Championship)
Ruud - 2 goals in 21 games (Dutch league)
Ibrahimovic - 3 goals in 12 games (Swedish league)
Nunez - 3 goals in 8 games
Osimhen - 0 goal in 13 games
Immobile - 0 goal in 4 games

 

[lex talionis]

In that case if we should be prepared to spend 120m on Kane then we should be prepared to spend 300m on Mbappe in which case we should be prepared to spend 7.4 billion to genetically modify Messi and bring back a younger version of him.

Nice try.

 

[Leftback99]

Far from convinced from the little I've seen of him. Depends on the price I suppose.
I expect we'll see a lot of Rashford up front and Garnacho starting LW this season anyway.

 

[honirelandboy]

To put things into perspective, lets compare Hojlund with other top strikers at the same age (19-20) or (prior to 20):


Hojlund - 16 goals in 42 games (Serie A + Austrian league), 27 goals in 87 games (prior to 20)

GOAT teenage striker:
Haaland - 44 goals in 40 games (BL + Austrian league), 65 goals in 111 games (prior to 20)
L.Ronaldo - 19 goals in 21 games (Dutch league), 98 goals in 104 games (prior to 20)

Top teenage sensational:
Fowler - 31 goals in 57 games (PL), 49 goals in 90 games (prior to 20)
Augero - 27 goals in 50 games (La Liga), 57 goals in 148 games (prior to 20)
Owen - 23 goals in 40 games (PL), 47 goals in 86 games (prior to 20)
Torres - 21 goals in 40 games (La Liga), 43 goals in 115 games (prior to 20)

Top teenage talent:
Lukaku - 17 goals in 38 games (PL), 58 goals in 148 games (prior to 20)
Rooney - 17 goals in 43 games (PL), 34 goals in 120 games (prior to 20)
Shearer - 14 goals in 48 games (PL), 42 goal in 98 games (prior to 20)
Greenwood - 12 goals in 52 games (PL), 29 goals in 105 games (prior to 20)

Promising teenage striker:
RVP - 15 goals in 28 games (Dutch league), 15 goals in 45 games (prior to 20)
Suarez - 15 goals in 37 games (Dutch league), 27 goals in 72 games (prior to 20)
Rashford - 11 goals in 53 games (PL), 19 goals in 71 games (prior to 20)
Lewandwoski - 21 goals in 34 games (Poland 2nd division)
Benzema - 8 goals in 21 games (Ligue 1)
Griezmann - 7 goals in 39 games (La Liga)
Batistuta - 8 goals in 28 games (Argentina league)
Cavani - 7 goals in 22 games (Serie A + Uruguay league)

Other:
Kane - 2 goals in 21 games (Championship)
Ruud - 2 goals in 21 games (Dutch league)
Ibrahimovic - 3 goals in 12 games (Swedish league)
Nunez - 3 goals in 8 games
Osimhen - 0 goal in 13 games
Immobile - 0 goal in 4 games

There easing him in like we do with Garnacho. Hojlund played 1834 minutes played last season which is 20 full games roughly and got 9 goals and 4 assists which is good for 20 year old. He averaged a goal or assist every 141 minutes. In the Italian league there is 38 games or 3420 minutes. Potentially if he started every for Atlanta game that's 3420/141 which would be 24 goals or assists last season. Unless you have the other players goals/assists to minutes ratio the above stats are pretty pointless.

 

[lex talionis]

Atalanta scored the third-most goals in Serie A last season, 66 goals, and Hojlund only scored 9 of them, in 32 appearances.

I hope I'm wrong, but I feel like we're going to pay 60 million or more for a kid who is going to score 5-10 goals per season for us.

We're going to look like idiots for having not gone all-out for Kane, I can feel it.

The time to go all out for Kane is after Tottenham host United on August 19. There is ZERO chance that Levy will sell to us before then. Can you imagine Kane playing for United at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in their season opener? I cannot. But then again, I never thought a gimpy Kirk Gibson had a snowball's chance in hell against Dennis Eckersley and the man hit, against all odds, hit what could be argued as the most dramatic and consequential as well as improbable home run of all time.

