SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

If Andy Burnham, etc, rejects the move to Tier 3 for Manchester, does that mean it won’t happen, because the Government have said that it’s down to local government to enforce it?

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Which would imply that Germany are the exception, when other countries with similar problems, similar riches, different technology bases, different political objectives and different growth trajectories have performed similarly, as far as I can tell.

Aiming to be the best is sensible enough if the things that allowed the best to be that are achievable in a short period of time, or is part of a longer term political criticism, but suggesting that it is a critical failure despite being among the best of the rest is a bit...questionable.

No. I gave you an example of working. There are many more. But we only need one to discuss why ours is a horror show.

Germany is a half day drive away. They’re a political ally. They run on principally the same system as us. They have no natural advantage and close to identical climates, ability to spend, political clout, the works.

We are not among the best of the rest. What don’t you get? Are you just looking at numbers tested? Because every country that’s getting it right has not entered into a dick swinging contest advertising testing numbers. Total tested is POINTLESS.

Our testing is an absolute unmitigated disaster. Not a single element of it is working.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Which countries have done better?

Many. Germany. South Korea. Start with them and then work through the Atlas.

A shorter answer would be what countries have done worse. We have the highest death rate in Europe for a reason.

 

[Brwned]

No. I gave you an example of working. There are many more. But we only need one to discuss why ours is a horror show.

Germany is a half day drive away. They’re a political ally. They run on principally the same system as us. They have no natural advantage and close to identical climates, ability to spend, political clout, the works.

We are not among the best of the rest. What don’t you get? Are you just looking at numbers tested? Because every country that’s getting it right has not entered into a dick swinging contest advertising testing numbers. Total tested is POINTLESS.

Our testing is an absolute unmitigated disaster. Not a single element of it is working.

You're basically screaming at the wall here. You responded to this question: which countries have done better [than a 40% contact rate]. That's what he said, and it doesn't have anything to do with tests.

So, same question again, which countries are doing better at getting people to voluntarily give up a high number of contacts, in the tracing part of this test and trace system? What we know is that Taiwan is a benchmark, where they have fewer data protection rules and the government has more power to coerce that information from you. On average they give up 15 contacts. In Spain they get 3, in France they get just under 3, in the US they get just over 1. In the UK, they get 5. Nowhere near the benchmark, but that benchmark is set under different conditions, and better than comparable peers. Even Germany, as per the limited data I've seen.

In Germany, people said they would refuse to hand over names to contact tracers at double the rate of Britons, according to a poll by Imperial College London.

But I haven't followed it that closely, hence why I asked him who he was using as a benchmark for what the appropriate standard is, and who meets said standard. That's what I "don't get". Maybe if you spent more time reading what people said rather than shouting at a screen you'd find it a bit easier to understand people.

Many. Germany. South Korea. Start with them and then work through the Atlas.

A shorter answer would be what countries have done worse. We have the highest death rate in Europe for a reason.

They have done better at containing the virus, sure. But this is about your 40% figure contact rate quoted. What's the list of these many countries, and where's the evidence? I'm pretty sure the list of countries that have done better is not longer than the list that have done worse, in that specific issue, and the ones who have done better have the legislation in place to do so. Most people in Europe are fine with that concession, even in these times. Korea allow their privacy to be invaded in a way they themselves don't even like, but accept after the measures were forced through from MERS. They wouldn't have volunteered to do it now, in the way most of Europe would not volunteer to do it now, even with the health benefits.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

You're basically screaming at the wall here. You responded to this question: which countries have done better [than a 40% contact rate]. That's what he said, and it doesn't have anything to do with tests.

So, same question again, which countries are doing better at getting people to voluntarily give up a high number of contacts, in the tracing part of this test and trace system? What we know is that Taiwan is a benchmark, where they have fewer data protection rules and the government has more power to coerce that information from you. On average they give up 15 contacts. In Spain they get 3, in France they get just under 3, in the US they get just over 1. In the UK, they get 5. Nowhere near the benchmark, but that benchmark is set under different conditions, and better than comparable peers. Even Germany, as per the limited data I've seen.



But I haven't followed it that closely, hence why I asked him who he was using as a benchmark for what the appropriate standard is, and who meets said standard. That's what I "don't get". Maybe if you spent more time reading what people said rather than shouting at a screen you'd find it a bit easier to understand people.



They have done better at containing the virus, sure. But this is about your 40% figure contact rate quoted. What's the list of these many countries, and where's the evidence? I'm pretty sure the list of countries that have done better is not longer than the list that have done worse, in that specific issue, and the ones who have done better have the legislation in place to do so. Most people in Europe are fine with that concession, even in these times. Korea allow their privacy to be invaded in a way they themselves don't even like, but accept after the measures were forced through from MERS. They wouldn't have volunteered to do it now, in the way most of Europe would not volunteer to do it now, even with the health benefits.

Ironically, you don't need to look outside the country for 98%+ contact rates. Just look at instance where local public health officials are doing the contacting, rather than Serco running an expensive and incompotent national service.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...covid-rates-launch-own-test-and-trace-systems

And this is before we even delve into the UK covid app debacle. Compare that with other countries too.

