SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Mickeza]

What numbers are we talking about here Pogue? What 7 day numbers did they get it reduced from?
Were a lot of the big numbers due to those outbreaks in factories? And therefore bumping the numbers a little bit?

Edit: looking here I don’t see a seven day reverse?
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart...lative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=cases

Germany currently on highest 7 day average since April.

18th until 23rd August: 1390, 1510, 1707, 1427, 2035 new cases

11th until 16th September: 1484, 1630, 948, 927, 1407 new cases

2,035 is the highest daily increase since the ‘first wave’ which was on August 22nd. They don’t seem to be following the same trajectory as the rest of Europe. May not be going down but it appears to be pretty steady. Plus unlike the rest of us they’re allowing footy crowds back into stadiums at 20% capacity so they must think they have it under some measure of control. Looking at Germany is what’s giving me hope we may not be heading for another mini-lockdown in the UK so don’t take it away from me

 

[The Cat]

I am no expert by any means but to me it looks like the plan is herd protection as long as the hospitals aren't overwhelmed (which many said was the plan at the start).

Opening pubs is crazy if you actually want to keep it under 1 surely? And I love the pub as much as anyone.

To me if they really are serious about keeping cases down is shut pubs for now - buy cans and have your 6 thing in your garden or spaced out in your house numbers allowing.

Sorry to all pub staff and owners and this is from someone who spends nearly every day visiting my local.

I will accept all viewpoints to the opposite but we were going a better way until they reopened pubs.

 

[Tibs]

Do we think Gyms will be told to close in the coming weeks - or more restrictions on the number of people allowed in at once?

 

[Mickeza]

Do we think Gyms will be told to close in the coming weeks - or more restrictions on the number of people allowed in at once?

It’s possible I’m biased but surely it’s far easier to ensure social distancing at a gym than at a pub? Wear a mask, machines all 2 metres apart and hand sanitiser everywhere. Also far easier to test, track and trace as generally you have gym memberships so know who has been there as opposed to writing Thor when you enter the pub! Could potentially be an issue with gym classes I suppose.

 

[F-Red]

I am no expert by any means but to me it looks like the plan is herd protection as long as the hospitals aren't overwhelmed (which many said was the plan at the start).

The only plan all along is to make sure hospitals haven't been overwhelmed. There's no vaccine so herd immunity is the only path to resolve this until a vaccine is ready.

Opening pubs is crazy if you actually want to keep it under 1 surely? And I love the pub as much as anyone.

To me if they really are serious about keeping cases down is shut pubs for now - buy cans and have your 6 thing in your garden or spaced out in your house numbers allowing.

Sorry to all pub staff and owners and this is from someone who spends nearly every day visiting my local.

I will accept all viewpoints to the opposite but we were going a better way until they reopened pubs.

The data doesn't correlate to suggest that it's solely down to pubs. The activity of people enjoying themselves is probably why it gets as much flack and the easy area to point the finger at, but the data doesn't suggest that this is the sole reason as to why the UK case numbers are where they are.

Chris Whitty about a month ago did say that if we were to open schools again, then something would have to be closed in order to keep the R rate to a manageable level. All we've done is open the schools up (for the absolute right reasons) and unsurprisingly that's where the data correlates with the increase in cases. Which shouldn't be a surprise considering the interaction levels.

Something will have to close in order to keep the R rate manageable, pubs will have a higher chance of closure than other establishments.

It’s possible I’m biased but surely it’s far easier to ensure social distancing at a gym than at a pub? Wear a mask, machines all 2 metres apart and hand sanitiser everywhere. Also far easier to test, track and trace as generally you have gym memberships so know who has been there as opposed to writing Thor when you enter the pub! Could potentially be an issue with gym classes I suppose.

It's probably more difficult to manage than a pub, there's no physical exertion in a pub and nearly all gyms are indoors. Plus hand hygiene is paramount, which given the interaction of equipment at a gym makes it a difficult one to manage.

 

[golden_blunder]

Data a month old and also cumulative but shows how the virus spread across Ireland. No surprise Dublin is a hotspot

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub....oOgrYH-F6CeDCDSBEI0j4DmPe8cVWuMin8WVm6b5njxXc

 

[Mickeza]

It's probably more difficult to manage than a pub, there's no physical exertion in a pub and nearly all gyms are indoors. Plus hand hygiene is paramount, which given the interaction of equipment at a gym makes it a difficult one to manage.