Others will say zero chance Levy ever sells Kane to us, but I remember the Berbatov saga well and that ended with Berbatov in our pocket. That was a different time, no doubt, but not a different Levy.

If buying Hojlund this week means we have ZERO chance of landing Kane between August 20 and September 1 I am opposed to buying Hojlund. But if we buy Hojlund and the Kane-to-Bayern plan falls apart, we need to be in for Kane if there is more than a ZERO chance we could secure the financing to make that happen. There's always a way for a club the colossal size of United to make that kind of deal happen.

 

[Scholsey2004]

Hopefully we have no intention of actually going for Muani. He isn't really a striker.

We need a proper number 9 and RTH seemingly wants Hojlund. Valuation difference appears small so don't see any reason it shouldn't get done

Muani looks a poor man's Rashford to me. They would likely be competing for the same areas of the attack.

 

[Powderfinger]

Ah, fair enough.

Osimhen had scored 13 in the league, which of 2 were penalties. He played around 500 more minutes in the league than Højlund had.
What I mean when I say Højlund has shown more at 20 than Osimhen did, I'm talking about his movement, hold-up and link-up play. He also operates surprisingly well in little space and has great instincts in the box.
Osimhen, while stronger, much better aerially and generally more established didn't show these characteristics for Lille at 20, and still hasn't developed his link-up play at all. Another factor to consider is that usually it is easier for a forward to score in Ligue 1 than Serie A because teams are more about attacking than defending, which leaves a lot of space to operate in. Serie A on the other hand is generally very defensive and as a striker, you'll have defenders all around you.

I agree with the rest of what you've written but the bolded part I don't see at all.

Hojlund is quite adept at hold up play and he seems like a terror in space, on the break, and in broken situations after a turnover. I've seen very little across a number of video compilations to suggest that he has the ball skills to be effective either solo or as a combination player when the spaces get tight or very effective against organized defenses.

This has come out in every touch videos too but just to take one example, watching a compilation of his league goals in Serie A just now, what I see is this:

-Keeper mistake, slides to steal and score
-On the break in a broken field situation, running at a disorganized back line
-Another breakaway 1 v 1
-Defense is defending deep, gets a good scrappy goal
-Does really well here against a defense that isn't tight but is relatively deep, beats a man and scores back across the far post.
-Running on the break again into the six yard box against a broken defense scrambling to get back.
-Another 1 v 1 on the break.
-Runs behind a deepish defensive line for another 1 v 1
-Again running in a broken field situation past a disorganized defensive line
-Another situation, probably off a turnover, where he gets just past a disorganized line that is scrambling to get back and pokes in.
-Great hustle to block the keeper's pass right into the net.

Things that I didn't see in any of this goals: He never scored with his head, never scored off a set piece, only scored once when having the ball at his feet with a man in front of him and needing to create a yard of space to get off a shot, never scored after a quick 1-2 passing combination with a team mate, probably only scored one goal against a defense that had more than 5 or 6 players around the box and was defending in an kind of semi-organized way.

None of this is to say that he can't develop the ability to score in these other ways over time. But he's isn't exactly Romario in the box or with the ball at his feet.

 

[bosnian_red]

Things that I didn't see in any of this goals: He never scored with his head, never scored off a set piece, only scored once when having the ball at his feet with a man in front of him and needing to create a yard of space to get off a shot, never scored after a quick 1-2 passing combination with a team mate, probably only scored one goal against a defense that had more than 5 or 6 players around the box and was defending in an kind of semi-organized way.

None of this is to say that he can't develop the ability to score in these other ways over time. But he's isn't exactly Romario in the box or with the ball at his feet.

Was reading an article this morning but for the heading part at least, he takes a higher percentage of his shot attempts with his head than Haaland does (and higher with his weaker foot). Also he's scored with his head for Denmark, along with another with his foot showing a great front post run to sneak ahead of the defender and get on the end of a cross.