I genuinely don't understand why you feel the need to defend the UK's catastrophically poor response to Covid. It fails by every metric.

Unless you can share some metrics where we are "World beating"?

 

[esmufc07]

Ironically, you don't need to look outside the country for 98%+ contact rates. Just look at instance where local public health officials are doing the contacting, rather than Serco running an expensive and incompotent national service.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...covid-rates-launch-own-test-and-trace-systems

And this is before we even delve into the UK covid app debacle. Compare that with other countries too.

I genuinely don't understand why you feel the need to defend the UK's catastrophically poor response to Covid. It fails by every metric.

Unless you can share some metrics where we are "World beating"?

The only thing we are world-beating at is sheer incompetence.

 

[Brwned]

Ironically, you don't need to look outside the country for 98%+ contact rates. Just look at instance where local public health officials are doing the contacting, rather than Serco running an expensive and incompotent national service.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...covid-rates-launch-own-test-and-trace-systems

And this is before we even delve into the UK covid app debacle. Compare that with other countries too.

I genuinely don't understand why you feel the need to defend the UK's catastrophically poor response to Covid. It fails by every metric.

Unless you can share some metrics where we are "World beating"?

You will find local areas in countries that outperform others, for a myriad of reasons, in the same way you will find "catastrophically poor" rates in almost all similar countries at a national level, for a different myriad of reasons. If it was so easy to scale up that performance level to an entire country, you'd see it almost everywhere you look, because they haven't all used the same rip off private companies. So let's stick with your original claim, rather than moving the goalposts. How many countries have done better on the specific metric you've cited, and where's the evidence?

I would be shocked if any of the UK's response was world beating. I do think their initial financial response was among the best, and markedly better than obvious peers, but whether that was the right decision in the long run is hard to know at this stage. There have been plenty of shocking failures on the public health front. I just don't see any evidence for the current fashionable criticism. I think it's more likely you were conned into believing that test and trace could perform miracles it couldn't, and there is increasing evidence from previous leading lights like Czech Republic that seem to indicate the success of the test and trace system is entirely contingent on the virus being managed at low levels. It cannot cause that, nor overturn it. Czech Republic's system went from "world-beating" to "embarrassing" very quickly, despite no changes to the actual system. That's quite hard to reconcile with the current criticism leveraged at the UK system.

It seems far more useful to me to recognise the limitations of the test and trace system, by putting it in an international context and comparing the performance, than by holding it to an impossible standard and then repeatedly claiming it's "an unmitigated disaster". Because then it allows national attention to refocus on actual practical measures, rather than consistently hanging on to this idea of the holy grail. People are using it as a get out of jail free card. If only these Serco bastards could do their jobs, I could do my job. And it's another excuse to stoke up the north-south divide. If only the national government did this one thing, we could succeed in stopping the virus with our own additional measures. Bullshit.

And yes, it is galling they paid a fortune to a company that has done a mediocre job, when we could have invested a lot less for our own organisation to do a mediocre job. But the idea that they could do an acceptable job, as per your standards, seems to be pure fantasy. And it might have been fantasy created by the government but that isn't an excuse to keep believing it now, in the absence of credible evidence. Rather than picking holes, what have you seen that contradicts this?

What we know is that Taiwan is a benchmark, where they have fewer data protection rules and the government has more power to coerce that information from you. On average they give up 15 contacts. In Spain they get 3, in France they get just under 3, in the US they get just over 1. In the UK, they get 5. Nowhere near the benchmark, but that benchmark is set under different conditions, and better than comparable peers. Even Germany, as per the limited data I've seen.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

You will find local areas in countries that outperform others, for a myriad of reasons, in the same way you will find "catastrophically poor" rates in almost all similar countries at a national level, for a different myriad of reasons. If it was so easy to scale up that performance level to an entire country, you'd see it almost everywhere you look, because they haven't all used the same rip off private companies. So let's stick with your original claim, rather than moving the goalposts. How many countries have done better on the specific metric you've cited, and where's the evidence?

I would be shocked if any of the UK's response was world beating. I do think their initial financial response was among the best, and markedly better than obvious peers, but whether that was the right decision in the long run is hard to know at this stage. There have been plenty of shocking failures on the public health front. I just don't see any evidence for the current fashionable criticism. I think it's more likely you were conned into believing that test and trace could perform miracles it couldn't, and there is increasing evidence from previous leading lights like Czech Republic that seem to indicate the success of the test and trace system is entirely contingent on the virus being managed at low levels. It cannot cause that, nor overturn it. Czech Republic's system went from "world-beating" to "embarrassing" very quickly, despite no changes to the actual system. That's quite hard to reconcile with the current criticism leveraged at the UK system.

It seems far more useful to me to recognise the limitations of the test and trace system, by putting it in an international context and comparing the performance, than by holding it to an impossible standard and then repeatedly claiming it's "an unmitigated disaster". Because then it allows national attention to refocus on actual practical measures, rather than consistently hanging on to this idea of the holy grail. People are using it as a get out of jail free card. If only these Serco bastards could do their jobs, I could do my job. And it's another excuse to stoke up the north-south divide. If only the national government did this one thing, we could succeed in stopping the virus with our own additional measures. Bullshit.