I doubt that. You don’t get groups of 20 people on a crawl going from gym to gym pissed. Or packed into gyms like sardines as we’ve seen from some of the pictures where pubs haven’t been adhering to social distancing. Like I say possibly biased but I’d be astonished if gyms are more of a driver for transmission than pubs. I don’t see how groups of pissed people socially distance.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

18th until 23rd August: 1390, 1510, 1707, 1427, 2035 new cases

11th until 16th September: 1484, 1630, 948, 927, 1407 new cases

2,035 is the highest daily increase since the ‘first wave’ which was on August 22nd.

Couple of issues there, why do 5 day when reports are often higher on certain days? That’s why 7 day or 14 day is standard.

Your first set is Tues-Sun.
Your second set is Friday to Weds.
The dates are for 6 days but you’ve only post 5 days of numbers?

That 2035 seem an anomaly there, not a trend. Likely numbers stuck in system or one of those big factory outbreaks.

 

[F-Red]

I doubt that. You don’t get groups of 20 people on a crawl going from gym to gym pissed. Or packed into gyms like sardines as we’ve seen from some of the pictures where pubs haven’t been adhering to social distancing. Like I say possibly biased but I’d be astonished if gyms are more of a driver for transmission than pubs. I don’t see how groups of pissed people socially distance.

The discussion wasn't about whether gyms are more of a driver for transmission than pubs or any other activity. I've seen as much evidence of gyms and a lack of social distancing as I have with pubs, it really isn't down to the venue, it's down to the individuals within it. The difficulty with gyms is the amount of shared contact with equipment, and hand contact in a gym is far higher contact interaction than pubs or other areas/activities, which is why it was one of the last activities to open up originally.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I doubt that. You don’t get groups of 20 people on a crawl going from gym to gym pissed. Or packed into gyms like sardines as we’ve seen from some of the pictures where pubs haven’t been adhering to social distancing. Like I say possibly biased but I’d be astonished if gyms are more of a driver for transmission than pubs. I don’t see how groups of pissed people socially distance.

Worst case, you can always take up bouldering.

 

[jojojo]

How are Spain always hammered? Aside from pissed up tourists, what’s different?

I've been keeping tabs on Spain, but I don't claim to have anything profound to say. Early on, it came from the ski resorts but mostly hit the cities - Madrid and Barcelona in particular, and absolutely decimated the care homes. A hard lockdown (much tougher than we saw in the UK) brought the figures down and meant big chunks of the country had next to no cases.

Tourism is obviously an issue - but not perhaps the way it looks on facebook pub crawl brags from pissed up Brits - Spain has actually been quite tough on its hospitality sector, even after reopening. In any case the stag party mob are more likely to infect each other than the locals.

However, a lot of city dwellers head to the coast/countryside in summer. To stay with family, in second homes, long rentals, or (sometimes unofficial) camping/caravanning places. The kids spend the nights in parks drinking together. Massive mixing of communities really. Valencia has had to warn people not to eat paella/salad etc in the traditional way - with serving plates in the middle and everyone digging in.

It's noticeable that now the city dwellers have headed back to Madrid/Barcelona/Valencia etc the case numbers in the (Spanish second home type) resorts are already falling again. Of course the schools have reopened so we'll see what happens there. But I do have a feeling that the new wave was about internal tourism/movement, which is mostly over now. What happens next? Vamos a ver - but the cat may be out of the bag again, and in new places.

 

[Mickeza]

Couple of issues there, why do 5 day when reports are often higher on certain days? That’s why 7 day or 14 day is standard.

Your first set is Tues-Sun.
Your second set is Friday to Weds.
The dates are for 6 days but you’ve only post 5 days of numbers?

That 2035 seem an anomaly there, not a trend. Likely numbers stuck in system or one of those big factory outbreaks.

All fair points. They aren’t going up in the same way UK, France, Spain, Belgium, Czech Republic etc are though are they? That FT chart even shows it going up steadily for some time and then dropping. It seems to have started to rise again recently and is now just a touch higher than what it was before the drop. It could be testing/improvements in track and trace or a local outbreak somewhere? We’re only talking a 3.5% rise Saturday - Tuesday this week compared to last week.

Germany started their increase in cases before the UK and now compare the two. We’re breaking 3,000 every day even with test shortages and are likely to break the 4,000 barrier in the next week while Germany still haven’t breached the 2,000 barrier apart from that one instance 3 weeks ago which as you say was a possible anomaly. They definitely seem to be doing something far better than most of us.

Worst case, you can always take up bouldering.

Love how it says it’s the first study of its kind. Do you think there were like 8 other rival studies absolutely gutted they got there first with this news!?