While I agree that he's not going to be a quick footed type of player, that's not a problem. He's not that type. You look at the best 6' plus strikers over the past 10 years, you have Ibra, Dzeko, Cavani, Lewandowski, Benzema, Kane, Giroud, Lukaku, Diego Costa... Most of them aren't particularly "quick footed", close control/dribblers types. Lewandowski has quick feet but plays a different game, Benzema and Ibra had their periods where they were dribblers, but we're talking about 3 iconic all timers. Dzeko, Cavani, Kane is the somewhat realistic target type of player that Hojlund I think has the mix of technique and play style for. Whether he puts it all together and progresses like them who knows, but he's more technical at his age IMO than Lukaku was, he has more variety and pace to his game than someone like Giroud. Aside from that, the only guys from the above list who actually did more than Hojlund at his age are Lukaku (who again, was entirely based off of physicality and doesn't really belong on this list as he's more of a Haaland type specimen where he knew how to use his body as a teenager) and then Benzema who was a very different type of CF.

The guys who I think Hojlund can follow in terms of development if all goes well a blend of Lewandowski, Dzeko, Cavani, Kane, Giroud... None of them were even playing in a big league at 20, none looked elite, but they displayed some elite talents and traits where you could see them put it together. You're looking at roughly age 23 on average for these types to really kick on. The problem is once they do kick on, they are virtually impossible to sign. An all round CF with the mix of pace and power but also technique to play for a top side. That's the hope with him.

 

[doomy20]

Probably not, no, but that's not Martial's issue either. His is more staying free of injuries, his attitude and his work rate. He actually scores goals when on form, but he just never can stay in form for more than three games.

This. Martials goal scoring would actually be fine but we as a club can’t profit from that when he is like a sick, depressed glass bone human being.

 

[AnotherLondonManc]

I think removing penalty goals from tallies is misleading. The better metric would be, did the player who scored the penalty create the foul that led to the penalty? So if a player's movement in the box results in defenders bringing him down, that indicates his movement is good. If any of these players came in to their teams and were assigned penalty duties as 20 and 21 year-olds, that also speaks to their composure and their finishing abilities. You'd imagine there were older players at their clubs who were the designated penalty takers, yet these younger players took over, for a reason. Penalty goals are not disallowed from golden boot awards, at least far as I know.

I get what you're trying to say, but I think your proposed metric is even more misleading.

The average xg when a penalty is conceded in the PL is 0.06. So, often times, a penalty isn't even conceded in a position of imminent danger, and can be as much to do with poor defending as it is good attacking.

Non penalty xg is a far more valuable metric as it accounts solely for the player's ability to get into scoring positions. Statistics like touches in the box, and fouls won are far more reliable to indicate a player's likelihood to win a penalty.

And, while a young player taking penalties would give an indication of their maturity and composure, this could just be due to circumstance. For example, David would not be taking penalties at United regardless of his composure as we have Bruno taking them.

Penalty goals have the same value as 40 yard screamers, but I'd rather take a striker with 10 open play goals, than one with 20 penalties and 5 open play goals.

 

[Wing Attack Plan R]

I get what you're trying to say, but I think your proposed metric is even more misleading.

The average xg when a penalty is conceded in the PL is 0.06. So, often times, a penalty isn't even conceded in a position of imminent danger, and can be as much to do with poor defending as it is good attacking.

Non penalty xg is a far more valuable metric as it accounts solely for the player's ability to get into scoring positions. Statistics like touches in the box, and fouls won are far more reliable to indicate a player's likelihood to win a penalty.

And, while a young player taking penalties would give an indication of their maturity and composure, this could just be due to circumstance. For example, David would not be taking penalties at United regardless of his composure as we have Bruno taking them.

Penalty goals have the same value as 40 yard screamers, but I'd rather take a striker with 10 open play goals, than one with 20 penalties and 5 open play goals.

That's a good response, thank you.

 

[Valencia Shin Crosses]

Atalanta scored the third-most goals in Serie A last season, 66 goals, and Hojlund only scored 9 of them, in 32 appearances.

I hope I'm wrong, but I feel like we're going to pay 60 million or more for a kid who is going to score 5-10 goals per season for us.

We're going to look like idiots for having not gone all-out for Kane, I can feel it.