And yes, it is galling they paid a fortune to a company that has done a mediocre job, when we could have invested a lot less for our own organisation to do a mediocre job. But the idea that they could do an acceptable job, as per your standards, seems to be pure fantasy. And it might have been fantasy created by the government but that isn't an excuse to keep believing it now, in the absence of credible evidence. Rather than picking holes, what have you seen that contradicts this?

Not for the first time I’ve thought that the obsession with data protection at all costs in the EU causes more problems than it solves. Although never thought it would literally costs lives before the end of 2020. Although possibly a discussion for a different thread!

 

[Brwned]

Not for the first time I’ve thought that the obsession with data protection at all costs in the EU causes more problems than it solves. Although never thought it would literally costs lives before the end of 2020. Although possibly a discussion for a different thread!

Yeah, I've not given a lot of thought to it myself but it's definitely a contributing factor in the contact tracing process. As much because of the legal requirements as it is because of general attitudes to data privacy, and what it's worth sacrificing for. I've got a survey running that briefly touches on the subject and it seems to me that attitudes are simultaneously resolute, and largely inconsistent.

Not only have the vast majority of folks (75%+) not signed up to a contact tracing app in the UK and US*, but only 1 in 4 intend to get it at some point. Less than 1/2 would support a government mandate to use it and only 1 in 3 would use one of their employers asked them to. So it's pretty firm across the board, people don't want it, and while that's tempered by how personally worried people are about the virus, even among those who are "extremely worried" about their family catching it, only a minority would consider getting it.

And the biggest barriers to getting it are concerns about data privacy: data breaches, Apple and Google using it to target ads at them, location data collection not really being "private", the government using it to monitor and control the population. It's none of that practical stuff about battery usage, being legally responsible to self-isolate or being required to give their friends' details - they're still concerns for a majority, but comparatively smaller.

It will be an inflection point for data privacy discussions because it's clear that the data here is materially useful on an issue that most people consider very important, and the practical barriers to providing that data are relatively tiny, but huge numbers are opting out. That can't be ignored.

Then again, this is why big companies have created these impossible contracts-within-contracts and used all kinds of techniques to compel us to give up data we object to. That's not news to them.

Worth giving this book a read for the much darker side to that story, though. There is good reason for society to be worried about how these impossibly big organisations use these violations of privacy against us, and where it could lead. There's a lot of jargon and it's a bit too dense, and because it's a polemic it does over-reach a bit, but it's an incredibly thorough piece of work on something that likely will play a definitive role in the future of modern society.

*only available in a few states for now, if we're talking about contact tracing app failures

 

[Bosws87]

The lack of understanding of technology is half the battle, the amount of people that won't download the NHS App as its "tracking" them.

If they actually looked into it and could understand how it works or even comb through the source code they might be less sceptical.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

You will find local areas in countries that outperform others, for a myriad of reasons, in the same way you will find "catastrophically poor" rates in almost all similar countries at a national level, for a different myriad of reasons. If it was so easy to scale up that performance level to an entire country, you'd see it almost everywhere you look, because they haven't all used the same rip off private companies. So let's stick with your original claim, rather than moving the goalposts. How many countries have done better on the specific metric you've cited, and where's the evidence?

I would be shocked if any of the UK's response was world beating. I do think their initial financial response was among the best, and markedly better than obvious peers, but whether that was the right decision in the long run is hard to know at this stage. There have been plenty of shocking failures on the public health front. I just don't see any evidence for the current fashionable criticism. I think it's more likely you were conned into believing that test and trace could perform miracles it couldn't, and there is increasing evidence from previous leading lights like Czech Republic that seem to indicate the success of the test and trace system is entirely contingent on the virus being managed at low levels. It cannot cause that, nor overturn it. Czech Republic's system went from "world-beating" to "embarrassing" very quickly, despite no changes to the actual system. That's quite hard to reconcile with the current criticism leveraged at the UK system.

It seems far more useful to me to recognise the limitations of the test and trace system, by putting it in an international context and comparing the performance, than by holding it to an impossible standard and then repeatedly claiming it's "an unmitigated disaster". Because then it allows national attention to refocus on actual practical measures, rather than consistently hanging on to this idea of the holy grail. People are using it as a get out of jail free card. If only these Serco bastards could do their jobs, I could do my job. And it's another excuse to stoke up the north-south divide. If only the national government did this one thing, we could succeed in stopping the virus with our own additional measures. Bullshit.

And yes, it is galling they paid a fortune to a company that has done a mediocre job, when we could have invested a lot less for our own organisation to do a mediocre job. But the idea that they could do an acceptable job, as per your standards, seems to be pure fantasy. And it might have been fantasy created by the government but that isn't an excuse to keep believing it now, in the absence of credible evidence. Rather than picking holes, what have you seen that contradicts this?

The government set a target of 80% contact rate and our scientists said we need to achieve that 80% for it to be effective. That should be the minimum benchmark.

You say we could have paid our own
organisation to do a "mediocre job". Yet I've given you evidence of public health achieving 98% contact rate vs Serco at 40%. If both 98% and 40% are defined as mediocre by you then I don't know where to start. The decision to use Serco was a massive £12bn mistake.