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

All fair points. They aren’t going up in the same way UK, France, Spain, Belgium, Czech Republic etc are though are they?

Nope, and I don’t expect they will either. All the countries in the world doing best are the ones who have been best from the start with test and trace and Germany were always right up there.

 

[Mickeza]

Nope, and I don’t expect they will either. All the countries in the world doing best are the ones who have been best from the start with test and trace and Germany were always right up there.

But Boris says ours is world beating!

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Love how it says it’s the first study of its kind. Do you think there were like 8 other rival studies absolutely gutted they got there first with this news!?

As research goes, it’s pretty niche. I’m just glad bouldering is so popular with scientists and nerds. I can show that publication to my wife every time she starts rolling her eyes about me going to the bouldering gym.

 

[Hugh Jass]

What is the death rate from this virus? I saw an article about three months ago that put it at between 0.2 and 0.7 percent. Has it changed since?

We wont fully know until it is offically over.

Edit: Found this article: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2 Varying rate but around 0.8% average.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

But Boris says ours is world beating!

haha. Bozzer!

 

[11101]

The discussion wasn't about whether gyms are more of a driver for transmission than pubs or any other activity. I've seen as much evidence of gyms and a lack of social distancing as I have with pubs, it really isn't down to the venue, it's down to the individuals within it. The difficulty with gyms is the amount of shared contact with equipment, and hand contact in a gym is far higher contact interaction than pubs or other areas/activities, which is why it was one of the last activities to open up originally.

Gyms have been open in Italy for 4 months now with no problems. With proper precautions theyre much safer than pubs/clubs.

 

[One Night Only]

North East going on some sorta half arsed lockdown, closing pubs earlier is genius, just means everyone will goto the pub at the same time now

 

[Drifter]

Second lockdown would be 'disastrous' for the economy, Boris Johnson warns

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...warns/ar-BB196Zqs?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=mailsignout

 

[Ludens the Red]

It’s possible I’m biased but surely it’s far easier to ensure social distancing at a gym than at a pub? Wear a mask, machines all 2 metres apart and hand sanitiser everywhere. Also far easier to test, track and trace as generally you have gym memberships so know who has been there as opposed to writing Thor when you enter the pub! Could potentially be an issue with gym classes I suppose.

100%. In gyms nobody talks, as opposed to in a pub where people are shouting over each other, producing droplets of saliva constantly.
You’re in a gym for less time too. Pretty much every person I’ve seen at my gym has sprayed down their equipment after using it. Staff have been out and about cleaning constantly too. A lot of people also wear gloves. Having been to pubs too, I’ve barely seen any staff up and down cleaning. People are still being allowed to queue at the bar too.

 

[Sweet Square]

Ex director of WHO and works for the Lancet.

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[Tony Babangida]

This is a good short read in the NYT about how SARS-CoV-2 is mutating (slowly) and whether any of the current variants are associated with changes to virulence (no), transmissibility (debatable), or vaccine evasion (no).

The Coronavirus Is Mutating, and That’s Fine (So Far)

 

[hmchan]

So why is Taiwan able to do so well?

There are a few common similarities in Asian countries where people think they're doing well:

1. Very high compliance to masks.
2. Large testing capabilities.
3. Extensive track and trace.
4. Strict border control.
5. High level of self discipline.

Like I said earlier, some of these measures may not be applicable to all countries, especially at this stage of pandemic where the virus has been widespread in the society. I'm not sure about the situation in the west but it seems to me plenty are still travelling for fun? When you miss early intervention, herd immunity may probably be the best way to cope with the virus.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[Skills]

Nope, and I don’t expect they will either. All the countries in the world doing best are the ones who have been best from the start with test and trace and Germany were always right up there.

This. Our incompetence is staggering.


https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing

They got to 100k tests a day in the middle of May - so what the feck have they been doing since? Did they think that was all they needed?

 

[Berbaclass]

Ex director of WHO and works for the Lancet.

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We’re going to hell so bring your sunblock...

 

[Beans]

Cases back up to over 1k per day in Belgium, and unlike in July now it's spread over the whole country instead of a few infected cities. Seems like it'll come and go in these waves during all of autumn and probably winter too.

Deaths and hospitalizations are staying very low compared to March-May though, probably because we're testing more and because more of the persons infected are below 60. Don't have a clue whether that's a good sign or not, because if they don't take additional measures, sooner or later it's gonna spread to the 60+ population too and we're back to where we started.

The deaths are low because people are getting low viral loads thanks to the masks both parties are wearing, leading to mostly asymptomatic cases.