My god people there is no "going all out for Kane". None. He's not being sold to us unless it's at probably an almost 50% premium of what he's actually worth.

You might as well get upset about us not going "all out for Mbappe" too, because they both have about the same level of realism this summer

 

[Bojan Djordjic]

Come on buddy, people are allowed to give their opinion. This isn't the Rasmus Højlund circle jerk thread. Not everyone has to support this transfer, nor agree with you.

The facts are this: He is a young, raw striker with plenty of potential. He does not have a particularly good goal scoring record in a worse league, although his underlying stats are positive.

Anyone suggesting that we are overpaying for him is 100% right. He's not got a lot of professional football under his belt and what he has does not suggest generational talent yet. Will he be worth it in 2-3 years time? Maybe. Will he never realise his potential and be a 'flop'? Possibly

The irony isn't lost on me that you sign off complaining about everyone moaning, in a post moaning about the forum

I'd definitely like Hojlund as I think he's a lovely profile of a player. A big, fast brickhouse who moves well (although does like to make too many channel runs) and seems to have a fairly high technical floor. That being said, Nicholas Jackson has almost identical statistics and looks more complete (very good in build up and works hard in defence) and was picked up for €30mn by Chelsea. I think given there's still a lot of risk with a Hojlund purchase, 30-40mn would be a fair price to pay. It would go well beyond my personal risk appetite if the fee is €60mn. I think I would enter the fray for Brobbey/Balogun if that is the price.

 

[L1nk]

I'd definitely like Hojlund as I think he's a lovely profile of a player. A big, fast brickhouse who moves well (although does like to make too many channel runs) and seems to have a fairly high technical floor. That being said, Nicholas Jackson has almost identical statistics and looks more complete (very good in build up and works hard in defence) and was picked up for €30mn by Chelsea. I think given there's still a lot of risk with a Hojlund purchase, 30-40mn would be a fair price to pay. It would go well beyond my personal risk appetite if the fee is €60mn. I think I would enter the fray for Brobbey/Balogun if that is the price.

He was picked up for this much because he had a release clause

 

[beergod]

I think given there's still a lot of risk with a Hojlund purchase, 30-40mn would be a fair price to pay.

Atalanta paid ~17m for him last August, there's no way that's ever happening given that he's progressed since then.

 

[UnofficialDevil]

Most don't know this, but we were actually the first club, along with Barcelona, who discovered Vinicius Junior. The issue is getting a work permit, which isn't a problem in Spain. If there was no problems, you'd see a lot more Brazilians in Premier League playing for lower/mid-table clubs. It's not impossible, but more challenging than in Spain.

These "wonderkids" aren't necessarily wonderkids because they're from Brazil, either. Most don't live up to their potential. Brazilians tend to have great technique, which makes it's easy on the eyes when watching compilations of them on YouTube, but it's a whole different story translating their abilities to the football pitch in La Liga or Premier League.

Vitor Roque wasn't exactly an unknown either. All of the top clubs knew of him, and if I remember correctly, we were also scouting him. Let's wait and see how he develops before calling him a wonderkid. It is absolutely not a guarantee that he or Endrick will become great players.

Actually, that's a good answer.
But it seems like it isnt that difficult to obtain a work permit any more post Brexit for South american footballers.

https://worldfootballindex.com/2020...e-post-brexit-english-clubs-efl-libertadores/

I do think Endrick will become a top player. Most probably Roque too. No guarantee, though, I agree.

 

[roonster09]

Was I really? Or was I quoting an article that listed some strikers who were doing the business, those 3 making their list and Hojland nowhere to be found. If you prefer Hojland, my question is why. If you think he’s going to kick on, again, why?

I personally am not all that invested in this, but wanted to know why you think your assessment is better than the article writers’ assessment. My post was because people say if not Hojland then who, and after a brief Google search that article and those names appeared. I haven’t watched any of those players outside of YouTube highlights, but it seems odd to dismiss their stats out of hand.

Then the article author is really poor and should call out how many penalties each player scored, how many mins they played when he talks about goal scoring ability. Just sayin player 24 goals, wow that's some great record, compare that to player y, who scored only 10 goals is a shit way of comparing players.