If there are large variations in local area for a "myriad of reasons", then maybe the project should be managed locally by health organisations that understand the area?

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

@Brwned

Our testing is shot. I got my result back today. 5 days. Result? Inconclusive.

I have been isolating with my partner for those 5 days.

My last outing was to a pub on Saturday. All four of us checked in using the App.

I advised my two friends. One is a builder and can’t work from home. But he rode to work this week instead of taking the tube, wore a mask at work and advised the other two people on site of his situation. His partner worked from home this week.

The App hasn’t alerted any of them that they’ve spent time with someone that has logged two of three symptoms. I can’t log an inconclusive test result for some reason.

This is 5 days. We’re all like minded and affluent individuals so I don’t think the impact is too bad. But what if all four of us had a job that meant we had to work with others?

This is not anecdotal evidence. This is evidencing example. There are countless stories like this.

You seem to be fixated on the numbers and percentages and who’s doing better.

The absolute core fundamentals of our system are broken. There are no examples of this System working for the majority. Fcuk loads of people are dead. The devil does not need an advocate here.

I’m not shouting at a wall, I’m pissed off. Everyone should be. The people we trust to look after society have failed us. Looking for cracks of daylight as we continue to be covered in an ever increasing pile of rubble is not helpful to anyone.

You’re suggesting that we support and buy into a narrative that is ‘Some are doing worse, few are doing better’.

Fcuk. That.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

@Brwned

Our testing is shot. I got my result back today. 5 days. Result? Inconclusive.

I have been isolating with my partner for those 5 days.

My last outing was to a pub on Saturday. All four of us checked in using the App.

I advised my two friends. One is a builder and can’t work from home. But he rode to work this week instead of taking the tube, wore a mask at work and advised the other two people on site of his situation. His partner worked from home this week.

The App hasn’t alerted any of them that they’ve spent time with someone that has logged two of three symptoms. I can’t log an inconclusive test result for some reason.

This is 5 days. We’re all like minded and affluent individuals so I don’t think the impact is too bad. But what if all four of us had a job that meant we had to work with others?

This is not anecdotal evidence. This is evidencing example. There are countless stories like this.

You seem to be fixated on the numbers and percentages and who’s doing better.

The absolute core fundamentals of our system are broken. There are no examples of this System working for the majority. Fcuk loads of people are dead. The devil does not need an advocate here.

I’m not shouting at a wall, I’m pissed off. Everyone should be. The people we trust to look after society have failed us. Looking for cracks of daylight as we continue to be covered in an ever increasing pile of rubble is not helpful to anyone.

You’re suggesting that we support and buy into a narrative that is ‘Some are doing worse, few are doing better’.

Fcuk. That.

@Brwned
I can validate that. My office colleague tested positive 6 days ago.

He spoke to test and trace 6 days ago but no one I work with has been contacted by them yet. Luckily we have all self isolated because our colleague told us.

I had symptoms but luckily I tested negative, so guess it was a cold or flu in my case.

 

[ThierryHenry]

Hopefully she won't be mauled by a dog in the interim

This was the laugh I needed. Going through this thread puts you in an unrelentingly bleak mood.

 

[Sarni]

132 dead yesterday. Over 500 total this week. All ICUs across the country are full, in some areas if you have heart attack you are dead as they won't even attempt to help you anymore as they don't have ambulances.

 

[11101]

@Brwned

Our testing is shot. I got my result back today. 5 days. Result? Inconclusive.

I have been isolating with my partner for those 5 days.

My last outing was to a pub on Saturday. All four of us checked in using the App.

I advised my two friends. One is a builder and can’t work from home. But he rode to work this week instead of taking the tube, wore a mask at work and advised the other two people on site of his situation. His partner worked from home this week.

The App hasn’t alerted any of them that they’ve spent time with someone that has logged two of three symptoms. I can’t log an inconclusive test result for some reason.

This is 5 days. We’re all like minded and affluent individuals so I don’t think the impact is too bad. But what if all four of us had a job that meant we had to work with others?

This is not anecdotal evidence. This is evidencing example. There are countless stories like this.

You seem to be fixated on the numbers and percentages and who’s doing better.

The absolute core fundamentals of our system are broken. There are no examples of this System working for the majority. Fcuk loads of people are dead. The devil does not need an advocate here.

I’m not shouting at a wall, I’m pissed off. Everyone should be. The people we trust to look after society have failed us. Looking for cracks of daylight as we continue to be covered in an ever increasing pile of rubble is not helpful to anyone.

You’re suggesting that we support and buy into a narrative that is ‘Some are doing worse, few are doing better’.

Fcuk. That.

I have lots of friends with similar stories. I cant fathom how people think the UK is doing well with all this. It's a complete mess of a system. I saw the UK is bragging that 1/3 of tests are now getting results within 24 hours. In Italy I can get a test any time I like and the results will be back in a couple of hours at most. Same in Switzerland. Both countries have had functioning tracking apps for months.

I just arrived into Heathrow airport, got squashed onto a bus from the plane (thanks BA) and nobody stopped me or asked anything about where I'd been or whether I had done the contact form. I walked straight out of the airport. I know it wont be like that when I fly back to Milan next week.