 

[Tony Babangida]

The deaths are low because people are getting low viral loads thanks to the masks both parties are wearing, leading to mostly asymptomatic cases.

This idea is interesting and warrants more investigation but far from validated as fact yet.

 

[hmchan]

This idea is interesting and warrants more investigation but far from validated as fact yet.

Which part? A mask can reduce the viral load one is exposed to? Or a smaller viral load produces fewer to no symptoms in patients? I think both points are pretty solid.

 

[rcoobc]

The deaths are low because people are getting low viral loads thanks to the masks both parties are wearing, leading to mostly asymptomatic cases.

This idea is interesting and warrants more investigation but far from validated as fact yet.

Which part? A mask can reduce the viral load one is exposed to? Or a smaller viral load produces fewer to no symptoms in patients? I think both points are pretty solid.

Probably that deaths are low BECAUSE of mask wearing. We have the same situation in the UK, where mask-wearing has been terrible.

I think the truth is different. It's partly due to viral loads being low (which itself is partly due to mask-wearing, but also just partly due to better social distancing in general) and partly due to a different demographic getting infected (mostly the young this time), and partly also due to simply a misunderstanding of how many true cases there really where before lockdown, and how many true cases there are now.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

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Another one of these articles, they seem to be popping up everywhere and are as silly as the articles in April & May calling Sweden a disaster and “cautionary tale”.

Tegnell himself has said it took “no lockdown” measures about a month longer than lockdown to get cases from those high levels to extremely low ones in comparison to UK, Belgium etc.
It might just be that Sweden’s rise will come a month after the others, but that said, they are confident the long term sustainable plan they have always been pushing will help keep numbers lower.

Once again, we won’t know until after the next months.

On a side note from what @Pogue Mahone was asking yesterday regarding Germany’s ability to keep cases stable, I was wondering, what are countries doing for sick pay around Europe?

How many days can you claim full pay on self certification?
Would be very interesting to know how the various countries have approached this?

@Penna @Stanley Road @redshaw

The US @Carolina Red, does it differ by state?

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

The deaths are low because people are getting low viral loads thanks to the masks both parties are wearing, leading to mostly asymptomatic cases.

Utter nonsense.

Deaths and hospitalisations are low because cases numbers are absolutely miles lower than the were in March/April and risk groups are no longer taken by surprise.

 

[rcoobc]

Utter nonsense.

Deaths and hospitalisations are low because cases numbers are absolutely miles lower than the were in March/April and risk groups are no longer taken by surprise.

That's the theory doing the rounds based on this paper

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913

 

[Lynty]

Pretty sure my kids have it. Some pretty severe symptoms and I've been in two minds to dial 999.

Can't get a test at all. Baffles me how they reduced testing sites knowing a second wave was going to hit

 

[Classical Mechanic]

On a side note from what @Pogue Mahone was asking yesterday regarding Germany’s ability to keep cases stable, I was wondering, what are countries doing for sick pay around Europe?

How many days can you claim full pay on self certification?
Would be very interesting to know how the various countries have approached this?

@Penna @Stanley Road @redshaw

The US @Carolina Red, does it differ by state?

This is a good point. In the UK studies have found that less that 20% of people with symptoms are isolating properly. SSP here is pretty bad. You get £98.95 a week so if you are stuggling financially then you are going to struggle. As far as I'm aware, there's no change in SSP for Covid in the UK.

 

[Rajma]

Pretty sure my kids have it. Some pretty severe symptoms and I've been in two minds to dial 999.

Can't get a test at all. Baffles me how they reduced testing sites knowing a second wave was going to hit

Feck. Hope the little ones get better soon.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

That's the theory doing the rounds based on this paper

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913

It’s a theory, nothing more.
There’s a current theory that there’s life on Mars & in the clouds of Venus.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

This is a good point. In the UK studies have found that less that 20% of people with symptoms are isolating properly. SSP here is pretty bad. You get £98.95 a week so if you are stuggling financially then you are going to struggle. As far as I'm aware, there's no change in SSP for Covid in the UK.

Wow, that’s pretty bad. And how many days on self certification? (No doctors note)

It’s 2 weeks on full pay here, paid by state, on self certification. We know work places are a huge point of spread so I think it’s important to know how countries are tackling this.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Wow, that’s pretty bad. And how many days on self certification? (No doctors note)

It’s 2 weeks on full pay here, paid by state, on self certification.

7 days self-cert generally, although you don't need a note at all for Covid. The other issue is the massive amount of private debt there is in the UK. Many people that earn decent wages are still living month to month because of their debt.