I don't know if it counts as good news, but the increase in new cases in the UK today was "only" 17%.
Lower than the past few days.
Lower than the past few days.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
This is exactly the approach I think Europe and the US is generally taking and I'm laughing at the arrogance of it all to be honest.
The 'Sit tight, eat your vitamins and say your prayers' approach
It's a good thing zombie viruses aren't real.
Hmm, let's take a look at the death rates..
80+ years old | 14.8% |
70-79 years old | 8.0% |
60-69 years old | 3.6% |
Now let's take a look at the UK population in those age ranges..
80+ years old | 2,592,693 |
70-79 years old | 3,956,219 |
60-69 years old | 6,051,323 |
So that would suggest a rough death rate of..
80+ years old | 383,718 |
70-79 years old | 316,497 |
60-69 years old | 217,847 |
Now I think letting 918,062 UK citizens die might be pushing it a bit even for a Tory..
But how many people go hang gliding compared to how many will likely catch this virus?
Those death rates are providing 100% of those people actually get the disease, right?
I don't believe so. Which makes the whole toilet paper hoarding phenomenon even stupiderer.
On a side note, I had all these symptoms two weeks ago after a trip to London. But I got over it after a single night's sleep. Hopefully I got and survived, with nothing further to worry about.
Doctors get put on a pedestal as some kind of oracle of trustworthy opinion, but they're just people at the end of the day. Their opinions will come from experience and knowledge but also emotion and their general personality. There's also probably quite a few that think quite highly of themselves and might have experience with treating cases of viruses and disease but as far as I know that doesn't mean they're experts on pandemics.
This graph is very interesting. Does it suggest that if we do allow it to run unchecked through the population then this whole epidemic will be over in a shorter amount of time compared to if we implement crowd bans?
Yup. And if the government are serious about letting it just pass through the population you can maybe half that?
I think there was a stat saying about 10-15% suffer diarrhea. I could be on the number wrong though.
I don't believe so. Which makes the whole toilet paper hoarding phenomenon even stupiderer.
On a side note, I had all these symptoms two weeks ago after a trip to London. But I got over it after a single night's sleep. Hopefully I got and survived, with nothing further to worry about.
Particularly worrying for me as there are many direct flights to Lima daily from both major Spanish cities.
I dread to see how a private health care system in a 3rd world country can survive through this initial outbreak
Germany two deaths now.
https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-n...tish-supermarkets-move-to-avert-panic-buying/
Still can't find any info on how many have been tested in Germany.
https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-n...tish-supermarkets-move-to-avert-panic-buying/
Still can't find any info on how many have been tested in Germany.
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But you have many more people in UK who suffer from various comorbidities whom are various ages, those people will likely require ICU care. The country is usually stretched for beds as it is, never mind handling anywhere near amount of 1 million plus very poorly patients. Since the health care will be overwhelmed, the CFR will likely to go up further.
I agree that we could well see a total log-jam in our ICU departments to the point of thousands dying, but I still find it unlikely that 100% of the UK population will get the virus.
Those death rates are an average of plenty different places and situations. Your death rate in Macao is not the same as in Milan.
They are not "providing" nothing, they're just a picture. Subject to change at any given time.
If infection rates do no slow down dramatically I doubt those rates will remain like that.
Thing is, if you got the runs.. toilet paper is bloody useless anyway, you'll end up clogging the toilet, might aswell jump in the shower and give yourself a ol wet hand and its much easier and effective, idiots.
That's the real worry, and the reason I can't for the life of me understand why the government would even be considering something like this. Anything with such a high hospitalization rate for the elderly coming during winter where they're already straining NHS capacity to its limit just seems like a recipe for utter and complete disaster.
I'm just telling my family to keep social distancing, taking extra care about hygine ie using hand sanitiser frequently etc. Most of them are self employed and meet a lot of different people, handle goods, documents, money. I mean there's no middle ground there to be found they need to get used to doing it or they will get infected and then they'll infected our grandmother as they visit her every day.
Also trying persuade my grandmother to stay in the house whilst one of my family delivers all the necessities whilst this blows over isn't too much to ask. She's very frail, she knows her conditions and if she gets this virus she will be extremely compromised.
I agree, but please take a look at what I was quoting.
He was suggesting 900k people in the UK will die - which assumes that everybody here will get it.
I really don't get it either. To be fair the whole world is being reactive on this, governments and general population. Then, after this shit show we will have a big inquest into why so many people died. Won't bring them back though.