 

[Brwned]

The government set a target of 80% contact rate and our scientists said we need to achieve that 80% for it to be effective. That should be the minimum benchmark.

You say we could have paid our own
organisation to do a "mediocre job". Yet I've given you evidence of public health achieving 98% contact rate vs Serco at 40%. If both 98% and 40% are defined as mediocre by you then I don't know where to start. The decision to use Serco was a massive £12bn mistake.

If there are large variations in local area for a "myriad of reasons", then maybe the project should be managed locally by health organisations that understand the area?

Man, there's a reason why you haven't provided the evidence for your initial claim, the only claim I've ever challenged of yours. That many other countries are doing contact tracing better, or the list of countries doing it better is longer than the list of countries doing it worse. The evidence does not exist. And there's a reason for that, too. Ignoring that reason only serves to amplify political rhetoric and distract from practical solutions.

@Brwned

Our testing is shot. I got my result back today. 5 days. Result? Inconclusive.

I have been isolating with my partner for those 5 days.

My last outing was to a pub on Saturday. All four of us checked in using the App.

I advised my two friends. One is a builder and can’t work from home. But he rode to work this week instead of taking the tube, wore a mask at work and advised the other two people on site of his situation. His partner worked from home this week.

The App hasn’t alerted any of them that they’ve spent time with someone that has logged two of three symptoms. I can’t log an inconclusive test result for some reason.

This is 5 days. We’re all like minded and affluent individuals so I don’t think the impact is too bad. But what if all four of us had a job that meant we had to work with others?

This is not anecdotal evidence. This is evidencing example. There are countless stories like this.

You seem to be fixated on the numbers and percentages and who’s doing better.

The absolute core fundamentals of our system are broken. There are no examples of this System working for the majority. Fcuk loads of people are dead. The devil does not need an advocate here.

I’m not shouting at a wall, I’m pissed off. Everyone should be. The people we trust to look after society have failed us. Looking for cracks of daylight as we continue to be covered in an ever increasing pile of rubble is not helpful to anyone.

You’re suggesting that we support and buy into a narrative that is ‘Some are doing worse, few are doing better’.

Fcuk. That.

That's not what I've said. I'll put it in a single sentence for you.

If you consider this system to be a failure, while the evidence repeatedly demonstrates that most countries are in a similar situation despite a wide range of circumstances, then it is more likely that the system cannot work in the way you expect it to, rather than it being something that will change if we just execute better.

I'm not saying you shouldn't be angry, I'm saying there's better things to be angry about.

 

[onemanarmy]

132 dead yesterday. Over 500 total this week. All ICUs across the country are full, in some areas if you have heart attack you are dead as they won't even attempt to help you anymore as they don't have ambulances.

Grim.

 

[Brwned]

@Brwned
I can validate that. My office colleague tested positive 6 days ago.

He spoke to test and trace 6 days ago but no one I work with has been contacted by them yet. Luckily we have all self isolated because our colleague told us.

I had symptoms but luckily I tested negative, so guess it was a cold or flu in my case.

Yes, that's a feature of the pandemic being out of control in your locality, not a feature of the system. This is in the Czech Republic last week.

The track-and-trace system has struggled to keep up. Authorities are taking days - sometimes 14 - to contact people who might have come into contact with an infected person. Its helplines are permanently engaged,

At the start of the pandemic they were praised for having so few cases you "couldn't even call it an epidemic", and the contact tracing system was seen as key to keeping it that way. Then things got out of control.

On the tracing side of things specifically, they were one of Europe's front-runners.

But it is the Czech Republic that leads the pack when it comes to “fast-track” COVID-19 measures.

The country was one of the first EU member states to declare a state of emergency, on March 12. And only a week later, it became the first EU country to make it mandatory for everyone to wear face masks in public.

The Czech tech sector was also quick to act. In mid-March, the country’s largest search engine, Seznam, introduced a coronavirus tracing feature on its geolocation app, Maps.cz. With a user’s permission, it draws on location data to inform people if they have crossed paths with anyone who has tested positive.

A month later, the Czech Health Ministry released a Bluetooth-based social tracing app known as eRouska (eMask). The app anonymously detects pairings among different devices on which the app has been installed. Similar technology is now being developed all across Europe.

The app is integrated into a more complex solution called the Smart Quarantine, which combines data from cell phones and payment cards. With a user’s permission, local hygiene stations can use this data to isolate individuals who have come into contact with infected people.

Jan Kulveit, a senior researcher at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University, is one of the two main strategists for the system developed by Covid19.cz, a group of Czech tech companies and IT enthusiasts working on tech-based solutions out of the current crisis. He said developing an app is the easy part.

“The tricky part is to ensure that these technical solutions are somehow integrated into a system that local hygiene stations can obtain information from, and then act upon,” he said in a phone interview.

“In this sense, the Czech Republic is a few weeks ahead of Germany and most other European countries. We’re actually currently in contact with several countries who expressed their interest in our model.”

I am not saying the test and trace system is working well now in the UK. I'm saying the contact tracing aspect of the system cannot work well under these conditions. The problem is there are too many cases in your area, every day, for those people to process all of those contacts. It is physically impossible with the current numbers, no systematic updates would change that, the financial costs to resolve that would be so absurd, and the recruitment and training lead times would be so impractical, that it will always be that way.

What we should be holding the government accountable for is letting cases get out of control. Contact tracing plays a minor role in preventing that, no matter where you look in the West, and no role in solving that after it happens. It will be the same in Italy if they lose control again, and contact tracing will not stop that from happening. It is the same in every other country experiencing a surge now, and that's a lot. Germany is an absolute exception, and they haven't experienced that problem. That is not because of their contact tracing system.

Testing is different. There is more of a disparity there, and it is more important, and the UK were much worse at it in the beginning and are still not very good at it now. They are very far from the worst, and the desire to call the UK's current testing situation an embarrassment with no recognition for how that sounds in other countries who are working with an inferior system, is more than a little insensitive IMO.

Maybe it's worth having a listen to what @Sarni's country are experiencing right now. It is not uncommon for people in the UK to think their problems are more important, or more severe, than others, and that attitude stems from something important that features in all kinds of problems in how the UK, as both a government and a society, have responded to it. But that wasn't the point you made, nor the one I challenged.

 

[massi83]

132 dead yesterday. Over 500 total this week. All ICUs across the country are full, in some areas if you have heart attack you are dead as they won't even attempt to help you anymore as they don't have ambulances.

Yeah, but @Hanks scored with Leeds lass.

 

[massi83]

@Brwned about Czech: I was there in early March and mid July as I see a czech girl at times. The reason why they did well in the first wave was because they acted early. Early lockdown, travel restrictions, mask rules from the start. Nothing to do with test and trace.

Then after coming out of lockdown the mood in the country was that "we beat covid" which was ridiculous of course. And it didn't help that billionaire PM didn't listen to the health officials.

Having been spared in the first wave they didn’t think it could hit them like this. Lacking that experience they would have needed strong leadership in taking action already about 1-2 months ago. Now they test positive about 30 % of the time. Test and trace is meaningless at that point.

 

[Brwned]

@Brwned about Czech: I was there in early March and mid July as I see a czech girl at times. The reason why they did well in the first wave was because they acted early. Early lockdown, travel restrictions, mask rules from the start. Nothing to do with test and trace.

Then after coming out of lockdown the mood in the country was that "we beat covid" which was ridiculous of course. And it didn't help that billionaire PM didn't listen to the health officials.

Having been spared in the first wave they didn’t think it could hit them like this. Lacking that experience they would have needed strong leadership in taking action already about 1-2 months ago. Now they test positive about 30 % of the time. Test and trace is meaningless at that point.

Yes I agree.

I was there the day they were closing borders, when they were praised for their proactive action. But there was the suggestion that contact tracing played a role in keeping things under control, while people were acting more freely than most countries, and after being out of lockdown for a longer period. The restrictions disappeared but the cases didn't explode. It's when people were struggling to find good explanations for countries that were "handling this". And given they started early on the tech, it was plausible that it played a role in keeping a lid on things.

In the end the central Europeans were lucky in the first wave and less lucky in the second wave. Government restrictions mitigate that but less than people wanted to believe first time round, IMO. They already had evidence that the citizens had the same compliance issues every other country has had, in the right conditions. They just managed to avoid them for a while.

 

[Sarni]

Yeah, but @Hanks scored with Leeds lass.

Well it's not like people in Poland treat this seriously either. They all think it's people dying from other causes and doctors signing them off as covid to get more money and chip us with a vaccine.

 

[Tibs]

The problem all sides have had, is to slow the spread the extra measures haven't been in place, or ignored, because the situation wasn't that bad.

Now the problems all sides have, is it is quickly getting out of hand, and they don't know what to do, and even they got a plan together, would they have the will to implement it?

I know it's been said a million times but it comes down to terrible leadership - and maybe we as a country deserve it for electing this cnut, I mean even now, he'd still probably win looking at the polls.

But anyway, my fear now, is that a circuit breaker will happen, but, it will be a super soft version when lots of things remain open. Needs to be strict as feck, takea 2 week hit, and then let Retail keep the economy going until mid-Jan

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

@Brwned

Our testing is shot. I got my result back today. 5 days. Result? Inconclusive.

I have been isolating with my partner for those 5 days.

My last outing was to a pub on Saturday. All four of us checked in using the App.

I advised my two friends. One is a builder and can’t work from home. But he rode to work this week instead of taking the tube, wore a mask at work and advised the other two people on site of his situation. His partner worked from home this week.

The App hasn’t alerted any of them that they’ve spent time with someone that has logged two of three symptoms. I can’t log an inconclusive test result for some reason.

This is 5 days. We’re all like minded and affluent individuals so I don’t think the impact is too bad. But what if all four of us had a job that meant we had to work with others?

This is not anecdotal evidence. This is evidencing example. There are countless stories like this.

You seem to be fixated on the numbers and percentages and who’s doing better.

The absolute core fundamentals of our system are broken. There are no examples of this System working for the majority. Fcuk loads of people are dead. The devil does not need an advocate here.