Exactly this. Apparently there's shy of 170,000 hospital beds in the UK total. Christ knows how many are actually available right now. I think it's fair to say not many. It would only need a small fraction of the population to be infected before it collapsed under the strain.
Do we even have the skills and grit to knock up extra hospitals in mere days like they've done in China? I would suggest not.
I think ignoring it is idiotic at best and grossly negligent at worst and by the end of next week the shit will have well and truly hit the fan. Of course I hope I'm wrong.
All that is mostly regulations, health & safety and human rights. Those factors were always going to make the western response different to the Chinese one.
I’m shitting it because my elderly mum back in the UK is frail as hell, trying to recover from a bad fall, and in and out of hospital regularly. Hearing the government sounding so relaxed about people like her potentially catching something that would probably kill her is filling me with a deep and very dark rage.
Also as we're going to be crashing and burning at the sametime as the rest of the world, we'll be competing for the same resources (new beds, hospital equipment etc). I don't believe, we manufacture much of that within the country
100% of population wont get it of course, but I think epidemiologists were modeling this outbreak and their prediction is as high as 60% in the first year - that's for the whole world. Forgive me, I can't remember where I heard about this, hence no source on this. In any case it's still a huge number of people if we were conservative and said 30% of the population got sick. If you do the math, that is a still very large number and it would still have dire consequences for everyone in the world.
Regarding government action, Hancock today said:
"The scientific advice is clear: acting too early creates its own risk. So we will do what is right to keep people safe. Guided by the science, we will act at the right time."
I'm assuming the risk he's referring to is that if heavy measures are brought in too early their effectiveness may have declined by the time the virus hits its peak (which is when you really want them in place)? Or is he referring to something else?
"The scientific advice is clear: acting too early creates its own risk. So we will do what is right to keep people safe. Guided by the science, we will act at the right time."
I'm assuming the risk he's referring to is that if heavy measures are brought in too early their effectiveness may have declined by the time the virus hits its peak (which is when you really want them in place)? Or is he referring to something else?
I'm in the same boat. I'm down to my last grandparent, having recently lost my grandfather, so I'm extra cautious with her. Trying to protect whom I have left I guess. She's very frail too, she has been suffering hypertension for years and has a myriad of other ailments so I dred her getting it. I really do fear the worst. I'm also getting a bit of a vibe that 'oh it's only the old people that are at risk so we carry on as normal' which I find a bit sickening really. That's someone's mother and father, grandmother and grandfather potentially. Also, really sorry about your mother, I really hope she gets better soon.
I suppose they can’t shut down everything indefinitely, so it’s logical to wait until the outbreak on the continent is at a high before going for extreme measures. It doesn’t explain why they aren’t seemingly doing any kind of testing/control at the borders though.
Thanks man, hope your grandma improves soon too.
So how is everyone responding to the virus threat?
Living life as normal or avoiding public transport and avoiding going to the pub / cinema / restaurants, concerts etc?
Living life as normal or avoiding public transport and avoiding going to the pub / cinema / restaurants, concerts etc?
I've now started avoiding any social interactions which aren't necessary and am working from home.
Yeah Chinese have a lot of man power and hence the quick mobilisation of staff. Obviously most of the materials needed are made in China. It would be physically impossible to undertake such task for UK government and it's citizens.
Thanks mate.
Same thing here, got allergic asthma under control and I use controller inhaler about once a week. Wondering if that condition can make my symptoms worse if I ever catch it.
And I guarantee you the blame will be put on the NHS.
It would be interesting to survey people in six months time, something along the lines of Q1: did you make significant attempts to increase personal hygiene according to government advice this year, or did you not bother? Q2: Do you think you contracted coronavirus? Logic and gut feeling says the extra washing should make a difference, but I'm not a hundred percent convinced.
It wouldn't measure whether non-washers had infected anyone else of course, that would be more complicated.
It wouldn't measure whether non-washers had infected anyone else of course, that would be more complicated.
Business as usual for me, although making more of a point to watch what I touch and wash after particularly at the gym. Off to the Spurs game Sunday and usual work/restaurants/cinema/pubs at weekends. Japan in a few weeks.
My company works in schools and our main contract confirmed today they’re expecting closure towards the Easter holidays. More so because they have to be seen doing something but the big wigs in the education sectors of the council think they’ll do this rather than cancel big events anytime soon. Economy to worry about.
This seems so speculative and weird. "Scientific advice" really says nothing.
"Scientific advice" needs to be dinstinguished from "advice from a scientist". Scientists also conjecture. A lot, obviously.