I’m not shouting at a wall, I’m pissed off. Everyone should be. The people we trust to look after society have failed us. Looking for cracks of daylight as we continue to be covered in an ever increasing pile of rubble is not helpful to anyone.

You’re suggesting that we support and buy into a narrative that is ‘Some are doing worse, few are doing better’.

Fcuk. That.

Shouldn’t your mate be self isolating at home instead of working at the site? Surely he doesn’t need an app to tell him that?

 

[711]

Shouldn’t your mate be self isolating at home instead of working at the site? Surely he doesn’t need an app to tell him that?

The NHS website says:

If you think you've been in contact with someone who has coronavirus, but you do not have symptoms and have not been told to self-isolate, continue to follow social distancing advice.

So in the absence of symptoms it seems he doesn't have to self isolate, rightly or wrongly.

 

[Bosws87]

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Whole thing is beyond a joke, should be made to walk the people in charge.

 

[Shane88]

Disappointed by how shit we seem to be doing in Ireland. NPHET recommending 6 weeks in level 5 lockdown today.

I'm sure there will be a compromise but it's still more restrictions.

 

[acnumber9]

Tweet

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Whole thing is beyond a joke, should be made to walk the people in charge.

I know there’s bigger issues at hand but mayors of cities shouldn’t be saying things like “more safer.”

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

@Brwned

Mate, we’ve had 10 months.

You’ve accused me of shouting at a wall.

I fully expect a system that can scale. Ours doesn’t work. Let alone scale.

Yes some systems can’t meet capacity. Yes there will be resistance to adoption. Yes there will be mistakes.

But Our government tells everyone we have a world leading test, track and trace service. That we have the capacity to test 350,000 a day.

The reality is that Our testing system is on its knees at 5 figure outputs. Has Throttled access points. It’s late. Costs more than most of Europe’s system COMBINED. It’s an abject failure.

Pointing out small countries inability to scale is foolhardy.

My brother in law lives in Baden-Wuttenburg and has a lot of friends in Bavaria. Their lived experience in Germany is night and day from us

Some regions have had some issues. But one regions issues don’t feck up the whole country because they’re decentralised.

You keep suggesting that other countries contract tracing systems don’t work. You’re using stats like number of contacts contacted. You’re missing out the key qualifier of time. Every day counts. Numbers get big so damn quick.

25% of test results inside 24 hours, coupled with an ill-functioning app and poor contact tracing.

vs

75% of test results inside 24 hours, coupled to a functioning app and functioning contact tracing.

Those Two scenarios lead to wildly different outcomes.

We are still trumpeting number of tests. Why? Raise the threshold to get a test in order to lower the burden on labs, in order to return results faster. In order to start contact tracing sooner.

The government is still talking about getting to half a million tests a day. There’s no fecking point in that. They chase headlines. We can’t process that level of test output. If we manage to get to that number we can’t run a successful contact tracing system.

It’s a public health crisis, you’re often borrowing from Peter to pay Paul. But why do we as a country not have the humility to just copy off the brightest kids in class. You know half the cabinet has done that for their whole life.

You and I aren’t really at odds. I just object to any kind of defence of £12 Billion resulting in this. Better performing countries are yet to push through £1 Billion in expenditure.

Ach, burn it all down.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Shouldn’t your mate be self isolating at home instead of working at the site? Surely he doesn’t need an app to tell him that?

You want him to take a financial hit because he sat at a pub table with me for two hours and I have a fever and a cough?

Me too.

But only after the government has tested me, given me a positive test inside a day and communicated that to him. Then financially supported him.

Like Fcuk are people going to voluntarily give up real money for this government. Never happening.

Disclaimer : This is obviously different by case. If he was working as a professional hugger it would be very different to justify.

 

[Brwned]

@Brwned

Mate, we’ve had 10 months.

You’ve accused me of shouting at a wall.

I fully expect a system that can scale. Ours doesn’t work. Let alone scale.

Yes some systems can’t meet capacity. Yes there will be resistance to adoption. Yes there will be mistakes.

But Our government tells everyone we have a world leading test, track and trace service. That we have the capacity to test 350,000 a day.

The reality is that Our testing system is on its knees at 5 figure outputs. Has Throttled access points. It’s late. Costs more than most of Europe’s system COMBINED. It’s an abject failure.

Pointing out small countries inability to scale is foolhardy.

My brother in law lives in Baden-Wuttenburg and has a lot of friends in Bavaria. Their lived experience in Germany is night and day from us

Some regions have had some issues. But one regions issues don’t feck up the whole country because they’re decentralised.

You keep suggesting that other countries contract tracing systems don’t work. You’re using stats like number of contacts contacted. You’re missing out the key qualifier of time. Every day counts. Numbers get big so damn quick.

25% of test results inside 24 hours, coupled with an ill-functioning app and poor contact tracing.

vs

75% of test results inside 24 hours, coupled to a functioning app and functioning contact tracing.

Those Two scenarios lead to wildly different outcomes.

We are still trumpeting number of tests. Why? Raise the threshold to get a test in order to lower the burden on labs, in order to return results faster. In order to start contact tracing sooner.

The government is still talking about getting to half a million tests a day. There’s no fecking point in that. They chase headlines. We can’t process that level of test output. If we manage to get to that number we can’t run a successful contact tracing system.

It’s a public health crisis, you’re often borrowing from Peter to pay Paul. But why do we as a country not have the humility to just copy off the brightest kids in class. You know half the cabinet has done that for their whole life.

You and I aren’t really at odds. I just object to any kind of defence of £12 Billion resulting in this. Better performing countries are yet to push through £1 Billion in expenditure.

Ach, burn it all down.

I am not defending the system. The system doesn't work. There is no evidence that any tracing system works when the virus spread this much. Demanding it does work seems kind of pointless if it cannot possibly work under those conditions, and there is no evidence that it has worked in France, Italy, Spain and various other countries of the same size, with the same conditions. It has also failed in smaller countries, with both better conditions and worse conditions. And because we have limited resources and limited time, it is not just pointless but counterproductive and harmful.

The only suggested exception to that is Germany, but Germany haven't had case levels ever reach that level, so we don't know how they would respond once they pass whatever that threshold is. They have been exceptional in other aspects, so it's possible they could be here too. But if it is impossible to recreate their conditions in the midst of a pandemic, then it serves only as a reminder for what we should aim for in terms of preparedness next time, not a good role model for now. In that scenario, the UK would just have to accept they're worse, and will always be worse in this pandemic, no amount of money or expert execution could change that. But British exceptionalism makes that a difficult pill to swallow.

But no-one has provided the evidence that Germany are better prepared for contact tracing if it reaches that level. I've already provided a study that hints that they're not, and people just glide right by it, because it doesn't fit their narrative. I would be keen to see some evidence that presents a different side to that story.

It is unquestionable that their testing regime is better than the UK's, and all of their peers. That doesn't in any way mean that their tracing system is better than all of their peers. It just means they are better supported. It is a big part of the reason why they haven't had to deal with the overwhelming situation the "hopeless" UK tracing system has had to contend with. And that's what this conversation was about. They are two components of a system that work together, but they're different components.

But there's no point in talking past each other, so I'll leave it there.

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

The NHS website says:

If you think you've been in contact with someone who has coronavirus, but you do not have symptoms and have not been told to self-isolate, continue to follow social distancing advice.

So in the absence of symptoms it seems he doesn't have to self isolate, rightly or wrongly.

Hmm OK, what’s the point of the track and trace app then because everyone should be social distancing anyway?

 

[jeff_goldblum]

In the rest of Europe does each country have its own track and trace system? Because if so they're likely compromised in the same way the UK and ROI systems are in Ireland. People who live on one side of a border will have contacts on either side (maybe they work, shop, socialise etc. on the other side of the border to where they live) but when they get a positive test on their country's system only their contacts on that side of the border get told.

Mainland Britain doesn't have a bunch of untraceable people popping over every day to compromise the system.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

@Brwned about Czech: I was there in early March and mid July as I see a czech girl at times. The reason why they did well in the first wave was because they acted early. Early lockdown, travel restrictions, mask rules from the start. Nothing to do with test and trace.

Then after coming out of lockdown the mood in the country was that "we beat covid" which was ridiculous of course. And it didn't help that billionaire PM didn't listen to the health officials.

Having been spared in the first wave they didn’t think it could hit them like this. Lacking that experience they would have needed strong leadership in taking action already about 1-2 months ago. Now they test positive about 30 % of the time. Test and trace is meaningless at that point.

I'm frequently in Prague/the Czech Republic (last time in mid September) so I could see the development in stages. The one thing I didn't understand is why they lifted the mandatory mask rule in supermarkets and public transport (apart from the metro). That really sent the wrong signal.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

132 dead yesterday. Over 500 total this week. All ICUs across the country are full, in some areas if you have heart attack you are dead as they won't even attempt to help you anymore as they don't have ambulances.

Is that definitely true? Sounds horrific. How on earth are the “just a flu” cretins squaring that with their beliefs?

 

[massi83]

I'm frequently in Prague/the Czech Republic (last time in mid September) so I could see the development in stages. The one thing I didn't understand is why they lifted the mandatory mask rule in supermarkets and public transport (apart from the metro). That really sent the wrong signal.

Yes. It was very easy to see that they would end up in this situation. Should have started to act already 6 weeks ago. And problem for them is, that it is the whole country with similar figures, not just Prague.

 

[Sarni]

Is that definitely true? Sounds horrific. How on earth are the “just a flu” cretins squaring that with their beliefs?

Apparently it is but fortunately I haven't been able to verify. Lots of noises from medical staff saying similar things though.

They think it's conspiracy to depopulate Earth by not providing people with medical assistance and explaining that with false pandemic. Morons.

 

[711]

Hmm OK, what’s the point of the track and trace app then because everyone should be social distancing anyway?

Nobody knows. And I don't know in this particular case whether the advice from the app would have been any different, because virtually no one has ever had any advice anyway.

I think the phrase is 'hope that helps'.

 

[golden_blunder]

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Whole thing is beyond a joke, should be made to walk the people in charge.

Soon we will have non-league restriction tables